nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2014‒05‒04
eighteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Out-Of-Pocket Payments In The Post-Semashko Health Care System By Sergey Shishkin; Elena Potapchik; Elena Selezneva
  2. FDI and Long-term Economic Growth in Russia By TAGANOV, BORIS
  3. History and practice of awarding academic degrees and titles in Russia in the 1990s and 2000s By Kira Ilina
  4. Do Chinese individuals believe in global climate change and why? An econometric analysis By Jing Dai; Andreas Ziegler; Martin Kesternich; Andreas Löschel
  5. Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia By Agatha M. Poroshina
  6. Understanding financial inclusion in China By Fungácová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent
  7. Financial development and patterns of industrial specialization: Regional evidence from China By He , Qing; Xue, Chang; Zhu, Chenqi
  8. A Field Study of Chinese Migrant Workers' Attitudes Toward Risks, Strategic Uncertainty, and Competitiveness By Li Hao; Daniel Houser; Lei Mao; Marie Claire Villeval
  9. Editorial for the Special Issue on 'Computational Methods for Russian Economic and Financial Modelling' By Fantazzini, Dean
  10. Branding as a reflection of culture - An analysis of brand consumption patterns in China By Tristan Klocke; Joana César Machado
  11. Chinese direct investment in Africa. A state strategy? By Thierry Pairault
  12. Co-residence, Life-Cycle Savings and Inter- Generational Support in Urban China By Mark Rosenzweig; Junsen Zhang
  13. Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries By Kym Anderson; Anna Strutt
  14. Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns By Wensheng Kang; Ronald A. Ratti
  15. Does Co-integration and Causal Relationship Exist between the Non- stationary Variables for Chinese Bank’s Profitability? An Empirical Evidence By Omar Masood; Priya Darshini Pun Thapa; Olivier Levyne; Frederic Teulon; Rabeb Triki
  16. The History Of Sociological Research On Occupations And Professions In The Ussr 1960-80s: Ideological Frameworks And Analytical Resources By Roman N. Abramov
  17. Special agricultural lending Institutions - the Case of Macedonia By Kovachev, Goran
  18. Adaptability of the internal business environment of small and medium-sized enterprises in Slovakia By Misunova Hudakova, Ivana; Misun, Juraj

  1. By: Sergey Shishkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Potapchik (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Selezneva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents the analysis results of existing practices of out-of-pocket payments in the Russian post-Semashko health care system. It was carried out based on the data reflected in the ‘Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey’ from 1991-2012 and data of the ‘Georating’ survey carried out in all regions of the Russian Federation in 2010. The trends of legal and informal out-of-pocket payments for inpatient and outpatient care are revealed, and the social and economic factors which make patients pay a fee for medical services for fee are identified. The changes in out-of-pocket health expenditures in 2005-2010 are analyzed, and the assessment of total (public and private) health expenditures on different types of health care is made
    Keywords: Semashko health care system, health care, out-of-pocket payments, private payment, informal payment
    JEL: I10 I11
    Date: 2014
    Abstract: In this paper we consider relationship between foreign direct investment (as one of the mechanisms of technological development) and long-term economic growth. In the beginning we discuss the role of FDI in the increase of total factor productivity from the viewpoint of endogenous growth theory. We then turn to the comparative analysis of FDI inflow to Russia and other countries broken down by economic industries. We find that Russian industries capable of increasing TFP and positively impacting the long-term economic growth are significantly underinvested relative to other countries. Since, in our opinion, pre-existing sources of Russia’s economic growth are almost completely exhausted, we suggest several economic policy measures aimed at attracting FDI in Russia and improve the absorptive capacity of the country.
    Keywords: FDI, TFP, economic growth, human capital, economic policy
    JEL: E66 F21 O15 O43
    Date: 2014–04
  3. By: Kira Ilina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article reconstructs the activity of 'Alexander Yakushev school', a scholarly movement whose representatives over the last 20 years have studied the history of awarding academic degrees in the Russian Empire, the USSR and the Russian Federation. The causes of this school's emergence, its prospective research areas are analyzed, and its achievements are evaluated. Besides, the article assesses the reform plan for the thesis review procedure which Yakushev suggested after the Higher Attestation Commission (VAK) refused to confirm the higher doctorate in law he was awarded.
