nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2013‒08‒31
twenty-two papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. A Gravity Model of Russian Trade: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Socio-Cultural Similarity By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Suganuma, Keiko
  2. Modeling Trends, Cyclical Movements and Turning Points of the Chinese Economy By Ataman Ozyildirim; Harry Wu
  3. The Russian gas industry : challenges to the "Gazprom model" By Catherine Locatelli
  4. Forecasting Chinese Households’ Demand from Home Production By Yabin Wang
  5. From global public good to regional economic services: A comparative study on the development of climate change as economic goods in China and the EU By Li, Ying Ming; Schwarze, Reimund
  6. The State Advances, the Private Sector Retreats: Firm Effects of China’s Great Stimulus Program By Johansson, Anders C.; Feng, Xunan
  7. A Model of Chinese Capital Account Liberalisation By Dong He; Paul Luk
  8. Growth and Evolution in China's Agricultural Support Policies By Gale, Fred
  9. Religious Identity, Public Goods and Centralization: Evidence from Russian and Israeli Cities By Theocharis Grigoriadis; Benno Torgler
  10. Is mining fuelling long-run growth in Russia? Industry productivity growth trends since 1995 By Timmer , Marcel P.; Voskoboynikov , Ilya B.
  11. Macroecnomic Impacts of FDI in Transition Economies: A Meta-Study By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Tokunaga, Masahiro
  12. The Macroeconomics evaluation of Climate Change Model (MECC-Model): The case Study of China By Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo
  13. Downward Accountability in Response to Collective Actions: The Political Economy of Public Goods Provision in China By Li, Yuan
  14. Реформа РАН: Экспертный анализ: Часть I. Реформа РАН: проект Минобрнауки By Polterovich, Victor
  15. China's evolving green planning system: Are targets the answer? By Kostka, Genia
  16. Intergovernmental Fiscal Relationships in China: A Simple Model Based on the Nonsymmetric Nash Solution By Mototsugu Fukushige; Yingxin Shi
  17. Urbanisation and Green Growth in China By OECD
  18. Institutional development and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China By Hasan, Iftekhar; Song, Liang; Wachtel , Paul
  19. Decomposing patterns of emission intensity in the EU and China: how much does trade matter? By di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie
  20. Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries By Hasan, Iftekhar; Jackowicz, Krzysztof; Kowalewski , Oskar; Kozlowski , Lukasz
  21. A socio-economic picture of Kosovar migrants and their origin farm households By Möllers, Judith; Meyer, Wiebke; Xhema, Sherif; Buchenrieder, Gertrud

  1. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Suganuma, Keiko
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimated a gravity model of Russian trade using panel data from Russia and 23 OECD member countries. Our estimation results indicate that foreign direct investment and socio-cultural similarity are determining factors in the trade volume between Russia and these developed economies. We also found that the trade and investment activities of Russian firms differ considerably from their counterparts in developed economies.
    Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, gravity model, Poisson regression, WTO, Russia
    JEL: F14 F21 P33
    Date: 2013–08
  2. By: Ataman Ozyildirim (The Conference Board); Harry Wu (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo and The Conference Board)
    Abstract: This study appraises The Conference Board (TCB) coincident and leading economic indices (CEI and LEI) for China with a focus on China CEI. The evaluation is mainly based on a critical discussion of the major data problems in the Chinese official statistics and their implications in modeling China’s macroeconomic dynamics, and a development of a set of new commodity indicators as alternatives to some of the components in the existing TCB China CEI and LEI. It also examines the trends, cyclical movements and turning points in the Chinese economy as identified by the TCB China indices. Our empirical findings through regressions show that despite the data problems the existing TCB China CEI is robust in predicting the cyclic movements of GDP. However, commodity-based indicators which tend to pronounce the variations of industrial output indeed better model the dynamics of GDP.
    Date: 2013–06
  3. By: Catherine Locatelli (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)
    Abstract: The Russian gas sector is undergoing significant changes which is opening the way for an original reform. Because of the particular institutional and economic context of the country, this reorganisation is not taking place along the lines of the de-integrated model of the EU. It is characterised by increasingly significant competitive fringes. Gazprom remains the main actor of the Russian gas industry but the company is facing challenges on its main export market and an increasing competition at home with the arrival of new gas firms, independents and Russian oil companies. For Gazprom, the aim issue is to develop more flexible strategies for export markets but also on its internal market. These internal changes will not be without consequence on the country's export strategy and the implication for international markets could be considerable.
