nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2014‒06‒22
fifteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Synthetic ‘Real Socialism’: A Counterfactual Analysis of Political and Economic Liberalizations By Ilaria Petrarca; Roberto Ricciuti
  2. Migration, local off-farm employment, and agricultural production efficiency: Evidence from China: By Yang, Jin; Wang, Hui; Jin, Songqing; Chen, Kevin Z.; Riedinger, Jeffrey; Chao, Peng
  3. Greenhouse gas intensity of three main crops and implications for low-carbon agriculture in China By Wen Wang; Yuebin Lin; Liping Guo; Yingchun Li; Man Su; Christian de Perthuis; Xiaotang Ju; Erda Lin; Dominic Moran
  4. An evaluation of the effectiveness of farmland protection policy in China: By Li, Man
  5. Russian policies in support of innovation: elusive quest for efficiency By Simachev, Yuri; Kuzyk, Mikhail; Feygina, Vera
  6. Wage determination in China during the reform period By Holz, Carsten A.
  7. The Underwriting, Choice And Performance Of Government-Insured Mortgages In Russia By Evgeniy M. Ozhegov
  8. Did post-enlargement labor mobility help the EU to adjust during the Great Recession? The case of Slovakia By Martin Kahanec; Lucia Mýtna Kureková
  9. An Ongoing Reversal Of Fortune Among Russian Cities: City Age, Natural Resources, And Changing Spatial Income Distribution By Alexander S. Skorobogatov
  10. Role and impact of different types of financial institutions on economic performance and stability of the real sector in selected EU member states By Michal Jurek
  11. Planning Technique for Complex Economic Object’s Synergy at Mergers and Acquisitions By Levitskiy, Stanislav; Frunze, Igor
  12. The Mechanics of Real Undervaluation and Growth By Wlasiuk, Juan Marcos
  13. Interactions between CNY and CNH Money and Forward Exchange Markets By David Leung; John Fu
  14. The Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: VAR and SVAR Approaches By Tuan Anh Phan
  15. Why has energy efficiency not scaled-up in the industrial and commercial sectors in Ukraine ? an empirical analysis By Hochman, Gal; Timilsina, Govinda R.

  1. By: Ilaria Petrarca (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Roberto Ricciuti (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
    Abstract: We evaluate the effect of the 1989 shock over economic development in four Eastern European countries. We apply a counterfactual approach and define the shock alternatively as the trigger for economic openness, political competition, or both. The main result is an effect of economic freedom large than the one of democratization. In Poland and Bulgaria we find a positive impact of economic freedom, while in Bulgaria there is also a smaller effect of democratization. In Albania, after an initial recession, economic freedom helps recovery. Finally, Romania does not show any robust effect.
    Keywords: economics of transition; synthetic control estimator; democratization; economic freedom.
    JEL: C21 C23 O11 O43 P27
    Date: 2014–06
  2. By: Yang, Jin; Wang, Hui; Jin, Songqing; Chen, Kevin Z.; Riedinger, Jeffrey; Chao, Peng
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of local off-farm employment and migration on rural households’ technical efficiency of crop production using a five-year panel dataset from more than 2,000 households in five Chinese provinces. While there is not much debate about the positive contribution of migration and local off-farm employment to China’s economy, there is an increasing concern about the potential negative effects of moving labor away from agriculture on China’s future food security. This is a critical issue as maintaining self-sufficiency in grain production will be critical for China to feed its huge population in the future.
    Keywords: Migration, labor, cereals, food security, Efficiency, local off-farm,
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Wen Wang; Yuebin Lin; Liping Guo; Yingchun Li; Man Su; Christian de Perthuis; Xiaotang Ju; Erda Lin; Dominic Moran
    Abstract: China faces significant challenges in reconciling food security goals with the objective of becoming a low-carbon economy. Agriculture accounts for approximately 11% of China's national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with cereal production representing a large proportion (about 32%) of agricultural emissions. Minimizing emissions per unit of product is a policy objective and we estimated the GHG intensities (GHGI) of rice, wheat and maize production in China from 1985 to 2010. Results show significant variations of GHGIs among Chinese provinces and regions. Relative to wheat and maize, GHGI of rice production is much higher owing to CH4 emissions, and is more closely related to yield levels. In general, the south and central has been the most carbon intensive region in rice production while the GHGI of wheat production is highest in north and northwest provinces. The southwest has been characterized by the highest maize GHGI but the lowest rice GHGI. Compared to the baseline scenario, a 2% annual reduction in N inputs, combined with improved water management in rice paddies, will mitigate 17% of total GHG emissions from cereal production in 2020 while sustaining the required yield increase to ensure food security. Better management practices will entail additional gains in soil organic carbon further decreasing GHGI. To realize the full mitigation potential while maximizing agriculture development, the design of appropriate policies should accommodate local conditions.
