nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2013‒12‒20
29 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Loan/Loss Provisioning in Emerging Europe: Precautionary or Pro-Cyclical? By John Bonin; Marko Kosak
  2. Sector-Level Productivity, Structural Change, and Rebalancing in China By Malhar Nabar; Kai Yan
  3. Model of currency integration involving the Republic of Belarus (in Russian) By Anastasiya Luzgina
  4. Prospects of economic and monetary integration of the CIS Member States By Anastasiya Luzgina
  5. Terms of Joining Russian Federation to World Trade Organization: Necessity and Compromises By Itskovich, Alexander U.
  6. Czech Agricultural Trade After EU Accession as a Reflexion of the Competitiveness of Czech Agriculture and Food Industry Under the EU Single Market and Changes in WTO Commitments By Doucha, Tomáš; Pohlová, Karina
  7. Transition Changes in Ex-Yugoslav Countries' Agrarian Trade Balances By Milanović, Milan R.; Stevanović, Simo; Radojević, Vuk
  8. Еко-управление в българското селското стопанство By Bachev, Hrabrin; Yovchevska, Plamena; Mitova, Dilyana; Toteva, Desislava; Mitov, Anton
  9. Macroeconomic Policy in Belarus after Currency Crisis: Challenges and Perspectives (in Russian) By Dzmitry Kruk
  10. The Outcome of Directed Lending in Belarus: Mitigating Recession of Damening Long-Run Growth? By Dzmitry Kruk; Kiryl Haiduk
  11. Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE By Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz
  12. Serbian Agriculture in Regional and European Integration By Zekić, Stanislav; Gajić, Milivoj; Matkovski, Bojan
  13. Regional Analysis of Agricultural and Food Trade of Serbia By Božić, Dragica; Nikolić, Marija M.
  14. Analyzıng And Valuıng Of The Export Multıplıcıty Of Azerbaıjan Republıc By Suleymanov, Elchin; Zeynalov, Ayaz; Mammadov, Rufat
  15. Vplyv intenzity konkurencie na stratégiu podniku By Zagorsek, Branislav
  16. Labour Market Developments and Social Welfare By Hermine Vidovic
  17. El desarrollo institucional en la Rumania post-comunista By Cristea, Ana Ionela
  18. Efficiency And Equity Impacts Of The Rental Market For Cropland In Vietnam And Sources Of Transaction Costs Impeding The Market By Huy, Hoang; Lyne, Michael; Ratna, Nazmun; Nuthall, Peter
  19. Serbia's Food Trade Competitiveness and PTAS in the EU Integration Process By Stojanovic, Zaklina; Mitrovic, Radmila Dragutinovic; Petrovic, Ivana Popovic
  20. Modelling the Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU: Trade and Agricultural Policies By Boulanger, Pierre; Ferrari, Emanuele; Michalek, Jerzy; Philippidis, George; Vinyes, Cristina
  21. One Mandarin Benefits the Whole Clan: Hometown Favoritism in an Authoritarian Regime By Quoc-Anh Do; Kieu-Trang Nguyen; Anh N. Tran
  22. Incorporating Judgments and Dealing with Data Uncertainty in Forecasting at the Czech National Bank By Jan Bruha; Tibor Hledik; Tomas Holub; Jiri Polansky; Jaromir Tonner
  23. Recent Trends and Challenges in the Labour Market in Belarus By Maryia Akulava; Gleb Shymanovich; Robert Kirchner
  24. An economic evaluation of the effects of business strategy of agro-food industry clusters on export competitiveness in Serbian transition economy By Vanka, Gajo M.; Heijman, Wim J.M.