    Keywords: Russia ; reform of the gas organisational model ; institutional analysis ; Gazprom ; gas industry
    Date: 2013–06
  4. By: Yabin Wang (University of California, Santa Cruz)
    Abstract: As the Chinese market economy expands and market institutions become stronger, there will be more incentives for Chinese households to substitute market activity for home production.The goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of the potential Chinese consumer demand for household services. Using dataset from the American Time Use Survey and the China Health and Nutrition Survey, I compare households’ demand for services and home production between US and China. A standard choice-theoretic model of the household is used to estimate the structural parameters and to quantitatively forecast Chinese households’ service demand.
    Date: 2013–06
  5. By: Li, Ying Ming; Schwarze, Reimund
    Abstract: Economics is an important perspective of growing interest to analyze the climate change issues, especially, when we concentrate on the development of market-based instruments at the regional level. Starting from the fundamental characteristics of economic goods, the research put forwards a definition of climate change goods and, furthermore, builds a model of climate change policies in three transitional phases: from global public goods to regional private goods. Based on this model, the paper analyzes the development of climate change strategies in China and the EU, specifically considering the climate policies in Central and Eastern European economies in transition. While international climate negotiations remain important, the development of market-based instruments at the regional development is an important issue of transformation and social learning. From our comparative study, the transitional phase will last long period for all regions. Furthermore, the phase of a mature, perfectly functioning market, will never be reached because some public good elements of climate change will remain. There are many common issues faced by the EU and China, from a transitional perspective such as national harmonisation versus regional differentiation, and integration of top-down versus bottom-up strategies, and so on. Mutual learning on capacity development in China and the EU will be beneficial even if linking of climate change goods' markets in China and the EU will only be possible after 2020 due to divergent backgrounds. -- Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Perspektiven werden zunehmend bedeutsamer für die Klimapolitik, besonders wenn es um die Entwicklung von dezentralen marktbasierten Instrumenten geht. Ausgehend von der grundlegenden Typologie ökonomischer Güter wird ein konzeptioneller Rahmen für die Entwicklung von Klimagütern in drei Phasen skizziert. Auf dieser Grundlage werden die historischen und aktuellen Klimastrategien in China und der EU analysiert. Besondere Berücksichtigung finden dabei die Transformationsprozesse in der Klimapoltik der neuen Beitrittsländer in Mittel- und Osteuropa. Auch wenn eine weltweite Klimapolitik (Top down) unverzichtbar ist, müssen - parallel - regionale Transformations- und Lernprozesse stattfinden, deren Entwicklung lange Zeit braucht und am Ende immer Elemente staatlicher Regulierung und öffentlicher Gutsbereitstellung beinhalten. Eine reine Marktlösung ist nicht möglich. Aus dieser Transformationsperspektive entstehen zahlreiche gemeinsame Themen für die wissenschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen China und der EU, z.B. die Frage der (inter)nationalen Harmonisierung versus regionalen Differenzierung und die Verbindung von Top-down und Bottom-Up Strategien. Die Perspektive der Verknüpfung von Klimagütermärkten zwischen der EU und China ist wegen der Ungleichzeitigkeit der Entwicklung und anhaltender Systemunterschiede allerdings nicht vor 2020 möglich.
    Keywords: Climate Change Goods,Sustainable Development,Economies in Transition,Market-based Instrument,Comparative Study,China,EU
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Johansson, Anders C. (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute); Feng, Xunan (Shanghai University)
    Abstract: It has been argued that the Chinese state sector is advancing at the cost of the private sector. Focusing on publicly listed firms which are divided into state- and private-controlled firms, we investigate preferential access to debt and effects on firm performance. Focusing on the large stimulus program launched in the fall of 2008, we show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were better able to maintain their leverage levels and had better access to debt of both short and long maturities compared to privately controlled firms. Furthermore, we show that political connections obtained through political participation help mitigate the discrimination private firms faces in a transition economy where the state controls capital allocation. We also find that preferential access to debt financing does not help SOEs improve firm performance relative to that of private firms. Political participation does however help improve private firms’ performance. These results lend support to the argument that the state is indeed advancing at the cost of the private sector and that SOEs still face a broader set of goals than just profit maximization and/or are less efficient than private firms.
