nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2013‒09‒26
twenty-two papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Customs and Tariff Policy and Promotion of Innovations in Russia By Sergey Prikhodko; Nadezhda Volovik; Galina Balandina
  2. Public Sector and Privatization in Russia in 2012 By Georgy Malginov; Alexander Radygin
  3. Key Trends in Russia's Education System: Results of 2012 By Tatiana Klyachko
  4. Russia’s Financial Markets and Financial Institutions in 2012 By Andrei Alaev; Arseny Mamedov; Vladimir Nazarov
  5. German-Central European Supply Chain-Cluster Report: Staff Report, First Background Note, Second Background Note, Third Background Note By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  6. North Caucasus in 2012: Results and Risks By Konstantin Kazenin
  7. Factors Influencing Portfolio Yield of Microfinance Institutions in Central Asia By Janda, Karel; Turbat, Batbayar
  8. Russian Oil and Gas Sector in 2012 By Yury Bobylev
  9. Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China By Tamim Bayoumi; Franziska Ohnsorge
  10. Living Standards in Russia in 2012 By Svetlana Misikhina
  11. GINI Country Report: The Czech Republic and Slovakia By Martin Kahanec; Martin Guzi; Monika Martišková; Michal Paleník; Filip Pertold; Zuzana Siebertová
  12. Políticas de Inovação no Brasil e na China do Século XXI By Bruno Cézar Araújo
  13. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Armenia By Gagik Makaryan; Mihran Galstyan
  14. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Ukraine By Tom Coupé; Hannah Vakhitova
  15. The impact of a senior high school tuition relief program on poor junior high schoolstudents in rural China By Xinxin Chen; Yaojiang Shi; Hongmei Yi; Linxiu Zhang; Di Mo; James Chu; Prashant Loyalka; Scott Rozelle
  16. A semi-APARCH approach for comparing long-term and short-term risk in Chinese financial market and in mature financial markets By Yuanhua Feng; Lixin Sun
  17. Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: the Case of Developing Countries By Ali J Al-sadiq
  18. Overseas Investment of Chinese Enterprises: Discovery and discussion based on site research By CHEN Xiaohong; QI Changdong; ZHOU Yan; ZONG Fangyu
  19. Republic of Lithuania: 2013 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report,Information Annex, Public Information Notice, Statement by the Executive Director By International Monetary Fund
  20. China’s Demography and its Implications By Il Houng Lee; Xu Qingjun; Murtaza H. Syed
  21. Innovations and Knowledge Transfer for the Food Supply Chain Sustainability: Challenges in the Czech Dairy Industry By Ratinger, Tomas; Boskova, Iveta
  22. Republic of Belarus: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

  1. By: Sergey Prikhodko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Nadezhda Volovik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Galina Balandina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the normative and legal basis which regulates Russian customs and tariff policy. The authors analyze the features of customs and tariff regulation in Russia and main directions of its improvement in the medium term perspective.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, Russia's foreign trade regulations
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Georgy Malginov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Radygin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Russia’s Government has adopted no other privatization programs over the last two years, as it did in the 2000s, since the Forecast Plan (Program) for the Federal Property and the Guidelines of Federal Property Privatization for 2011-2013 was adopted in November 2010. However, it is these documents that contained numerical data on federal state unitary enterprises (FSUEs) and joint stock companies (JSCs) in which the Russian Federation had a participating interest as of the beginning of a calendar year. Therefore, there is no sufficient information for making an impartial assessment of the dynamics of the foregoing components in the public sector in 2012.
    Keywords: Russian economy, privatization, public sector, public sector in the economy, structural policy
    JEL: H82 K11 L32 L33
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Tatiana Klyachko (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This paper deals with issues related to the education system. The author focuses on the latest legislation adopted by the government and reorganization of its institutions.
    Keywords: Russian economy, educational institutions
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I28
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Andrei Alaev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vladimir Nazarov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the issue of intergovernmental fiscal relations and subnational finances in Russia. The authors focus on the issue of subnational budgets in 2012, financial support from the federal budget. The point out to how the federal authorities stimulate the constitutent territories on the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: Russian economy, fiscal relations, subnational finances, federal budget, road funds, subnational budgets
    JEL: H5
    Date: 2013
  5. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Keywords: Bilateral trade;Germany;Czech Republic;Hungary;Poland;Slovak Republic;Central and Eastern Europe;Manufacturing sector;Exports;Trade integration;Staff Reports;Background papers;
    Date: 2013–08–20
  6. By: Konstantin Kazenin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The author deals with the a wide scope of issues related to the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. He provides an in depth analysis of the national movement as well as investment projects and local communities interest.