  25. Trans Anadolu Dogal Gaz Boru Hattı Projesinin Ekonomik ve Stratejik Beklentileri By Suleymanov, Elchin; Hasanov, Fakhri; Nuri Aras, Osman
  26. South East Europe PTA's- Step Forward to EU or Not? By Simić, Jelena Damnjanović; Zakić, Vladimir
  27. Volatile World Milk Prices and Its Affect to National Market- Case of Serbian Milk Market By Popović, Rade; Radovanov, Boris; Jeremić, Marija
  28. Effects of SAA Import Liberalization on Serbian Agriculture By Tomić, Danilo; Popović, Vesna; Tandir, Nataša
  29. Basic Characteristics of the Raspberry Marketing Chain and Position of the Small Farmers in Serbia By Zaric, Vlade; Vasiljevic, Zorica; Vlahovic, Branislav; Andric, Jasmina

  1. By: John Bonin (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Marko Kosak (Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia)
    Abstract: The recent global financial crisis has generated considerable interest in reviewing the regulatory environment surrounding the banking sectors in most countries and proposals for changes designed to avoid such a severe outcome in the future. In this paper, we consider a particular aspect relevant to bank regulation, namely, the cyclicality of loan loss provisioning, in a region of emerging market economies. All eleven of the countries in our sample are currently new members of the European Union, the first group entering 2004 and the last country joining in 2013. Our time period from 1997 to 2010 covers roughly one and a half business cycles, starting with the impact of the Russian financial crisis and followed by a rapid growth of bank credit prior to the included global financial crisis. We find that the determinants of loan loss provisioning by banks in the region are similar to those found in the literature for other countries both developed and developing ones. We find evidence on income smoothing through provisioning and capital management by substitution. Unlike the results in much of the literature, we do not find statistically significant evidence of bank-specific pro-cyclicality, i.e., a strong positive relationship between provisioning and individual bank loan growth. However, we do find strong and robust evidence of macroeconomic pro-cyclicality, i.e., a strong positive relationship between provisioning and country GDP growth. Based on the innovative policy of dynamic (statistical) provisioning instrument adopted by Spanish regulators in 2000 to smooth provisioning over the business cycle, we draw implications for regulatory design specific to this region in which financial sectors are bank-centric and financial deepening is occurring.
    Date: 2013–12
  2. By: Malhar Nabar; Kai Yan
    Abstract: This paper studies structural changes underlying China's remarkable and unprecedented growth in recent years. While patterns of structural transformation across China's provinces are broadly in line with international experience, one important difference is in labor productivity differentials between services and the rest of the economy. Specifically, the gap between labor productivity in the rest of the economy and services has widened across China's provinces as they have moved from low to middle income, which is contrary to the trend observed in cross-country experience. Evidence from a panel of China's provinces suggests that credit and labor market frictions have inhibited labor productivity growth in services relatively more than in the rest of the economy. Reducing these frictions is essential for achieving the next stage of China's development, one in which the service sector will need to play a more prominent role as an engine of growth. The evidence also suggests that improving labor productivity in services will lift the consumption share of GDP, thereby advancing the needed rebalancing of domestic demand in China.
    Keywords: Labor productivity;China;Services sector;Demand;Economic growth;China, structural change, service sector, productivity
    Date: 2013–11–27
  3. By: Anastasiya Luzgina (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: The paper presents a model of foreign exchange integration in the post-Soviet countries. The author considers the possibility of introducing a supranational unit of account in the most economically integrated countries in the medium term, namely Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.
    Keywords: Belarus, CIS, currency integration, unit of account
    Date: 2013–08
  4. By: Anastasiya Luzgina (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: The paper lists reasons for participation of the Republic of Belarus in economic integration in the territory of the Former Soviet Union. The author looks at the prospects of convergence in economic and monetary spheres of the CIS member states.
    Keywords: Belarus, CIS, economic integration, convergence analysis, monetary integration
