nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2012‒08‒23
sixty-five papers chosen by
J. David Brown
IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor)

  1. Wage setting in Hungary: evidence from a firm survey By Gábor Kézdi; István Kónya
  2. Management quality, firm performance and market pressure in Russia By Guido Friebel; Helena Schweiger
  3. Impact of WTO accession and the customs union on the bound and applied tariff rates of the Russian federation By Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Tarr, David G.
  4. Mothers and Daughters: Heterogeneity of German direct investments in the Czech Republic. Evidence from the IAB-ReLOC survey By Münich, Daniel; Srholec, Martin; Moritz, Michael; Schäffler, Johannes
  5. Globalization, Innovation and Productivity in Manufacturing Firms: A Study of Four Sectors of China By Jacques MAIRESSE; Pierre MOHNEN; Yanyun ZHAO; Feng ZHEN
  6. Aid Motivation in Early and Mature Partnerships: Is there a difference? By Olofsgård, Anders; Perrotta, Maria; Frot, Emmanuel
  7. The Clan and the City: Sustaining Cooperation in China and Europe By Greif, Avner; Tabellini, Guido
  8. International Stock Market Integration : Central and South Eastern Europe Compared By Roman Horvath; Dragan Petrovski
  9. Public Sector Status and Privatization Process By Alexander Radygin; Georgy Malginov
  10. Effects of the debt crisis on the EU-China relations By Mező, Júlia; Udvari, Beáta
  11. Intra-industry Trade between the European Union and Western Balkans: A Close-up By Valerija Botric
  12. EU-China Economic Relations: Interactions and Barriers By Lu, Zheng
  13. Polarisation et déclin de la classe moyenne : le cas de la Russie. By Jérôme Lefranc
  14. Market and Non-Market Monetary Policy Tools in a Calibrated DSGE Model for Mainland China By Michael Funke; Michael Paetz; Qianying Chen,
  15. Comparative Advantage, Scale Economy and Regional Specialization:An Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Industries By Lu, Zheng; Deng, Xiang
  16. China's monetary sterilization and it's economical relationship with the European Union By Gábor, Tamás
  17. Demographic pressures and the sustainability of social security in Emerging Europe and Central Asia By Jaromir Cekota; Claudia Trentini
  18. Renminbi Internationalisation: A Primer By He, Dong
  19. PEER EFFECTS, RISK POOLING, AND STATUS SEEKING: What Explains Gift Spending Escalation in Rural China? By Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo; Kanbur, Ravi
  20. The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China By Michael Funke; Xi Chen
  21. Socio-political Context in Russia in 2011 By Vladimir Mau
  22. New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy in China By Petreski, Marjan; Jovanovic, Branimir
  23. DO PUBLIC WORK SCHEMES DETER OR ENCOURAGE OUTMIGRATION? Empirical Evidence from China By Chau, Nancy H.; Kanbur, Ravi; Qin, Yu
  24. Danish Farmers and Investors: An analysis of reasons and motivations for increasing cross-border agricultural activities in Central and Eastern European countries By Luljeta Hajderllari; Kostas Karantininis; Ole Bonnichsen
  25. Unattended but not undernourished: young children left behind in rural China: By de Brauw, Alan; Mu, Ren
  26. Rising Regional Inequality in China: Fact or Artefact? By Chao Li; John Gibson
  27. A new regional classification for mobile telecommunications diffusion policy in China: Using the innovation and imitation coefficients By Lima, Jinyang; Nama, Changi; Kimb, Seongcheol
  28. Do Exporting Firms in the People’s Republic of China Innovate? By Ganeshan Wignaraja
  29. The economic crisis, an opportunity for retailers in Romania By Dabija, Dan-Cristian; Alt, Monika Anetta
  30. Implementation of the acquis communautaire in EU candidate countries: A reappraisal By Jano, Dorian
  31. Making sense of competitiveness indicators in south-eastern Europe By Peter Sanfey; Simone Zeh
  32. Changing central bank transparency in Central and Eastern Europe during the financial crisis By Csávás, Csaba; Erhart, Szilárd; Naszódi, Anna; Pintér, Klára
  33. The Connection between Imported Intermediate Inputs and Exports: Evidence from Chinese Firms By Ling Feng; Zhiyuan Li; Deborah L. Swenson
  34. Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Subnational Finances By Vladimir Nazarov; Arseny Mamedov; Andrey Alaev
  35. Who gains and who loses from China’s growth? By Angela Cheptea
  36. Why Do People Save in Cash? Distrust, Memories of Banking Crises, Weak Institutions and Dollarization By Helmut Stix
  37. Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan By Yongding Yu
  38. Wirtschaftspolitik in China und Indien im Vergleich By Winkel, Axel
  39. Evaluating the possible impact of pension reforms on future living standards in Europe By Aaron George Grech
  40. Russia’s 2011 Monetary Policy By Pavel Trunin; Natalia Luksha
  42. „Home high above and home deep down below?” Lending in Hungary By Banai, Ádám; Király, Júlia; Nagy, Márton
  43. Risks of the indebtedness of the Hungarian local government sector from a financial stability point of view By Aczél, Ákos; Homolya, Dániel
  44. Heterogeneous Ambiguity Attitudes: A Field Experiment Among Small-Scale Stock Investors in China. Review of Economic Design By Elizabeth Potamites; Bei Zhang
  45. Dismantling a weak state: The crisis as a pretext for even more neoliberalism in the Romanian economic policies By Cărămidariu, Dan
  46. The People’s Republic of China’s High-Tech Exports : Myth and Reality By Yuqing Xing
  47. Surveying Romanian Migrants in Italy Before and After the EU Accession: Migration Plans, Labour Market Features and Social Inclusion By Isilda Mara
  48. Household Composition and Food Away From Home Expenditures in Urban China By Haiyan, Liu; Thomas, Wahl; James, Seale; Junfei, Bai
  49. FDI Learning from Neighbors’ Export Activities: Evidence from Exporters’ Survival By Ana Fernandes; Heiwai Tang
  50. The Application of the Multi-Level Investment Flows Monitoring Model (MIF-Model) on china and ASEAN By Ruiz estrada , M.A.
  51. Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy By Roman Horváth; Kateřina Šmídková; Jan Zápal
  52. Russia’s Emerging ESCO Market: Prospects and Barriers for Energy Efficiency Investments By Garbuzova , Maria; Madlener, Reinhard
  53. Public Expenditure in the Slovak Republic: Composition and Technical Efficiency By Francesco Grigoli
  54. Aligning climate change mitigation and agricultural policies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia By Larson, Donald F.; Dinar, Ariel; Blankespoor, Brian
  55. Broadband internet access availability in Russia: Regional aspects By Petukhova, Svetlana; Strepetova, Margarita
  56. Are natural resources cursed ? an investigation of the dynamic effects of resource dependence on institutional quality By De Rosa, Donato; Iootty, Mariana
  58. Hungarian higher education and its international comparison By Vincze, Szilvia; Harsányi, Gergely
  59. Inflation and Income Inequality: Is Food Inflation Different? By James P Walsh; Jiangyan Yu
  60. Poverty and distributional impact of gas price hike in Armenia By Ersado, Lire
  61. Toolkit for stimulating corporate lending By Fábián, Gergely; Fáykiss, Péter; Szigel, Gábor
  62. Need for rethinking of the Hungarian fiscal and monetary policy By Kerényi, Ádám
  63. Debt trap - monetary indicators of Hungary's indebtedness By Sági, Judit
  64. Current challenges and possibilities to control state’s role in Hungary By Milicz, Ákos
  65. Challenges for Romania’s employment policy in the Real Economy By Marinela, Simuţ Ramona; Lavinia, Delcea (Săutiuţ)

  1. By: Gábor Kézdi (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary), Central European University, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences); István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))
    Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on the flexibility of the Hungarian labor market, with special emphasis on wages. The results are based on a new survey on wage setting among Hungarian firms. The survey is part of the Eurosystem Wage Dynamics Network (WDN), and it is a harmonized questionnaire administered in 17 countries in Europe, including almost all Euro Area countries as well as five Central and Eastern European countries. The survey results show that the Hungarian labor market, while institutionally flexible, appears to be surprisingly rigid. The survey evidence points to low turnover and possibly more rigid wages than previously thought.
