nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2012‒09‒16
nine papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation By Mauricio Soto; Frank Eich; Charleen Gust
  2. China as a Developmental State By John Knight
  3. Energy endowments, barriers to trade and industry location in Chinese provinces By Irina Hotz
  4. Examining the role of monetary aggregates in China By Sánchez-Fung, José R.
  5. Markups and Agglomeration: Price Competition versus Externalities By Liqiu Zhao
  6. Network-based analyses of Hungarian cash supply By Anikó Bódi-Schubert; Zsolt Ábrahám; Erika Lajkó
  7. The effect of market access on the labor market: Evidence from German reunification By Ulrich Zierahn
  8. What Drives the POLONIA Spread in Poland? By Yinqiu Lu
  9. Gens una sumus? – Or Does Political Ideology Affect Experts’ Aesthetic Judgement of Chess Games By Björn Frank; Stefan Krabel

  1. By: Mauricio Soto; Frank Eich; Charleen Gust
    Abstract: Pension reform is a key policy challenge in Russia. This paper examines how pension spending could increase in Russia in the absence of reforms, quantifies the impact of some recent proposals, and suggests some alternatives that would ensure public pension benefits - relative to wages - not fall from current levels while containing spending.
    Keywords: Aging , Pension reforms , Pensions , Population , Russian Federation ,
    Date: 2012–08–10
  2. By: John Knight
    Abstract: The paper examines the notion of a ‘developmental state’ and shows that China possesses the characteristics of a developmental state. It explains the political economy which generated such a state in China and in some other economies. It analyses the methods and mechanisms that were introduced to create a developmental state, in particular the incentive structures that the leadership used to solve the principal-agent problem. These include personnel policies, fiscal decentralization, and patronage relationships. That leads to a review of its successes, limitations and adverse consequences, and to the question: can China’s developmental state be sustained? Conclusions are drawn for both China and other developing countries.
    Keywords: China; Developmental state; Economic growth; Incentives; Principal-agent problem; Virtuous circle
    JEL: B52 E02 O10 O53 P16 P26
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Irina Hotz (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the determinants of manufacturing activity across Chinese provinces with emphasis on the important role of energy endowments on the location of industries. The data set consists of a panel of 28 Chinese provinces and 13 manufacturing industries for the years 1994, 1997 and 1999-2009. A model of production location is estimated, including comparative advantage and economic geography dynamics. The effects of trade impediments and changes in economic policies on the distribution of economic activity are also considered. Results validate energy as a driving force of industry location. They further show that provincial protectionism poses a problem to market mechanisms, but indicate an increase of concentration of economic activity through time.
    Keywords: China, factor endowments, industry location, energy, externalities, protectionism
    JEL: F18 P2 R14
    Date: 2012–09
  4. By: Sánchez-Fung, José R. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper examines the relative significance of monetary aggregates and interest rates in China using the information approach to monetary policy. The analysis reveals the superiority and robustness of a narrow monetary aggregate in contributing information about future movements in inflation.
    Keywords: monetary policy and inflation; information approach; monetary aggregates; interest rates; China
    JEL: E52
    Date: 2012–09–03
  5. By: Liqiu Zhao
    Abstract: Agglomeration can affect markups through two potential channels: agglom- erated regions toughen competition (price competition effect) and firms are more productive on average in agglomerated regions (agglomeration exter- nalities and firm selection effect). However, the literature is inconclusive on which force dominates. This paper models these two channels by in- troducing agglomeration economies to the model of Melitz and Ottaviano (2008). Under parameters from the empirical studies, I demonstrate that the price competition effect tends to dominate the others, i.e., firms in more agglomerated regions charge lower markups. Using a unique Chinese firm- level data from 2002 to 2004, I investigate the effect of spatial agglomeration on markups of firms. By addressing the potential endogeneity problems us- ing instrumental-variable method, I find that in China an increase in the number of own-industry firms in the same region has a negative causal ef- fect on markups of firms and a positive effect on productivity. But firms in agglomerated regions have higher output and profit.
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Anikó Bódi-Schubert (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary)); Zsolt Ábrahám (Corvinus University of Budapest); Erika Lajkó (Corvinus University of Budapest)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on analyzing the cash supply network, in which the central bank – as an institutional member – acts as a key influencing node/party. By analyzing the case study example of the Hungarian cash supply, the paper introduces the different kinds of special network patterns that can appear in cases, when the network exists in an institutional (B2A) context and the institutional network member has a special regulatory role in influencing the manner of other business network members. The research findings are based on the application of the case study method. One case will be analyzed that focuses on introducing the main features of the Hungarian cash supply network and the behavior of its key members [central bank (the institutional one); cash logistic providers, commercial banks, post office, retail chains (business ones)]. From managerial point, the analyzed case provides evidences that influencing and interplaying network effects are valid for an institutional member as well, even if it has “special rights” to influence the basic network processes and structure.
    Keywords: network, institutional-business network, network members, cash, cash supply
    JEL: M19 M11 L14
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Ulrich Zierahn (University of Kassel/ HWWI)
    Abstract: The New Economic Geography predicts a positive effect of market access on wages, as represented by the wage equation. Several studies provide empirical evidence in favor of the wage equation. However, a key problem is the endogeneity of market access: it is challenging to identify the causal effects of market access on wages, since market access itself depends on wages. Whereas most approaches rely on instrumental variables and strong assumptions on exogeneity, the present analysis relies on German reunification as an exogenous variation of market access in order to identify the effects. Since the market access shock due to reunfication was accompanied by a labor supply shock due to migrants and commuters from eastern Germany, the effects on wages, employment and unemployment are analyzed. The results provide evidence in favor of a labor demand shock due to the increase in market access and a labor supply shock due to migrants and commuters from eastern Germany.
    Keywords: New Economic Geography, wage equation, market access, natural experiment, differences-in-differences
    JEL: F15 R12 R23
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Yinqiu Lu
    Abstract: Since the start of the 2008 - 09 financial crisis, the Polish Overnight Index Average (POLONIA) has persistently been below the policy rate, suggesting a limited influence of the NBP’s open market operations on the short-term interbank rate. In this regard, this paper analyzes the behavior of the POLONIA spread and explore several potential factors that could influence the spread. An empirical analysis confirms that the negative POLONIA spread is related to a few factors, which include the existence of the structural liquidity in the banking system; bank’s unwillingness to lock up liquidity in the NBP bills; the frontloading of banks’ fulfillment of the reserve requirements; and external market sentiment. The analysis also shows the effectiveness of the NBP’s responses to the financial crisis and structural liquidity surplus.
    Date: 2012–08–29
  9. By: Björn Frank (University of Kassel); Stefan Krabel (University of Kassel)
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence on biased voting by jurors from the Warsaw Pact countries who ranked high-level chess games. The roots of this bias are probably ideological, as there were no formal benefits for biased voting. Furthermore, this bias is observed only for jurors from Eastern countries, not for those from the West (NATO), and most interestingly, it disappears after the collapse of the Warsaw pact in 1989.
    Date: 2012

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