nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒09
nineteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis By Jan Babecky; Tomas Havranek
  2. Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union By Dumitriu, Ramona; Stefanescu, Răzvan
  3. Product relatedness and firm exports in China By Poncet, Sandra; de Waldemar, Felipe Starosta
  4. Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian priorities for 2030 By Alexander Sokolov; Alexander Chulok; Vladimir Mesropyan
  6. The US-Russia missile defense dialogue as a factor of the Russian defense policy By Dmitry Suslov
  7. The US-Russia relations and the Russian strategic defense policy: getting beyond the cold war logic By Dmitry Suslov
  8. The Accession of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to the WTO: What will it Mean for the World Trade in Wheat? By Burkitbayeva, Saule; Kerr, William A.
  9. 鼓励还是抑制?初探外商直接投资与新民营企业进入 By Wang, Daili
  10. Technology and pro-environmental behavior in urban households: how technologies mediate domestic routines By Elena Chernovich
  11. 储蓄过剩与经济危机 By bao, haisong
  12. Is participatory social learning a performance driver for Chinese smallholder farmers? By Huanxiu GUO; Sébastien Marchand
  13. The influence of ethnicity and culture on the valuation of environmental improvements: Results from a CVM study in Southwest China By Ahlheim, Michael; Börger, Tobias; Frör, Oliver
  14. Trade, market integration and spatial price transmission on EU pork markets following Eastern enlargement By Holst, Carsten; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan
  15. Health Insurance Coverage for Low-income Households: Consumption Smoothing and Investment. By Liu, Kai
  16. Equity and Access to Tertiary Education: The Case of Vietnam By VU HOANG LINH; LE VIET THUY; GIANG THANH LONG
  17. Different levels of social organization in the formation of anti-school attitudes among adolescents By Valeria Ivaniushina; Daniel Alexandrov
  18. Chinese Trade Reforms, Market Access and Foreign Competition: the Patterns of French Exporters By Maria Bas; Pamela Bombarda
  19. Increasing labour market activity of the poor and females: Let’s make work pay in Macedonia By Blazevski, Nikica Mojsoska; Petreski, Marjan; Petreska, Despina

  1. By: Jan Babecky; Tomas Havranek
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of structural reforms, mainly liberalization and privatization, on economic growth. To provide stylized facts on how such reforms worked in the past, we quantitatively review 60 studies that estimate the relation between reforms and growth empirically. These studies examine structural reforms carried out in 26 transition and post-transition countries around the world. Our results show that a typical reform caused substantial costs in the short run, but had strong positive effects on long-run growth. Reforms focused on external liberalization proved to be more beneficial than other types of reform in both the short and long run. The findings hold even after correction for publication bias and misspecifications present in some primary studies.
    Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, growth, meta-analysis, structural reforms, transition economies.
    JEL: C83 O11 P21
    Date: 2013–08
  2. By: Dumitriu, Ramona; Stefanescu, Răzvan
    Abstract: After the fall of communist regime the Romanian current account passed from exceeds to substantial and persistent deficits. This evolution raised concerns over the country external sustainability. Since 2007, in the Romanian foreign trade dramatic changes occurred, being induced by the adhesion to European Union and by the global crisis. The adhesion to European Union stimulated both exports and imports. However, because the exports growth was much less consistent than the imports growth, the deficits of current account widened. Beginning with the end of 2008, the national economy was affected by the global crisis which discouraged both exports and imports. This time, because the decline of exports was less sharp than the decline of imports, the deficits of the Romanian current account narrowed. However, the country external sustainability is still an actual problem in the circumstances of the new challenges of a changing international context. In this paper we investigate the sustainability of the Romanian current account from January 2007 to January 2013. In our analysis we employ monthly values of the main components of the current account. We also use unit root and cointegration tests that allow taking into consideration the structural breaks. Our results suggest the deficits of the current account are not sustainable.
