nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2013‒04‒13
twenty papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Russian Fiscal Federalism: Impact of Political and Fiscal (De)centralization By Alexeev, Michael; Weber, Shlomo
  2. Social Fragmentation, Public Goods and Elections: Evidence from China By Padro, Gerard; Qian, Nancy; Yao, Yang
  3. Urbanisation and Migration Externalities in China By Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Démurger, Sylvie; Li, Shi
  4. Task force: Gewerkschaften, Arbeitsmarktregulierung und Migration in China By von der Pütten, Jann Christoph (Ed.); Göbel, Christian (Ed.)
  5. Non-traded Factor Appreciation in China By Gordon Menzies; Xiaolin Xiao
  6. Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China By Carsten A Holz; Aaron Mehrotra
  7. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Exchange Prices: Evidence from USA Japan and China By Mondher bellalah; Olivier Levyne; Omar Masood
  8. Understanding Innovation in Production Networks in East Asia By Ganeshan Wignaraja
  9. The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China By Taylor, Alan M.
  10. Does co-integration and causal relationship exist between the non-stationary variables for Chinese bank’s profitability? Empirical evidence By Mondher bellalah; Olivier Levyne; Omar Masood
  11. Incidence and Environmental Effects of Distortionary Subsidies By Heutel, Garth; Kelly, David L.
  12. Income Concentration in China: What Role for Education? By Saccone Donatella
  13. Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun's law revisited By Ibragimov Marat; Jovlon Karimov; Elena Permyakova
  14. Towards an Efficient Use of R&D – Accounting for Heterogeneity in the OECD By Cullmann, Astrid; Zloczysti, Petra
  15. Chinese firms'entry to export markets : the role of foreign export spillovers By Mayneris, Florian; Poncet, Sandra
  16. Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy By Jan Frait; Zlatuse Komarkova
  17. The Outcome of Directed Lending in Belarus: Mitigating Recession or Dampening Long-Run Growth? By Kruk Dzmitry; Haiduk Kiryl
  18. Corruption and Financing of Political Parties - Case of Serbia By Vanja Bajovic; Savo Manojlovic
  19. Complementarity and Potentials of High Technology Trade, Technology and Skills Transfers between India-Russia By Pohit, Sanjib
  20. Don't trust anybody over 30: Youth unemployment and Okun's law in CEE countries By Hutengs, Oliver; Stadtmann, Georg

  1. By: Alexeev, Michael; Weber, Shlomo
    Abstract: The extent of political and fiscal centralization in Russia has experienced dramatic changes since the end of the Soviet era. The heavily centralized, both politically and economically, federal structures became dysfunctional and unstable until the introduction of the Budget and Tax Codes over the last decade induced a relative clarity to revenue assignments and expenditure and management responsibilities of different levels of government. While the creation of federal districts and the elimination of elections of regional governors in 2005 have brought a substantial rise of political centralization, the reforms had an ambiguous effect on fiscal centralization and fiscal independence of the regions, the estimation of which is addressed in this paper. We use an updated and extensive dataset and apply a novel estimation technique by evaluating the response of regional government’s expenditures to changes in the size of the GRP (gross regional product) and to changes in the region’s tax collections. While the results related to regional shares of tax revenues and expenditures are somewhat ambiguous, the examination of marginal fiscal incentives suggests an increase in fiscal centralization in Russia over the last decade. Our investigation also indicates that, contrary to Treisman’s (2000) conjecture, no decline in the variability of tax revenues had taken place in the last decade. We also show that the recent variability of GRP has been smaller than for tax revenues but greater than for budget expenditures, which stresses the effectiveness of budget equalization policies of the central government. Finally, we briefly addressed the issue of intra-regional fiscal relations, which is of crucial importance for political and economic progress of the country.
