nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2014‒03‒30
sixteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Understanding Chinese consumption: The impact of hukou By Dreger, Christian; Wang, Tongsan; Zhang, Yanqun
  2. La politique industrielle et de l’innovation de la Russie et de la Chine : quelle place pour la protection de l’environnement ? The Place of Environmental Protection within Industrial and Innovation policy in Russia and in China By Guillem Achermann; Zeting LIU
  3. Does Schooling Pay? Evidence from China By La, Vincent
  4. Analysing the Short Run Effects of China’s Economic Reform Agenda By Rod Tyers
  5. The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach By Hartwell , Christopher A.
  6. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China: An up-to-date climate policy assessment By Hübler, Michael; Löschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian
  7. La politique industrielle et de l’innovation chinoise dans la transition vers la croissance verte CHINESE INDUSTRIAL AND INNOVATION POLICIES IN THE TRANSITION TOWARD GREEN GROWTH By Zeting LIU
  8. Prospects for the development of innovative processes management information base in the Russian economy By Alexander Abroskin
  9. Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms By Sandra Poncet; Jérôme Héricourt
  10. Multi-Product Firms, Product Scope, and the Policy of Export Tax Rebate By Han, Jianyu; Ma, Yeqing; Tan, Yong
  11. The rise and fall of multinational enterprises in Vietnam: survival analysis using census data during 2000-2011 By Tien Manh Vu; Hiroyuki Yamada; Tsunehiro Otsuki
  12. Total factor productivity estimation for Polish manufacturing industry: A comparison of alternative methods By Malgorzata Sulimierska
  13. Conceptual Framework of the active ageing policies in employment in Poland By Izabela Styczynska
  14. Switching Cost and Deposit Demand in China By Chun-Yu Ho
  15. Innovations environnementales et transition des territoires industriels et portuaires : le cas de Gdansk, Pologne Environmental Innovation and the Economic Transition of the Industrial and port areas: The case of Gdnsk, Poland By Maria Lorek
  16. Impact of Political Regime Shift on Stock Returns of Oligarch Firms By Zadorozhna Olha; Zaderey Natalia

  1. By: Dreger, Christian (BOFIT); Wang, Tongsan (BOFIT); Zhang, Yanqun (BOFIT)
    Abstract: Capital investment and exports have driven China’s remarkable economic growth for decades, but recent trends have put pressure on the government to move to a more consumption-driven model of growth. Unfortunately, China’s institutional framework does little at the moment to spur household consumption. While the country’s weak social security setup and highly regulated financial markets are routinely cited as disincentives to private consumption, the role of the hukou household registration system in depressing consumption gets less attention. Controlling for income levels on datasets from 2002 and 2007, we show the average propensity to consume is significantly lower for internal migrants to cities. Official figures suggest that China in 2013 had about 260 million internal migrants. These individuals are often separated from their families for long periods and denied access to public services in the cities where they work. The government’s current urbanization strategy calls for increasing migrant populations in cities, which, in the absence of hukou reform, is likely to further dampen consumption.
    Keywords: Chinese private consumption; urbanization strategy; hukou system
    JEL: E21 O15 R23
    Date: 2014–02–17
  2. By: Guillem Achermann (GREI/CLERSE); Zeting LIU (GREI/CLERSE)
    Abstract: La Russie comme la Chine font partie des BRIC. Ces deux pays sont aussi parmi les plus grands pollueurs du monde. Depuis les années de transition, elles ont toutes les deux mis sur pied des politiques scientifiques industrielles pour encadrer leur croissance économique. Cependant, bien que chaque pays possède une politique dirigiste, celle-ci ne s’est pas construite sur les mêmes bases, que ce soit sur le plan technologique ou économique. En effet, ayant partagé un grand nombre de points communs en termes d’organisation administrative et économique, ces deux pays possèdent des transitions très distinctes. En analysant et comparant les politiques environnementales et industrielles de la Russie et de la Chine, cette étude s’interroge sur les effets des différentes transitions initiées et de leurs conséquences sur les trajectoires industrielles et plus particulièrement sur les dynamiques environnementales. Russia and China are part of the BRIC countries. They are also among those most pollutant countries in the world. Since the transition periods, they both have been carrying out scientific and industrial policies to monitor their economic growth. Although each of them has an interventionist policy, these policies are not built on the same technological and economic foundation. Indeed, while sharing a lot of common points in terms of administrative and economic organization, these two countries have gone through different transition modes. By analyzing and comparing the Russian and Chinese environmental and industrial policies, this study sheds light on the effects of their different transition modes and the consequences of their industrial process and in particular of their environmental dynamics.