    Keywords: State-owned enterprises; private enterprises; fiscal and monetary stimulus; firm performance; capital structure; debt financing; political participation; political connections; China
    JEL: G30 G32 L33 P20 P26
    Date: 2013–08–22
  7. By: Dong He (Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Paul Luk (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: In shaping the evolution of the global financial system in the decade ahead, few events will likely be more significant than capital account liberalisation in China and the internationalisation of the renminbi. This paper provides a theory-based enquiry into the contours of China's international balance sheets after the renminbi becomes convertible under the capital account. We construct a two-country general equilibrium model with trading in equities and bonds and calibrate the model with US and Chinese data. We interpret Chinese capital account liberalisation as a removal of restrictions that prohibit agents from trading Chinese bonds and US equities. We explore how international risk-sharing can be achieved through portfolio diversification in each of these asset market configurations. We also look at how these holdings would change as China gradually rebalances its production with a higher share of labour income, and as the productivity gap between China and the US narrows. We find that both US and Chinese residents would have incentives to increase their holdings in each other's equities, and to issue debt in each other's currency. We interpret the latter observation as the co-existence of the US dollar and the renminbi as major international currencies.
    Keywords: China, Country Portfolios, Capital Account Liberalization, Renminbi Internationalization
    JEL: F3 F4 G1
    Date: 2013–08
  8. By: Gale, Fred
    Abstract: China is perhaps the most prominent example of a developing country that has transitioned from taxing to supporting agriculture. In recent years, Chinese price supports and subsidies have risen at an accelerating pace after they were linked to rising production costs. Per-acre subsidy payments to grain producers now equal 7 to 15 percent of those producers’ gross income, but grain payments appear to have little influence on production decisions. Chinese authorities began raising price supports annually to bolster incentives and Chinese prices for major farm commodities are rising above world prices, helping to attract a surge of agricultural imports. U.S. agricultural exports to China tripled in value during the period when China’s agricultural support was accelerating. Overall, China’s expansion of support is loosely constrained by World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, but the country’s price-support programs could exceed WTO limits in coming years. Chinese officials promise to continue increasing domestic policy support for agriculture, but the mix of policies may evolve as the Chinese agricultural sector becomes more commercialized and faces competitive pressures.
    Keywords: China, agricultural subsidies, price supports, direct payments, grain, World Trade Organization, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  9. By: Theocharis Grigoriadis; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effects of religious identity – defined both as personal identification with a religious tradition and institutional ideas on the provision of public goods – on attitudes toward central government. We explore whether citizens belonging to collectivist rather than individualist religious denominations are more likely to evaluate their central government positively. Moreover, we explore whether adherence to collectivist norms of economic and political organization leads to a positive evaluation of central government. Surveys were conducted in Russia and Israel as these countries provide a mosaic of three major world religions – Judaism, Eastern Orthodoxy and Sunni Islam. The information gathered also allows us to study whether attitudes towards religious institutions such as the Russian Orthodox Church, the Chief Rabbinate in Jerusalem, the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, and the Greek-Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem in Israel are able to predict positive attitudes toward centralized forms of governance. We find strong support for the proposition that collectivist norms and an institutional religious identity enhance positive attitudes towards central government.
    Keywords: Religious identity; public goods; collectivism; individualism; local government; centralization; Russia; Israel
    JEL: P16 P17 P21 P35 P51 P52 Z12
    Date: 2013–08
  10. By: Timmer , Marcel P. (BOFIT); Voskoboynikov , Ilya B. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been among the highest in the world since the mid-1990s. Previous growth accounting research suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyse for the first time the drivers of Russian growth for thirty-four industries over the period 1995 to 2008. We pay in particular attention to the construction of a proper measure of capital services, to use in place of the stock measures employed in previous research. Based on these new measures, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as by MFP growth. Mining and Retailing account for an increasing share of the inputs, but are weak in terms of MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was rapid in goods-producing industries, but the sector’s GDP share declined. The major drivers of MFP growth were in the high-skilled services industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s.