    Keywords: expenditures; intergovernmental fiscal relations; political centralization; Russian regions; tax revenues; transfers
    JEL: H71 H73 H77
    Date: 2013–02
  2. By: Padro, Gerard; Qian, Nancy; Yao, Yang
    Abstract: This study examines how the economic effects of elections in rural China depend on voter heterogeneity, for which we proxy with religious fractionalization. We first document religious composition and the introduction of village-level elections for a nearly nationally representative sample of over two hundred villages. Then, we examine the interaction effect of heterogeneity and the introduction of elections on village-government provision of public goods. The interaction effect is negative. We interpret this as evidence that voter heterogeneity constrains the potential benefits of elections for public goods provision.
    Keywords: Democracy; Fractionalization; Pre-Conditions; Religion; Voter Heterogeneity
    JEL: O1 P1
    Date: 2013–01
  3. By: Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Démurger, Sylvie; Li, Shi
    Abstract: We evaluate the role that cities play on individual productivity in China. First, we show that location explains a large share of nominal wage disparities. Second, even after controlling for individual and firms characteristics and instrumenting city characteristics, the estimated elasticity of wage with respect to employment density is about three times larger than in Western countries. Land area and industrial specialisation also play a significant role whereas the access to external markets does not. Therefore, large agglomeration economies prevail in China and they are more localised than in Western countries. Third, we find evidence of a large positive impact of the local share of migrants on local workers' wages. Overall, these results strongly support the productivity gains that can be expected from further migration and urbanisation in China.
    Keywords: agglomeration economies; China; migration; urban development; wage disparities
    JEL: J31 O18 O53 R12 R23
    Date: 2013–02
  4. By: von der Pütten, Jann Christoph (Ed.); Göbel, Christian (Ed.)
    Abstract: Die vorliegende Publikation untersucht die gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen am chinesischen Arbeitsmarkt. Sie analysiert die Funktion chinesischer Gewerkschaften und die Rolle von Tarifverhandlungen im Lohnfindungsprozess, aber auch die grundlegende Frage, ob Chinas Reservoir an billigen Arbeitskräften langsam versiegt. Einer genaueren Betrachtung wird auch die Situation der ca. 180 Millionen Wanderarbeiterinnen und Wanderarbeiter in China unterzogen. -- This publication traces current developments in the Chinese labor market. It analyses the function of Chinese trade unions and the role of collective bargaining for determining wage levels, and addresses the fundamental question if China is running out of cheap labour. The effect of recent legal changes on China's approximately 180 million migrant workers is also analysed in some detail, as are the specific challenges for female migrants.
    Keywords: China,Gewerkschaften,soziale Sicherung,Sozialversicherung,Wanderarbeiter,soziale Unruhe,Zivilgesellschaft,Gender,demografischer Wandel,Tarifverhandlungen,All-Chinesischer Gewerkschaftsbund,China,trade union,social security,social welfare,migrant workers,social unrest,civil society,gender,demographic change,collective bargaining,All-Chinese Federation of Trade Unions
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Gordon Menzies (Economics Discipline Group, University of Technology, Sydney); Xiaolin Xiao (Economics Discipline Group, University of Technology, Sydney)
    Abstract: The departure of a factor in excess supply in the non-traded sector leads to a real appreciation, in a setup that combines the canonical Lewis Model (Lewis, 1954, and Fei and Ranis, 1961, 1964) with a Balassa-Samuelson traded/non-traded dichotomy (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1996). China is a potential candidate for non-traded factor appreciation, since it has not completed its structural transformation. A transfer of rural labor to urban areas will appreciate the real exchange rate.
    Keywords: Non-traded factor appreciation; Lewis Dual-economy; China
    JEL: F21 F31 F41
    Date: 2012–09–01
  6. By: Carsten A Holz; Aaron Mehrotra
    Abstract: This study finds that the growth in labour costs in China is not passed through fully to final prices in China, neither in the tradable goods sector nor in the economy as a whole. This probably reflects the strong pressure on profit margins from a highly competitive environment, especially in manufactured goods. The potential implications of labour cost increases in China for global inflation pressures are also discussed.