    Keywords: Romanian Current Account, Sustainability, Adhesion to European Union
    JEL: F10 F15 F40
    Date: 2013–04–05
  3. By: Poncet, Sandra; de Waldemar, Felipe Starosta
    Abstract: This paper proposes the first evaluation using micro-level data of the gains from the consistency of activities with a local comparative advantage. Using firm-level data from Chinese customs over the 2000-6 period, the study investigates the relationship between the export performance of firms and how their products relate to local comparative advantage. The key indicator measures the density of the links between a product and the local product space. Hence, it combines information on the intrinsic relatedness of a good with information on the local pattern of specialization. The results indicate that exports grow faster for goods that have denser links with those currently produced in the firm's locality. The density of links between products seems to yield export-enhancing spillovers. However, this positive effect of product relatedness on export performance is mainly limited to ordinary trade activities and domestic firms. It is also stronger for more productive firms, suggesting that spillover diffusion may be hindered by insufficient absorptive capacity.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Airports and Air Services,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Free Trade
    Date: 2013–10–01
  4. By: Alexander Sokolov (Director of the international Foresight centre, vice director of the ISSEK HSE. Address: National research university “Higher school of economics”); Alexander Chulok (Head of the science and technology Foresight department, ISSEK HSE. Address: National research university “Higher school of economics”); Vladimir Mesropyan (Researcher at the science and technology Foresight department, ISSEK HSE. Address: National research university “Higher school of economics”)
    Abstract: Currently the framework conditions for science and technology and innovation (STI) policy have changed significantly in Russia: a system of technology forecasting has been established, which focuses on ensuring the future needs of the manufacturing sector of the national economy. This system was supposed to be the main part of the state strategy planning system which is currently being formed. Over the last decade dozens of science and technology forward-looking projects have been implemented, among which 3 cycles of long-term S&T Foresight stand out prominently. The Foresight was developed by the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. The development of the 3rd cycle of long-term Foresight includes both normative («market pull») and research («technology push») approaches. The project involved more than 2,000 experts and more than 200 organizations. Within the project a network of six sectoral Foresight centers was created on the basis of leading universities. The article describes the most important issues of future studies in Russia and presents the principles which formed the basis for the long-term science and technology (S&T) Foresight until 2030. The authors explore its position in the national technology Foresight system and the possibilities for the implementation of its results by the key stakeholders of the national innovation system and on the level of STI policy. Eventually Russian experience could be fairly interesting and useful for many other countries with similar socio-economic features and barriers
    Keywords: Foresight, Russia, research and development strategy, planning of science and technology development, Russian technology Foresight system, innovation policy.
    JEL: O31 O32 O33 O38 O21 O25 O43
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Svetlana Avdasheva (1National Research University Higher School of Economics. Institute for Industrial and Market Studies. Deputy Director;); Polina Kryuchkova (2National Research University Higher School of Economics. Institute for Industrial and Market Studies, Laboratory of Competition and Antimonopoly Policy. Leading Research Fellow;)
    Abstract: Law enforcement by regulatory authorities on complaints may replicate not only advantages but also disadvantages of both public and private enforcement. In Russian antitrust enforcement there are strong incentives to open investigations on almost every complaint. The increasing number of complaints and investigations decreases both the resources available per investigation and the standards of proof. It also distorts the structure of enforcement, increases the probability of both wrongful convictions and wrongful acquittals, and lowers deterrence. Statistics of antitrust enforcement in the Russian Federation, including Russian regions, highlight the importance of complaints for making decisions on whether to open investigations and the positive dependence of convictions on the number of investigations
    Keywords: antitrust, Russia, public enforcement, complaints, legal errors.
    JEL: K21 K42
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Dmitry Suslov (Deputy Director for Research of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, School of the World Economy and International Affairs, National Research University – Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: To a big extent the Russian defense policy and, as a consequence, development of the Russian defense industrial complex, is determined by the prospects of the US missile defense policy and fate of the US-Russia negotiations in this area. As a cooperative solution seems improbable in the observable future, Russia plans to develop certain response measures of military nature, including creation of a new heavy ICBM, and to create its own missile defense by 2015. However, this policy does not seem correct from the economic, political and security viewpoints. Russia overestimates the possible military challenges of the hypothetic US missile defense system and invests huge funds into fighting non-existent threats. A US-Russia cooperation in missile defense is possible, and it would fundamentally change their overall relations for the better
    Keywords: US-Russia relations, missile defense, defense policy, strategic deterrence, mutually assure destruction, foreign policy, international security.