    Keywords: industrial growth accounting; structural change; Russia
    JEL: L16 O47 P28
    Date: 2013–08–12
  11. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Tokunaga, Masahiro
    Abstract: In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis of the literature that empirically examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. We found that existing studies indicate a growth-enhancing effect of FDI in the region as a whole. The results of our meta-regression analysis suggest that the effect size and statistical significance of the reported estimates strongly depend on study conditions. In particular, the estimation period, data type, estimator, and type of FDI variable are important factors that explain the heterogeneity in the empirical results. The degree of freedom and the research quality greatly affect estimates of the FDI variable as well. We also found that the relevant studies fail to present genuine evidence of a non-zero FDI effect due to the presence of publication selection bias and insufficient numbers of empirical evidence. More research is necessary to identify the true effect.
    Keywords: economic transition, macroeconomic impacts of FDI, meta-analysis, publication selection bias, Central and Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union
    JEL: F21 F23 F43 P33
    Date: 2013–08
  12. By: Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo
    Abstract: Global climate change has a potentially large impact on economic growth but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of our paper is to set forth a model – the macroeconomics evaluation of climate change (MECC) model – to evaluate the impact of climate change on GNP growth. The model is based on five basic indicators – (i) the climate change growth rates (αi); (ii) the national climate change vulnerability rate (ΩT); (iii) the climate change magnitude rate (Π); (iv) the economic desgrowth rate (δ); (v) and the CC-Surface. In addition, we apply the MECC Model to the case of China to evaluate its impact on the Chinese economy.
    Keywords: Climate change, economic desgrowth, China
    JEL: O4 O40 Q54
    Date: 2013–08–17
  13. By: Li, Yuan (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute)
    Abstract: Will autocratic governments implement policies to satisfy the people’s demands in order to prevent large scale social unrest? This paper explores this question through quantitatively analysis of the political economy of public goods provision in Chinese provinces. I collected data on the number of labor disputes to measure collective actions. My sample includes provincial leaders whose incentives to deliver public goods can either be explained as a result of upward accountability towards the Center or downward accountability towards the citizens. The confounding factor of upward accountability is ruled out by using two-step estimation; and the reverse causality between public goods provision and collective actions is controlled by using instrumental variables. Result suggests that provincial leaders will implement policies more in favor of the citizens in response to intensified labor disputes.
    Keywords: Accountability; Collective Actions; Public Goods
    JEL: D74 H11 H40 P26
    Date: 2013–08–27
  14. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: The theory of reforms usually assumes that a designer aims to increase public welfare under existing constraints. In practice, however, initiators of reforms quite often proceed from false premises, and pursue political and-or self-interested goals. In this paper, we analyze an example of such an initiative - the project of reform of the Russian Academy of Science, offered by The Ministry of Education and Science in June 2013. It is shown, that among the political motives which stimulated the appearance of the project, the main one was the intention to deprive the community of researchers of its organizational independence. This motive was supported by the erroneous thesis, according to which Russian Academy of Science is not capable to provide innovation-based development whereas for successful imitation of technologies, fundamental researches are ostensibly not necessary at all. The analysis shows the exigency of reforming the Russian system of preparation and realization of reforms.