    Date: 2013–07
  5. By: Itskovich, Alexander U.
    Abstract: The negotiations about the joining of Russian Federation (RF) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) were carried on in the period from 1993 till up 2012 years. The President of Russia undersigned on July 21, 2012 a Federal Law ''About the Ratification of the Protocol about the Joining of RF to the Marrakesh Agreement of the World Trade Organization Foundation of April 15, 1994''. After this ratification Russia becomes a member of the WTO and assumes corresponding obligations established by multilateral trade agreements. The Protocol becomes also a part of the legal foundations of Russian Federation. In a case when the Protocol establishes some other rules than the Russian Law are used the rules of the Protocol. One of the problems, which dragged the process of negotiations, remained, besides the other ones, obligations in the field of agriculture. In particular, in the sphere of the introduction of limitations corresponding the amount of the state supporting which one country, a member of the WTO, would be able to put at the disposal of national agroproducers. Nowadays the amount of the state supporting in regard of the agricultural sector makes up about 3.5 billions of the USD dollars annually. At the time of the joining the WTO it was determined in the amount of 9.0 billions of the USD dollars annually. In the following, in the period from 2012 till up 2017 years it would be reduced according to the corresponding schedule till 4.4 billions of the USD dollars annually. The necessity of the Russia’s joining to the WTO is explained on the ground of that fact that according to the rules and norms of the WTO are regulated more than 90 percents of the world trade with goods and services. At the same time the main form of the world economic connections as before remains the international trade which according to its dynamic and value indices leave behind the growth of the world production, the flow of capital and other kinds of international connections. According to the WTO data the amounts of the world agricultural foodstuffs export/import made up in 2000 year 558 billions of the USD dollars. The share of Russia in the export made up 1.3 percents and in the import 1.9 percents. The lack of balance in this sector of the international trade meant for Russia the loss of 3.3 billions of the USD dollars annually. The amount of import to Russian Federation increased in 2011 year compared with 2010 year by 30,0 percents and reached 323.3 billions of the USD dollars. At the same time the share of the agricultural sector in the import reached about 13.0 percents or 42.5 billions of the USD dollars. In the same period of time, according to the data of the Central Bank of Russia, the export of RF made up 521.4 billions of the USD dollars and increased by 30.2 percents, but the share of the agricultural sector only made up 2.3 percents of the total export.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization (WTO), ''yellow basket'', ''green basket'', conditions of ''WTO-plus'' regime, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  6. By: Doucha, Tomáš; Pohlová, Karina
    Abstract: The development of the Czech agricultural trade after EU accession in 2004 is a reflexion of changing trade conditions (especially the entry on the EU single market and taking over the EU commitments to the WTO), effectiveness of the Czech agriculture and food industry. The main characteristics of the changes are the growth of the negative trade balance, a substantial increase of the trade turnover with EU countries to the detriment of the third countries and the growth of exports of agricultural raw materials accompanied with the growth of imports of more processed products. The main cause is the orientation of the Czech agriculture on products with a lower demand on labour quantity and quality and on simpler technologies, together with a lower effectiveness of domestic primary processors. Besides the global trade indicators, this development is documented by selected RCA indicators.
    Keywords: agricultural trade, Czech Republic, EU single market, agriculture, food industry, effectiveness, revealed comparative advantage, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  7. By: Milanović, Milan R.; Stevanović, Simo; Radojević, Vuk
    Abstract: Because of big internal differences in the production-resource structure, the former uniform Yugoslav market was characterized by intensive inter-republic trade. Given the controlled prices of agrarian products, their internal trade was frequently referred to as an example of non-equivalent exchange. After the violent secession and disintegration of the common country, the agrarian trade balances of the former republics and their positions in foreign trade essentially began to change. The relative changes of the agrarian-export positions of the republics/states are gained an insight into in the context of the market structure and the agrarian potentials of the former shared environment and the current new one. At the same time, we are comparatively analyzing the market structure and relations within the three status/systemically completely different conditions of these countries for the duration of an almost two-and-ahalf- decade-long period (from 1988 to 2010), namely: (1) the pre-transition position on the uniform market; (2) the transition period after the disintegration of the common state, and (3) the post-transition period of independence. The sectoral significance of the agrarian market is assessed via an analysis of the share of agrarian trade turnover in total foreign-trade turnover, as well as the movement of the net balance of agrarian trade, while positional changes in the spatial structure of the total and agrarian export and import are being gained an insight into via the relative share of some countries in the total trade turnover of the ex-YU market countries. Utilizing specific analytical methods, such a way to analyze the transition dynamic and structural changes of the agro-food sector in foreign trade offers a possibility of the identifying and objectivizing of the comparative advantage and export potentials of the agrarian foreign trade of these countries. The remarks and assessments derived on that basis are indicative of the consequences of the disintegration of the former uniform Yugoslav agrarian market.
