nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2014‒08‒28
fourteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Prospects of the farming sector and rural development in view of food security: the case of the Russian Federation By Vassily Uzun; Valery Saraikin; Ekaterina Gataulina; Natalia Shagayda; Renata Yanbykh; Sergio Gomez y Paloma; Sébastien Mary
  2. Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse? By Li-Gang Liu
  3. Self-employment Choices of Rural Migrants in China: Distance and Social Network By Zhou, Yexin; Chen, Mo; Ye, Jingyi
  4. Tax Amnesty (in Russian) By Kateryna Bornukova; Dzmitry Kruk; Gleb Shymanovich; Yuri Tserlukevich
  5. Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism By Yikai Wang
  6. Reaping the Economic Benefits of Decarbonization for China By Fei Teng; Frank Jotzo
  7. Belarusian Economy in 2013: An Attempt to Reload Old Growth Model (in Russian) By Dzmitry Kruk
  8. Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC By Tomanova, Lucie
  9. Measuring Value Added in the People’s Republic of China’s Exports: A Direct Approach By Xing, Yuqing
  10. Quo Vadis? Energy Consumption and Technological Innovation in China's Economic Growth By Wei Jin; ZhongXiang Zhang
  11. Russia's agricultural modernisation policy under WTO commitments: Why the EU's Common Agricultural Policy is a poor model By Petrick, Martin
  12. Position-Limit Design for the CSI 300 Futures Markets By Lijian Wei; Wei Zhang; Xiong Xiong; Lei Shi
  13. China's regional assessment of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change By Bing Wang; Ruo-Yu Ke; Xiao-Chen Yuan; Yi-Ming Wei
  14. Differences in the Determinants and Targeting of Antidumping: China and India Compared By Ning Meng; Chris Milner; Huasheng Song

  1. By: Vassily Uzun; Valery Saraikin; Ekaterina Gataulina; Natalia Shagayda; Renata Yanbykh; Sergio Gomez y Paloma (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sébastien Mary (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: As the recent situation on world food markets has been increasingly volatile and has been associated with relatively higher food prices, contributing to demonstrations and riots across the world, Russia's agriculture has attracted much attention from economists, experts and policy-makers because they believe that the country could become the world's largest and most reliable grain producer and exporter. In that context, the aim of this report is to evaluate the role of the Russian Federation towards fulfilling domestic food security and more importantly global food security in the short and medium run. In particular, the study aims at examining if Russian farms could substantially increase further their respective output and export levels. The methodology followed in this report is a bottom-up approach, i.e. going from the farm (i.e. microeconomic level) to the food market (i.e. macroeconomic level), that explicitly considers the analysis of food security at the farm level and therefore complements well other works which study the agri-food sector in Russia at a more aggregated level. The perspective of the report is made possible by the use of a wide range of farm-level databases that are, for most, only available to Russian researchers and allow going into a more disaggregated and detailed level of analysis.
    Keywords: Sustainable agriculture, Russia, food security, grain supply, rural development, European Development Cooperation.
    Date: 2014–01
  2. By: Li-Gang Liu (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: China's property market has slowed more than expected since the first half of 2014, leading many commentators to believe this could trigger a hard landing of the Chinese economy, even a financial crisis. However, China's nascent property market is experiencing another cyclical turn. The authorities can still use many policy instruments to avoid a major market downturn or collapse. In the short run, the government could simply phase out property curb policies imposed on some 46 largest cities in China and accelerate hukou reform. In the medium term, the government could reintroduce a public housing scheme to take care of low-income household needs. The public housing program could be funded partially by levying a property tax. Meanwhile, the maturity mismatch of the mortgage portfolio in the banking system could also be better managed by allowing banks to issue covered bonds. The authorities could encourage the development of real estate investment trusts to diversify funding sources of developers. This financial instrument will not only reduce the banking industry's exposure to the real estate market but also reduce funding costs for developers to ensure adequate supply of both commercial and residential properties. Therefore, it is premature to compare the Chinese property market now with the Japanese property bubble collapse in the early 1990s or the US housing market collapse in 2008. China's continuing urbanization, available policy options, and the stage of its property market development all suggest that China's property market is experiencing simply another cyclical adjustment. Indeed, the current slowdown could catalyze the phase-out of outdated and irrelevant policies and accelerate necessary institutional developments in China's property market.