    Keywords: wage setting, survey, wage dynamics network, Hungary
    JEL: C83 J01 J30
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Guido Friebel (Goethe University Frankfurt); Helena Schweiger (EBRD)
    Abstract: We investigate whether management quality explains firm performance in Russia. We find that it explains relatively little in terms of firm performance, but it does explain some of the differences between firms in Russia’s Far East and the rest of Russia. While management practices may not yet affect firm performance in a measurable way, they may do so in the future. This conjecture motivates us to look at the determinants of firms’ adoption of good management practices. We find that market pressure, both in the product and the labour market, has some impact on adoption of management practices, in particular in the Far East. It thus appears that the economy in Russia’s Far East may function according to different rules than in the rest of Russia, as market forces seem to be stronger there because the Far East is more exposed to foreign competition than the rest of Russia.
    Keywords: transition, firm restructuring, open economies
    JEL: L2 M2 P2
    Date: 2012–04
  3. By: Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Tarr, David G.
    Abstract: After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The analysis uses trade data at the ten digit level, which allows the first accurate assessment of the impact of these policy changes. It finds that World Trade Organization commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. After all commitments are implemented, tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent on an un-weighted average basis, or from 13.0 percent to 5.8 percent on a weighted average basis. The average"bound"tariff rate of Russia under its World Trade Organization commitments will be 8.6 percent, that is, 0.7 percentage points higher than the applied tariffs. Russia's commitments represent significant tariff liberalization, but compared with other countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organization, the commitments of the Russian Federation are not unusual, especially when compared with the Transition countries.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Trade Policy,Free Trade,Export Competitiveness,Debt Markets
    Date: 2012–08–01
  4. By: Münich, Daniel; Srholec, Martin; Moritz, Michael (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schäffler, Johannes (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "The aim of the paper is to assess the heterogeneity of German affiliates in the Czech Republic and their mother companies in Germany. Applying cluster analysis to firm-level data from the unique IAB-ReLOC survey, we identify four main groups of firms that partition the sample by broad sectoral lines and technological intensity of their operation. More specifically, the principal clusters can be interpreted as: I) High-tech industrial firms; II) Low-tech industrial firms; III) High-tech service providers; and IV) Low-tech service providers. The classification is examined more closely by location, ownership and industry of the firms and in the framework of a probit model. The main result is that there is a significant technological gap between the mothers and their cross-border daughters in industry that cannot be found in the service sector. From this follow implications for technological upgrading on both sides of the border, which are discussed in the concluding section of the paper." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Auslandsinvestitionen, multinationale Unternehmen, sektorale Verteilung, Wirtschaftszweige, Heterogenität, Herkunftsland, Technologietransfer, Wissenstransfer, Tschechische Republik, Bundesrepublik Deutschland
    JEL: D21 L16 F23 O23
    Date: 2012–07–25
  5. By: Jacques MAIRESSE (Jacques MAIRESSE INSEE-CREST (France), UNU-MERIT (Netherlands), and NBER (USA)); Pierre MOHNEN (Pierre MOHNEN UNU-MERIT (Netherlands), and Maastricht University); Yanyun ZHAO (Yanyun ZHAO Renmin University of China); Feng ZHEN (Feng ZHEN Bank of China, and Chinese Academy of Social Science)
    Abstract: This paper investigates relationships between innovation input, innovation output and labor productivity in China for four major manufacturing sectors; textiles, wearing apparel, transport equipment and electronic equipment. It uses a large sample of firm level micro data and a structural model in the estimation. The data from 2005 to 2006 is estimated, and results of all the sectors show positive effects from innovation input to output, and then to firm performance. Globalization has various impacts on innovation, through exports. It has a positive effect on both the decision to carry out R&D, and intensity of R&D input in sectors with competitive advantage, such as textiles and transport equipment, but not in sectors with high levels of overseas capital control, such as electronic equipment and wearing apparel. Ownership reveals the same story in different sectors, namely that foreign firms tend to do less in innovation input and output, but they do have higher level of productivity. Moreover, market share, subsidy, firm size and other characters of firms are involved in the estimation, which explains significant difference in engaging in innovation and production. Thus, in all the sectors, market share improves R&D input, continuous R&D input and exports improve new products output. Subsidy sustains R&D input, but not innovation output.
    Date: 2012–06–01
  6. By: Olofsgård, Anders (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics); Perrotta, Maria (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics); Frot, Emmanuel (Microeconomix)
    Abstract: We argue that the nature of aid flows early on in a bilateral partnership may be different from that at a later stage. Commercial and strategic interests may carry particular weight after a significant regime change when new relationships need to be established, whereas development concerns come to carry greater weight as the relationship matures. We test this argument using the natural experiment of the break-up of communism in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. By looking at the allocation of aid across recipients, how that allocation has changed over time, and the urgency by which donors entered certain markets, we get a sense of the donors' changing priorities. We find that trade flows and geographical proximity lead to more aid during the early period, 1990-95, but not after that. On the other hand, political openness and natural disasters have no effect in the early going but are correlated with more aid in the later time period. We also find that donors are in more urgency to enter into countries with higher per capita incomes and with which they trade, but they also prioritize more democratic countries in this respect. Our results hold up to a thorough sensitivity analysis, including using a gravity model to instrument for bilateral trade flows. Our findings may have implications for what to expect about partnerships, and the role of aid, emerging between Western donors and new regimes put in place by the Arab Spring.
    Keywords: Foreign aid; aid allocation; transition countries
    JEL: C26 F35 P30
    Date: 2012–07–13
  7. By: Greif, Avner; Tabellini, Guido
    Abstract: Over the last millennium, the clan and the city have been the locus of cooperation in China and Europe respectively. This paper examines - analytically, historically, and empirically - the cultural, social, and institutional co-evolution that led to this bifurcation. We highlight that groups with which individuals identify are basic units of cooperation. Such groups impact institutional development because intra-group moral commitment reduces enforcement cost implying a comparative advantage in pursuing collective actions. Moral groups perpetuate due to positive feedbacks between morality, institutions, and the implied pattern of cooperation.
    Keywords: China; Europe; Institutions; Public goods; Values
    JEL: N00 O10 O50 P51 Z10
    Date: 2012–07
  8. By: Roman Horvath (Charles University, Prague and IOS, Regensburg); Dragan Petrovski
    Abstract: We examine the international stock market comovements between Western Europe vis-à-vis Central (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and South Eastern Europe (Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia) using multivariate GARCH models in 2006–2011. Comparing these two groups, we find that the degree of comovements is much higher for Central Europe. The correlation of South Eastern European stock markets with developed markets is essentially zero. The exemption to this regularity is Croatia with its stock market displaying a greater degree of integration towards Western Europe recently, but still below the levels typical for Central Europe. All stock markets fall strongly at the beginning of the global financial crisis and we do not find that the crisis altered the degree of stock market integration between this group of countries.
