nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2014‒03‒01
eighteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. The Role of China in Asia's Evolution to Global Economic Prominence By Dilip K Das
  2. A Policy Perspective On The Russian Technology Platforms By Liliana Proskuryakova; Dirk Meissner; Pavel Rudnik
  3. The effect of regulatory institutions on macroeconomic growth in Russia By Nikiforova, Vera; Valahov , Dmitriy; Nikiforov , Aleksandr
  4. The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic By Mahmoud, Toman Omar; Rapoport, Hillel; Steinmayr, Andreas; Trebesch, Christoph
  6. Interest Rate Determination in China: Past, Present, and Future By Dong He; Honglin Wang; Xiangrong Yu
  7. Technology Parks Potential for Small and Medium Enterprises By Anna V. Vilisova; Qiang Fu
  8. The effectiveness of simple homogeneous commodity procurement under rigid govermental regulation: the case of granulated sugar procurement in Russia By Andrey Yakovlev; Aleksandra Bashina; Olga Demidova
  9. The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China’s CDM Wind Projects By Tian Tang; David Popp
  10. Why Is There No Income Gap Between the Hui Muslim Minority and the Han Majority in Rural Ningxia, China? By Gustafsson, Björn Anders; Sai, Ding
  12. What direction for reforms in China? By Gros, Daniel
  13. Concealed Ownership of Contractors, Manipulation of Tenders and the Allocation of Public Procurement Contracts By Jan Palguta
  14. Regional determinants of German FDI in the Czech Republic : evidence from a gravity model approach By Schäffler, Johannes; Hecht, Veronika; Moritz, Michael
  15. The impact of funding models and foreign bank ownership on bank credit growth : is Central and Eastern Europe different ? By Feyen, Erik; Letelier, Raquel; Love, Inessa; Maimbo, Samuel Munzele; Rocha, Roberto
  16. Adjustment of the Vietnamese Labour Market in Time of Economic fluctuations and Structural Changes By Xavier Oudin; Laure Pasquier-Doumer; Thai Pham Minh; Laure Pasquier-Doumer; Dat Vu Hoang
  17. Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve: IS-MP-IA model and Taylor rule applied to some CESEE economies By Josheski , Dushko
  18. Former Soviet Union Countries and European Union: Overcoming the Energy Efficiency Gap By Yulia Raskina

  1. By: Dilip K Das
    Abstract: The objective of this article is to show how China's rapid growth was instrumental in integrating Asian economies with each other and mutually supporting rise of a dynamic Asia. It demonstrates the thorough structural transformations that the Chinese and Asian economies underwent over the last three decades. In a short span of three decades Chinese economy made a sizeable regional and global niche for itself. China's vertiginous growth became instrumental in integrating the real economies in the region. China and the neighbouring Asian economies influenced and shaped each other's economic evolution. Trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and vertically integrated production networks were the principal channels of market-led integration. China's rise as a regional economic power, before becoming a global one, was a substantially significant economic event. A defining moment in China's economic relationship with its Asian neighbours was the outbreak of the regional financial crisis in 1997–98. Similarly when the global financial crisis (2007–09) struck, China's macroeconomic fundamentals were strong, and it helped propel regional growth. In several other important ways, China sways not only the regional economies but also the global economy.