    JEL: F59
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Dmitry Suslov (Deputy Director for Research of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, School of the World Economy and International Affairs, National Research University – Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The contemporary Russian military-industrial complex to a great extent still remains a shortened and shrinking copy of the old Soviet military machine, which is less and less capable of defending Russia from the real threats and challenges and stimulates ineffective spending of financial resources. The reason is that the logic of the Russian defense policy, which determines structure of the military-industrial complex, did not change since the Cold War. This logic is strategic deterrence of the US. Today more factors objectively unite Russia and the US in the world rather than separates them. However, Moscow is still committed to maintaining a parity (or at least an illusion of parity) with the US in the strategic nuclear sphere and regards it as a criteria for its military security and maintenance of a great power status.
    Keywords: Nuclear weapons, Strategic missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, missile defense, arms control, defense policy, armaments, US-Russia relations.
    JEL: F59
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Burkitbayeva, Saule; Kerr, William A.
    Abstract: International trade in wheat accounts for approximately one third of world grain trade and is expected to double by 2050.The KRU (Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine) countries account for approximately a quarter of world wheat exports and are collectively considered one of the key wheat exporting regions. The Ukraine became a member of the WTO only in 2008. Russia became an official member of the WTO in 2012 and Kazakhstan is expected to follow Russia and reach an accession deal with WTO members shortly. As a result of WTO accession, all three countries will be entitled to “most favoured nation” (MFN tariffs), and hence, gain improved access to a number of important markets that have been largely inaccessible due to very high tariffs that could be charged on imports from non-WTO countries. World wheat trade liberalization, reflecting the move to the MFN tariff as a result of accession, was simulated using the global simulation model (GSIM). The KRU region’s increased market accessibility as a result of successful accession to the WTO has the potential to foster important re-alignments in world wheat trade flows, prices and changes in welfare among major wheat trading countries. The simulation results suggest that the change to MFN tariffs leads to KRU countries trading more with now freer markets such as Turkey, the EU and China. Major traditional wheat exporters such as Australia, Canada, the EU, and the US do not seem to be negatively impacted to any important degree. Their relative market access conditions, however, erode in Turkish, Middle Eastern, and North African markets with their exports being diverted and broadly distributed among other countries and regions at marginally reduced prices. Trade liberalization is not uniform across regions and, hence, leads to different net welfare changes across countries. Those welfare changes, however, appear to be modest.
    Keywords: accession, Kazakhstan, MFN, Russia, tariff reduction, Ukraine, wheat, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–09
  9. By: Wang, Daili
    Abstract: As one of the numerous merits brought by global financial integration, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an indispensable role in fostering economic growth in the developing world. Different from previous literatures which concentrate on discussing the FDI productivity spillover effect, the paper provides evidence of the impact from FDI on the entry of new-born private firms by employing an exhaustive Chinese firm-level dataset. The paper confirms the vintage positive productivity spillover from FDI. It further suggests that larger share of foreign owned enterprises correlates significantly with less entry of new private firms in a given industry. Considering the vital role of new-born firms in facilitating private sector development, which in turn is crucial to sustainable economic growth, the paper recommends relevant authority carefully assessing the trade-off between positive productivity spillover effect and negative entry inhibition effect, before introducing more favored policies to attract foreign investors
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Firm entry, Entrpreneurship, China
    JEL: F2 F3 L2 O1
    Date: 2013–05
  10. By: Elena Chernovich (Junior Research Fellow, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics,)
    Abstract: This paper investigates environmental behavior in Russian households by the analysis of 24 in-depth interviews conducted in typical households of the city of Moscow. Using the STS tools such as ‘script’ and ‘moral agency’ it discovers how technologies shape domestic routines and pro-environmental behavior of their users and how the users shape the resource consumption of technological artifacts. Depending on their environmental values and believes three types of residents are identified: committed environmentalists, occasional environmentalists and non-environmentalists. Each of the group of people appeared to have different agencies in relation to their domestic technologies. Technologies also seem to play different role in shaping moral actions of the three categories of residents
    Keywords: Human-technology relations, environmentalism, domestic routines
    JEL: D19 Q01
    Date: 2013
  11. By: bao, haisong
    Abstract: Based on the savings glut argument, proposed a new point of view that unlike the neoclassical and Keynesian, and on this basis, shows the current plight of the Chinese economy is heavily reliant on the root cause of the investment. Since 2008 the world financial crisis, reflections on macroeconomics and questions have been constantly. This paper argues that the economic disconnection between theory and reality is rooted in not distinguish the difference between real investment demand and monetary investment demand. There is the savings glut, from the real economy,this is the main cause for the emergence of economic difficulties.The fundamental way of China to resolve the current difficulties is not a big increase in investment, but the expansion of consumption through the reform of income distribution..