    Keywords: stock market comovements, Central and South Eastern Europe, GARCH
    JEL: C22 C32 G15
    Date: 2012–07
  9. By: Alexander Radygin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Georgy Malginov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with public sector and privatization process in Russia. The Authors analyze public sector share in Russian economy, privatization process, updates of privatization laws, corporate governance issues, state participation in the economy and structural policy, budget effect of the state property policy between 2000 and 2011
    Keywords: public sector of the economy, privatization, Russian economy, corporate governance
    Date: 2012
  10. By: Mező, Júlia; Udvari, Beáta
    Abstract: The economic (debt) crisis has become serious in the EU and in the Eurozone especially in the last few months. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was created as an instrument to handle this situation. But the financial contributions of the EU Member States seem not to be enough and China appears as a potential contributor. It is often cited that China offered Portugal and Spain in March 2011 to support their crisis management. However, recently, there are attempts from the side of the EU to convince China take part in the EFSF. Thus the question raised often in Europe is the following: Will China contribute to the EFSF? If yes, what conditions will the country raise? What are the arguments of the Chinese capital both in China and the EU? Consequently, our research is focusing on the impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on the new relations between the European Union and China. China’s enormous reserves enable the Asian financial assistance to European countries in crisis management but there are a number of questions related to this. The main findings of this study are that China can benefit from its European crisis management from many aspects, as the EU is the largest market for the Chinese products. Furthermore, reserve currency diversification and political considerations cannot be neglected, either. But the assistance may have serious risks for China: not only the expected return on investment is at a stake, but internal social and political tensions can emerge from helping the Europeans who still live in significantly higher wealth than most of the Chinese people. Adopting Chinese capital raises questions for the European Union, as well. China may impose such terms by which the EU may become vulnerable and get into a dependent position, then presumably it will be difficult to solve the cooperation.
    Keywords: European Union; debt crisis; China; crisis management
    JEL: F50 H1 G01
    Date: 2012
  11. By: Valerija Botric (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)
    Abstract: After the collapse of socialism, ex-centrally planned economies underwent the transition process towards the market economy with more or less success. The now so-called Western Balkans region was additionally burdened by the war, which disrupted previously existing trading routes, contributed to the delay in the transition process and increased the gap not only between them and more advance market economies, but also other transition economies in the region. This has significantly influenced the speed of the EU integration processes of these countries. The accession and participation on the common EU market bring additional challenges to these rather non-competitive economies. What comes into perspective when having in mind the integration prospects, is the evolution of trade between these countries and EU. Trade patterns are used as one of the indicators of whether we should look for integrating forces between EU countries and Western Balkan countries. The countries included in the analysis are: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro. For each country in the sample, the intra-industry trade (IIT) with new and old EU member states is analyzed in total, along with horizontal and vertical trade. The analysis is performed on a 4-digit level of Combined Nomenclature (CN).
    Keywords: Western Balkans, trade, intra-industry trade (IIT), vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT), horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT)
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2012–07
  12. By: Lu, Zheng
    Abstract: EU-China economic interactions became more and more frequent in the past decades, nowadays EU and China are main trade partner for each other. This paper analyzed EU-China economic interactions from three dimensions: bilateral governmental interactions, trade and investment flows as well as barriers to trade and investment. Findings show that EU-China close relationship is particularly based on goods trade especially on intra-industrial trade of manufacturing industrial products, and trade imbalance is arising from trade in Machinery and Transport Equipment and Other Manufactured Goods (e.g., Clothing and clothing accessories); This paper also found that there exist a myriad of trade and investment barriers to EU-China interactions, including both tariff and non-tariff obstacles. Therefore, this paper argued that if EU and China want to handle the trade imbalance efficiently, they must improve composition of trade in goods, while essentially, it requires lessening or eliminating EU-China trade barriers which hampered trade composition improvement.
    Keywords: EU-China Relations; Trade; Trade Barriers; FDI
    JEL: F13 F59
    Date: 2012–05–10
  13. By: Jérôme Lefranc (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This article contributes to the analysis of Russian income polarization. Its aim is to assess the evolution of the middle class in Russia and to check whether governmental redistribution factors have affected its evolution during the last two decades. We apply two indices of bi-polarization and group polarization to household income data, to analyze the evolution of the middle class and polarization in Russia. The empirical investigations conducted as part of this research are based on the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data from 1995 to 2010. During the first period, which is characterized by a increasing income inequality, we find that the middle class declined and income polarization increased, indicating the constitution of identified groups in lower and upper income ranges. In the second one, where the Russian economy suffered from the international crisis, we find that the middle class rose and polarization decreased. The level of income polarization is as high in rural areas as it is in urban areas, suggesting that the risk of social tensions exists in both areas. The results of this study confirm the effectiveness of gouvernmental redistributive mechanism to decrease polarization significantly.
    Keywords: Polarization, income redistribution, social classes, Russia.
    JEL: D31 D63
    Date: 2012–06
  14. By: Michael Funke; Michael Paetz; Qianying Chen,
    Abstract: Monetary policy in mainland China differs from conventional central bank- ing in several respects. The central bank regulates retail lending and deposit rates, influences the credit supply via window guidance, and, in recent years has even used the required reserve ratio as a tool for fine-tuning monetary pol- icy. This paper develops a New Keynesian DSGE model to captures China’s unconventional monetary policy toolkit. We find that credit quotas are impor- tant as the interest-rate corridor distorts the efficient reactions of the economy. Moreover, for China’s central bankers the choice of a particular monetary pol- icy tool or a the appropriate combination of instruments depends on the source of the shock.
    Keywords: DSGE models, monetary policy, China, macroprudential policy
    JEL: E42 E52 E58
    Date: 2012–07
  15. By: Lu, Zheng; Deng, Xiang
    Abstract: Current empirical studies on regional specialization mainly focused on measurement of China’s overall regional specialization level, while determinants of industrial geographical distribution, namely the regional specialization pattern, are just paid few attentions. This paper analyzed the regional specialization pattern empirically by employing statistical data of China two-digit industries from 1987 to 2007 through estimating a model which takes comparative advantage and scale economy as driven factors of industrial geographical concentration. Conclusions show that the overall regional specialization of Chinese industries increased between 1987 and 2007, however, it decreased obviously in 1990s. And, scale economy rather than comparative advantage arising from production cost is a long-run factor of China’s industrial geographical distribution.
    Keywords: Comparative Advantage Scale Economy Regional Specialization China
    JEL: R30 R12
    Date: 2012–05–20
  16. By: Gábor, Tamás
    Abstract: The author examines China’s monetary policy in the light of the sterilization process of the excess liquidity caused by the permanent foreign exchange rate intervention. The tools of the neutralization of the monetary oversupply, its effectiveness and its costs are also investigated. With the help of Two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression method it is demonstrated that the sterilization process of the yuan has been almost a total success on the level of the monetary base, and has been partially effective on the level of the M2 supply in the past 15 years. With a cost-benefit analysis it is highlighted that the practice of the monetary sterilization – which is thought to be loss-making in the literature – has been a profitable operation of the central bank up to date. After the demonstration of the monetary sterilization, the economic relationship between China and the European Union is investigated. It is pointed out that China’s role as a global importer and a global investor has been significantly appreciated. Thanks to China’s active economic presence in the European market during the crisis, the recession of the European economies were probably much moderate.
    Keywords: China monetary sterilization; 2SLS; European Union; crisis
    JEL: G15 E52 E44
    Date: 2012
  17. By: Jaromir Cekota (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe); Claudia Trentini (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term effects of population ageing in a number of ECE emerging market economies. The latest revision of the UN World Population Prospects implies that all of the countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) and South-Eastern Europe (SEE) will experience population ageing over the period 2010-2050. In most of them, the ageing process will be associated with rising dependency ratios as the share of the working-age groups in the total population shrinks. In these economies, the combination of an ageing and declining population is likely to reduce the effective labor supply, threatening to undermine the sustainability of their public pension and health systems. The analysis of available demographic and economic data confirms the severity of the demographic crisis' consequences for fiscal sustainability. Further, the results provide compelling evidence on the necessity for most of the countries in the region to undergo wide reaching policy reforms with a particular focus on pension systems and labor markets. Ageing is one of the significant cost factors, but not the only one, that will impact health spending in SEE and EECCA countries. The public health sector needs to be reformed with a view to increasing its efficiency.