    Keywords: China’s emergence; FDI; Integration; regional role; strategy; trade
  2. By: Liliana Proskuryakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia)); Dirk Meissner (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia)); Pavel Rudnik (Russian Ministry for Economic Development)
    Abstract: The paper analyses the evolution of the ‘technology platform’ concept starting from an instrument for R&D and innovation management used by companies towards a policy instrument used for technology and economic development at national and international level. The authors propose a theoretical approach to technology platforms (TPs) as a policy concept and institutional framework useful for policy making in the sphere of science, technology and innovation. Furthermore the paper offers an analysis of the newly established Russian Technology Platforms that have the potential for advancing the national innovation system. The case-study of Russian Technology Platforms is aimed at analyzing technology platforms in Russia as a science, technology and innovation (STI) policy tool from theoretical and practical perspectives. The study addresses the question “What is the place of the Russian TPs in the national STI policy mix?” and outlines lessons learnt from the experience of the European technology platforms. Conclusions are drawn on the prospects of the TPs as an STI policy tool in Russia
    Keywords: technology platform, science and technology policy, innovation policy, regional development, economic development, public private partnerships
    JEL: O32 O33 O38
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Nikiforova, Vera; Valahov , Dmitriy; Nikiforov , Aleksandr
    Abstract: The paper analyses common Russian practice. The structural changes in the Russian economy are further stimulated by the improvement of the government regulation policy. The paper examines the factors and effects of the general economic growth and the integration processes. The paper examines the institutional changes in the government policy of economic regulation aimed at improving the country’s performance in the world financial system.
    Keywords: economic growth; government regulation; integration processes; institutional changes
    JEL: E4 E40 E44 G1 G18
    Date: 2014–02–16
  4. By: Mahmoud, Toman Omar (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Steinmayr, Andreas (University of St. Gallen); Trebesch, Christoph (University of Munich)
    Abstract: Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the late 1990s strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade and was eventually instrumental in bringing down the last ruling Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context studied and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia.
    Keywords: emigration, political institutions, elections, social networks, information transmission, cultural diffusion
    JEL: F22 D72 O1
    Date: 2014–02
  5. By: Andrey Kaukin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Georgy Idrisov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The paper contains the results of theoretical development and empirical verification of spatial gravity model of Russian trade. The authors conclude that the spatial variables and especially the location of the state border checkpoints have a significant effect on the volume and routes of Russian imports.
    Keywords: international trade, gravity model, border checkpoints
    JEL: F1 F2
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Dong He (Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Honglin Wang (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Xiangrong Yu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: How should we think about the determination of interest rates in China after interest rate liberalisation? Would effective deposit rates, lending rates and bond yields move higher or lower? We argue that interest rates in a liberalised environment would need to be anchored by the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is to achieve the objective of price and output (or employment) stabilisation, the policy rate should be set close to China's equilibrium or natural rate. We sketch three preliminary approaches to estimation of the natural rate in China. Based on these we argue that interest rates on large deposits in the banking system and short-term money market rates would likely to move higher following interest rate liberalisation. The effect on effective lending rates is somewhat ambiguous as the contestability of the banking sector and the competition in bond markets are likely to increase after interest rate liberalisation. We leave the determination of the curvature of the yield curve to future research.
    Keywords: Interest Rate, Monetary Policy, Economic Reform, Chinese Economy, The People¡¦s Bank of China (PBC)
    JEL: E43 E52 O53 P24
    Date: 2014–02
  7. By: Anna V. Vilisova; Qiang Fu
    Abstract: Being one of the most important factors of economic growth of the country, innovations became one of the key vectors in Russian economic policy. In this field technology parks are one of the most effective instruments which can provide growth of innovative activity in sectors, regions and economies. In this paper, we made a model that allows us to evaluate the effect of technology parks in the economy of the country and its potential for small and medium enterprises. The model is based on a system of coupled equations, whose parameters are estimated on the statistical data that reflect the activity of the economic entity, in an environment of this entity the technology parks are acting. Typically, there are regression equations linking a number of economic factors with some output indicators. We analyzed the property of increasing the share of surviving small and medium enterprises for Russian conditions as one of the effect of technology parks and built a working model for estimating the maximum (limit) values of the effect.