    Keywords: Russia, universities, academic degrees, scholarly certification, thesis, review, legislation, historiography
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Jing Dai (University of Kassel); Andreas Ziegler (University of Kassel); Martin Kesternich (ZEW); Andreas Löschel (ZEW)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent and the determinants of individual global climate change be-liefs. In contrast to former studies, it is focused on China due to its crucial role in global cli-mate policy and its responsibility as the worldwide biggest producer of CO2 emissions. The empirical analysis is based on unique data from a survey among more than 1000 individuals from five cities in China, namely Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, and Shenyang. In line with previous studies in other countries, our results suggest that the vast majority of al-most 90% of the Chinese respondents believe in the existence of global climate change, which seems to be a convenient basis for ambitious climate policy in China. Our econometric analy-sis reveals that the personal experience with extreme weather events (and particularly heat-waves) alone is already sufficient to increase global climate change beliefs, although conse-quential personal physical or financial damages lead to stronger effects. A rising number of extreme weather events and consequential personal damages in the future might thus further decrease climate change skepticism. Our estimation results additionally reveal that females as well as people in medium ages, with higher household incomes, a lower education, and from Chengdu or Shenyang are more skeptical with respect to global climate change.
    Keywords: Global climate change, beliefs and skepticism, extreme weather events, China, micro-econometric analysis
    JEL: Q54 Q58
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Agatha M. Poroshina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the problems of credit risk modeling of residential mortgage lending in Russia. Using unique mortgage loan and macro data from a regional branch of the Agency of Home Mortgage Lending (2008-2012), we find that borrower and mortgage loan characteristics affect the loan performance and play an important role in predicting default as well as a macroeconomic situation. On the residential mortgage market, borrowers with undeclared income have the lowest probability of default, mainly explained by the difference in declared and real income. Obtained results are robust under parametric and semiparametric specifications with correction for selectivity bias.
    Keywords: credit risk, default, mortgage lending, sample selection, Russia
    JEL: C14 D12 R20
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Fungácová, Zuzana (BOFIT); Weill, Laurent (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We use data from the World Bank Global Findex database for 2011 to analyze financial inclusion in China, including comparisons with the other BRICS countries. We find a high level of financial inclusion in China manifested by greater use of formal account and formal saving than in the other BRICS. Financial exclusion, i.e. not having a formal account, is mainly voluntary. The use of formal credit is however less frequent in China than in the other BRICS. Borrowing through family or friends is the most common way of obtaining credit in all the BRICS countries, but other channels for borrowing are not very commonly used by individuals in China. We find that higher income, better education, being a man, and being older are associated with greater use of formal accounts and formal credit in China. Income and education influence the use of alternative sources of borrowing. Overall financial inclusion does not constitute a major problem in China, but such limited use of formal credit can create a challenge for further economic development.
    Keywords: financial inclusion; financial institutions; China
    JEL: G21 O16 P34
    Date: 2014–04–08
  7. By: He , Qing (BOFIT); Xue, Chang (BOFIT); Zhu, Chenqi (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the influences of financial development on patterns of industrial specialization across China’s regions. We find that industrial sectors reliant on access to external finance are found to concentrate in regions with developed financial markets. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) and informal financing channels are shown to play significant roles in shaping patterns of industrial specialization in China. In contrast, proxies for formal financial markets, e.g. the banking system and capital markets have few effects on regional industrial agglomeration. The role of financial development remains robust to instrumental variable estimation and controlling for other traditional determinants of regional specialization.
    Keywords: financial development; informal finance; FDI; industrial specialization
    JEL: G10 G20 L60
    Date: 2014–04–11
  8. By: Li Hao (Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Daniel Houser (Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science and Department of Economics, George Mason University); Lei Mao (Groupe d’Analyse et de Théorie Economique, UniversiteÌ de Lyon); Marie Claire Villeval (Groupe d’Analyse et de Théorie Economique, UniversiteÌ de Lyon)
    Abstract: Using a field experiment in China, we study whether migration status is correlated with attitudes toward risk, ambiguity, and competitiveness. Our subjects include migrants and non-migrants. We find that, migrants exhibit no differences from non-migrants in risk and ambiguity preferences elicited using pairs of lotteries; however, migrants are significantly more likely to enter competition in the presence of strategic uncertainty when they expect competitive entries from others. Our results suggest that migration may be driven more by a stronger belief in one’s ability to succeed in an uncertain and competitive environment than by risk attitudes under state uncertainty. Length: 46
    Keywords: migration, risk preferences, strategic uncertainty, ambiguity, field experiment
    JEL: C93 D03 D63 J61
    Date: 2014–04
  9. By: Fantazzini, Dean
    Abstract: This double-issue contains 11 papers invited for the first special issue on “Computational methods for Russian economic and financial modelling”. It was an attempt to explore and bring together practical, state-of-the-art applications of computational techniques with a particular focus on Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The response was beyond expectations and managed to cover a wide range of issues, so that a double-issue was considered: the first dealing with Finance and the second with Economics.