    Keywords: Ex-Yu countries’ market, agrarian export, agrarian import, foreign-trade balance, sectoral and spatial structure, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  8. By: Bachev, Hrabrin; Yovchevska, Plamena; Mitova, Dilyana; Toteva, Desislava; Mitov, Anton
    Abstract: This study is a part of the research project on “Eco-management in agriculture” funded by the Agricultural Academy with period of implementation 2013-2014. This report summarizes the results of the first year and includes: - state of the studies in the area; - theoretical and methodological framework of analysis of eco-management in agriculture; - review of experiences of EU and other developed countries in eco-management in agriculture; - framework for analyzing, assessment and improvement of eco-management in Bulgarian agriculture; - analysis of evolution of institutional environment during transformation and European integration of Bulgarian agriculture; - analysis of the development of market, private and public modes of eco-management during transformation and European integration of Bulgarian agriculture; - analysis of the development and the importance of organic farming in recent years; - analysis of ecological culture of agricultural producers; - analysis of ecologization of grape and wine sector; - identification of major ecological problems, risks and challenges in Bulgarian agriculture; - conclusions. Detailed information for the project is available at:
    Keywords: agri-eco-governance; market; private; public modes; agricultural transition; EU integration; Bulgaria
    JEL: O1 O13 O17 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 Q24 Q25 Q26 Q28 Q53 Q56 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2013–12–01
  9. By: Dzmitry Kruk (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: This paper deals with economic policy in Belarus after the currency crisis of 2011. There was a trade-off between the desire of the government to soften economic policy given cyclical recession and high and volatile inflation expectations. In the first half of 2012, the choice was made in favor of enhancing financial stability: the output grew mainly due to foreign demand, which was crucial for macroeconomic equilibrium. Furthermore, a positive shock in foreign trade allowed domestic demand to grow somehow. However, when the positive shock exhausted, the government changed a policy mix and shifted the economy to the regime of catch-up growth. The latteê led to the waste of advantages in price competitiveness obtained due to the currency crisis of 2011, and the country returned to the pre-crisis trajectory of output growth. It is argued, that this trajectory is much more dangerous than before, as it generates lower growth at the background of rapidly progressing external imbalances. Structural reforms seem to be the only option to break the vicious circle.
    Keywords: Belarus, currency crisis, inflation expectations, macroeconomic policy
    Date: 2013–06
  10. By: Dzmitry Kruk; Kiryl Haiduk
    Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of directed lending upon total factor productivity and GDP growth in Belarus over the period of 2000–2012. In theory, directed lending can enhance physical capital accumulation and make the access to credit easier, but empirical studies often show that it leads to unproductive hoarding of capital and financing of lower-yielding projects. This study seeks to explore which of these effects has dominated in the Belarusian economy during a last decade. We find that expansion of directed lending has negatively affected TFP dynamics and thus negatively contributed to the rates of economic growth. However, the detected negative impact of directed lending on total factor productivity was enfeebled by the expansion of market loans. In the future, this link between directed and market loans could cease to exit due to liquidity constraint commercial banks face. If continued, directed lending may cause a more severe negative impact on TFP, and consequently undermine long-run economic growth.
    Keywords: Belarus, financial repression, directed lending, economic growth, transition economies, cointegration, vector error-correction model
    JEL: C32 O16 P34
    Date: 2013–03
  11. By: Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz
    Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between political instability and economic growth in 10 CEE countries in transition in the period 1990-2009. Our results support the contention that political instability defined as a propensity for government change had a negative impact on growth. On the other hand, there was no causality in the opposite direction. A sensitivity analysis based on the application of a few hundred different variants of the initial econometric model confirmed the abovementioned findings only in the case where major government changes were applied to the definition of political instability.
    Keywords: political instability, economic growth, CEE transition economies
    JEL: O1 O10 O4 O40
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Zekić, Stanislav; Gajić, Milivoj; Matkovski, Bojan
    Abstract: Agriculture is a relatively important economic activity in Serbia. In addition, the importance of agriculture stems from the upcoming full implementation of the Interim Trade Agreement with the EU, and the expected beginning of the negotiation process for full membership in the organization. In this context, the starting point of the analysis is the consideration of the agricultural resource potential as a prerequisite for the elaboration of its production performance. The analysis of export performances of agribusiness, together with the production performance of agriculture provides an accurate insight into the degree of competitiveness of Serbian agribusiness. The comparative approach to the problem provides the position identification of agriculture in Serbia, compared both with the region and the EU. This also considers the development perspective and determination of the role of agriculture in the integration of Serbian economy in regional and European frameworks. The empirical analysis represents the basis for the formulation of future steps in the creation of agricultural policy measures and appropriate strategies in the pre-accession negotiations with the EU. Above all, these measures should improve the competitiveness of agriculture, which, combined with the provision of food security and food safety and adequate incomes of farmers, has to be the imperative during the negotiation process with the EU in the field of agriculture.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Agricultural policy, Development performances, Export, Integrations., Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  13. By: Božić, Dragica; Nikolić, Marija M.
