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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Yuqing Xing (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Manisha Pradhananga |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis and the recent growth slowdown in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have led to questions about the sustainability of PRC growth. The argument is that the PRC is too dependent on external demand and that it needs to rebalance its economy toward domestic consumption. However, conventional measures of external demand—share of net exports and exports as a share of gross domestic product (GDP)—are biased and do not accurately measure the contribution of external demand to GDP growth. In this paper, we propose two measures that are simple modifications of the conventional measures. We argue that our proposed measures provide a more accurate estimate of the vulnerability of the PRC economy to external shocks, in the form of sudden drops in exports and foreign direct investment (FDI). Our estimates show that in 2001 exports and FDI accounted for 18.2% of GDP growth and by 2004 the share had risen to 49%. During 2005–07, the contribution of exports and FDI to growth remained 38%–40%. Our estimates also show that the impressive recovery of the PRC economy in the post-crisis period owed at least 53% of its growth to exports and FDI. Based on these results, we conclude that the PRC economy remains highly dependent on external demand in the form of exports and FDI, and rebalancing the economy toward domestic demand has not yet been achieved. |
| Keywords: | People’s Republic of China, PRC, external demand, GDP growth, export growth |
| JEL: | F43 E01 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23507&r=tra |
| By: | Han, Jun (Nankai University); Liu, Runjuan (University of Alberta, Alberta School of Business); Ural Marchand, Beyza (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Zhang, Junsen (Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the Chinese tariff pass-through mechanism. We estimate how market structure, specifically the size of the private sector, affects the transmission of prices from the border to consumers by using household survey data from urban China. Our results suggest that changes in trade policy are not perfectly transmitted to the consumers and imperfections in the local market partially isolate households from the effects of trade policies. Incorporating the price changes of tradable and nontradable goods, we investigate how trade liberalization affects household welfare through changes in the cost of consumption. Our results show that trade liberalization, particularly China’s WTO accession, brings welfare gains to almost every household across the per capita expenditure spectrum, and that the distributional effect is strongly pro-poor. |
| Keywords: | Market Structure; Trade Liberalization; Pass-Through; Welfare |
| JEL: | D31 D40 F14 O12 |
| Date: | 2013–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2013_011&r=tra |
| By: | Aristovnik, Aleksander; Jaklič, Ksenja |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the study of older workers’ job satisfaction as a factor that, combined with other personal and job-related factors, can significantly influence the decision to postpone retirement when this decision is in the hands of an individual. Starting from the fact that the employment rate of older workers in Slovenia in 2011 was the lowest in the EU, the article aims to establish the level of older workers’ job satisfaction in Slovenia compared to the EU, analyse its dimensions, its specifics related to age, gender, sector of economic activities and type of profession, as well as ascertain what determines it the most. A statistical analysis of the results of the Fifth European Working Conditions Survey of 2010 reveals that Slovenia ranks 15th among the EU member states in terms of older workers’ job satisfaction, thus lagging behind the EU average. While Slovenian older workers, the same as their European counterparts, are most satisfied with doing useful work and the least with their prospects for career advancement, a comparison with other EU member states shows that they are relatively dissatisfied with working conditions, salary and adequacy of the motivation to give one’s best performance, and relatively satisfied with doing useful work and with their colleagues. The analysis also shows that the level of older workers’ job satisfaction in Slovenia is determined most by their satisfaction with the adequacy of the motivation to give one’s best performance. |
| Keywords: | older workers, job satisfaction, employment, labour market participation, EU, Slovenia |
| JEL: | J14 J20 J26 J28 |
| Date: | 2013–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48809&r=tra |
| By: | Ieva Brauksa; Ludmila Fadejeva |
| Abstract: | This research gives an overview of labour market internal and occupational mobility in Latvia comparing periods before, during and after the crisis. It uses both the labour flow analysis and the survival analysis to evaluate labour mobility and to determine factors influencing it. The analysis is based on labour force survey (LFS) longitudinal data for 2005–2011. The paper investigates possible asymmetric responses of the labour market during the extreme period of economic boom and bust, provides detailed information on the aspects of labour market mobility (e.g. changes in the types of labour contract, sector and region of work) and factors determining changes in the status of economic activity (employed or unemployed). We also propose a new way for calculating labour market flows to provide information on quarterly changes. |
| Keywords: | labour flows, labour force survey, labour mobility, occupational mobility, unemployment |
| JEL: | J23 J61 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2013–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:201302&r=tra |
| By: | Fei Ren; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market mainly based on the random matrix theory (RMT). The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a rolling window with a size of 400 days. As a consequence, a thorough study of the variation of the interconnection among stocks and its underlying information in different time periods is conducted. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, and the systemic risk is higher in the volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the large eigenvectors in different rolling windows, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which are those industries leading the rise (drop) before (after) the crash. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1308.1154&r=tra |