    Keywords: transition, politique industrielle, politique d’innovation, protection environnementale, Russie, Chine, transition, industrial policy, innovation policy, environmental protection, Russia, China
    JEL: O13 O38 O57
    Date: 2013–09
  3. By: La, Vincent
    Abstract: The effect of education on wages has been a widely explored topic. This paper will contribute to the existing literature by studying the causal effect of education on wages in China, a context which has been far less studied. China's compulsory education laws and minimum age labor laws provide potentially exogenous changes in educational attainment. The first goal of this paper will be to estimate the private return to education in China (the effect of an extra year of individual educational attainment on wages). Using China's compulsory education law as an instrument for individual educational attainment, we fail to find a statistically significant return on education in aggregate. However, using China's minimum age labor law as an instrument, we find that an increase in individual educational attainment by one year raises earnings by about 9%.
    Keywords: Labor Market, Education, Effect of Education on Wages, Private Return to Schooling
    JEL: I20 J16 J30
    Date: 2014–03–11
  4. By: Rod Tyers
    Abstract: China’s size limits its capacity to source further growth from exports and so the inevitable turn inward is in progress, as suggested by declining gross flows on its balance of payments relative to its GDP. Thus far, key home policy drivers have been fiscal expansion and public investment, though provincial indebtedness will constrain these in future and growth will be driven by the government’s reform agenda, which includes further industrial reform and “internationalisation”. The short run effects of these domestic policy and external shocks are examined using a model of the Chinese economy that takes explicit account of oligopoly behaviour. The results confirm that further fiscal expansions, even with large public investment components, will not contribute the major share of new growth, but industrial reform in heavy manufacturing and services would reduce costs and foster growth in output, private consumption and modern sector employment. At the same time, while China’s private investment, and hence its overall performance, will be sensitive to the uncertain effects of internationalisation increased nominal exchange rate flexibility would offer a reliable cushion.
    Keywords: China, fiscal policy, industry policy reform, oligopoly, price caps, privatisation, internationalisation, capital account liberalization
    JEL: C54 C68 D58 E17 E62 L13 L43
    Date: 2014–03
  5. By: Hartwell , Christopher A. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The volatility of financial markets has been a relevant topic for transition economies, as the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have seemingly endured high levels of volatility in their financial sectors during the transition process. But what have been the determinants of this financial volatility? This paper posits that institutional changes, and in particular the volatility of various crucial institutions, have been the major causes of financial volatility in transition. Examining 20 transition economies over various time-frames within the period 1993–2012, this paper applies the GARCH family of models to examine financial volatility as a function of institutional volatility. The results from the EGARCH and TGARCH modelling supports the thesis that more advanced and more stable institutions help to dampen financial sector volatility at their levels, while institutional volatility feeds through directly to financial sector volatility in transition.
    Keywords: institutions; financial sector; volatility; transition; GARCH; EGARCH; TGARCH
    JEL: G20 O43 P30
    Date: 2014–02–13
  6. By: Hübler, Michael; Löschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian
    Abstract: We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy- induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely. --
    Keywords: China,climate policy,ETS,linking,CGE
    JEL: C68 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Zeting LIU (Lab.RII, ULCO/Clersé-UMR8019, Université Lille Nord de France, RRI)
    Abstract: En appuyant sur une analyse historique depuis la première prise en conscience de problème environnemental en Chine dans les années 1970 jusqu’à ce jour, cette étude montre que 1) la politique de la protection environnementale ne peut pas fonctionner quand elle est déconnectée des politiques publiques dans le domaine de l’économie. 2) Si la promotion de l’innovation verte en Chine est considérée comme une moyenne pour remédier le déséquilibre environnemental, elle est aussi un outil de réaliser son ambition de devenir leader mondial dans la révolution verte. By using a historical analysis from the first shot in conscience environmental problem in China in the 1970s until today, this study shows that 1) the policy of environmental protection won’t work if disconnected to public policy in the area of economy. 2) While the promotion of green innovation in China is considered a medium to address the environmental imbalance, it is also a tool to achieve its ambition to become a world leader in the green revolution.