    Keywords: labour costs, inflation, China, global economic slack, globalisation
    Date: 2013–04
  7. By: Mondher bellalah; Olivier Levyne; Omar Masood (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise; Institue Superieur de Commerce de Paris, ISC Paris; Royal Business School, University of East London)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the long run relationship between macroeconomic indicators of terms of trade, oil prices, rate of interest, money supply (M3), index of industrial production and stock exchange prices indices for the USA Japan and China by focusing on the global financial recession. This study examines whether the same model can explain USA, Japanese and Chinese stock markets, while yielding consistent factors loading. Using monthly time series data of the respective variables of the range 2005-1 to 2010-5 Autoregressive Distributive Lag ARDL co-integration approach used for data analysis. Our results vary from one country to another. An explanation of the difference in behavior between the three stock markets may lie as USA economy is most affected by financial crises, 2007 and Japanese economy slump after 1990, china is least affected economy by financial crises, 2007. In the context of recent global financial recession, no study has so far been traced which explains the causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock markets of USA, Japan and China. Our results are helpful for investors, national policy makers and corporate managers etc.
    Keywords: Macro-economic indicators, co-integration, index of industrial production, money supply.
    JEL: G10 G14 G21
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Ganeshan Wignaraja (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))
    Abstract: This paper explores the “black box†of innovation in the electronics production network in East Asia through a mapping exercise of technological capabilities and an econometric analysis of exporting in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Thailand, and the Philippines. Technology-based approaches to trade offer a plausible explanation for firm-level exporting behavior and complement the literature on production networks. The econometric results confirm the importance of foreign ownership and innovation in increasing the probability of exporting in electronics. Higher levels of skills, managers’ education, and capital also matter in the PRC as well as accumulated experience in Thailand. Furthermore, a technology index composed of technical functions performed by firms (to represent technological capabilities) emerges as a more robust indicator of innovation than the research and development (R&D) to sales ratio. Accordingly, technological effort in electronics in these countries mostly focuses on assimilating and using imported technologies rather than formal R&D by specialized engineers.
    Keywords: innovation, Production Networks, East Asia, technology index, Technological Capability, Foreign Ownership, Thailand, PRC, Philippines
    JEL: F23 O31 O32 L63 O57
    Date: 2013–03
  9. By: Taylor, Alan M.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments’ precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to increase. But the world then risks a third crisis of the global reserve system, another re-run of the Triffin paradox, with an ever-growing emerging-world insurance demand loaded onto a small group of ever more strained net debt suppliers. Two ways to avoid this outcome would entail either expanding the supply of credible reserve liquidity to include some large emerging-market providers, or finding ways to manage emerging-market risks so as to moderate the perceived need for insurance, and China would have to loom large in both solutions.
    Keywords: China; international reserves; precautionary saving; renminbi; reserve currency; Triffin paradox
    JEL: F01 F02 F33
    Date: 2013–01
  10. By: Mondher bellalah; Olivier Levyne; Omar Masood (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise; Institue Superieur de Commerce de Paris, ISC Paris; Royal Business School, University of East London)
    Abstract: This study aims to give the analysis of the determinants of banks’ profitability in the Kingdom of China over the period starting 2003. The paper investigates the co-integration and causal relationship between total assets (TA) and total equity (TE) of Saudi banks. The analysis employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen’s cointegration test, Granger causality test. Analyzing the cointegration and other tests on Saudi Arabian banking sector over the study period, the relationships between the two variables are examined. The empirical results have found strong evidence that the variables are co-integrated.
    Keywords: Banking, bank profitability, total assets, total equity, co-integration.
    JEL: E50 F30 F17 G01 G21
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Heutel, Garth (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Kelly, David L. (University of Miami)
    Abstract: Government policies that are not intended to address environmental concerns can nonetheless distort prices and affect firms' emissions. We present an analytical general equilibrium model to study the effect of distortionary subsidies on factor prices and on environmental outcomes. We model an output subsidy, a capital subsidy, relief from environmental regulation, and a direct cash subsidy. In exchange for receiving subsidies, firms must agree to a minimum level of labor employment. Each type of subsidy and the employment constraint create both output effects and substitution effects on input prices and emissions. We calibrate the model to the Chinese economy, where government involvement affects emissions from both state-owned enterprises and private firms. Variation in production substitution elasticities does not substantially affect input prices, but it does substantially affect emissions.