    Keywords: Russian economy, North Caucasus
    JEL: R10 R11 R12 R13 R14
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Janda, Karel; Turbat, Batbayar
    Abstract: We analyze the determinants of portfolio yield of microfinance institutions in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Mongolia, Afghanistan, and China over the period 1998-2011. We confirm that targeting women borrowers improves the financial results of microfinance institutions whereas the effectiveness of group lending or advantages of rural lending, in contrast to the initial expectations, were not confirmed. We also consider the contributions of different governance forms of microfinance institutions and the macroeconomic factors potentially influencing the financial performance of microfinance institutions. As a part of this paper we also provide a self contained introduction to microfinance theory for a reader not familiar with microfinance
    Keywords: Microfinance; Central Asia; Earnings.
    JEL: D14 G21 O16 P34
    Date: 2013–09–06
  8. By: Yury Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Oil and gas production remain the core sector of Russia economy, which has a leading role in generating federal budget revenue and this country’s balance of trade. The factors that exerted the most significant influence on the development of the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy in 2012 were the situation on the world oil market; the situation on the European gas market; and the objective deterioration of the conditions for the extraction of oil and natural gas, which is associated with a declining production at the ‘old’ deposits and the considerably higher costs of the development of new ones, especially in unpopulated areas with no infrastructure..
    Keywords: Russian economy, oil world prices, oil production structure, oil and gas exports, tax regulation of the oil and gas sector
    JEL: L71 L72
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Tamim Bayoumi; Franziska Ohnsorge
    Abstract: This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.
    Keywords: Capital account liberalization;China;Capital inflows;Capital outflows;Capital flows;Reserves accumulation;Capital account liberalization; portfolio flows; capital flows; financial development
    Date: 2013–08–28
  10. By: Svetlana Misikhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Rapid economic growth early in the 2000s was accompanied by high growth rates in personal income. Personal real income grew up by 2.5 times as inequality increased insignificantly (Gini index was 0.42 in 2011 against 0.4 in 2000). In the first decade of the 21st century, the subsistence minimum increased mainly in response to its indexation to the consumer price index growth rate, thereby increasing the real personal income to subsistence minimum ratio (from 1.89 times in 2000 to 3.32 times in 2010). As a result, population with a substandard per capita money income and poverty level reduced by 2.3-2.4 times from the period between 2000 and 2010.
    Keywords: Russian economy, personal income, poverty, consumption
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Martin Kahanec; Martin Guzi; Monika Martišková; Michal Paleník; Filip Pertold; Zuzana Siebertová
    Date: 2013–09–07
  12. By: Bruno Cézar Araújo
    Abstract: Este texto apresenta uma breve apreciação das políticas de inovação no Brasil e na China, acompanhando as mudanças no sistema legal, nos programas governamentais e também no ambiente institucional nos dois países, particularmente na última década. Ao menos no que se refere aos documentos oficiais, ambos os países perseguem objetivos similares, utilizam o mesmo instrumental de medidas de política e seus incentivos fiscais à inovação estão entre os mais generosos do mundo. No entanto, embora a China tenha conseguido mudar estruturalmente seus indicadores de ciência, tecnologia e inovação (CT&I), é consenso entre os especialistas que o Brasil não tem sido capaz de transformar o seu boom científico em inovação. Uma das razões – entre muitas – reside nas diferenças acerca da estrutura institucional de apoio à inovação: a China tem políticas de inovação com foco claramente definido e apresenta uma estrutura burocrática que incentiva inovações institucionais e a reprodução de melhores práticas, enquanto no Brasil há dificuldade para estabelecer prioridades, e as políticas de inovação são difusas e enviesadas para o setor acadêmico. This paper presents a summary and a brief appraisal of innovation policies in Brazil and China, following the changes in the legal system, in governmental programs and also in the institutional environment of innovation policies in both countries, mainly during the last decade. Both countries have similar policy measures and fiscal incentives that are considered to be among the most generous in the world. However, whilst China has managed to structurally change its Science, Technology and Innovation figures in the last two decades, Brazil has not been able to transform its ‘scientific boom’ into innovation. This may be partly explained by institutional differences regarding their innovation support structure: China has innovation policies that have a clearly defined focus and a bureaucratic structure which stimulates institutional innovations and the dissemination of best practices. In turn, innovation policies are diffuse and biased towards the academic sector in Brazil.