    Abstract: The processes of economic transformation and integration in which Serbia is included (gaining membership in the WTO and the EU), are accompanied by significant liberalization of markets, including the market of agricultural products, which causes certain changes in the size, structure and mode of foreign trade. Foreign trade regime of Serbian agrarian products is being harmonized to the requirements of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in anticipation of acquiring the status of member, as well as the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between Serbia and the EU and CEFTA-2006, whose members are the most important trade partners of our country. Trade liberalization and the growing international market of agricultural and food products represent an opportunity to promote exports of agrarian products from Serbia, but also opening of the market might seem a serious threat to some of our agricultural products and affect the change of production structure, where agricultural policy makers should pay special attention. The aim of this paper is to perform a regional analysis of foreign trade of agricultural and food products from Serbia with key trading partners such as EU, CEFTA-2006, and especially with some of its members for the period 2004-2011. In order to gain insight into the degree of integration of the Serbian agricultural sector in the markets of these countries, Grubel-Lloyd index of intra-industry trade (GLIIT) is calculated, which indicate the intensity and the level of intra-industry trade, implying mutual – bilateral exchange (import and export) of similar or identical products between regions (countries). A higher degree of integration on the markets of certain countries indicates the possibility of easier adjustment to the conditions of liberalization (and lower cost) because certain products are already present on them. Performed analysis provides insight into the potential consequences of further liberalization on the development of the agrarian sector and expected structural adjustments. Calculated GLIIT index for different groups of agricultural and food products and for individual countries are considerably different and vary in the observed period, but in general the level of intraindustry trade between Serbia and its leading trade partners (especially the EU) is low, indicating a low integration of agrarian sector of Serbia on these markets.
    Keywords: Foreign trade, agricultural and food products, region analysis, intra industry trade, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  14. By: Suleymanov, Elchin; Zeynalov, Ayaz; Mammadov, Rufat
    Abstract: In this article, the export multiplicity of Azerbaijan Republic has been analyzed during 1995-2009. Firstly, the relationship between GDP on CPI has been estimated and it found as a positive and meaningful. Secondly, the effect of GDP on Net export has been estimated, where these two findings allow us to estimate the export multiplicity of Azerbaijan Republic. The export multiplicity of Azerbaijan Republic found as a 0.9, where it emphasize that effect of GDP on net export is meaningful and strong with including the effect of real effective exchange rate on net export.
    Keywords: export multiplicity, net export, consumer price, and real effective exchange rate
    JEL: F12 F16 F18 F21 F41 F43
    Date: 2013–09–05
  15. By: Zagorsek, Branislav
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify relation between intensity of competition in business environment and the strategy. The aim is also to identify the relation between intensity of competition and factors of influence on the business. The research was done in Slovakia on 382 companies. Main methods used were survey, correlation analysis and synthetic indicator. The paper consists of theoretical overview, overview of methodology, research results and research results analysis and evaluation. The result is clarification of relation between strategy and dynamic business environment, dynamic business environment and competitive advantage, usage of information technologies and other factors.
    Keywords: strategy, business environment, competition, postindustrial era, competitive advantage
    JEL: L10 M10
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary Employment and activity rates in the new EU Member States (NMS) declined significantly up to the early 2000s and started to increase along with strong GDP growth thereafter. Job losses following the outbreak of the economic and financial crisis varied substantially across countries and have not been offset yet. Overall, the low-educated and the young people are very disadvantaged on the NMS labour markets. With the exception of Poland and Slovenia, non-standard types of employment are uncommon in the NMS, following the pattern of Southern EU countries. Employment protection legislation has been adjusted to ‘European standards’ in the entire region. Union density and consequently the impact of trade unions on wage setting and employment in the NMS fell dramatically. In all NMS unemployment insurance schemes as well as minimum wage regulations were introduced at the beginning of the 1990s, but are less generous than in the EU-15.
    Keywords: labour market, labour market institutions
    JEL: J21 J52 J60 J64 J65 K31
    Date: 2013–11
  17. By: Cristea, Ana Ionela
    Abstract: In this paper the issue of institutional development is approached from the perspective of the process of Europeanization. In particular, we are interested in institutions that play an important role in the process of Europeanization of the Romanian public administration. Adopting a neo-institutionalist historical perspective, we will see that the institutions do not reform or change themselves and the processes of institutional change are often political processes.
    Keywords: Institutional Development, Institutional Changes, Ministries.