    Keywords: Pollution; China; Incidence; Perverse Subsidies
    JEL: H23 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2013–04–02
  12. By: Saccone Donatella (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The paper aims to analyze the relationship between income concentration and inequality in education in China for the period 1989-2006. We first estimate the association between individual attributes and income over time and, then, calculate the contribution of education and its distribution to income concentration. We find that education has become the bulk of income concentration and that the pace of equalizing reforms should be accelerated, since the improvements in terms of educational equality are at risk to be counterbalanced by the fast growth of its importance in determining income distribution
    Date: 2012–01
  13. By: Ibragimov Marat; Jovlon Karimov; Elena Permyakova
    Abstract: Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of the study is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and econometric methods. The paper further focuses on the analysis of the behavior of unemployment and Gross Domestic Product in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Ukraine and Uzbekistan in different periods of their economic development during 2000-2010. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The report provides the results and discussions on the practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons; as well as those on the value of the models for economic forecasting and policy decisions. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.
    JEL: C26 C51 C53 E23 J64
    Date: 2013–02–04
  14. By: Cullmann, Astrid; Zloczysti, Petra
    Abstract: Expenditures devoted to research and development (R&D) are scarce and thus need to be used as efficiently as possible given the financial constraints countries are facing. This paper assesses the relative efficiency of R&D expenditures for 26 OECD member countries and 2 non-member countries. As countries differ in their national innovation systems and states of economic development and industrialization, e.g. transition economies in Eastern Europe vs. Asian countries vs. Anglo-Saxon countries, the measurement of R&D efficiency needs to consider differences in the technology of knowledge production. The existing empirical literature on R&D efficiency mainly builds on a homogeneous technology frontier neglecting the importance to account for country-specific heterogeneity. This paper models technological differences in knowledge production among countries using a stochastic frontier model for panel data. Applying a latent class model for SFA, we find empirical evidence for two technological classes, a `capital-intensive' and a `labor-intensive' one. Assuming a common knowledge production technology, as has been done so far in the empirical literature, thus results in biased efficiency estimates.
    Keywords: innovation; knowledge production function; latent classes; R&D efficiency; stochastic frontier analysis
    JEL: C40 O31 O57
    Date: 2013–02
  15. By: Mayneris, Florian; Poncet, Sandra
    Abstract: In this paper, the effect of proximity to multinational exporters on the creation of new export linkages (the extensive margin of trade) is debated. Using panel data from Chinese customs for 1997-2007, the capacity for Chinese domestic firms to begin exporting new varieties to new markets is shown to respond positively to the export activity of neighboring foreign firms. These spillovers are shown to be product and country specific. This conclusion is robust to fixed effects and instrumental variable specifications that control for both supply and demand shocks that could bias the estimations. The impact is sizable. The marginal impact of product-country-specific foreign export spillovers is five times as large as the effect of a 10 percent increase in the demand for the product in the destination country. Foreign export spillovers are also shown to be primarily limited to ordinary trade activities. Overall, our findings suggest that even for a country with an important cost-advantage such as China, there is room for initiatives from policy-makers that will diffuse best practices regarding export experience among exporters.
    Keywords: Tax Law,Economic Theory&Research,Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation,Water Resources Assessment,Water Conservation
    Date: 2013–04–01
  16. By: Jan Frait; Zlatuse Komarkova
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the way the macroprudential policy framework in a small EU economy should be designed. With reference to the experience of the Czech Republic's financial system and the Czech National Bank it provides definitions of financial stability and macroprudential policy as well as of their objectives. It then explains how systemic risk evolves over the financial cycle and outlines approaches to preventing systemic risk in the accumulation stage of the cycle and subsequently mitigating the materialisation of such risk if prevention fails. The paper argues that for the establishment of a macroprudential policy framework in a bank-based economy with a relatively simple and small financial sector, the phenomenon of procyclical behaviour has to stand centrally. Correspondingly, a macroprudential authority in such an economy has to look primarily at cyclically induced sources of systemic risks. Nevertheless, structural sources of systemic risks and associated instruments are discussed as well. The arguments for the recommended arrangements are supported by empirical investigations into the extent of procyclicality in European banks' lending behaviour and the contribution of the regulatory and accounting framework to it.