    Date: 2013–08
  13. By: Gagik Makaryan; Mihran Galstyan
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity. Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
    Keywords: Labour Economics, Labour Markets, Labour Mobility, Armenia
    JEL: D78 F22 F24 I25 J01 J15 J40 J61 J83
    Date: 2013–09
  14. By: Tom Coupé; Hannah Vakhitova
    Abstract: Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the numer of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
    Keywords: Labour Economics, Labour Markets, Labour Mobility, Ukraine
    JEL: D78 F22 F24 I25 J01 J15 J40 J61 J83
    Date: 2013–09
  15. By: Xinxin Chen; Yaojiang Shi; Hongmei Yi; Linxiu Zhang; Di Mo; James Chu; Prashant Loyalka; Scott Rozelle
    Abstract: A significant gap remains between rural and urban students in the rate of admission to senior high school. One reason for this gap may be high tuition and other school fees at the senior high school level. By reducing student expectations of attending high school, high tuition and school fees can reduce student academic performance in junior high school. In this paper we evaluate the impact of a senior high tuition relief program on the test scores of poor, rural seventh grade students in China. We surveyed three counties in Shaanxi Province and exploit the fact that, while the counties are adjacent to one another and share similar characteristics, only one of the three implemented a tuition relief program. Using several alternative estimation strategies, including difference-in-differences (DD), difference-indifference-in-differences (DDD), propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-indifferences matching (DDM), we find that the tuition program has a statistically significant and positive impact on the math scores of seventh grade students. More importantly, this program is shown to have the largest (and only significant) impact on the poorest students.
    Keywords: Tuition relief program, education program evaluation, rural China
    JEL: I22 O12 O15
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Yuanhua Feng (University of Paderborn); Lixin Sun (Shandong University)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-term and short-term risk components in Chinese financial market and to compare them with those in mature financial markets. For this purpose a most recently proposed Semi-APARCH is applied to the Shanghai Index and the Shenzhen Index, and four financial indexes in mature markets. A few important empirical findings are achieved. Firstly, the current long-term risk in Chinese financial market is stable and at a low level. Secondly, the dependence level between long-term risk in Chinese financial market and that in mature financial market is not high. Thirdly, the short-term risk in Chinese financial market differs to that in a mature financial market at least in two ways: 1) The leverage effect in Chinese financial market is much lower than that in a mature financial market. 2) The innovations in Chinese financial returns is nearly heavy-tailed distributed. This is however not the case in a mature market.
    Keywords: Chinese financial market, mature financial markets, long-term risk, short-term risk, semiparametric APARCH
    JEL: C14 G10
    Date: 2013–12
  17. By: Ali J Al-sadiq
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, the growth rate of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from developing and transition economies has increased significantly. Given the role of physical capital accumulation in determining the economic growth rate, it is important to assess how domestic investment responds to such outflows. This study empirically examines the effects of outward FDI on domestic investment in developing countries. Using data from 121 developing and transition economies over the period 1990–2010, the results suggest that FDI outflows negatively impact the rate of domestic investment.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment;Developing countries;Transition economies;Capital flows;Economic growth;Economic models;Foreign Direct Investment, Developing Countries, GMM
    Date: 2013–02–26
  18. By: CHEN Xiaohong; QI Changdong; ZHOU Yan; ZONG Fangyu
    Abstract: In this study, we administered surveys to 47 Chinese enterprises in six industries related to their overseas investments and operations. The results indicate that a number of them have established overseas networks, expanded markets, and upgraded their technological capabilities through internationalization. Although respondents from all sampled enterprises expressed an intention to increase investments abroad in a general sense, some indicated a specific intention to do so on the basis of new manufacturing capacities. Most of the surveyed enterprises' intentions to invest abroad are due to their desire to gain technological capabilities. Firms in the energy and material industries also expressed a desire to gain access to resources. In terms of the extent to which the surveyed enterprises had an international presence, most were in the preliminary stages of their transnational operations, with a few having progressed to the point of currently engaging in preliminary internationalization and globalization. Survey results also demonstrate multiple ways in which these enterprises develop overseas, but show that they all share an emphasis on improving the degree of competitiveness and promoting transnational operations and development through increased integration of the global value chain. In addition to the survey, we also developed an analytic model to explore the relationship between the overseas operations' income and strength, overseas development strategies, and the overseas experiences of Chinese enterprises. Through this model, a positive correlation between the overseas operations' income and the three outcome variables is revealed. Accordingly, we believe that as the Chinese enterprises strengthen, overseas investment among them will continue to rise.