    Keywords: aeging, social security, health, welfare, labor force, transition
    JEL: H55 H51 I3 J11 P36
    Date: 2012–07
  18. By: He, Dong
    Abstract: This paper provides a succinct introduction to the internationalisation of the renminbi, a subject of increasing importance in the economics of China. It attempts to shed light on the following questions: Why do non-Chinese residents have incentives to hold renminbi-denominated assets and liabilities? How do non-Chinese residents acquire renminbi-denominated assets and liabilities? Does this not require convertibility of the renminbi under the capital account of the balance of payments? What are the roles of official policies and market forces in driving the process of renminbi internationalisation?
    Keywords: renminbi; currency internationalisation
    JEL: E58 E42 F33
    Date: 2012–07–31
  19. By: Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo; Kanbur, Ravi
    Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics, Public Economics,
    Date: 2012–01
  20. By: Michael Funke; Xi Chen
    Abstract: This paper accounts for China?s economic growth since 1980 in a uni-fied endogenous growth model in which a sequencing of physical capital accumula-tion, human capital ac-cumulation and innovation drives the rise in China?s aggre-gate income. The first stage is characterized by physical capital accumulation. The second stage includes both physical and human capital accumulation, and in the final stage innovation is added to the mix. Model calibrations indicate that the growth model can generate a trajectory that accords well with the different stages of development in China.
    Keywords: China, economic growth, transitional dynamics
    JEL: D90 O31 O33 O41
    Date: 2012–06
  21. By: Vladimir Mau (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the socio-economic environment in Russia in 2011. The author tries to analyze the results and lessons of socio-political outcome of 2011. The focus is on the quest for a new growth model for Russia.
    Keywords: new growth model, global crisis
    Date: 2012
  22. By: Petreski, Marjan; Jovanovic, Branimir
    Abstract: Any attempt to model monetary policy in China has to take into account two ‘specifics’ of the Chinese monetary policy: the reliance on several operational instruments, both quantitative (open market operations, discount rate, reserve requirement) and qualitative (selective credit allowances, window guidance etc.), as well as the combined strategy pursued by the People’s Bank of China, i.e. the two intermediate targets - the exchange rate and the money growth. In this paper we analyze monetary policy in China using a small, three-equation New Keynesian model, considering these issues as follows: first, the qualitative instruments are estimated by using the Kalman filter, as no data on them exist. Then, a monetary-policy index is created as a weighted average of the quantitative and the qualitative instruments, which is in turn included in the model instead of the interest rate. Finally, the two intermediate targets (monetary growth and exchange rate) are included in the monetary-policy rule. Our results suggest that monetary authorities in China consider stabilizing inflation and output gap when making their decisions. Intermediate targets, in particular the growth of the monetary aggregates, appear to be important determinants of the monetary-policy behaviour, implying that their omission might be a serious drawback of any analysis. We also find that omitting the qualitative instruments can lead to wrong conclusions about monetary-policy conduct.
    Keywords: New Keynesian model; China; monetary policy
    JEL: E43 E12 E52
    Date: 2012
  23. By: Chau, Nancy H.; Kanbur, Ravi; Qin, Yu
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2012–01
  24. By: Luljeta Hajderllari (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Kostas Karantininis (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Ole Bonnichsen (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide some evidence on the push and pull factors that motivate farmers to expand across their home countries’ borders. The focus is on Danish expansion farmers and investor farmers setting up activities in Central and Eastern European countries like Slovakia, Poland, Romania and Latvia. Data from 44 mail surveys was analysed to explore the push and pull factors that contribute to farmers’ level of activities outside their home country. The responses given in the mail survey are analysed using two analytical methods of frequency analysis and an ordered probit model. The results indicate that the important factors for Danish farmers to extend overseas are price and availability of land, institutional governance, network and image with regard to farming. These findings generally support the literature regarding reasons for farmers to increase their cross-border activities, except that we do not find a significant influence from the availability of cheap labour in the host countries.
    Keywords: Denmark; Danish farmer; agriculture; cross-border; Central Eastern Europe
    JEL: C51 D22 F23 Q12 Q17
    Date: 2012–07
  25. By: de Brauw, Alan; Mu, Ren
    Keywords: Migration, Children, rural areas, undernourishment, Undernutrition,
    Date: 2012
  26. By: Chao Li (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: China’s local populations can be counted in two ways; by how many people have hukou household registration from each place and by how many people actually reside in each place. The counts differ by the non-hukou migrants – people that move from their place of registration – who have grown from fewer than five million when reform began in 1978 to over 200 million by 2010. For most of the first three decades of the reform era, the hukou count was used to produce per capita GDP figures. In coastal provinces the resident count is many millions more than the hukou count, while for migrant-sending provinces it is the reverse, creating a systematic and time-varying distortion in provincial GDP per capita. Moreover, a sharp discontinuity occurred when provinces recently switched from the hukou count to the resident count when reporting GDP per capita. A double-count also resulted because some provinces switched before others and initial resident counts were incomplete. This paper describes the changing definition of provincial populations in China and their impact on inequality in provincial GDP per capita. We show that much of the apparent increase in inter-provincial inequality disappears once a consistent series of GDP per resident is used.
    Keywords: inequality; growth; regional development; population; China
    JEL: O15
    Date: 2012–07–18
  27. By: Lima, Jinyang; Nama, Changi; Kimb, Seongcheol
    Abstract: While Chinese telecommunications industry has been continuously developing, the penetration rate of mobile telecommunications by province in China is distributed from less than 40% to larger than 100% in 2009. This regional disparity in terms of mobile telecommunications penetration rate is due to various socioeconomic factors such as income level, occupation structure, education level. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new approach for regional classification based on the diffusion characteristics of each province for more effective and efficient mobile telecommunication's diffusion policy and strategy. First, this paper estimates diffusion parameters, including an innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient of 31 provinces using mobile subscription data, and then classifies the provinces into six groups using cluster analysis based on the estimated innovation coefficient and imitation coefficients. The clusters are also significantly different in terms of socioeconomic perspective such as income level. The results of cluster analysis imply that the traditional regional classifications are too simple and should be divided more in detail in terms of innovation and imitation coefficients in the case of developing mobile telecommunications strategies. This new regional classification (six clusters) can be used for not only 3G diffusion policy but also the future mobile telecommunications technology diffusion policy. In China, 3G service was started in January 2009 as Chinese government awarded 3G cellular licenses. Finally, the managerial and political implications are addressed based on the new regional classification. --
    Keywords: Regional classification,Innovation coefficient,Imitation coefficient,Cluster analysis,Mobile telecommunications, China
    Date: 2012
  28. By: Ganeshan Wignaraja (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))
    Abstract: With international trade spluttering amidst the Great Recession, there is renewed interest in the factors driving firm-level export performance in Asia’s super exporter—The People’s Republic of China (PRC). While early studies suggested that innovation was important, there has been little research on opening up the black box of technology at firm-level in the PRC. This paper undertakes econometric analysis of innovation, learning, and exporting in automobiles and electronics firms in the PRC using a large-scale dataset to identify the most appropriate innovation proxy. Drawing on recent literature on innovation and learning in developing countries, it tests two alternative proxies : (i) a technology index (TI) to capture a variety of minor activities involved in using imported technologies efficiently; and (ii) the research and development (R&D)-to-sales ratio, which represents formal technological efforts to create new products and processes, often at world frontiers. A higher TI (representing minor technological activities) increases the probability of exporting in both industries, while the R&D-to-sales ratio was not significant. Foreign ownership, technical manpower, and the characteristics of the general manager/chief executive officer also matter. The findings suggest that the PRC’s remarkable success in the export of automobiles and electronics since initiating an open-door foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in 1978 is linked to technology transfer from multinationals; systematic investments in and upgrading of minor technological activities (like search, engineering, quality management, and design); and human capital. As the PRC’s per capita income rises over time, however, formal R&D activities are likely to become more important to sustain competitiveness and technological upgrading in automobiles and electronics.
