nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2014‒10‒13
twelve papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Situation in Russian science and innovation sector in 2013 By Irina Dezhina
  2. Review of Russian Legislation in the Sphere of Tax and Civil Legislation in 2013 By Irina Tolmacheva
  3. Schengen Borders In Practice: Facts About Finland (And Russia) By Anna A. Dekalchuk
  4. Connecting the Markets? Recent Evidence on China's Capital Account Liberalization By Chan, Mark K.; Kwok, Simon
  5. Environmental regulatory stringency and the market for abatement goods and services in China By Jing Lan; Alistair Munro
  6. Czech Republic: 2014 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Czech Republic By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  7. The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic By Michal Franta; Tomas Holub; Petr Kral; Ivana Kubicova; Katerina Smidkova; Borek Vasicek
  8. Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China By Marlene Amstad; Ye Huan; Guonan Ma
  9. Estimation of socio-economic indicators of Azerbaijan By Arzu Suleymanov; Malik MEKHDIYEV; Arzu SULEYMANOV; Elnur ALEKBEROV; Rauf MUSAYEV; Samir KHANKISHIYEV
  10. Network Effects in Currency Internationalisation: Insights from BIS Triennial Surveys and Implications for the Renminbi By Dong He; Xiangrong Yu
  11. Scaling analysis of time series of daily prices from stock markets of transitional economies in the Western Balkans By Darko Savran; Djordje Stratimirovic; Suzana Blesic; Vladimir Miljkovic
  12. Monthly Report No. 3/2014 By Vasily Astrov; Neil Foster-McGregor; Sandra M. Leitner; Robert Stehrer; Roman Stöllinger

  1. By: Irina Dezhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the state of fundamental research and science in Russia, the author also touches issues related to innovation
    Keywords: Science in Russia, innovation
    JEL: O32 O38
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Irina Tolmacheva (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a review of the tax and civil legislation in Russia.
    Keywords: Russian tax and civil legislation
    JEL: K1 K2 K3
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Anna A. Dekalchuk (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article attempts to solve the empirical puzzle posed by the way the Finnish diplomatic missions issue Schengen visas to the Russians. Building on the theory of the Self and the Other, a theoretical expectation about the uniformity of the Schengen visa regime is brought forward and further checked against the legal reality of the European Union common visa policy and the Finnish-Russian visa issuance arrangements. The case study of the experience that the Finns have with the Russians coming to their territory and history of the Finnish-Russian relations is carried out to dismantle the panoply of motives and meanings laying behind a particular visa regime and to show how the interplay of various political, economic and social factors works to produce peculiar policy outcomes. The main findings prove that despite both theoretical expectations and legal rules governing the Schengen borders and visas, in practice different member states apply the ‘common’ regime differently depending on both economic rationale and historical memories.
    Keywords: Borders, visa policy, Schengen, Finnish-Russian relations, EU-Russian relations, Self and Other.
    JEL: F55
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Chan, Mark K.; Kwok, Simon
    Abstract: We use longitudinal data on stock prices of cross-listed firms to investigate abnormal systematic changes in the price disparity of cross-listed stocks between the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges from 2002 to 2014. We identify a liberalization policy that generated an unprecedented abrupt convergence in price disparity. The policy, known as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, serves to lower the capital control barrier of cross-market investment between both markets. In a quasi-experimental setup, we find that the announcement of the policy caused the price disparity between cross-listed shares in both markets to reduce by one-sixth. The magnitude of the effect was the largest since 2002, and was seven standard deviations away from the historical average. We also find that the convergence was asymmetric, and the convergence was driven by an upward revaluation of share prices.
    Keywords: Capital account liberalization, Chinese financial market, law of one price, cross-listed shares, natural experiment
    Date: 2014–09
  5. By: Jing Lan (College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University); Alistair Munro (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
    Abstract: We provide an examination of the linkage between environmental regulation stringency and the demand for and supply of abatement goods and services. To that end we construct a five-equation simultaneous model that links environmental regulation stringency to abatement output through various underlying simultaneous mechanisms. This system is then estimated using a panel of 679 eco-firms in 78 industrial Chinese cities during the implementation period of collection and use of pollution discharge fees (promulgated by the Chinese State Council) from 2003 to 2007. We find that higher fees are generally associated with higher abatement supply but for some industries – notably wastewater treatment – there is evidence of ‘output restriction’, meaning that higher charges lead to a reduction in supply for established firms.
    Date: 2014–10
  6. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: Growth is gaining momentum, led by strong external demand while domestic demand is also picking up. The central bank’s foreign exchange intervention policy has helped stem deflationary pressures but inflation is still well below target. Following substantial fiscal adjustment over the past three years, an easing of the fiscal stance is underway and the new government’s medium-term fiscal plans have not yet been fully elaborated. The financial system is sound and resilient to shocks, and improvements in the regulatory and supervisory architecture are ongoing. The challenge for the authorities is to create the conditions for strong and sustainable growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic recovery;Fiscal policy;Labor markets;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Czech Republic;
    Date: 2014–09–02
  7. By: Michal Franta; Tomas Holub; Petr Kral; Ivana Kubicova; Katerina Smidkova; Borek Vasicek
    Abstract: This study examines the use of the exchange rate by the Czech National Bank as a monetary policy instrument at the zero lower bound on interest rates. It provides a review of the economic literature on unconventional monetary policy instruments and particularly on the possibility of using the exchange rate. It explains the CNB’s reasons for further easing monetary policy and for choosing the exchange rate instrument and its specific level, and discusses its expected benefits in the case of the Czech Republic. It also explains why the CNB ultimately decided to transparently declare a one-sided exchange rate commitment with potentially unlimited foreign exchange interventions. The article concludes by assessing the impacts of the exchange rate weakening on the Czech economy to date, as compared to what the CNB had expected, and by describing the public debate of the CNB’s action and related changes in its communication strategy.