    Keywords: Savings glut ; Say's law ; Walrasian equilibrium; Economic cycle
    JEL: E12 E13 E20 E24
    Date: 2013–10–25
  12. By: Huanxiu GUO (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne : - CLERMONT-FERRAND I); Sébastien Marchand (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: This paper aims to test the effect of smallholder farmers' participatory social learning on their gain of performance in a village of southwest China. By exploring a panel structure survey data collected in the village, we identify the social learning effect using a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model. Particularly, we calculate the technical efficiency and environmental efficiency from a SFA model and use them as dependent variables of the model. Moreover, we investigate the social learning of different technologies, i.e., conventional and organic farming, by separating the estimations. Our identification results suggest that the effect of social learning is weak due to the technological heterogeneity in the general case, whilst it is significantly positive for organized organic farming. However, it appears that farmers learn to improve their economic performance (i.e., maximize yield) rather than environmental performance (i.e., minimize environmentally detrimental input). These results reveal a critical limitation of social learning, and demand more environmental orientation in the agricultural extension service, which is expected to guide smallholder farmers and foster their environmental performance for sustainable agricultural development.
    Keywords: Smallholder farming;Social learning;Organic farming;Technical efficiency;Environmental efficiency;China.
    Date: 2013–10–31
  13. By: Ahlheim, Michael; Börger, Tobias; Frör, Oliver
    Abstract: The provision of environmental goods by government creates social benefits which might vary between citizen groups with different cultural and ethnic backgrounds. These differences as well as the overall extent of benefits should be analysed before the implementation of public projects in order to consider not only the efficiency aspects of such a project but also its distributional effects. In Southwest China we are facing a rapid deforestation for the development of rubber cultivation and at the same time find an ethnically highly diverse population. This Contingent Valuation study tries to assess the short-term and long-term benefits accruing from a public reforestation programme in Xishuangbanna and their distribution among different ethnic groups living in that region. The results show that different ethnic groups value short-term and future benefits of reforestation differently and that these differences can be explained by the different cultural and historical backgrounds of these ethnic groups. --
    Keywords: Rubber cultivation,contingent valuation method,environmental costs,ethnicities,equity,cultural ecosystem services,China
    JEL: D31 D33 E6 E25
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Holst, Carsten; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan
    Abstract: The accession of ten countries to the EU in May 2004, and of Bulgaria and Romania in January 2007, eliminated barriers to trade between old and new, and among new member states. We analyse the effects of this accession on the integration of pork markets in the EU. Our results show that the speed of price transmission is positively related to the volume of pork trade between two countries. Our results also reveal that intra-regional price transmission between old or between new member states is more rapid than inter-regional price transmission between old and new member states, and that producer prices in the new member states adjust more rapidly to price changes in the old member states than vice versa. Price transmission is also more rapid between Euro-zone members and member states that share a common border. Finally, our results show that the strengths of these effects have changed in predictable ways in the years since accession took place, as a single, increasingly integrated European pork market has evolved. --
    Keywords: spatial price transmission,market integration,cointegration,European pork market
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Liu, Kai (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: I estimate the effects of public health insurance on consumption smoothing and investigate the extent to which the public insurance interacts with private arrangements of self-insurance. Exploiting a dramatic expansion in health insurance coverage in rural China, I find that the introduction of public health insurance helps households completely insure against severe health shocks. The health insurance also reduces the magnitude of decline during a health shock in investments in children's education, agricultural activities and durable goods. The evidence suggests that the benefit of social insurance for low-income households could also come from reducing the use of costly smoothing mechanisms.