    Keywords: reform design; costs of reform; civil society; fundamental research; catching up development; science and authorities
    JEL: B52 O43 P11
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Kostka, Genia
    Abstract: China's national leaders have recently set ambitious goals to restructure and diversify the economy towards a more resource-efficient and sustainable growth path. To address the growing national environment and energy concerns, leaders introduced several binding environmental targets for government departments and large enterprises. The heavy reliance on a target-based implementation approach raises questions about the effectiveness of this strategy in the short and long run for environmental governance in China. Based on fieldwork in Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shandong provinces in 2012, this paper studies the desirable and undesirable outcomes of binding environmental targets in China's evolving green planning system. This paper argues that environmental targets have a signaling function that has resulted in ecological issues movement onto local governments' core policy agendas. However, in the nascent green planning system, classic planning problems have generated undesirable consequences such that that environmental targets are not always achieving their intended goals. Strategic and cyclical behavior by local government officials in leadership positions often lead to short-term maximization actions instead of long-term innovative environmental management. This analysis of local leaders' responses to top-down targets aims to generate a more realistic picture of what binding environmental targets can and cannot achieve. --
    Keywords: environmental policy implementation,regulation,command and control instruments,targets,China,authoritarian environmentalism
    JEL: Q48 Q28 Q00 P21 O21 R58
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Mototsugu Fukushige (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Yingxin Shi (Department of Economics & Management, Dalian Nationalities University)
    Abstract: We propose a new empirical approach to analyzing fiscal decentralization and apply it to Chinese intergovernmental fiscal relationships between the central government and provincial governments. In calculating budgetary revenue and expenditure shares, we include extra budgetary revenue and expenditure. We find that although an increase in either income inequality or real per capita GDP lowers local governmentsf bargaining power within the budgetary system, local governments can offset this by obtaining more bargaining power over extra budgetary expenditures. Another finding is that although urbanization increases provincial governmentsf budgetary revenues, it also restricts the scope for further budgetary expenditure.
    Keywords: nonsymmetric Nash bargaining, intergovernmental fiscal relationships, China
    JEL: H77 D72 P35
    Date: 2013–08
  17. By: OECD
    Abstract: This working paper assesses national policy and governance mechanisms that can influence green growth in Chinese cities. It applies the OECD conceptual framework for urban green growth to examine the potential challenges and opportunities for increasing economic growth through reducing the environmental impact of urban land use, transport and buildings; through improving water and air quality; and through fostering supply and demand of green products and services. The paper first situates the issue of green growth within the nexus of urbanisation and environmental challenges now facing China. This is followed by a review of environmental and quality of life challenges posed by rapid urbanisation. Opportunities for national policies to influence green growth in four key urban policy sectors are then examined. The paper concludes with an assessment of governance challenges and considers potential changes to facilitate economic growth while reducing the environmental impact of cities.
    Keywords: sustainable development, innovation, transport, renewable energy, China, climate change, energy efficiency, urban sustainability, cities, green technologies, green growth, green economy, multi-level governance, urban development, regional clusters, green cities, attractiveness, metro-region
    JEL: O18 O44 Q01 Q55 Q58 R11 R58
    Date: 2013–05–17
  18. By: Hasan, Iftekhar (BOFIT); Song, Liang (BOFIT); Wachtel , Paul (BOFIT)
    Abstract: Better developed legal and political institutions result in greater availability of reliable firm-specific information. When stock prices reflect more firm-specific information there will be less stock price synchronicity. This paper traces the experience of China, an economy undergoing dramatic institutional change in the last 20 years with rich variation in experiences across provinces. We show that stock price synchronicity is lower when there is institutional development in terms of property rights protection and rule of law. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of political pluralism on synchronicity. A more pluralistic regime reduces uncertainty and opaqueness regarding government interventions and therefore increases the value of firm-specific information that reduces synchronicity.
    Keywords: institutions; China; stock price synchronicity
    JEL: G14 G15 G24 G38
    Date: 2013–08–12
  19. By: di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie
    Abstract: This paper uses data from the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to examine channels through which CO2 emissions are embodied within and imported into the European production process. We apply a metric to calculate sectoral emission intensity and thus rank countries and sectors in the EU in terms of their emission intensity, and look at the evolution of patterns of emission intensity in 2005 and in 2009. We use an input-output price model to simulate the effect that a rise in the price of EU-ETS allowances, from $17 to $25 /tonne, would have on the final price of goods in each EU country and sector. We find that all countries in the EU reduced the emission-intensity of their production processes from 2005 to 2009, and we find that the reduction was greatest in those sectors regulated under the ETS. Comparisons of emission intensity between countries show that industries in Central and Eastern Europe are more emission intensive than those of Northern Europe, where industries import emission-intensive goods rather than producing them domestically. Finally we examine the trade in intermediate goods from China into the EU to examine possible increases in carbon leakage from 2005 to 2009. Results show that while emissions embodied in imported intermediate goods have increased from 2005 to 2009, this increase is not limited to, nor particularly notable in, the sectors regulated by the ETS.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions/data/europe/Trade
    Date: 2013–07
  20. By: Hasan, Iftekhar (BOFIT); Jackowicz, Krzysztof (BOFIT); Kowalewski , Oskar (BOFIT); Kozlowski , Lukasz (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The Central European banking industry is dominated by foreign-owned banks. During the recent crisis, for the first time since the transition, foreign parent companies were frequently in a worse financial condition than their subsidiaries. This situation created a unique opportunity to study new aspects of market discipline exercised by non-financial depositors. Using a comprehensive data set, we find that the recent crisis did not change the sensitivity of deposit growth rates to accounting risk measures. We establish that depositors’ actions were more strongly influenced by negative press rumors concerning parent companies than by fundamentals. The impact of rumors was especially perceptible when rumors turned out ex post to be founded. Additionally, we document that public aid announcements were primarily interpreted by depositors as confirmation of a parent company’s financial distress. Our results, indicating that depositors react rationally to sources of information other than financial statements, have policy implications, as depositor disci-pline is usually the only viable and universal source of market discipline for banks in emerging economies.