    Keywords: food security, low-carbon agriculture, greenhouse gas intensity, China
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Li, Man
    Abstract: Almost two decades have passed since China first enacted legislation to protect farmland from conversion to nonagricultural use. Yet hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land are still developed to urban area each year, raising the question of whether the legislation is effective in preserving farmland from development. This paper examines the effectiveness of the Basic Farmland Protection Regulation in protecting high-quality farmland from urban development in China in the first decade after it came into effect (1995‒2005).
    Keywords: farmland, rural areas, urban development, Land ownership, Land reform, Land use, Land tenure, urban spatial model, non-nested hypothesis test, farmland protection,
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Simachev, Yuri; Kuzyk, Mikhail; Feygina, Vera
    Abstract: Focused on the efficiency of the Russian innovation-fostering policy, the research is based on an empirical analysis of how policy instruments impact firms’ behavior. The data is obtained from two surveys of more than 600 Russian industrial companies in 2011-2012. The analysis shows that tax incentives are more conducive to innovations with a longer payback period, whereas public funding is more likely to facilitate launching new innovative projects. At the same time, both kinds of innovation support tools are affected by crowding out private funds by public ones. Besides, innovation policy design and administration are not friendly to young companies.
    Keywords: innovation; firm behavior; tax incentives; public subsidies and grants; evaluation of government innovation policy
    JEL: L20 O31 O32 O38
    Date: 2014–01
  6. By: Holz, Carsten A. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to ascertain how wages are being determined in China during the reform period. The paper focuses on the development of the regulatory framework since 1978 and proceeds by examining official regulations regarding labor market institutions and wage setting, and by evaluating their potential implications for actual wage setting.
    Keywords: wage determination; labor market institutions; minimum wages; wage classification system; wage level and structure; labor contracts; collective bargaining; public sector wages; wage-performance link
    JEL: J30 J31 J41 J45 M52 M54 M55 P23
    Date: 2014–05–06
  7. By: Evgeniy M. Ozhegov (National Research University Higher School)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the mortgage borrowing process from a Russian state-owned provider of residential housing mortgages concentrating on the choice of having government insurance. This analysis takes into account the underwriting process and the choice of loan limit by the bank, the choice of contract terms and the performance of all loans issued from 2008 to 2012. Our dataset contains demographic, financial, loan terms and the performance information for all applications. We use a multistep nonparametric approach to estimate the determinants of bank and borrower choice. The main finding that the probability of having government insurance is linked to riskier loans, but insured loans also are more likely to be approved by the bank. The bank, when approving a borrower, takes into account not the probability of default but the difference between the probability of default and having government insurance.
    Keywords: mortgage, terms choice, default, nonparametrics.
    JEL: C14 C30 C51 G21
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Martin Kahanec; Lucia Mýtna Kureková
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the mobility patterns of Slovaks into the rest of the European Union (EU) following Slovakia’s EU accession in 2004 and through the Great Recession. Combining information from various data sources including the Slovak Labor Force Survey and conducting our own statistical analysis of selectivity into migration, we study whether and how migration responded to asymmetric economic shocks at home and abroad. We identify a number of shifts in the directionality and composition of migration flows in terms of the destinations, gender, age, educational attainment and occupation, reflecting changing labor market conditions in receiving countries and Slovakia. We show that besides the standard demographic factors, migration propensity was higher among the unemployed and from the more depressed regions of Slovakia. We conclude that labor migration has served as an important adjustment mechanism in the country and more generally in the EU labor market.