| By: | Birčiaková, Naďa; Antošová, Veronika; Stávková, Jana |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with an analysis of the effects of education on the income of Czech households from 2006-2010. EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) review results are the main data source. The paper investigates with the living conditions of households and that is mandatory for all states. Based on the unified methodology, that is then possible to make comparison between countries. Households are divided into five categories according to the education attained by the head of the household. It further deals with income differences of individual educational groups expressed by the education coefficient. Households at risk of poverty are also taken into account. Income inequality is measured by way of the Gini coefficient. The analysis uses regression techniques to examine the relation between education and the Gini coefficient, as well as between education and households at risk of poverty. The biggest share is represented by households where the household head has vocational education, followed by households where the household head has secondary education. The regression analyses established strong positive dependence between the education level and Gini coefficient, as well as strong negative dependence between the education level and number of households at risk of poverty. Within analyzed period of five years was observed a negative development in the society in form that there is a bigger possibility of getting into the zone at risk of poverty for households with higher level of education. |
| Keywords: | education, EU-SILC, income, living conditions, poverty |
| JEL: | D3 D31 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48846&r=tra |
| By: | Dumanska, Vita |
| Abstract: | Practically all countries of the world money used to encourage childbirth at some stage of their development. Soviet Union, began to resort to monetary pronatalism, but the birth rate incentives of the second half of 1980 resulted in only short-term increase in the number of newborns. Since 2005, the monetary pronatalism became the dominant trend of population policy in Ukraine as a result of the introduction of substantial financial assistance at birth. As a result of these measures the birth rate indicators have improved, namely: the number of births increased from 426 thousand children in 2005 to 502 thousand in 2011, the birth rate has increased from 1.21 to 1.45, respectively. However, we stress that such results were achieved not only through the use of monetary instruments - during this period the numerous generation of women born in the second half of 1980's entered child-bearing age. Increasing living standards also had a positive impact on reproductive behavior of the population. Year after year the amount of assistance at birth is increasing in Ukraine, i.e. the "price" of a child for the national budget increases. Our calculations show that, on average, public spending per infant has increased 6-fold since 2005, while the number of newborns during this period has grown only by 17%. Assistance at childbirth has evolved in our country from a pronatalist instrument into a component of social security. Author calculations indicate that in 2005 government payments at first birth were almost 2 times higher than the minimum wage, in 2011 this excess was 1.4 times. This fact suggests the possibility of abuse by marginal minded population, because welfare payments in this case exceed labor incomes. Under the influence of modern pronatalist policy a slight increase in birth rate is observed, but it is unknown which category of the population is increasing the number of children. The increase in the number of children in the so-called marginalized sectors of the population, i.e. those with a low educational level, unemployed and socially disadvantaged people, is a cause for concern. In order to achieve sustainable birth rates the combination of monetary stimulus of childbirth and other measures of socio-demographic policies aimed at addressing the urgent problems of young families - housing, creation of opportunities for combining motherhood and work (study), development of pre-school educational institutions (both public and private), etc. is important. |
| Keywords: | pronatalism, childbirth stimulation, demographic crisis, demographic policy, birth rate, monetary pronatalism. |
| JEL: | J1 J18 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48943&r=tra |
| By: | Mirdala, Rajmund |
| Abstract: | One of the key outcomes of open economy macroeconomics refers to a crucial importance of an investment-saving relation affecting a current account determination. However, despite a relative diversity in exchange rate regimes in European transition economies, there is still a substantial potential to analyze price effects of real exchange rate dynamics on current account adjustments. Rigorous investigation of relative changes in real exchange rates leading paths and associated adjustments in current accounts may reveal causal relationship between real exchange rate dynamics and international competitiveness in order to observe its redistributive effects. This purpose is even more significant provided that economic crisis has intensified cross-country expenditure shifting effects that still provide quite diverse and thus spurious effects on current account adjustments. In the paper we analyze main aspects of current account adjustments in European transition economies. Our main objective is to observe a relationship between real exchange rate dynamics and current account adjustments (in countries with different exchange rate arrangements). From estimated VAR model we calculate responses of the current account to the real exchange rate (REER calculated on CPI and ULC base) shock. To provide more rigorous insight into the problem of the current account adjustments according to real exchange rate dynamics we estimate the model for each particular country employing data for two subsequent periods 2000-2007 and 2000-2012. |
| Keywords: | current account adjustments, real exchange rate dynamics, economic growth, economic crisis, vector autoregression, impulse-response function |
| JEL: | C32 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48901&r=tra |