    Date: 2014–08
  3. By: Zhou, Yexin (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute); Chen, Mo; Ye, Jingyi
    Abstract: In Chinese cities, rural migrants on average are less educated and poorer than the urban locals. Migration is costly, especially for those who choose to move to provinces faraway from their hometowns. A larger fraction of the rural migrants are self-employed than that of the urban locals. The social contacts of migrants in the host cities often help them to find jobs or to start businesses. We studied the choice of self-employment of rural migrants in Beijing, using a migrant dataset collected from 2007 to 2012. The result shows that the self-employed rural migrants in Beijing tend to be females, migrating from faraway provinces, with more social contacts, and either having the highest education or the lowest. Education and social capital are positively correlated with earning for both wage-earners and self-employed, with different magnitudes. We use a search model to explain this.
    Keywords: Self-employmen; Rural Migrants; Social Network
    JEL: J61 R23 Z13
    Date: 2014–08–20
  4. By: Kateryna Bornukova (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC)); Dzmitry Kruk (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC)); Gleb Shymanovich; Yuri Tserlukevich (Department of Finance, Arizona State University)
    Abstract: This paper explores international experience of tax amnesties. Despite the popular use of tax amnesties, the results are mixed. The main advantage of the tax amnesty is the possibility to increase tax collections and improve tax compliance. However, it does not account for adverse effect of amnesties on tax compliance and high direct and indirect costs of amnesties. The success of the tax amnesty depends largely on the state of the economy. We have identified target groups and discussed a question of a potential tax amnesty in Belarus.
    Keywords: Tax Amnesty, Tax Evasion, Belarus, Eastern Europe, Tax Policy and Reforms
    JEL: H26
    Date: 2014–08
  5. By: Yikai Wang
    Abstract: Is China's rapid growth sustainable if the labor and capital market distortions persist? Will democratization occur given that Chinese middle-class are supportive of the regime? To answer the above questions, this paper proposes a politico-economic theory, as follows. In oligarchy, a political elite extracts surplus from the state sector and taxes the private sector, but it also needs political support from sufficiently many citizens to maintain its power. “Divide-and-rule†strategy is implemented to guarantee such support: state workers receive high wages and become supporters of the elite, while wages of private workers are reduced due to the policy distortion. In the short-run, the low wages in the private sector lead to rapid growth of the private firms and total output. However, long-run growth is harmed by capital market distortions favoring the state firms. The theory suggests that the economy develops along a three-stage transition: “rapid growthâ€, “state capitalismâ€, and two cases in the third stage: “middle-income trap†or “sustained growthâ€, depending on whether democratization occurs endogenously. The theory is consistent with salient aspects of China's recent development and gives predictions on China's future development path.
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Fei Teng (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Research Center for Contemporary Management, Tsinghua University); Frank Jotzo (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: China needs to reduce its carbon emissions if global climate change mitigation is to succeed. Conventional economic analysis views cutting emissions as a cost, creating a collective action problem. However, decarbonization can improve productivity and provide co-benefits that accord with multiple national policy objectives. We track China's progress in reducing the emissions intensity of the economy, and construct a macro scenario with China's carbon emissions peaking in the 2020s. Investment in greater energy productivity and economic restructuring away from heavy industries can bring productivity gains, and decarbonization of energy supply has important co-benefits for air pollution and energy security. Combined with lower climate change risks and the likelihood that China's actions will influence other countries, this suggests that cutting carbon emissions is not only in China's self-interest but also in the global interest. To properly identify the true costs and benefits of climate change action requires new thinking in economic analysis.