    Keywords: Exporting firms, China, PRC, Export performance, innovation, technology index, R&D, technology transfer
    JEL: F23 O31 O32 L63 O57
    Date: 2012–07
  29. By: Dabija, Dan-Cristian; Alt, Monika Anetta
    Abstract: There is a clear tendency for the Romanian retailing to adapt to the requirements of the international market. If in the years following Romania’s adherence to capitalism the indigenous retailing was marked by a strong segmentation in small retail units with low turnover, retail chains were considerably developed. The domestic market began to be penetrated by the first European retail chains in the mid-nineties of the last century. That was the spark of the change, to which many of the players in the retail sector were not able to adapt. During this period one can notice, on the one hand, a decrease in the majority shareholding of state-owned capital in favor of private capital and, on the other hand, a decrease in the value of the public sector and an increase in the value of the private sector. Romania’s accession to the European Union and the removal of customs barriers to the merchandise brought from other member states represented for retailers the long-expected signal of progressive expansion. After going through the stage of consolidation and intra and inter-organizational learning in Bucharest and a few important cities, new subsidiaries were subsequently opened in most of the county towns. Whereas most retailers promised to open a considerable number of subsidiaries in the period of economic expansion, in the last years their activity has been on the decline, being focused mainly on solidifying their own position on the market through mergers or acquisitions as well as exhibiting a central tendency to focus heavily on price and customer attraction. Based on secondary sources of information, the present paper attempts to make a diagnosis-type analysis of the evolution of the retail market in Romania by highlighting the ways in which the western retail networks were adapted to the Romanian market as well as the strategies resorted to by the local networks in their attempt to overcome the economic crisis and deal successfully with the ever-decreasing income of the customers.
    Keywords: retail; crises; retail formats; acquisitions; food and non food retail
    JEL: L14 M31 L81
    Date: 2012
  30. By: Jano, Dorian
    Abstract: This article replicates and extends the Hille and Knill (2006) study on the implementation of the acquis communautaire in EU candidate countries. We use a different methodological approach, i.e. the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), and extend the analysis by incorporating EU-level factors (the intensity of EU conditionality). The fsQCA analysis shows that the bureaucratic effectiveness is systematically related to candidate countries' alignment performance whereas there is no systematic relationship between alignment performance, political constraints, financial capacities, government membership support and/or the absence of intensity of EU conditionality. --
    Keywords: acquis communautaire,EU candidate countries,Central and Eastern Europe,enlargement,Europeanization,fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis,implementation,policy change
    Date: 2012
  31. By: Peter Sanfey (EBRD); Simone Zeh (EBRD)
    Abstract: This paper sifts through a variety of competitiveness and business environment indicators to assess the state of reforms in south-eastern Europe (SEE). While common themes emerge, such as corruption, weak tax administration and the lack of availability of skills, there is a clear gap between those countries in the region that have joined, or are about to join, the European Union, and the remaining countries. The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index signals some similarities across the region, but other sources of information, such as the World Bank’s Doing Business reports and the EBRD/World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey, show up marked cross-country differences. We conclude with a number of targeted recommendations for policy reforms in areas such as cross-border trade and investment, tax administration and the development of new skills and innovation.
    Keywords: south-eastern Europe, competitiveness, reforms, transition
    JEL: O11 P2
    Date: 2012–06
  32. By: Csávás, Csaba; Erhart, Szilárd; Naszódi, Anna; Pintér, Klára
    Abstract: There is ample empirical evidence in the literature for the positive effect of central bank transparency on the economy. The main channel is that transparency reduces the uncertainty regarding future monetary policy and thereby it helps agents to make better investment, and saving decisions. In this paper, we document how the degree of transparency of central banks in Central and Eastern Europe has changed during periods of financial stress, and we argue that during the recent financial crisis central banks became less transparent. We investigate also how these changes affected the uncertainty in these economies, measured by the degree of disagreement across professional forecasters over the future short-term and long-term interest rates and also by their forecast accuracy.
    Keywords: central banking; transparency; financial crises; survey expectations; forecasting
    JEL: E58 E44 E47
    Date: 2012
  33. By: Ling Feng; Zhiyuan Li; Deborah L. Swenson
    Abstract: We use data on Chinese manufacturing firms to study the connection between individual firm imports and firm export outcomes. Since our panel covers the years 2002 to 2006, we can use changes in import tariffs associated with China’s WTO entry as instruments. Our regression results show that firms that expanded their intermediate input imports expanded the volume of their exports and increased their export scope, though the magnitude of the effects differed by import source, firm organizational form, and industry R&D intensity. On these dimensions, we find that imported intermediate inputs from OECD rather than non-OECD countries generated larger firm export improvements, that private Chinese firms derived larger benefits from imported inputs than did foreign invested firms, and that imported intermediates were especially helpful in expanding the exports of firms operating in high R&D intensity industries. Taken together, these results suggest that product upgrading facilitated by technology or quality embedded in imported inputs helped Chinese firms to increase the scale and breadth of their participation in export markets.
    Keywords: Trade liberalization, imported intermediate inputs, firm export, technology
    JEL: F10 F15 F31
    Date: 2012–06
  34. By: Vladimir Nazarov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Andrey Alaev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the issue of intergovernmental fiscal relations and subnational finances in Russia. The authors focus on the issue of subnational budgets in 2011, financial support from the federal budget. The point out to how the federal authorities stimulate the constitutent territories on the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: fiscal relations, subnational finances, federal budget, road funds, subnational budgets
    JEL: H5
    Date: 2012
  35. By: Angela Cheptea
    Abstract: Emerging countries have been winning large market shares since the early 1990s. Among these, China stands out with the most remarkable performance: it almost tripled its world market share becoming a leading exporter, second only to EU 27. Products exported by China incorporate, however, a large share of foreign inputs. By 2007 one tenth of internationally traded products were shipped to China. These recent evolutions reveal the large and growing domestic market potential and explain the increasing attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign producers. The present paper attempts to identify the countries that profit and suffer the most from the recent expansion of the Chinese market. I use an econometric shift-share methodology that permits to identify for each trade flow the share of growth arising from the capacity to target the products and markets with the highest increase in demand, and the share due exclusively to exporter's performance.
    Keywords: international trade, export performance, market shares, shift-share, China
    JEL: F12 F15
    Date: 2012
  36. By: Helmut Stix
    Abstract: The paper analyzes why households in transition economies prefer to hold sizeable shares of their assets in cash at home rather than in banks. Using survey data from ten Central, Eastern and Southeastern European countries, I document the relevance of this behavior and show that cash preferences cannot be fully explained by whether people are banked or unbanked. The analysis reveals that a lack of trust in banks, memories of past banking crises and weak tax enforcement are important factors. Moreover, cash preferences are stronger in dollarized economies where a “safe” foreign currency serves as a store of value. JEL classification: E41, O16, G11, D12, P34
    Keywords: Cash demand, cash hoarding, household finance, trust in banks, social capital, dollarization
    Date: 2012–07–27
  37. By: Yongding Yu (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))
    Abstract: As the world’s second largest economy, largest trading nation, and the largest foreign holder of United States (US) government bonds, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) needs a currency with international status that can match its economic status in the global economy. However, sequencing is important. Before the internationalization of the yuan can make meaningful progress, necessary conditions, such as the existence of deep and liquid financial markets, a flexible exchange rate and interest rates responsive to market conditions must be created. The process of yuan internationalization essentially is a process of capital account liberalization. Due to the unprecedented and complex global financial crisis and the PRC’s huge imbalances, capital account liberalization has to be pursued in a cautious way. As a result, the internationalization of the yuan is bound to be a long-drawn process. The PRC’s road map for the internationalization of the yuan is flawed with many missing links and wishful thinking. Yuan internationalization guided by the current road map may be proven counterproductive.