    Keywords: Adjustment, EU enlargement, labor market, migration, Slovakia
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2014–06–12
  9. By: Alexander S. Skorobogatov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper documents the negative link between the age of Russian cities and their average wage. This link is robust to various definitions of city age and sample censuring, the inclusion of regional and time fixed effects, dependent variable spatial lag and many urban characteristics. This link is revealed especially for cities founded after the Soviet industriali-zation and for upper quintiles of cities by their average wage. To determine a mechanism behind the established fact, hypotheses as to spatial patterns of economic performance are discussed, including the increasing return hypothesis, the institutions hypothesis and the geography hypothesis. Following the sophisticated version of the geography hypothesis, a model of growth in n-city and two-sector economy is developed. The model replicates the link between age and per capita income and contains testable hypotheses that enable one to check whether a mechanism outlined in the model is behind the link between city age and wage. Our empirical strategy is based on a quasi-experiment, in which the treat-ment effect is made by time and various age groups of the cities are broken up into treatment and control groups. The results are strongly in favor of the sophisticated geography hypothesis. The revealed mechanism suggests that the chang-ing spatial patterns of wage differentials are explained by the changing remaining stocks of natural resources. Older cit-ies are getting relatively poorer due to the shrinking of their remaining resource stocks, while new cities are emerging in resource-rich territories with the respective income advantages.
    Keywords: quasi-experiment, exhaustible resources, internal colonization, differences-in-differences, urban development
    JEL: R12 Q32 O13
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Michal Jurek (Poznan University of Economics)
    Abstract: The purpose of this report is to analyse the impact of the financial sector on the real sector of the economy in the selected old (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom) and new (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland) EU member states. The specific objectives are: 1. Analysis of the influence of financial institutions on financing the real economy. 2. Identification of sectoral and national differences in the financial sectors and consequences of these divergences for the real sectors in analysed countries. In order to accomplish this target, extensive research is undertaken. It encompasses the analysis of types of financial institutions functioning in the selected EU member states. Linkages between different types of financial institutions and the real sector of the economy are identified and described, and differences in impact of the financial sector on the real sector of the economy in the analysed EU member states are recognized. Finally, comparative analysis of evolution of structure of financial sector and driving forces in the process of its evolution in selected countries and group of countries is presented. Conducted analysis allowed formulating many remarks. Among them, the most important appears to be that the proper regulatory environment is crucial to prevent negative influence of financialisation on the real sector of the economy. Public authorities should be more proactive in creating a financial sector able to reconcile the private financial institutions striving for profit with interests of the real sector and of general public ones. To achieve this target public authorities should, on the one hand, effectively regulate and supervise all financial institutions, and, on the other, create favourable conditions for development of other than private-owned profit-oriented financial institutions. Policy goals should include promoting both competition and plurality. Competition is necessary for efficient functioning of financial institutions. Plurality, by protecting diversity of financial sectors, builds up systemic trust and helps maintaining the stability of this sector. Efficient, but less oligopolistic market structures within the framework of prudential regulation should enforce financial sectors’ stability in the analysed countries. Therefore, optimum regulatory structures should be aimed at the protection of the diversity within the framework of harmonization of financial sectors within the EU.
    Keywords: financial institutions, financial sector, banking and finance, ownership structure, market concentration, mergers and acquisitions, privatization
    JEL: E44 E50 G21 G22 G32 G34 N24
  11. By: Levitskiy, Stanislav; Frunze, Igor
    Abstract: The paper reviews integration problems for complex economic objects aiming to achieve a synergy effect from complementary actions of their assets, which total value exceeds isolated functioning results. In the present times in Ukraine problems concerning assessment of synergy effect at M&A of companies are the new among examining objects and that is why need further development. It is shown that application of system approach to investigation the efficiency integration of economic objects at mergers and acquisitions with regards of process design peculiarities of managerial decisions allows maximum accurate analyzing the results of interaction of economic units within unified integrated structure. So, one of the main reasons to make a bargain on M&A is intention to obtain positive synergy effect because basing on management theory its appearance promotes competitiveness and efficiency increase of the company. According to carried out analysis of existing approaches to assessment of expected synergy effect mostly models offer to calculate one-off synergy effect. It is worth noting that different kinds of synergies can appear not just after combining, but with time, that requires further investigations. It has been proposed a planning mechanism developed on the base of conceptual description the function results for integrated formation, which is the key technique tool for mergers and acquisitions.