    Keywords: Public health insurance; Rural China
    JEL: D10 I10 O10
    Date: 2013–10–24
  16. By: VU HOANG LINH (Indochina Research & Consulting (IRC), Hanoi); LE VIET THUY (Department of Education Management, National Economics University, Hanoi); GIANG THANH LONG (Indochina Research & Consulting (IRC), Hanoi)
    Abstract: The objectives of this case study of equity and access to tertiary education in Vietnam are to (i) document the significance and consequences of disparities in tertiary education opportunities, particularly in specific instances and areas of Vietnam, (ii) investigate the results and lessons of efforts to expand access to tertiary education, and (iii) offer concrete recommendations for effective policies directed toward the ideas of widening participation. To pursue these research objectives, we evaluate students at three periods of their study life, i.e. access to universities; performance in universities; and completion from universities, using a number of individual and household characteristics. Our data include the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) in 2006 and a survey conducted at the National Economics University (NEU), Hanoi in late 2009. An important contribution of this paper is to highlight cases, in which equity provisions in tertiary education policies might have had detrimental effects on the quality of the tertiary system and on the capacity for a government to maximize the potential of tertiary education in stimulating economic growth and development.
    Date: 2012
  17. By: Valeria Ivaniushina (Sociology of Education and Science Lab, National Research University Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg, Senior Researcher.); Daniel Alexandrov (Sociology of Education and Science Lab, National Research University Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg, Professor.)
    Abstract: This article analyzes student pro-school/anti-school attitudes on different levels and explores their relation to educational outcomes. We examine the individual level, school level, and clique level predictors (clique is defined as a tight social group within a class social network). Cliques were identified using special software called Kliquefinder. We use multi-level regression approach on a sample of 7300 students from 104 public schools from St.Petersburg. Our findings show that: 1.) Socio-economic differentiation of Russian schools does not lead to a polarization of pro-school/anti-school attitudes in different types of schools; 2.) The polarization of attitudes emerges and is maintained at the clique level; and, 3.) Clique attitudes have a significant impact on educational outcomes (net of a student’s socio-demographic characteristics and individual attitudes).
    Keywords: pro-school/anti-school culture, peer effects, social network analysis, cliques.
    JEL: I21 C12
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Maria Bas (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Pamela Bombarda (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise)
    Abstract: A unilateral trade reform generates two opposite effects: market access expansion and strengthening of competitive pressures in the liberalized market. Using detailed trade and firm-level data from France, we investigate how French firms' product scope and export sales changed after Chinese liberalization vis-à-vis Asian liberalization. Our findings suggest that lower Chinese import tariffs account on average for 7 percent of the new products exported by French firms, and for 18 percent of additional French export sales. These results are robust when accounting for foreign competition faced by French firms in the liberalized market.
    Keywords: unilateral trade liberalization, market access, foreign competition, export margins and firm level data
    Date: 2013–01–30
  19. By: Blazevski, Nikica Mojsoska; Petreski, Marjan; Petreska, Despina
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to simulate the effects of two alternative social policies individual and family in-work benefits on labour market choices in Macedonia, with special focus on the poor and females. To that end, we use ex-ante analysis relying on a combination of a tax and benefit micro-simulation model for Macedonia (MAKMOD) and a structural model for labour supply, both utilising the 2011 Survey of Income and Labour Conditions. Results suggest that the proposed reforms will have a considerable effect on the working choices of Macedonians. The family in-work benefit is found to be more effective for singles and would potentially increase employment by 6 percentage points. On the other hand, the individual in-work benefit works better for couples where employment would increase by 2.5 percentage points. In addition, the effects are found to be larger for the poor and for females, the categories that are most prone to inactivity in Macedonia.
    Date: 2013–10–31

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