    JEL: F5
    Date: 2013–12–13
  18. By: Huy, Hoang; Lyne, Michael; Ratna, Nazmun; Nuthall, Peter
    Abstract: This research investigates the efficiency and equity impacts of the cropland rental market in rural Vietnam and attempts to identify the determinants and importance of transaction costs impeding this market. A generalised ordered logit model with shifting thresholds accounting for effects of transaction costs associated with market participation was specified and estimated using pooled data extracted from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys of 2004 and 2008. The findings show that the cropland rental market reduced imbalances in factor endowments, transferring cropland to those households more willing and able to farm. Equity advantages were also revealed as cropland transferred from relatively land-rich to relatively land-poor households, allowing young farmers to ‘scale the agricultural ladder’. However, the market is constrained by transaction costs that effect lessors and lessees differently. It is recommended that the Vietnamese government should complete its land registration programme and consider relaxing restrictions on the use of wetlands to grow crops other than rice. It should also focus on improving access to all-weather roads as this encourages participation on both sides of the rental market whereas better access to communications infrastructure was found to promote only the supply side.
    Keywords: Vietnam, 2003 land law, rental market, transaction costs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2013–08
  19. By: Stojanovic, Zaklina; Mitrovic, Radmila Dragutinovic; Petrovic, Ivana Popovic
    Abstract: The aim of the paper is to investigate Serbian food trade in the process of EU integration, particularly the effects of EU Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and CEFTA integration on Serbian food exports. We analyse the developments in Serbian food trade flows from various aspects: the importance and growth of overall food exports and net-exports, intra-regional (with CEFTA) and extra-regional trade (with EU), as well as trade competiveness of Serbian food trade related to its most important foreign trade markets. In spite of the fact that total export from Serbia recorded decrease during the last decade, especially after the Great economic crisis, the Serbian food exports did not follow the same pattern. That points out the importance of the food trading, especially during the crisis. The food trading is the only sector that one country continuously can count on in the world trade, and the main reason for this conclusion we can find in the real nature of this sector – food sector produces goods for human diet as an existential need.
    Keywords: food, trade, competitiveness, RCA, RTB, Serbia, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  20. By: Boulanger, Pierre; Ferrari, Emanuele; Michalek, Jerzy; Philippidis, George; Vinyes, Cristina
    Abstract: Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects of this accession on the agricultural and food sectors, and analyses the impact on the EU, Croatia and their main trading partners. It considers both the harmonization of Croatia's trade instruments with those applied in the EU, and the adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis is carried out using MAGNET, a global recursive dynamic CGE model. Results show that Croatia slightly benefits from its accession to the EU with an increase in GDP, whereas the impact on the EU-27's GDP is insignificant. Total exports of Croatian agricultural products increase by 7.4% and those of food products decrease by 2%. Croatia will face some changes in its production structure. At constant prices, agricultural production benefits (increasing by 1.1%), whereas food production contracts (decreasing by 5.5%). This result sheds some light on competitiveness limitations of the Croatian food processing industry. The scope of this paper is to model both European trade and agricultural policies. It is worth mentioning that other EU policies such as the structural or cohesion policies, and additional gains resulting from the accession such as a less risky investment environment or a more efficient regulatory framework, are not modelled.
    Keywords: CGE, European integration, agricultural policy, agricultural trade, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  21. By: Quoc-Anh Do (Département d'économie); Kieu-Trang Nguyen (London School of Economics); Anh N. Tran (Indiana University Bloomington)
    Abstract: Although patronage politics in democracies has been studied extensively, it is less understood in undemocratic regimes, where a large proportion of the world's population resides. To fill this gap, our paper studies how government officials in authoritarian Vietnam direct public resources toward their hometowns. We manually collect an exhaustive panel dataset of political promotions of officials from 2000 to 2010 and estimate their impact on public infrastructure in their rural hometowns. We obtain three main results. First, promotions of officials improve a wide range of infrastructure in their hometowns, including roads, markets, schools, radio stations, clean water and irrigation. This favoritism is pervasive among officials across different ranks, even among those without budget authority, suggesting informal channels of influence. Second, in contrast to pork-barrel politics in democratic parliaments, elected legislators have no power to exercise favoritism. Third, only home communes receive favors, while larger and more politically important home districts do not. This suggests that favoritism is likely motivated by officials’ social preferences for their hometowns rather than by political considerations.
    Date: 2013–03
  22. By: Jan Bruha; Tibor Hledik; Tomas Holub; Jiri Polansky; Jaromir Tonner
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the forecasting process at the Czech National Bank with an emphasis on incorporating expert judgments into forecasts and addressing data uncertainty. At the beginning, the core model and the forecasting process are described and it is presented how data and the underlying uncertainty are handled. The core of the paper contains five case studies, which reflect policy issues addressed during forecasting rounds since 2008. Each case study first describes a particular forecasting problem, then the way how the issue was addressed, and finally the effect of incorporating off-model information into the forecast is briefly summarized. The case studies demonstrate that a careful incorporation of expert information into a structural framework may be useful for generating economically intuitive forecasts even during very turbulent times, and we show that such judgements may have important monetary policy implications.