    Date: 2013–09
  19. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Lithuania has achieved significant macroeconomic rebalancing since the 2008–09 crisis, and vulnerabilities have diminished. The current account and fiscal deficits were substantially reduced, debt has fallen in most sectors of the economy, and wage compression quickly restored competitiveness. The latter laid the basis for a strong exportled recovery, which shifted the engine of growth to the tradable sector. Vulnerabilities have declined in the largely foreign-owned banking sector, as the loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio has dropped markedly. GDP per capita has recovered to its pre-crisis peak, although Lithuania’s shrinking population also contributed to this.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic recovery;Economic growth;Unemployment;Labor market policy;Fiscal policy;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Credit expansion;Staff Reports;Public information notices;Lithuania;
    Date: 2013–03–28
  20. By: Il Houng Lee; Xu Qingjun; Murtaza H. Syed
    Abstract: In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this not only holds up well empirically but may also be superior to the static dependency ratios typically employed in the literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework and find that China’s demographics should have induced a negative current account in the 2000s and a positive one in the 2010s given the rising share of prime savers, only turning negative around 2045. The opposite is true for the United States and Western Europe. The observed divergence in current account outcomes from the simulated path appears to have been partly policy induced. Over the next couple of decades, individual countries’ convergence toward the simulated savings pattern will be influenced by their past divergences and future policy choices. Other implications arising from China’s demography, including the growth model, the pension system, the labor market, and the public finances are also briefly reviewed.
    Keywords: Savings;China;Current account;Aging;Labor markets;Pensions;Public finance;China, Aging, Demographics, Savings, Current Account, Global Imbalances
    Date: 2013–03–28
  21. By: Ratinger, Tomas; Boskova, Iveta
    Abstract: A mobilisation of research, knowledge transfer and innovation to deal with the current challenges as raising world food demand while protecting natural resources is a priority area of the EU. The effective knowledge transfer and innovation activities in the agri-food supply chain may push all producers in the vertical to improve their competitiveness while saving resources. In the paper we examine the current level of innovation activities and knowledge transfer in milk processing industry in the Czech Republic, with a particular focus on the collaboration of firms with R&D organisations and other important agents, in order to assess the potential for enhancing sustainable dairy production. Most of the interviewed milk processors confirmed that sustainability objective did not rank high within firms’ strategies while it showed a great potential for innovations. It is apparent from the conducted interviews with stakeholders as well as from the statistics that the level of cooperation for innovations is rather low among the Czech food and particularly dairy processors. The low cooperation level concerns not only research institution but also other agents including farmers. This is in contrast to considering cost as a hurdle for innovations. The lack of cooperation among producers can partly be accounted to property rights protection and the need to get advantage over the competition. The interviews and the statistics showed that companies with in-house R&D staff have higher absorption capacity and thus requirements concerning cooperation with research institutions and that these firms are not satisfied with what is offered in the country and seek support abroad. The current support programme increased the sector innovation activity, but at the same time used-up limited capacities of the national research base. Continuation of the support in the current way seems unsustainable.
    Keywords: Sectoral system of innovation, absorption capacity, dairy processing industry, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
    Date: 2013
  22. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal policy;Wage increases;Debt sustainability;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Liquidity management;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Post-program monitoring;Staff Reports;Public information notices;Belarus;
    Date: 2013–06–12

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