    Keywords: Planning Technique, Mergers & Acquisitions, Integration, Complex Economic Object
    JEL: D60 L22
    Date: 2014–04–15
  12. By: Wlasiuk, Juan Marcos
    Abstract: The media and policy makers often mention that China manipulates its real exchange rate (RER) in order to improve its exports and boost growth. This view, however, is not supported by the most prominent economic models, which do not predict a positive relationship between real undervaluation and economic growth. I propose a 3-sector model with labor market frictions that explains how a policy aimed at increasing domestic savings and depreciating the RER can, at the same time, generate real growth through a reallocation of workers from a low-productivity traditional sector into a high-productivity manufacturing sector. The policy is particularly effective in countries with relative abundance of labor, scarcity of agricultural resources, and high barriers for the entry of workers into the manufacturing sector. Empirically, I verify that higher real undervaluation (measured as deviations from PPP) is positively associated with GDP and manufacturing growth in countries with lower per capita agricultural land and higher rural population. The relationship vanishes and even becomes negative in the opposite cases. Finally, I propose a simple methodology for the identification of real depreciations exogenously induced (i.e. that are not related to changes in productivities or in terms of trade). I find that, during the last 20 years, such episodes have been mainly observed in East Asian developing countries.
    Keywords: Real Exchange Rate, Growth, Labor Market Frictions, Urban-Rural Migration, China
    JEL: E5 E58 F31 F43 J61 O11
    Date: 2013–06
  13. By: David Leung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); John Fu (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: We analysed the interactions between the RMB deliverable forward markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong. In order to broaden our perspective, we reference this to the Eurodollar market from the late 1950s to early 1980s. Our findings suggest that onshore regulations, notably the Regulation Q interest rate ceiling, were effective in containing spillovers between the Eurodollar market and the US domestic market. For the CNH market, we found evidence that cross-market spillovers between the Mainland and CNH markets became two-way in 2013, but were more limited and mostly not significant in earlier years. It was found that onshore-to-offshore spillovers were larger than spillovers in the opposite direction in most cases. This probably reflects the fact that the CNH market, though rapidly growing, is small compared to the Mainland market, and possibly more subject to onshore influences. Looking ahead, the Mainland market is expected to continue to play a leading role in onshore-offshore money and foreign exchange market interactions since these markets will be ultimately dominated by the monetary policy stance of the onshore authorities.
    JEL: F30 G1 G12 G15 Q
    Date: 2014–06
  14. By: Tuan Anh Phan (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: This paper employs Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Structural VAR (SVAR) models to analyse VietnamÕs inflation determinants using quarterly data from 1996 to 2012. The results suggest that: (i) the inflation responses to monetary policy shocks are plausible and similar to standard monetary transmission in advanced economies; (ii) the policy interest rate plays an important role to inflation variation, which differs with what have been found in previous studies for Vietnam; and (iii) shocks to output and prices in trading partners have strong effects on inflation in Vietnam, while international oil and rice prices seem not to systematically affect VietnamÕs inflation. Moreover, the State Bank of Vietnam does use monetary policy tools to ease down the inflationary pressure caused by foreign factors.
    JEL: E52 E2
    Date: 2014–05
  15. By: Hochman, Gal; Timilsina, Govinda R.
    Abstract: Improvement of energy efficiency is one of the main options to reduce energy demand and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine. However, large-scale deployment of energy efficient technologies has been constrained by several financial, technical, information, behavioral, and institutional barriers. This study assesses these barriers through a survey of 500 industrial and commercial firms throughout Ukraine. The results from the survey were used in a cumulative multi-logit model to understand the importance of the barriers. The analysis shows that financial barriers caused by high upfront costs of energy efficient technologies, higher costs of finance, and higher opportunity costs of energy efficiency investment are key barriers to the adoption of energy efficiency measures in Ukraine. Institutional barriers particularly lack government policies, which also contributes to the slow adoption of energy efficient technologies in the country. The results suggest targeted policy and credit enhancements could help trigger adoption of energy efficient measures. The empirical analysis shows strong inter-linkages among the barriers and finds heterogeneity between industrial and commercial sectors on the realization of the barriers.
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics,Energy Production and Transportation,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
    Date: 2014–06–01

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