    Keywords: China, climate change mitigation, co-benefits
    JEL: O44 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2014–08
  7. By: Dzmitry Kruk (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: This study deals with Belarusian macroeconomic dynamics in 2013. The problem of poor growth potential remains important in 2013. Nevertheless, the progress in structural reforms was scarce, as the government was too optimistic in respect to inertia growth mechanisms. Hence, 2013 is likely to be summarized as year when the government attempted to ÔreloadÕ the existing model of the national economy. The outcomes of this attempt can hardly be treated as satisfactory ones. Price competitiveness of domestic produces shrank substantially given active expansion of consumer demand supported by the government. However, other demand components were not stimulated so actively given lowering effectiveness of correspondent economic policy tools. For instance, contradictions in monetary policy objectives and low effectiveness of its tools became rather evident in 2013, which has formed a kind of monetary policy trap. Finally, Belarus in 2013 entered a phase of cyclical recession, which might become a long-lasting one. Moreover, a broad range of distortions has been accumulated during the year, which highlights the vitality of macroeconomic adjustment.
    Keywords: Belarus, economic growth, macroeconomic policy, monetary policy, structural reforms
    Date: 2014–05
  8. By: Tomanova, Lucie (Silesian University in Opava/Finance, School of Business Administration in Karvina, Karvina, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: The exchange rate plays an important role in a country’s export performance and currency volatility has impact on international trade, the balance of payments and economic performance, however, views on the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows are inconsistent, thus it is necessary to examine this matter further, and with knowledge of the application to small open economies. This paper analyzes impact of exchange rate volatility on the export performance of Central and Eastern European countries. Using monthly time series data, the empirical analyses has been carried out for the period 01/1999 to 03/2013. Volatility’s impact on export performance is estimated on bilateral export flows of Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland to euro area. For the volatility measurement, G/ARCH models are used. Autoregressive distributed lag and error-correction approach are used to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports. The results suggest no significant relationship among the exchange rate volatility and export performance in CEE countries, impact of exchange rate volatility turns out to be ambiguous.
    Keywords: exchange rates, VECM, ARDL, export, volatility
    JEL: F31 F42 C22
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Xing, Yuqing (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We apply a direct approach to estimate domestic value added embedded in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) exports. The estimates suggest that the domestic value added of processing exports and processing high-tech exports gradually increased from 30% and 25%, to 44% and 45%, respectively, between 1997 and 2012. On the other hand, the domestic content of processing exports with supplied materials fell to 14% from the peak of 35%. In 2012, the domestic value added of the PRC’s total exports remained below 77%. Our estimates prove to be the upper limits of the corresponding trade in value added. Compared to our estimates, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Trade in Value Added database (TiVA) significantly overestimates the domestic content of the PRC’s exports. TiVA’s estimates are also inconsistent with the fact that the share of processing exports in the PRC’s total exports has decreased steadily. In addition, we show that the PRC’s processing exports demonstrate significant heterogeneity across its trading partners; processing exports account for a large portion of total exports to high income countries but a relatively small portion of exports to low income countries. This heterogeneity implies that the domestic content of the PRC’s exports varies significantly by destination.
    Keywords: People’s Republic of China; trade in value added; domestic value added
    JEL: F10
    Date: 2014–08–08
  10. By: Wei Jin (School of Public Policy, Zhejiang University); ZhongXiang Zhang (School of Economics, Fudan University)
    Abstract: Whether China maintains its business-as-usual energy-intensive growth trajectory or changes to a sustainable development alternative has significant implications for global energy and climate governance. This paper is motivated to theoretically examine ChinaÕs potential transition from its energy-intensive status quo to an innovation-oriented growth prospect. We develop an economic growth model that incorporates the endogenous mechanism of technological innovation and its interaction with fossil energy use and the environment. We find that from an initial condition with a pristine environment and a small amount of capital installation, the higher dynamic benefits of physical investment will incentivize the investment in physical capital rather than R&D-related innovation. Accumulation of the energy-consuming capital thus leads to an intensive use of fossil energy - an energy-intensive growth pattern. But if the mechanism of R&D-related innovation is introduced into the economy, until the dynamic benefit of R&D is equalized with that of capital investment, the economy embarks on R&D for innovation. As a result, the economy will evolve along an innovation-oriented balanced growth path where consumption, physical capital and technology all grow, fossil energy consumptions decline, and environmental quality improves.