    Date: 2014–02
  8. By: Andrey Yakovlev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksandra Bashina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Olga Demidova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In the 2000s the Russian government considered electronic auctions (e-auctions) as the best way to procure goods for public needs. In this paper we confirm this proposition using an empirical dataset of contracts for the procurement of granulated sugar in Russia in 2011. Our data shows that unit prices are higher in the case of long-term contracts. This result can be explained by the rigidity of public procurement regulations as Russian legislation allows only fixed price contracts. Under these conditions suppliers can participate in public procurement tenders for long-term contracts only if their price includes a “risk premium” covering additional expenses of the supplier in case of an unfavorable turn in the market. Our analysis shows that sugar prices in Russian public procurement are lower for contracts with higher volume. These results are in the line with conclusions of previous studies of public procurement in other countries. The influence of competition measured by the number of suppliers participating in the procurement procedure has a quadratic form. It means that the effect of a new participant is lower when number of competitors is higher and vice versa. Our analysis also shows that there are essential distinctions in the influence of the same factors on contract prices for competitive procedures and void auctions
    Keywords: public procurement, e-auctions, procurement effectiveness
    JEL: H57 P35
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Tian Tang; David Popp
    Abstract: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a project-based carbon trade mechanism that subsidizes the users of climate-friendly technologies and encourages technology transfer. The CDM has provided financial support for a large share of Chinese wind projects since 2002. Using pooled cross-sectional data of 486 registered CDM wind projects in China from 2002 to 2009, we examine the determinants of technological change in wind power from a learning perspective. We estimate the effects of different channels of learning—learning through R&D in wind turbine manufacturing, learning from previous experience of installation, and learning through the network interaction between project developer and turbine manufacturer—on technological change, measured as reductions in projected costs or as increased capacity factor across CDM wind projects. While we find that a manufacturer’s R&D and previous installation experience matter, interactions between wind turbine manufacturers and wind project developer lead to the largest cost reductions. Whereas existing literature suggests that wind power firms can learn from the experience of other wind farm developers, our results indicate that wind power firms mainly learn from their own experience and that knowledge spillovers mostly occur within certain partnerships between wind project developer and foreign turbine manufacturers in China’s wind power industry.
    JEL: O33 O38 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2014–02
  10. By: Gustafsson, Björn Anders (University of Gothenburg); Sai, Ding (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
    Abstract: Using a household sample survey for 2006 we show that the Hui population in the rural part of Ningxia autonomous region of China is disadvantaged compared to the Han majority as regards length of education and household per capita wealth. Yet there is no gap in average disposable income between the two ethnic groups and poverty rates are very similar. This paradox is due to members of Hui households earning more income outside the farm than members of Han households. Particularly young male Hui living in poor villages have a remarkably high likelihood of migrating, thereby bringing home income to their households.
    Keywords: China, ethnic minorities, Hui ethnicity, income, poverty, migration
    JEL: D31 J15 R23
    Date: 2014–02
  11. By: Alexander Radygin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Revold Entov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The article focuses on the analysis of the evolution of contemporary theoretic approaches to the choice of an optimal form of ownership, and the corresponding estimation of privatization in the context of the advantages and disadvantages of the public and private sectors of the national economy. Various interpretations of the fundamental privatization theorem are considered: based on the principal-agent relationship; based on the comparison of the structure of information flows; the combination of ownership rights and contractual rights; consideration of sociopolitical factors, etc. The latest trends in Russia’s de-statization policy in 2010-2013 are analyzed in the context of ‘reluctant privatization’, with special emphasis on the asymmetry between the statization and privatization processes.
    Keywords: privatization, government failures, state policy, public choice, allocational efficiency, information
    JEL: H82 K11 L32 L33
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Gros, Daniel
    Abstract: Following the recent ‘third plenum’ in China, CEPS Director Daniel Gros finds that China has reached a difficult crossroads in terms of making the necessary reforms that will foster continued growth and productivity. Continuing in the direction that so far has been followed with astounding success, namely giving the market a greater role and opening to the rest of the world, might no longer be sufficient. He points out, for example, that combating pollution requires more state intervention, not less. And similarly, strengthening a huge, potentially unstable, financial system requires stronger oversight and some continuing separation from the global financial system. Navigating this change in the right direction will be crucial not only for China, but also for the global economy.