    Keywords: DSGE models, forecasting, Kalman filter, monetary policy.
    JEL: C53 C54 E17
    Date: 2013–10
  23. By: Maryia Akulava (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC)); Gleb Shymanovich (IPM Research Center); Robert Kirchner (German Economic Team Belarus (GET Belarus))
    Abstract: The labour market plays an important role in the Belarusian economy. It is characterized by state dominance, as the private sector is relatively small, and overregulation. The policy of sustaining low wage disparities and excessive employment allows the authorities to eliminate inequality and curtail poverty, thus includes important functions of social policy. However, the economic costs of this policy are quite high, and are present in form of an inefficient allocation of the labour force due to its low mobility and weak motivation. Against this background, a number of challenges have arisen, which make a policy reaction necessary. First, Belarus’an labour market is experiencing a shortage of labour supply due to long-term negative demographic factors. Second, this problem is aggravated by labour migration, which seems to have picked up recently, even though exact numbers are difficult to obtain. Up to now response to these challenges has been limited to hikes in salaries and incomes, coupled with certain administrative measures to restrict cross-border mobility for certain industries. However, the key issue is to ensure productivity gains, which form the basis for subsequent wage increases. For this to happen, a wide-ranging liberalization of the labour market is a key condition. This implies also a de-coupling of social policy issues from labour market policies to a certain degree. Increasing the mobility of the labour force (relocation) across sectors will certainly have a positive impact in this respect, as a lot of potential is still underutilized.
    Keywords: Migration, Belarus
    Date: 2013–08
  24. By: Vanka, Gajo M.; Heijman, Wim J.M.
    Abstract: This article gathered and displayed data on export strategies of agro-food products and the performance of some clusters and associations inside industries in Serbian region. As part of this article, producers in clusters were described in detail in agro&food production, their weaknesses&opportunities they confront in the national and international markets. Analyzes were carried out within 2 clusters, association and on their subsistence in national markets. SWOT analyzes managed to make a solid/viable cross section of agro production and food industry through its branches within which these clusters work. These branches are baking, wine, organic food production&dairy industry. Etno-tourism and the way it connects all of these food items of food industry is also analyzed within this paper. In this way a complete picture of the clusters in the agriculture and food industry was gained.
    Keywords: agribusiness, agro-food sector, clusters, competitiveness, micro¯o level, Serbia, SWOT, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics,
    Date: 2013
  25. By: Suleymanov, Elchin; Hasanov, Fakhri; Nuri Aras, Osman
    Abstract: The Republic of Azerbaijan is one of the oil and gas rich countires of the former Soviet Union. After the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field, natural gas exltation and exportation became one of the key issues in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas stategy. Diversification of the oil and gas transportation is key issue for Azerbaijan’s energy security policy. In this regard, TANAP is one of the important project after Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. TANAP is proposed natural gas pipeline for transporting Azerbaijani natural gas through Turkey to Europe in two directions. The project is firstly announced on 17 November 2011 at the Third Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum in Istanbul and singed on 26 June 2012.By starting 2014 and finishing 2018, TANAP will cost billion USD and will be the capacity of 23 billion cubic metres by 2023 and 31 billion cubic metres by 2026.
    Keywords: TANAP,Energy,Oil,Natural gas,Pipeline
    JEL: F1 F13 F5 F53 Q40 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2013–09–15
  26. By: Simić, Jelena Damnjanović; Zakić, Vladimir
    Abstract: In many developing countries, regional integration has become a key means of promoting economic growth and fighting poverty. PTAs are increasingly used as engines of change in many developing countries, to promote, implement, and lock in reforms in a wide range of policy areas such as investment regimes, competition rules, and government procurement. They create larger and more competitive markets and benefit producers and consumers through economies of scale and lower prices. Although PTAs may promote development, they necessarily discriminate against nonmembers and can therefore lead to trade diversion in a way that hurts both member countries and excluded countries. Also, the proliferation of bilateral and regional PTAs may undermine progress toward a more open, transparent, and rules-based multilateral trading system. In this paper it will be discussed about the establishment and expectations of a free trade agreement CEFTA 2006. Specifically, the South East European countries, which made the majority of this regional economic integration, still have many unresolved, above all, political problems. On the other hand, the different status of these countries in the process of integration into the European Union chose the inflow of financial resources and speed necessary economic reforms. However, the global economic crisis has slowed the flow of financial resources, especially greenfield investments, deepened social stratification and mutual political differences between member states. This paper will try to answer the question: do this PTAs really contribute to deeper integration in EU?