    Keywords: Yuan, internationalization, China, PRC, currency, international status, financial markets, exchange rate, capital account
    JEL: F31 F33
    Date: 2012–07
  38. By: Winkel, Axel
    Abstract: Sowohl China als auch Indien haben in den vergangenen 30 Jahren eine bemerkenswerte wirtschaftliche Transformation vollzogen. Aus den beiden ökonomisch unterentwickelten Staaten sind zwei zukünftige wirtschaftliche und politische Supermächte erwachsen. Trotz zahlreicher Reformen zur Liberalisierung der Volkswirtschaften ist in beiden Ländern der Staat noch immer der wichtigste wirtschaftspolitische Akteur. Basierend auf dem staatszentrierten Modell des Developmental State nimmt die Arbeit einen Vergleich der wirtschaftspolitischen Institutionen, Akteure und Industriepolitik Chinas und Indiens vor. Die Arbeit kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass China sich im Laufe des Untersuchungszeitraums zu einem Developmental State entwickelt hat und daher heute mit Einschränkungen als solcher bezeichnet werden kann. Indien weist hingegen nur partielle Übereinstimmungen mit dem Modell auf und es ist keine eindeutige Entwicklung hin zu einem Developmental State erkennbar. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit zeigen zudem, dass im Hin-blick auf China und Indien eine Erweiterung des theoretischen Ansatzes des Developmental States um eine vertikale bzw. regionale Analyseebene als analytisch vielversprechend angesehen werden kann. -- Both China and India have undergone a remarkable economic transformation in the last 30 years. The two economically underdeveloped countries are developing into future economic and political superpowers. Despite many reforms to liberalize the economies, the state is still the most important economic actor in both countries. This paper draws a comparison between the politico-economic institutions, actors and industrial policy of China and India based on the state-centred theoretical model of the developmental state. The paper arrives at the conclusion that China has emerged as a developmental state and therefore can today be labelled as one. India is only fractionally analogous to the model and not explicitly develo-ping towards a developmental state. In addition, this paper draws the conclusion that in regard to China and India, an extension of the theoretical approach of the developmental state with a vertical, respectively regional level of analysis appears promising.
    Date: 2012
  39. By: Aaron George Grech
    Abstract: Successive reforms enacted since the 1990s have dramatically changed Europe's pensions landscape. This paper tries to assess the impact of recent reforms on the ability of systems to alleviate poverty and maintain living standards, using estimates of pension wealth for a number of hypothetical cases. By focusing on all prospective pension transfers rather than just those at the point of retirement, this approach can provide additional insights on the efficacy of pension systems in the light of increasing longevity. Our estimates indicate that while reforms have decreased generosity significantly, in most countries poverty alleviation remains strong. However, moves to link benefits to contributions have made some systems less progressive, raising adequacy concerns for certain groups. In particular, unless the labour market outcomes of women and of lower-income individuals change substantially over the coming decades, state pension transfers will prove inadequate, particularly in Eastern European countries. Similarly while the generosity of minimum pensions appears to have either been safeguarded by pension reforms, or improved in some cases, these transfers generally remain inadequate to maintain individuals above the 60% relative poverty threshold throughout retirement. Our simulations suggest that the gradual negative impact of price indexation on the relative adequacy of state pensions is becoming even more substantial in view of the lengthening of the time spent in receipt of retirement benefits. The consumption smoothing function of state pensions has declined noticeably, strengthening the need for longer careers and additional private saving. When pressed, policymakers, particularly in Western Europe, seem to have been more willing to sacrifice the income smoothing function of pensions rather than its poverty alleviation function. Policymakers in some counties, notably Germany, France and the UK, have sought to refocus state pension systems towards generating better outcomes for people in the bottom half of the income distribution, probably with the insight that middle- to high-income individuals are possibly in a better position to accommodate the effect of state pension reforms by increasing their private saving. However in some cases, notably in Eastern Europe, results suggest that policymakers may not have fully considered the full impact of their policies on those on low incomes, on those with incomplete careers and on women.
    Keywords: Social Security, Public Pensions, Retirement, Poverty, Retirement Policies
    JEL: H55 I38 J26
    Date: 2012–05
  40. By: Pavel Trunin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Natalia Luksha (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This article deals with the Russia's 2011 monetary policy. The authors focus on the monetary market issues, inflationary development. They also point out to the main measures in the sphere of the monetary policy and the balance of paiments, and the RUR exchange rate.
    Keywords: monetary policy, money market, inflation, balance of payments, exchange rate
    Date: 2012
  41. By: Antonescu, Daniela (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: Regional convergence is a key objective of cohesion and balanced development at regional level. The existences of regional imbalances do nothing only delay the achievement this objective, requiring the emergence of viable and appropriate measures of the new European context. This article aims to use the appropriate models based on dispersion method (variance) to identify the dynamics and amplitude differences in the level of regional development in European Union and Romania. The results of this research indicate first that EU integration may have enhanced per-capita income convergence processes and second that the disparities between development regions in Romania have growth more rapidly in recent years. These findings may be able to find new tools to reduce income inequalities in next programming period.
    Keywords: Regional disparities, Convergence, Concentration, Distribution analysis
    JEL: R11 R12 F02
    Date: 2012–05
  42. By: Banai, Ádám; Király, Júlia; Nagy, Márton
    Abstract: In Hungary in the pre-crisis period the bank sector initiated private credit boom significantly contributed to the accumulation of economic imbalances. Nevertheless, before the 2008 crisis no special regulatory measure was taken to mitigate the FX lending to unhedged borrowers, which was one of the main moving force of the credit boom. Depreciation of the HUF and the increased risk premium significantly deteriorated the customers’ positions and resulted rocketing NPL-s. Recession, deteriorating portfolios, lack of efficient workout and the introduced strict regulation did freeze banking activity and the danger of recovery without lending did emerge. The paper compares the pre- and post-crisis lending activity and analyse both the lack of regulation in the pre-crisis and the inefficient regulation in the post-crisis period.
    Keywords: FX lending; macro prudential measures; credit growth; financial stability
    JEL: E58 G28 G21
    Date: 2012
  43. By: Aczél, Ákos; Homolya, Dániel
    Abstract: Our paper explores the risks that arise due to indebtedness of Hungarian local governments. Our analysis relies on interviews conducted with the heads of the local government business branches of the credit institutions most important in terms of local government financing and on the related data collections, as well as on data from the Hungarian State Treasury regarding the financial management of local governments and on data from banks. Until 2011, the repayment of the bonds issued during the bond issue boom experienced in the local government sector in 2007–2008 started only in the case of one third of the bonds outstanding. However, by the end of 2011 year nearly 50 per cent and by end-2013 90 per cent of total bonds outstanding will reach the principal repayment period. Due to the considerable foreign exchange exposure of total loans and bonds outstanding (60 per cent, 80 per cent of which is Swiss franc exposure) as well as to the declining revenues of local governments and the deteriorating economic prospects, it is doubtful that local governments will be able to repay their debts to the banking sector in line with the original maturities. Therefore local governments financing may have an effect not only on the fiscal position but on the whole financial system as well. Nevertheless, our partial analysis establishes that the risks related to the debt of the local government sector have increased significantly in the recent period, but these risks could be managed by the banks. The comprehensive restructuring of the local government system as a whole and a further changing of debt settlement procedures by the government may influence the financial position of the local government system. In parallel with the regrouping of tasks, transferring of a portion of local government debt (primarily from the county local governments) to the central budget may result in a clear picture.