    Keywords: Asymmetric exchange rate commitment, deflation, exchange rate, foreign exchange interventions, inflation expectations, monetary policy, unconventional instruments, zero lower bound
    JEL: E31 E37 E58 F31
    Date: 2014–09
  8. By: Marlene Amstad; Ye Huan; Guonan Ma
    Abstract: The headline consumer price inflation (CPI) is often considered too noisy, narrowly defined, and/or slowly available for policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may even exclude important information. This paper develops a new underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China which differentiates between trend and noise, is available daily and uses a broad set of variables that potentially influence inflation. Its construction follows the works at other major central banks, adopts the methodology of a dynamic factor model that extracts the lower frequency components as developed by Forni et al. (2000) and draws on the experience of the People's Bank of China in modelling inflation. The paper is the first application of this type of dynamic factor model for inflation to any large emerging market economy. Our UIG for China is less noisy but still closely tracks the headline CPI. It does not suffer from the excess volatility reduction that plagues traditional core inflation measures and instead provides additional information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different samples.
    Keywords: Inflation, Dynamic Factor Models, Core Inflation, Monetary Policy, Forecasting, China
    Date: 2014–09
    Abstract: Based on the estimation of socio-economic indicators of the Azerbaijan, it is possible to get comprehensive and detailed information basically about development of non-oil sector of country In the presented work, have been evaluated a group of indicators on the basis of covering a long period official statistical data of the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan Republic Development of predictive models of mentioned indicators and conducting of express evaluation in different time incision creates the opportunity to give a proper development, sustainability of growth and diagnostics of the economy of Azerbaijan to the stated objectives
    Keywords: Azerbaijan, Socio-economic development, Sectoral issues
    Date: 2014–10–01
  10. By: Dong He (Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Xiangrong Yu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: The dominance of the US dollar in foreign exchange (FX) markets appears to reflect very strong network effects in the use of international currencies. What we observe today is the result of a slow-moving process that has witnessed a switch from the dominance of the pound sterling to the US dollar, perhaps during the interwar period in the early part of the 20th century. This paper presents a discrete choice model of FX trading that explicitly allows for this type of critical transitions in order to understand the dynamics of currency turnover in FX markets. We estimate the model using the Bank for International Settlements' data from triennial surveys of FX markets and also examine the factors that could potentially shift the dynamic path and lead to an earlier critical transition. We then discuss the implications for the renminbi, a budding international currency. If the renminbi were to become a dominant international currency, it would require China to attain a much higher level of financial development and openness. It is important to note that our model does not address the possibility of a gradual weakening of the network effects in FX markets due to, for example, the advancement of trading technologies, which would allow the co-existence of a few equally dominant major currencies.
    Keywords: Foreign Exchange, International Currency, Network Effects, Financial Development, Renminbi, Critical Transition
    JEL: F31 F33 G12 O53
    Date: 2014–09
  11. By: Darko Savran; Djordje Stratimirovic; Suzana Blesic; Vladimir Miljkovic
    Abstract: In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties of time series of stock market indices (SMIs) of developing economies of Western Balkans, and have compared the results we have obtained with the results from more developed economies. We have used three different techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method, Detrended Moving Average (DMA) method, and Wavelet Transformation (WT) analysis. We have found scaling behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. The scaling of our SMI series changes from long-range correlated to slightly anti-correlated behavior with the change in growth or maturity of the economy the stock market is embedded in. We also report the presence of effects of potential periodic-like influences on the SMI data that we have analyzed. One such influence is visible in all our SMI series, and appears at a period $T_{p}\approx 90$ days. We propose that the existence of various periodic-like influences on SMI data may partially explain the observed difference in types of correlated behavior of corresponding scaling functions.
    Date: 2014–09
  12. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Neil Foster-McGregor (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Graph of the month Share of foreign value added in the exports of selected countries Opinion corner What might be the economic consequences of a potential territorial break-up of Ukraine? (by Vasily Astrov) Trade integration, vertical specialisation and employment growth in the new Member States (by Sandra Leitner and Robert Stehrer) Trade in jobs a counterfactual exercise (by Robert Stehrer and Roman Stöllinger) Vertical trade and business cycle correlations (by Neil Foster-McGregor) Recommended reading Statistical Annex Selected monthly data on the economic situation in Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: value added, foreign trade, Ukraine, territorial break-up, trade integration, vertical specialisation, employment, exports, imports, vertical trade, business cycles
    Date: 2014–03

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