    Keywords: depositor behavior; market discipline; crisis; emerging markets; market rumors
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2013–08–12
  21. By: Möllers, Judith; Meyer, Wiebke; Xhema, Sherif; Buchenrieder, Gertrud
    Abstract: Kosovo's small economy substantially relies on money from abroad: an extraordinarily high number of migrants contribute to foreign capital inflow through remittances; remittances represented around 13% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009. This means that the well-being of many Kosovar families financially depends on their migrated family members (UNDP 2010). The most important destination of Kosovar migrants, Germany, alone hosts an estimated number of around 300,000 Albanian migrants from Kosovo. This is about half of all migrated Kosovar Albanians. However, reliable information on the specific situation of the migrants and their origin households is scarce. Adding to recent efforts to gain more knowledge about Kosovo and its remittances sending migrants, e.g. the UNDP's 2010 Kosovo Remittance Study, this discussion paper puts a specific focus on rural Kosovo, where many migrants come from and more than half of the Kosovar population and two thirds of the poor live (World Bank and SOK 2011). Our study aims at shedding light on the socio-economic situation of Kosovar farm households with migrants in Germany. We present data on both sides of migration: the migrant household in the destination country as well as the remittances receiving household in Kosovo. In our analysis of migrant households, we present results on socio-economic features of three migration waves. Individual demographic characteristics of the migrant are analysed as well as economic features including the income situation and the remitting behaviour. We furthermore discuss the nature of migration - if it is planned as a temporary or permanent move - and the return prospects of the migrants. For the corresponding farm households in Kosovo we present results on their socio-economic situation and specifically look at poverty and inequality indicators and discuss possible development impacts in the recipient households. We analyse an original sample of 226 Albanian migrants from Kosovo who have been interviewed by means of a structured questionnaire in 2009/10 in Germany as well as the corresponding sample of their origin farm households in rural Kosovo. For a comparison of recipient with non-recipient households we draw from an additional set of 55 non-recipient Kosovar households. -- Die kosovarische Wirtschaft hängt stark von Geldflüssen aus dem Ausland ab. Eine hohe Zahl von Migranten tragen mit sogenannten Rücksendungen zu diesem Auslandskapital bei. Die Rücksendungen machen etwa 11% des Bruttoinlandsprodukts des Kosovo im Jahr 2009 aus. Das bedeutet, dass viele kosovarische Familien finanziell von ihren migrierten Familienmitgliedern abhängen. Das Hauptzielland von Migranten aus dem Kosovo ist Deutschland, wo allein geschätzte 300 000 albanische Migranten aus dem Kosovo zu verzeichnen sind, und somit in etwa die Hälftealler albanischen Migranten aus dem Kosovo. Genaue und belastbare Angaben über die Situation dieser Migranten und über die Situation ihrer Heimathaushalte sind bis heute nur schwer zu erlangen. Dieses Diskussionspapier stellt einige neue, empirisch basierte Erkenntnisse vor, indem es mit einem Fokus auf den ländlichen Raum des Kosovo einige wichtige Facetten ergänzt, die auch in anderen aktuellen Studien, beispielsweise die 2010 Kosovo Remittance Study der UNDP, angesprochen werden. Der ländliche Raum ist deshalb so wichtig, weil viele Migranten von hier stammen und etwa die Hälfte der Bevölkerung des Kosovo und zwei Drittel der armen Bevölkerung hier leben. Unsere Ergebnisse befassen sich mit der speziellen Situation kleinbäuerlicher Haushalte im Kosovo sowie der zu diesen Haushalten gehörigen Arbeitsmigranten in Deutschland. Es werden hierbei beide Seiten der Migration ins Auge gefasst, also sowohl die