    Keywords: politique industrielle et d’innovation, politique de la protection, environnementale, croissance vert, révolution verte, Chine, industrial and innovation policy, environmental protection, green growth, green revolution, China
    JEL: O31 O38 O33 P11 Q01
    Date: 2014–02
  8. By: Alexander Abroskin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The article is devoted to topical issues of the formation of modern innovative processes management information base in the Russian economy. The article discusses the topical problems of effective management organization, associated with the definition and structuring of its object, classification of institutional units relative to the innovative segment of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the methodology of modern innovation statistics as a basis for obtaining the primary data and the formation of a system of indicators used in the innovative processes management. The prospects for the development of innovative processes management information base in the Russian economy are analyzed from the standpoint of further improving the statistical methodology, increasing the materiality level of formed for management indicators and extension of management tasks completed through the use of advanced analytical and predictive methods and models. The latter aspect is considered in terms of prospects for the use of complex analysis and forecasting innovation processes approach provided for by the modern version of the System of National Accounts.
    Keywords: analysis, innovations, innovative processes, information base, methodology, controlled object, materiality of information, System of National Accounts, management.
    JEL: O11
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Sandra Poncet (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Jérôme Héricourt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, EQUIPPE - ECONOMIE QUANTITATIVE, INTEGRATION, POLITIQUES PUBLIQUES ET ECONOMETRIE - Université Lille I - Sciences et technologies - Université Lille II - Droit et santé - Université Lille III - Sciences humaines et sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France)
    Abstract: This paper studies how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigates whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the 2000-2006 period. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that the value exported by firms, as well as their probability of entering new export markets, decrease for destinations with a higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development seems to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide micro-founded evidence that financial constraints may play a key role in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.
    Keywords: Exchange rate volatility ; Financial development ; Exports
    Date: 2013–03
  10. By: Han, Jianyu; Ma, Yeqing; Tan, Yong
    Abstract: Following Nocke(2012), we develop a model to explain how firms allocate their organizational capital to different products. Using the Chinese export and tax rebate data, we find that the reduction of export tax rebate causes contraction of product scope , and the less competitive products are more likely to be dropped.
    Keywords: Following Nocke(2012), we develop a model to explain how firms allocate their organizational capital to different products. Using the Chinese export and tax rebate data, we find that the reduction of export tax rebate causes contraction of product scope , and the less competitive products are more likely to be dropped.
    JEL: F10 F14 L10
    Date: 2014–03–23
  11. By: Tien Manh Vu (Ph.D Candidate, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University); Hiroyuki Yamada (Associate Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University); Tsunehiro Otsuki (Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: Using census data from 2000-2011, we examined the survival of multinational enterprises (MNEs) located in Vietnam using Cox hazard models with time-variant covariates. Beside enterprises' characteristics and performance, we found that the firm characteristics, structure of the ownership and nationalities of the foreign partners are associated with the probability of exiting, which suggests that a joint-venture between a foreign partner and a domestic non-state owned enterprise is more likely to exit than other types of MNEs. Also, a firm with a greater capital share owned by foreign partners was found to survive longer. Furthermore, time cost due to bureaucratic procedures and inspections, among indicators of local government performance, was found to be associated with a greater probability of MNEs exiting.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; Multinational enterprises; Survival; Ownership; Government performance; Vietnam
    JEL: L24 L25 P27
    Date: 2014–03
  12. By: Malgorzata Sulimierska (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: The concept of total factor productivity (TFP) and its measurement have been of interest to researchers for more than half a century, and are intensively discussed topics in debate on economic growth1. This chapter discusses the different problems related to methodologies for estimating TFP at the establishment (sector and firm) levels. These include simultaneity and selection bias, deflated input and output values, and endogeneity of product choice. It then describes existing techniques for overcoming these methodological problems - specifically, it is shown that these are addressed at sector level by computing TFP using a semi parametric technique at the establishment level. A manufacturing sector data is used at three levels of aggregation for Poland for the period 1995 to 2007; the results indicate significant TFP growth and also intensive dynamic changes to productivity over time. The results from three different techniques - index measures (non-parametric), parametric production function estimation (General Method of Moment - GMM) and production function – to account for endogeniety (semi-parametric) provide consistent results. This suggests that the estimates are sensitive to the technique and definitions of variables used, and indicate the biases related to traditional TFP estimations.sensitive to fat tails than climate policy based on CRRA utility.