    Keywords: banks; state and local borrowing; bankruptcy; liquidation
    JEL: H74 G33 G21
    Date: 2012
  44. By: Elizabeth Potamites; Bei Zhang
    Keywords: Field Experiment, Ambiguity attitudes, Ambiguity aversion , Individual investors
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2012–06–05
  45. By: Cărămidariu, Dan
    Abstract: The paper presents the evolution of Romanian economic policies shortly before and during the financial and economic crisis. It starts by pointing out key data on the Romanian economy in 2008 and focuses on the different action plans the Romanian governement has drawn and put into practice in 2009 and 2010. The paper analysizes especially the general cut-off of wages in the public sector, the raise of taxes (2010) and their influence on consumers' demand and the evolution of Romanian GDP in 2010 and 2011. At the same time, it focuses on the evolution of governement investments in 2010 and 2011, the tool officially proclaimed as Romania's magical key for getting out of the recession. The paper shows that although such a raise in public investments was a dominant element in the governement's economic discourse, in fact public investments decreased in 2011. Based on the fact that the austerity measures, combined with the raise of public investments, were - according to mainstream economists - the best possible policy mix for fighting the crisis, the paper comes to the conclusion that this policy mix has more negative than positive effects for the unreformed Romanian economy, as long as a true raise of public investments cannot be revealed. It shows that the crisis was used as a pretext for implementing Neoliberal principles in Romanian economic thought and policy as well, for pushing forward the dismantling process of the Romanian state.
    Keywords: response to crisis; neoliberalism; fiscal policy
    JEL: H11 B50 E61
    Date: 2012
  46. By: Yuqing Xing (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))
    Abstract: Trade statistics portray the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the largest exporter of high-tech products. In this paper I will argue that the PRC’s leading position in high-tech exports is a myth created by outdated trade statistics which are inconsistent with trade based on global supply chains. Current trade statistics mistakenly credit entire values of assembled high-tech products to the PRC, thus greatly inflating its exports. In 2009, the PRC’s value-added accounted for only about 3% of the total value attributed to its exports of iPhones and laptop personal computers. Moreover, 82% of the PRC’s high-tech exports were produced by foreign-invested firms, in particular Taipei,China-owned companies. In this paper I will argue that a value-added-based approach should be adopted to accurately measure high-tech exports. Furthermore, if assembly is the only source of the value-added generated by PRC workers, in terms of technological contribution these assembled high-tech exports are no different from labor-intensive products, and so they should be excluded from the high-tech classification.
    Keywords: High-tech exports, PRC, global supply chains, assembled high-tech products, trade statistics
    JEL: F1 F2
    Date: 2012–04
  47. By: Isilda Mara
    Abstract: This report describes the migration patterns of Romanian migrants in Italy before and after the accession of Romania into the European Union (EU). The findings and the main results presented throughout the report were collected by carrying out a survey in three main cities of Italy Milan, Turin and Rome which are recognized as the main destination regions of Romanians who have migrated to Italy since free visa liberalization in May 2004.The report focuses on four broad areas the profile and migration plans of migrants, regional differences and basic characteristics; labour market patterns during the migration experience, including income and remittances; social inclusion of migrants and access to social security and the health system; and, self-assessment of the migration experience and results of moving to Italy. The survey demonstrated that the mobility of migrants during the free visa regime was initially labour supply driven, whereas more recently, it has been labour demand that moved the migrant from his/her country of origin. However, the survey points out that almost half of Romanian migrants in Italy have indefinite migration plans. The remainder of the migrants express a preference for permanent migration, followed by long-term migration, while a preference for short-term migration is the least popular. The accession of Romania to the EU was accompanied by a flow of migrants with a higher preference for permanent and long-term migration, especially among those who arrived immediately after January 2007. Half of the migrants who had defined migration plans indicated that their current migration preferences, compared to the ones they had upon arrival, have shifted towards permanent migration. This is particularly true among women. As concerns remigration, or return to Romania, the survey reveals that migrants who are more likely to return to the country of origin or move to another country are those living in Rome while migrants who prefer to remain permanently are those living in Turin. As for labour market patterns and regional differences, four-fifths of migrants are employed, with the highest share of those working full-time found in Rome, followed by Turin and Milan. Unemployment among Romanian migrants seems to be the highest in Milan and the lowest in Turin. A significant proportion of migrant women have jobs in the categories ‘Sales and services elementary job’, ‘Personal care and related workers’ and ‘Housekeeping and restaurant services’. Men mostly work as ‘Extraction and building trades workers’, ‘Drivers and mobile plant operators’ and ‘Metal, machinery and related trades workers’. A non-negligible share of migrants work without a fixed contract which makes their employment position more vulnerable and open to exploitation. In addition, the survey shows that occupational switches occurred within all categories of occupational skill levels. In particular, there has been a trend towards jobs distinguished as medium and low skilled. Moreover, a comparison between education level and occupational skill level shows that highly skilled migrants, especially men, are employed in jobs below their level of educational achievement. A concern often expressed is that migrants who have access to health and social security services are more encouraged to enter or stay in a country. However, the survey rejected this hypothesis and suggests that neither receiving social security benefits nor the availability of accessing healthcare drives migrants’ decision to enter and remain in the destination country. Access to healthcare, however, appears to have some potential effect on migration plans. We find that the longer migrants plan to stay in the country, the higher the percentage of them who have access to a general practitioner/doctor and the higher the number of them whose migration decision is affected by access to such services. Accordingly, it emerges that the length of stay in the destination country matters and it confirms that there is a correlation between the duration of stay and the effect on migration plans attributed to access to social security and health services, even though such cases represent less than one-fifth of migrants. Self-assessment of the migration experience and outcomes from moving to Italy demonstrated that overall most of Romanian migrants are happy with their migration experience in Italy. The self-assessment indicated ‘making more money’, ‘finding a better job’ and ‘learning a new language’ as the main positive outcomes from the migration experience. In contrast, ‘insecurity about the future’, ‘discrimination’, ‘negative impact on family relationships’ and ‘doing work under the level of qualification’ are listed among the main negative outcomes.
    Keywords: data collection, migration, regions, employment, earnings, health, education, welfare, Romanian migrants
    JEL: C8 I J11 J21 J24 J31 J6 R Y Z
    Date: 2012–07
  48. By: Haiyan, Liu; Thomas, Wahl; James, Seale; Junfei, Bai
    Abstract: Though numerous researchers have analyzed the effects of socioeconomic factors on food-away-from-home (FAFH) consumption, little is known about how household composition will affect China’s FAFH patterns. This study focuses on the effects of household composition along with income and education on FAFH expenditures in urban China. A Box-Cox double-hurdle model is estimated using recent household survey data collected by the authors from Beijing, Nanjing, Chengdu, Xi’an, Shenyang and Xiamen, China. Household composition indeed has significant effects on FAFH consumption, both at the participation and expenditure steps. Different age groups have different influences. Seniors old than 60 years eat out less frequently and spend less when they consume FAFH, while adults between 20-49 are the major FAFH consumers in urban China. Children younger than 10 years have no significant effect on either FAFH participation or expenditure. Also, we find both income and wife’s education have positive effects on FAFH consumption. The participation elasticity with respect to income is a bit lower, while the expenditure elasticity is significantly higher. Families with highly educated wives tend to dine away from home more often than their counterparts.
    Keywords: Household composition, China’s Food Expenditures, Food-away-from-home, Box-Cox double-hurdle model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, D12, D13,
    Date: 2012
  49. By: Ana Fernandes (University of Exeter); Heiwai Tang (Tufts University, MIT Sloan, and Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano)
    Abstract: Recent studies in international trade report that new exporters often start selling small amounts and cease exporting in the first year. These findings re.ect a substantial amount of uncertainty facing new exporters. In this paper we study whether export activities in the neighborhood reveal information about export profitability and thus enhance new exporters. performance. Using transaction-level data for the universe of exporters in China over the period of 2001-2005, we find that new exporters’ first-year sales and probability of survival are both higher in cities where there are more existing export activities in the same market (industry or destination country). Export activities in other markets do not generate any positive spillovers, and in some cases we find negative spillovers. Spillovers from processing exporters are weaker. Foreign exporters benefit less from neighboring export activities. The relation between the magnitude of spillovers and the proxies for demand uncertainty is non-monotonic. We empirically verify that our findings are unlikely to be spurious or resulted from spillovers through the credit-constraint or the imported-material channels.