    Date: 2014–01
  13. By: Jan Palguta
    Abstract: This study provides evidence of a strong link between two channels facilitating rentextraction in public procurement: between concealing the ultimate ownership of contractors and manipulation of the anticipated value of tenders. Using data on more than 15 300 tenders awarded to joint-stock companies in the Czech Republic during 2005 - 2010, the study shows that tender value manipulation has been incentivized by the 2006 procurement reform, which established several discontinuities in the anticipated value of tenders. After the reform, manipulation increased much more for tenders awarded to contractors with anonymous owners as opposed to traceable owners. Contractors in manipulated tenders needed to underbid fewer firms in order to win procurements and their winning bids for comparable contracts were, on average, higher than before reform. The results imply disrupted optimality of contractor choice and reduced efficiency of procurement. The results are strongest for contracts on services and construction works, which traditionally conceal rentextraction more easily.
    Keywords: public procurement; contracts; corruption; rent-seeking; concealed ownership; forensic economics;
    JEL: D72 D73 H72
    Date: 2014–01
  14. By: Schäffler, Johannes (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Hecht, Veronika (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Moritz, Michael (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: The attractiveness for the location of multinational firms is seen as a crucial issue for the development and prosperity of regions. This article focuses on a two-country relationship and deals with the regional distribution of German multinational firms and their affiliates in the Czech Republic. A new dataset established by the IAB covers information on the basic population of cross-border foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, thereby exceeding the number of observations in previously used databases by far. On the basis of 3,894 FDI projects the regional determinants of German cross-border investments in the Czech Republic are analysed for both the home and the host country. Alternative specifications of the gravity model are used in order to investigate the regional distribution of common investment projects that are calculated as a combination of a headquarters in a German spatial planning region and an affiliate in a Czech NUTS 3 region. Concerning the explanatory variables a distinction is made between three groups of factors: first, market size and agglomeration features of the regions; second, attributes representing the distance between the headquarters in Germany and the affiliates in the Czech Republic; and third, regional labour market characteristics. While the findings are generally in line with theoretical expectations, differences emerge between manufacturing FDI and services FDI.
    JEL: F23 R12 F15
    Date: 2014–02–24
  15. By: Feyen, Erik; Letelier, Raquel; Love, Inessa; Maimbo, Samuel Munzele; Rocha, Roberto
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the factors affecting protracted credit contraction in the wake of the global financial crisis. The paper applies panel vector autoregressions to a global panel that consists of quarterly data for 41 countries for the period 2000-2011 and documents that domestic private credit growth is highly sensitive to cross-border funding shocks around the world. This relationship is significantly stronger in Central and Eastern Europe, a region with considerably stronger foreign presence, higher cross-border funding, and elevated loan-to-deposit ratios compared with the rest of the world. The paper shows that high foreign ownership per se does not appear to explain credit response differences to foreign funding shocks. Rather, there is a stronger response in countries that exhibit high loan-to-deposit ratios and a high reliance on foreign funding relative to local deposits. The results suggest that funding model differences were at the heart of the post-crisis credit contraction in several Central and Eastern European countries. These findings have important regulatory and supervisory implications for emerging countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as for other countries.