    Keywords: Total Factor Productivity, Manufacturing
    JEL: L6 D2
    Date: 2014–03
  13. By: Izabela Styczynska
    Abstract: The aim of this work is to present an in depth understanding of the conceptual framework of active ageing policies, which have been created and implemented in Poland. The discussion of active ageing in employment in Poland started relatively late. The first discussions on the unfavourable situation of elderly employment emerged only in the second half of the 1990s, when the debate on the pension system reform started. While only a few ageing policies were developed at the national level during that time, several interesting initiatives were undertaken at a regional level and in the third sector. They were mostly focused on productive ageing and the problems associated with the economic activation of people over 50. The intensive implementation of the active ageing policies in Poland started in 2012, during the European Year of Active Ageing. At present, there is an intense discussion on policies addressed to the elderly, which concentrate not only on the activation of the labour market, but also on healthy, active and socially inclusive ageing, education andcivil engagement. This paper concludes that despite intense work being done by public authorities, the concept still needs a deeper implementation - especially at the regional level. Furthermore, close observation and evaluation of the activation programmes is still missing and the identification and implementation of good practices which are already being developed in other European countries is under-used.
    Keywords: Active Ageing, Elderly, Public Policy
    JEL: I38 J14 J48
    Date: 2014–03
  14. By: Chun-Yu Ho (Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of consumer demand for deposits in which banks provide differentiated products and product characteristics that evolve over time. Existing consumers are forward-looking and incur a fixed cost for switching banks, whereas incoming consumers are forward-looking but do not incur any cost for joining a bank. The main finding is that consumers prefer banks with more employees and branches. The switching cost is approximately 0.8% of the deposit's value, which leads the static model to bias the demand estimates. The dynamic model shows that the price elasticity over a long time horizon is substantially larger than the same elasticity over a short time horizon. Counterfactual experiments with a dynamic monopoly show that reducing the switching cost has a comparable competitive effect on bank pricing as a result of reducing the dominant position of the monopoly.
    Keywords: Banks in China, Demand Estimation, Switching Cost
    JEL: G21 L10
    Date: 2014–03
  15. By: Maria Lorek (GREI/CLERSE)
    Abstract: Les innovations environnementales (techniques de capture et de stockage des polluants, énergies renouvelables, nouveaux matériaux, nouveaux carburants, etc.) disposent d’un potentiel économique considérable permettant d’impulser, de nourrir et enfin de préserver une croissance économique plus durable. Prenant l’exemple de la ville de Gdansk qui, depuis une longue période, est marquée par la présence de l’industrie lourde, nous allons nous concentrer sur la reconversion de son territoire après la crise de l’industrie lourde. L’émergence des activités de l’« économie verte » (ex. récupération, réutilisation des déchets) et le développement des innovations environnementales s’inscrivent dans le prolongement de cette reconversion. Environmental innovations (technical capture and storage of pollutants, renewable energy, new materials, new fuels, etc.) have considerable economic potential to enhance, to feed and to preserve more sustainable economic growth. Taking the example of the city of Gdansk, which has been influenced by the heavy industry since long years ago, we present the reconversion of its territory by focusing on the emergence of the activities inspired by “green economy” (eg, recovery, reusef waste), the development of environmental innovations and the creation of The Baltic Eco-Energy Cluster in 2007. All these transformations allow this high industrial concentration to transform into another dynamic state in order to make improvements by the amelioration of industrial processes and / or the performance of the products or services derived while contributing to reduce the environmental impact of industrial activities.
    Keywords: innovation environnementale, transition territoriale, territoire industriel et portuaire, Gdansk
    JEL: O31 L52 Q5
    Date: 2013–10
  16. By: Zadorozhna Olha; Zaderey Natalia
    Abstract: We study the evolution of the stock prices of 17 politically connected firms around the time of the Orange revolution and two other crucial political events (2010 Presidential elections and the arrest of Yuliya Tymoshenko) in Ukraine. Using an event-study approach we find that political connections do matter in Ukraine. Companies that are strongly linked with the two major Ukrainian parties (Orange coalition and Party of Regions) are sensitive to shifts of the political regime.
    JEL: G14 P16 P34 D72 D73
    Date: 2013–07–05

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