    Keywords: Forecasting; oil price; Google; Russian stock market; T-distribution with vector degrees of freedom; portfolio management; Fund manager; Russian banking sector; Credit Risk; DSGE; Russia; Immigrants; Intertemporal general equilibrium model; Intertemporal equilibrium; Inflation; Inflation expectations;
    JEL: C02 C11 C22 C32 C61 C68 E5 G1 G2 J0 J1
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Tristan Klocke (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto); Joana César Machado (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão and CEGE, Universidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto)
    Abstract: This study examines cultural factors influencing brand building strategies in the Chinese market. Our purpose is to investigate what Chinese consumers value in a brand, examining consumer behavior as well as manufacturers and their business strategies to respond to customers. Findings show a positive correlation between branding strategies considering cultural factors and business success in China, implicating that culture, lifestyle, and economic development influence customers’ attitude towards a brand. In particular, brand image, a connection with a social group, and a strong need to avoid uncertainty, reflect dominant culture values in the purchase decision of consumer goods, implicating that they are valued as a reflection of Chinese consumers’ own cultural values. The paper concludes with a discussion about implications and suggestions for future research.
    Keywords: China, consumer goods, culture, consumption, branding
    Date: 2014–04
  11. By: Thierry Pairault (CCJ - Chine, Corée, Japon - CNRS : UMR8173 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Université Paris VII - Paris Diderot)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to review available statistical and in-formational databases in order to understand the actual importance of Chinese direct investment in Africa and to infer its strategic significance. Hence, I shall successively present three main data and information sources, then summarize some observations they allow, and finally question the role and strategies of those Chinese enterprises investing in Africa which are under the direct super-vision of the Chinese government.
    Keywords: China;Afrique;investissement direct étranger;IDE;entreprises publiques
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Mark Rosenzweig (Economic Growth Center, Yale University); Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: We use unique data characterizing individual savings for twins and non-twins in urban China to examine why the savings rates of the young are elevated relative to the middle-aged, despite rising individual life-cycle incomes. We show that inter-generational co-residence masks the true life-cycle patterns of individual savings in standard Chinese household data sets, which are aggregated at the household level. Moreover, we show that to understand life-cycle savings behavior it is necessary to take into account inter-generational co-residence, an important phenomenon in China and in many developing countries. To test a model that describes joint life-cycle savings and co-residence decisions by two generations, we use a variety of standard twins methods. The estimates provide support for the model, including that individuals born into larger families provide less financial support to parents and are more likely to co-reside with parents when young, but do not have different savings rates. We also found that inter-generational co-residence is lower the higher the incomes of the young but higher when the parents have higher incomes and that inter-generational co-residence, net of income, is associated with higher savings for the young but not higher savings for the old. Our results highlight the importance of high housing costs and the prevalence of inter-generational shared housing as key reasons for the higher savings rates for the urban young in China, but also indicate that in urban China neither old-age support by the young nor the one-child policy are major factors.
    Keywords: Co-residence, savings, China
    JEL: D1 D12 D14 J12 O12
    Date: 2014–04
  13. By: Kym Anderson; Anna Strutt
    Abstract: As China becomes more industrial and urbanized, it is likely to become more dependent over time on imports of (especially land-intensive) farm products, most notably livestock feedstuffs. If farmers are slow to adjust to their declining competitiveness, for example by obtaining off-farm employment, the farm-nonfarm household income gap may increase. A decline in food self-sufficiency may be perceived as undermining national food security, and a persistent farm-nonfarm income gap as contributing to social unrest. In these circumstances, what offsetting or compensating policy options should the government consider for ensuring adequate long-term food security and less income inequality? This paper evaluates China's historical record since 1980 and then projects China's economy to 2030, using the GTAP global economy-wide model. It draws on past policy experiences of both China and more-advanced economies to evaluate prospective interventions by government to address food security and income inequality concerns. The potential effects of some of those are estimated for 2030, again using the GTAP model. The paper concludes by suggesting alternative ways to achieve the fundamental objectives of national food security and less rural-urban income inequality, namely via generic social safety nets and improved rural infrastructure.