    Keywords: Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Deposit Insurance
    Date: 2014–02–01
  16. By: Xavier Oudin (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); Laure Pasquier-Doumer (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); Thai Pham Minh (VASS-CAF); Laure Pasquier-Doumer (DIAL, IRD, Paris); Dat Vu Hoang (VASS-CAF)
    Abstract: In this paper, we consider how labour market adjusts to economic fluctuations, considering structural transformation at work as well as short term changes. We utilise series calculated from population censuses and data published in the statistical yearbooks of GSO for long term series, and Labour Force Surveys from 2007 to 2012 for short term data. The paper highlights the deep transformation of the labour market in the last decades. The labour force has doubled in 25 years and the share of agriculture has declined below 50%. Labour supply absorption was thus one of the main challenges for the Vietnamese economy. The household sector has been the main job provider over the years, in agriculture as well as in non-farm activities. The labour market has adjusted to the recent economic slowdown through different channels. If unemployment does not rise, some people withdraw from the labour force and the number of non-active people has grown. The quantity of labour is also affected by a significant reduction of hours worked. While the non-farm sector generates more jobs for skilled workers, there is a shift of unskilled labour towards agriculture. Due to demographic factors, labour supply absorption and creation of new jobs become a less acute problem. As Vietnam benefits of the demographic dividend, the situation on the labour market should be favourable during the present decade to implement structural policies. _________________________________ Dans cet article, nous examinons les ajustements du marché du travail aux fluctuations économiques, compte tenu des transformations structurelles en cours ainsi que des changements à court terme. Nous utilisons pour cela des données des recensements de la population ou publiées dans les annuaires statistiques de l’Office Général de la Statistique pour les séries à long terme, et les enquêtes emploi conduites entre 2007 à 2012 pour les données à court terme. Cet article souligne la profonde transformation du marché du travail au cours des dernières décennies. La population active a doublé en 25 ans et la part de l'agriculture est passée en dessous du seuil de 50 %. L’absorption de l'offre de travail a donc été l'un des principaux défis pour l'économie vietnamienne sur cette période. Le secteur des entreprises familiales agricoles et non-agricoles a été le principal pourvoyeur d'emplois au cours de ces années. Le marché du travail s'est adapté au récent ralentissement économique à travers différents canaux. Le chômage est resté stable mais le nombre de personnes inactives a augmenté. La quantité de travail a également été affectée par une réduction significative du nombre d'heures travaillées. Alors que le secteur non agricole a généré plus d'emplois pour les travailleurs qualifiés, un flux de travailleurs non-qualifiés vers l’agriculture a été observé. En raison de facteurs démographiques, l'absorption de l'offre de travail et la création de nouveaux emplois ne sont plus le principal problème. En revanche, l’évolution récente du marché du travail appelle à la mise en oeuvre de politiques structurelles en vue d’améliorer les conditions de travail, la période étant particulièrement favorable pour mener ces politiques puisque le Vietnam profite actuellement du dividende démographique.
    Keywords: Labour Market– Long term and Short term Adjustment – Employment - Vietnam
    JEL: J11 J21 J81
    Date: 2014–02
  17. By: Josheski , Dushko
    Abstract: Applying IS-MP-IA model and the Taylor rule, this study finds that for selected CESEE economies (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Serbia), lower expected inflation rate, real exchange rate appreciation, a lower world interest rate which is calculated like a federal funds rate minus inflation in US, and more world output would help to increase output of the selected economies in the sample. A lower ratio of government consumption spending to GDP would also increase the output of the selected economies. Hence, fiscal prudence is needed, and the conventional approach of real depreciation to stimulate exports and raise real output does not apply to the selected CESEE economies. When private household consumption is in the model the coefficient on government spending to nominal GDP is insignificant implying that Ricardian equivalence does hold for the selected countries. These results are robust because they are controlled in the period of four decades from 1969 to 2013. Study uses 4 decadal dummies that control for each decade.
    Keywords: IS-MP-IA, Taylor Rule, Inflation targeting, monetary policy function, government spending to nominal GDP, world interest rates
    JEL: E52 F41
    Date: 2014–02
  18. By: Yulia Raskina
    Abstract: This paper evaluates convergence of energy intensity for the former USSR countries during 1995-2010. We divide these countries into three clubs and show convergence in income and in energy intensity for each club. We also demonstrate that rate of convergence is higher in countries with a low level of development.
    Date: 2014–02–20

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