    Keywords: technological innovation, energy consumption, economic growth model
    JEL: Q55 Q58 Q43 Q48 O13 O31 O33 O44 F18
    Date: 2014–08
  11. By: Petrick, Martin
    Abstract: How to revitalise the agricultural sector under the commitments of membership in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has emerged as a major policy challenge for the Russian government. According to the current State Programme for the Development of Agriculture, a key support channel is via concessional credits to the livestock sector, which was singled out as the largest recipient of interest subsidies in 2013 - 2020. Currently, these payments are not considered green box compatible under WTO commitments, whereas similar measures within the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are. While the Russian government may face little difficulty in dressing up its investment subsidies to make them look like green box compatible, the CAP is regarded here as a poor guide for policy reform. The available evidence shows that structural policy elements of the CAP were inefficient in reaching any of the manifold goals they were hoped to achieve. Drawing on the example of East Germany, it is argued that reforms of the institutional environment of agriculture are at least as important for successful agricultural modernisation as the generous availability of funding. --
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Lijian Wei (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney); Wei Zhang (Tianjin University); Xiong Xiong (Tianjin University); Lei Shi (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to find the optimal level of position limit for the Chinese Stock Index (CSI) 300 futures market. A small position limit helps to prevent price manipulations in the spot market, thus able to keep the magnitude of instantaneous price changes within policy makers' tolerance range. However, setting the position limit too small may also have negative effects on market quality. We propose an articial limit order market with heterogeneous and interacting agents to examine the impact of different levels of position limit on market quality, which is measured by liquidity, return volatility, efficiency of information dissemination and trading welfare. The simulation model is based on realistic trading mechanism, investor structure and order submission behavior observed in the CSI 300 futures market. Our results show that based on the liquidity condition in September 2010, raising the position limit from 100 to 300 can signicantly improve market quality and at the same time keep maximum absolute price change per 5 seconds under the 2% tolerance level. However, the improvement becomes only marginal when further increasing the position limit beyond 300. Therefore, we believe that raising the position limit a moderate level can enhance the functionality of the CSI 300 futures market, which benets the development of the Chinese nancial system.
    Keywords: position limit; stock index futures; agent-based modeling; market quality
    JEL: G14 C63 D44
    Date: 2014–06–01
  13. By: Bing Wang; Ruo-Yu Ke; Xiao-Chen Yuan; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Renewable energy development is a major response to address the issues of climate change and energy security. The utilization of renewable resources, however, highly depends on the climate conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change. Based on literature analysis, this paper presents a general framework for renewable energy vulnerability assessment and applies grey cluster analysis method to demonstrate the features of vulnerability, and then employs the simple additive weighting approach to address the multiple-attribute decision problems of vulnerability assessment in China. The categorized results imply that the proposed index system is suitable for decision-making analysis and comparative analysis of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change in China. In terms of exposure part, the cluster results are complex and varied due to the unique combination of natural factors, social factors and the energy structure. In the sensitivity section, the results are presented on the distribution of areas rich in hydropower, wind power and solar energy potential. Moreover, the main results of this study are the higher renewable energy vulnerability of the poorer regions of China to climate change and the relative higher importance of adaptive capacity building in vulnerability management. Finally, policy recommendations on regional renewable energy vulnerability management are also made.
    Keywords: Renewable energy, Vulnerability, Climate change, Grey cluster analysis, Vulnerability scoping diagram
    JEL: Q41
    Date: 2014–02
  14. By: Ning Meng; Chris Milner; Huasheng Song
    Abstract: Despite both being developing countries, China and India have markedly contrasting patterns in their use and targeting of antidumping (AD) measures. We explore the factors driving AD use by these two countries, considering in turn macroeconomic, strategic and other determinants. We find more regular or systematic features of AD use by China, while India displays a less systematic pattern of AD use. Economic growth, tariff protection and FTA participation are shown to constrain AD use by China. Compared to India, AD use by China is also more sensitive to international conditions. Furthermore, China targets developed countries more than developing countries, while India is less discriminating with respect to the country type it targets.
    Keywords: China; India; antidumping JEL classification: F1; F5
    Date: 2014

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