    Keywords: China's economic growth; Food security; Farm productivity growth; Global economy-wide model projections
    JEL: D58 F13 F15 F17 Q17
    Date: 2014
  14. By: Wensheng Kang; Ronald A. Ratti
    Abstract: This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market, and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index the interdependence between these variables is rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market increases. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the U.S. is smaller and largely flat over time.
    Keywords: China's policy uncertainty, China's stock market return, Oil shocks, Structural VAR
    JEL: E44 G15 P40 Q43
    Date: 2014–04
  15. By: Omar Masood; Priya Darshini Pun Thapa; Olivier Levyne; Frederic Teulon; Rabeb Triki
    Abstract: This study aims to give the analysis of the determinants of banks’ profitability in the Kingdom of China over the period 2003-2007. This paper investigates the co-integration and causal relationship between total assets (TA) and total equity (TE) of Chinese banks. The analysis employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen’s co integration test, Granger causality test. Analyzing the co integration and other tests on Chinese banking sector over the study period, the relationships between the two variables are examined. The empirical results have found strong evidence that the variables are co-integrated.
    Keywords: banking; bank profitability; total assets; total equity; co-integration
    Date: 2014–04–28
  16. By: Roman N. Abramov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The article analyzes of the content and context of research on occupations and professions in Soviet sociology from 1960 to the 1980s. It describes the key topics of observations of professional groups, gives definitions of occupations and professions in Soviet social sciences, and analyzes ideological and censorship restrictions for research and publishing. Sociology of occupations and professions as a separate disciplinary field appeared in Russia only in the late 1990s. Before this time, these topics were integrated into social structure and social stratification observations, research of the working class, intelligentsia, industrial sociology and sociology of organizations. From the 1960s Soviet sociologists searched for new explanatory models and they decided that socio-professional groups were the best criterion for a Soviet social structure description. During 1970-80s researchers of Soviet social structures debated about the place of professional groups. This article analyzes these and other features of sociology of occupations and professions in the USSR. The analysis is based on the bibliographical observations and interviews with Soviet sociologists. This project was supported by Science Foundation of NRU HSE.
    Keywords: professions, history of sociology, occupations, soviet sociology, USSR
    JEL: B24
    Date: 2014
  17. By: Kovachev, Goran
    Abstract: Accounting over 10% of country’s GDP, agriculture has substantial role in Macedonian economy. As a viable, yet risky economic sector, it is of great significance for this paper to show to the policymakers that creating special financial (sometimes state owned) institutions for lending in agriculture is a key element in helping farmers to enhance agricultural activities, thus to obtain self-sustainability. One such institution already operating in Macedonia is Agricultural Credit Discount Fund (ACDF). The main purpose of this study is to emphasize the importance of ACDF’s operations in expanding the outreach and accelerating economic welfare of farmers and rural poor. Brief analysis of ACDF’s performances in the last 10 years shows that the Fund operating in close collaboration with the participating financial institutions and the Government has significantly succeeded in increasing banks’ agriculture credit portfolio by 204%, decreasing interest rates by 8.5 percentage points and supporting over 15,000 jobs or about 1.6% of nation’s work force. The general conclusion of the study suggests that ACDF’s ‘modus operandi’ could be a guideline for similar institutions in developing and transition countries, as it creates prerequisites for easier access to finance, stronger competition among banks and increased income to its beneficiaries.
    Keywords: agriculture; Macedonia; agro-finance; Agricultural Credit Discount Fund; Macedonian Bank for Development Promotion
    JEL: E5 G2 H8 Q1
    Date: 2014–03–31
  18. By: Misunova Hudakova, Ivana; Misun, Juraj
    Abstract: Companies that are exposed to an uncertain changing business environment must be able to adapt and change in order to achieve some compliance with the subject of business carried out and the objectives with the ambient conditions. Also these conditions can be a source of threats for small and medium-sized enterprises. In this context, we emphasize the adaptability of the enterprise. It is the active joining of resolving the conflict between the business entity and its environment. Signs of this joining we follow through changes as a transition of stability on one level to a whole new level of stability, which can cause a change in the company's original strategy to a new strategy.
    Keywords: adaptability, awareness, flexibility, value chain, the response.
    JEL: M21 M29
    Date: 2014

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