    Keywords: Financial stability, macroprudential policy, monetary policy, procyclicality, systemic risk.
    JEL: E52 E58 E61 G12 G18
    Date: 2012–12
  17. By: Kruk Dzmitry; Haiduk Kiryl
    Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of directed lending upon total factor productivity and GDP growth in Belarus over the period of 2000–2012. In theory, directed lending can enhance physical capital accumulation and make the access to credit easier, but empirical studies often show that it leads to unproductive hoarding of capital and financing of lower-yielding projects. This study seeks to explore which of these effects has dominated in the Belarusian economy during a last decade. We find that expansion of directed lending has negatively affected TFP dynamics and thus negatively contributed to the rates of economic growth. . However, the detected negative impact of directed lending on total factor productivity was enfeebled by the expansion of market loans. In the future, this link between directed and market loans could cease to exit due to liquidity constrained commercial banks face. If continued, directed lending may cause a more severe negative impact on TFP, and consequently undermine long-run economic growth.
    JEL: C32 O16 P34
    Date: 2013–02–04
  18. By: Vanja Bajovic (University of Belgrade Law School); Savo Manojlovic (Constitutional Court of Serbia)
    Abstract: This paper focused on political corruption in Serbia in area of political party funding. In the first chapter are described various forms of political corruption regarding party funding and their peculiarities in post-transitional countries. Legislative, institutional and social anti corruption mechanisms are analyzed after that. The second chapter is dedicated to legislative framework, with particular focus on Serbian Law on financing of political activities and its anti corruptive provisions. Institutional mechanisms that include monitoring agency, financial transparency and judiciary independence are analyzed in the third chapter. Finally, monitoring by free press, informed public and other social conditions are discussed in the end. The paper is illustrated by numerous cases from Serbian practice. It critically examines implementation of quoted mechanisms and gives some legislative suggestions for their improvement.
    Keywords: political corruption, political parties, funding of political parties, Serbia
    Date: 2013–02
  19. By: Pohit, Sanjib
    Abstract: This paper examines complementarities and potentialities in merchandise trade in general and high technology trade in particular between India and Russia. In this context, we have also looked at the complementarities for bilateral transfer of investment, technology and skills. The analysis shows that bilateral trade flow is small even though trade complementarities in the segment of high technology as well as in merchandise trade in general exist. Inefficient trade logistics networks, absence of mutual recognition of standard, lack of bilateral technology and skill transfer and low level of connectivity between private sectors of either country are some of the factors responsible for not realising the potentials of trade. This is further confirmed by our illustrative CGE modelling exercise which suggest about half a percentage points increase in real GNP in either country if bilateral tariff barriers are abolished. In this context, governments of Russia and India need to play pro-active role to raise the level of economic engagement
    Keywords: India, Russia, High Technology, CGE model, Trade
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2012
  20. By: Hutengs, Oliver; Stadtmann, Georg
    Abstract: In recent years youth unemployment rates across Europe soared, causing the European Commission to take actions through initiatives to counter this development. This article examines youth unemployment development in selected CEE countries and compares them to the EU 15. We use Okun's law and estimate age and country specific Okun coefficients for five different age cohorts. Our results show that young people display much higher Okun coefficients than their older peers, thus confirming that young people are more prone to macroeconomic shocks. This result might be a justification for additional governmental intervention and active labour market policies favouring young people. --
    Keywords: Okun's law,labor market,youth unemployment
    JEL: E24 F50 C23
    Date: 2013

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