Migranten selbst als auch die Ursprungshaushalte aus dem ländlichen Kosovo, die von Rücksendungen profitieren. Im Bezug auf die Migranten präsentieren wir Ergebnisse im Hinblick auf drei Migrationswellen. Wir betrachten individuelle und haushaltsbasierte Migrationsmotive und geben Einblick in die soziökonomische Situation der Migranten. Wir gehen dabei auch auf die Dauer der Migration und die Rückkehrwahrscheinlichkeit ein. Die Ursprungshaushalte werden ebenfallsim Hinblick auf sozioökonomische Variablen hin analysiert. Wir diskutieren hier speziell die Wirkungen der Geldsendungen auf Armut, Ungleichheit und mögliche Entwicklungseffekte. Die Datenbasis unserer Analyse ergibt sich aus einem Sample von 226 albanischen Migrantenhaushalten aus dem Kosovo, die im Winter 2009/10 in Deutschland interviewt wurden. Ebenfalls Teil der Erhebung sind die dazugehörigen Ursprungshaushalte, die im Anschluss im Kosovo interviewt wurden. Für einen Vergleich von Geldsendungsempfängern und Haushalten die keine Geldsendungen erhalten, stützen wir uns auf einen ergänzenden Datensatz von 55 Nicht-Geldsendungsempfängern.
    Keywords: migration,remittances,Kosovo,rural households
    JEL: F22 F24 O15
    Date: 2013
  22. By: DIMITRIU, Raluca (Institutul de Cercetari Juridice - Academia Româna); TICLEA, Tiberiu (Institutul de Cercetari Juridice - Academia Româna); CHIVU, Luminita (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice - Academia Româna); CIUTACU, Constantin (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice - Academia Româna)
    Abstract: Romanian labour and industrial relations law has undergone wide-ranging changes in recent years. The Social Dialogue Law No. 62/2011 repealed and replaced several laws regulating industrial relations, while the Romanian Labour Code was extensively modified through the Law No. 40/2011. This legislation followed the Romanian government’s passing of a broad package of economic and labour reforms comprising wide-ranging cuts in entitlements and tax rises. These reforms were aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability and reducing government budget deficits, thus satisfying conditions in agreements Romania had signed with various international financial institutions. The authors themselves point out in the study that the time lapsed from the date of these legislative changes is rather short. However, the official statistics show that in 2008 the employees’ wages accounted for 42% of the gross domestic product, and the gross operating surplus for 47.2% of the GDP. In 2011, the share of the employees’ wages dropped to 40.6%, and the surplus rose to 50.8%. In other words, the crisis took its toll mostly on the workers and their earnings. According to the study, the reforms have had detrimental social impacts and have not delivered the economic benefits promised. Workers and their representatives have lost a wide array of entitlements, leaving them in a very precarious working situation. There has been a decline in both the quantity and the quality of work and employment. There has also been a decline in the number of employed people and in the average number of hours worked per week. The reforms have also caused collective bargaining in Romania to stagnate. At all levels, there is a noticeable drop in the extent of collective bargaining and the number of agreements. Even those agreements which have been signed cover less workers and their provisions offer inferior protection to employees compared to previous agreements in similar contexts. This poses longer term concerns for regulation, working conditions and social stability. The English version of the study was published on Labordoc database (
    Keywords: labour market legislative reforms, employment, wages, collective bargaining and social partners, working conditions, economic and financial crisis
    JEL: K31 J21 J28 J31 J41 J51 J52 J81 J83
    Date: 2013–08

This nep-tra issue is ©2013 by J. David Brown. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.