    Keywords: PTAs, Integration, CEFTA, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  27. By: Popović, Rade; Radovanov, Boris; Jeremić, Marija
    Abstract: International milk market is created by 7% of world production volume. Volatile world milk prices in recent 6 years caused different forms of its transmission to national levels. In the paper this phenomena is investigated on two levels. First, on macro level how world milk price affects national markets in case of New Zealand as leading world exporter, Germany with growing net export, and Serbia with self-sufficient production. Second, it is analysed vertical price transmission in Serbian milk supply chain, according its magnitude, speed, nature and direction in period January 2007 to May 2013. Results improved understanding how world milk price influence milk price in Serbia and how price shocks are transmitted through milk supply chain for several most important kinds of milk products.Applied vector error correction model in horizontal milk price transmission indicates asymmetry in price transmission from world to Serbian milk market. Milk prices in Serbia respond to price signals from German and world market, but with significant time lags and increasing magnitude over time. From first to fourth month delay, milk prices from German market positively influence Serbian market, and from fifth to tenth month further increasing influence of world milk prices are presented. Nature of spatial asymmetry is positive. Results of threshold vector error correction model applied on dairy supply chain, suggests similar conclusionsfor all four major dairy products on Serbian market. Retail prices react mostly on raw milk price changes, with constant response to processor’s prices. Price shocks are originate at the processor level and are passed to farmers and to retailers. Blurred relationship between processing and retail sector permits more accurate analysis.
    Keywords: milk, price, transmission, World, Serbia, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  28. By: Tomić, Danilo; Popović, Vesna; Tandir, Nataša
    Abstract: In the frame of EU Stabilization and Association Process, Serbia and EU signed Stabilization and Association Agreements (SAA) in 2008, with Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as one of its main parts. SAA Interim Agreement entered in the fifth year of the transitional period ending on January 1, 2014. Serbia got already (2000) non-reciprocal duty-free access to the EU market for nearly all agricultural products. In imports, Serbia committed to abolish/reduce tariffs, lowering average agricultural tariff from 22% to 2.49%. In the paper, the authors focus on the effects of SAA import liberalization and the future import trends in the key sectors of Serbian agriculture analyzing: • structure of agricultural tariffs and import values in 2012, compared to base 2008 year, according to the different models of liberalization, • agricultural trade flows with the EU in the period 2010-2012 compared to total agricultural trade, and some of supply chains, potentially most affected by liberalization process. The results should provide an assessment of the agriculture adjustment level to SAA requirements and evaluation of the SAA trade creation/diversion effects.
    Keywords: SAA, import liberalization, integration potentials, Serbian agriculture, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  29. By: Zaric, Vlade; Vasiljevic, Zorica; Vlahovic, Branislav; Andric, Jasmina
    Abstract: The raspberry is one of the most important export products of Serbia. According to FAO data about 80,000 tons of raspberry are exported annually from Serbia with a total value of 165 million USD (2011). That is why the Republic of Serbia is one of the major exporters of this product. Raspberries are mainly exported in the frozen form. The raspberry are mainly grown on small farms, where the farm owners and their families carry out all necessary activities, with the seasonal labor hiring during harvest of raspberries. Positive trends in production are both the result of favorable climate conditions and the knowledge and skills of producers. The increasing demands of customers in terms of product safety, recently led to the development of quality systems that are mainly related to the processing of the products. However, the increased liberalization of international trade and increased risks in the area of food safety stress more attention to the health and safety of the products in primary production as well. It is expected that the primary producers with introducing a quality system achieve better position in the marketing chain. This paper aims to analyze the main characteristics of the raspberry marketing chain and position of small producers from two perspectives - the first one is position of the participants at the beginning of the marketing chain, and the second one is the assessment of the effects of introduction the quality system on the volume of production and sales, as well as on the selling price. The research shows that the marketing chain of primary producers is short, and ends by the nearest cool storage. Introduction of quality systems create additional cost for producers and increased product quality. However, data do not show that higher quality standards are reflected in higher market prices.
    Keywords: marketing chain, raspberryes, small producers, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,
    Date: 2013–08

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