    Keywords: Knowledge Spillovers, Uncertainty, Export Dynamics, Multi-Product Exporters
    JEL: F1 F
    Date: 2012–07–16
  50. By: Ruiz estrada , M.A.
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new model to analyze the mobility of investment flows at the intra-states level, domestic level, intra-regional level and global level. This new model is entitled “the multi-level investment flow monitoring model (MIF-model)”. The MIF-model proposes five new indicators: domestic direct investment growth rate (DDI); intra-regional direct investment growth rate (IDI); total investment formation growth rate (TIF); investment reception performance growth rate (IRP). These indicators are built to analyze the mobility of investment flows in any country or region from a multi-level perspective across time and space. However, the application of the MIF-model is based on the analysis of investment flows behavior in China and ASEAN members in the past forty years.
    Keywords: Econographicology; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Capitals; Multidimensional Coordinate Spaces; Multidimensional Graphical Modeling for Economics; China; ASEAN
    JEL: E22
    Date: 2012–08–14
  51. By: Roman Horváth (Charles University, Prague and IOS, Regensburg); Kateřina Šmídková; Jan Zápal
    Abstract: We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy using data on five inflation targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom). We find that in all countries the voting records, namely the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal future monetary policy, making a case for publishing the records. This result holds even if we control for the financial market expectations; include the voting records from the period covering the current global financial crisis and examine the differences in timing and style of the voting record announcements.
    Keywords: monetary policy, voting record, transparency, collective decision-making
    JEL: D78 E52 E58
    Date: 2012–07
  52. By: Garbuzova , Maria (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: The Russian Energy Service Company (ESCO) market emerges rapidly due to the new energy efficiency legislation that has been implemented since 2009. However, a clear identification of the Russian ESCOs, comparable to those operating in the Western markets, remains rather difficult. Hence, aside from the independent ESCOs identified, further energy service-providing companies were within the scope of this survey. This paper delivers, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic empirical investigation of the Russian ESCO industry, taking into account experiences from the international ESCO markets. Building on the insights gained from reviewing the existing international and Russian academic and non-academic literature on the ESCO concept, an explorative, questionnaire-based survey among 161 Russian energy companies and organizations was conducted. Twenty eight usable responses were returned, corresponding to a response rate of 17%. Our findings show that the new energy efficiency legislation addresses and supports the state sector. There are almost no state measures supporting the commercial ESCO sector. Most of the projects are financed either through ESCOs’ own funds and direct loans to customers, or by the customers themselves. In contrast, Russian banks rarely provide direct loan financing for energy efficiency projects of ESCOs, but rather offer financial leasing contracts. The contractual form “guaranteed savings”, which is generally more applicable in mature ESCO markets, is gaining in importance, while “shared savings” is barely used.
    Keywords: Energy Efficiency; Financing; Energy Service Company; ESCO; Energy Performance Contracting; EPC; Energy Service Providing Company; ESPC
    Date: 2012–07
  53. By: Francesco Grigoli
    Abstract: Good practice suggests that budget allocations should reflect spending priorities and that spending should provide cost-effective delivery of public goods and services. This paper analyzes the composition of public expenditure in the Slovak Republic. It also assesses the relative efficiency of spending in education and health. The Slovak Republic spends more on social benefits and less on wages compared to the EU and OECD average. While it manages to translate the low expenditures into outcomes in an efficient manner in the education sector, this is not true for health. Moreover, the recent increases in expenditure levels have not improved outcomes, suggesting that significant budgetary savings could be achieved through increases in efficiency.
    Keywords: Education , Government expenditures , Health care , Public finance , Resource allocation ,
    Date: 2012–07–03
  54. By: Larson, Donald F.; Dinar, Ariel; Blankespoor, Brian
    Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions are largely determined by how energy is created and used, and policies designed to encourage mitigation efforts reflect this reality. However, an unintended consequence of an energy-focused strategy is that the set of policy instruments needed to tap mitigation opportunities in agriculture is incomplete. In particular, market-linked incentives to achieve mitigation targets are disconnected from efforts to better manage carbon sequestered in agricultural land. This is especially important for many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia where once-productive land has been degraded through poor agricultural practices. Often good agricultural policies and prudent natural resource management can compensate for missing links to mitigation incentives, but only partially. At the same time, two international project-based programs, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism, have been used to finance other types of agricultural mitigation efforts worldwide. Even so, a review of projects suggests that few countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia take full advantage of these financing paths. This paper discusses mitigation opportunities in the region, the reach of current mitigation incentives, and missed mitigation opportunities in agriculture. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternative policies designed to jointly promote mitigation and co-benefits for agriculture and the environment.
    Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Wetlands,Climate Change Economics,Environmental Economics&Policies,Energy and Environment
    Date: 2012–06–01
  55. By: Petukhova, Svetlana; Strepetova, Margarita
    Abstract: --
    Date: 2012
  56. By: De Rosa, Donato; Iootty, Mariana
    Abstract: This paper examines whether natural resource dependence has a negative influence on various indicators of institutional quality when controlling for the potential effects of other geographic, economic and cultural initial conditions. Analysis of a panel of countries from 1996 to 2010 indicates that a high degree of resource dependence, measured as the share of mineral fuel exports in a country's total exports, is associated with worse government effectiveness, as well as with reduced levels of competition across the economy. Furthermore, estimation of long-run elasticities suggests that government effectiveness and the intensity of domestic competition decrease over time as the dependence on natural resources increases. An illustration of the Russian case shows that the negative effects accumulate in the long run, leading to a worse deterioration of government effectiveness in Russia than in Canada, a country with a comparable resource endowment but far better overall institutional quality. This result is corroborated by a significant negative correlation found between regional resource dependence and an indicator of regulatory capture in Russian regions, which indicates that the regulatory environment is more likely to be subverted in regions that are more dependent on extractive industries. Overall, the findings would be consistent with a situation in which a generally weak institutional environment would allow resource interests to wield the bidding power accruing from export revenues to subvert the content of laws and regulations, as well as their enforcement. The fact that this is associated with negative externalities for the rest of the economy, notably by undermining a level playing field across non-resource sectors, sheds light on a potential channel for the resource curse.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies,Governance Indicators,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,E-Business
    Date: 2012–07–01
  57. By: MEREUTA, Cezar (Centrul Român de Modelare Economica, Bucuresti, România); CAPRARU, Bogdan (Universitatea „Al. I. Cuza”, Iasi, România)
    Abstract: In this work, we evaluate the competition in the Romanian banking system as regards the distortions in terms of market shares and the origin of capital, for the period 2000-2010, using the methodology of the structural analysis of the markets promoted by Mereuta (2012). Thus, we firstly check the features of structural distributions of the market shares in the case of the Romanian banking system, in the period 2000–2010; then we apply the Mereuta universal concentration matrix (2012) where we analyse the competition on the Romanian banking market, using two indicators: the M index and the degree of the structural dominance of the market leader (Gdl), and finally we conclude a "nodal" analysis of the Romanian banking system. Our approach demonstrates that all the structural peculiarities of the distributions of macro-experiment are confirmed in the Romanian banking system during the period 2000 - 2010 and that, in the period under review, the competition has continuously grown on the Romanian banking market, in particular due to the phenomenon of penetration of foreign capital. The distortions of competition in the light of the origin of the capital show that the penetration of foreign capital also increased its vulnerability and the risk of contagion. As regards policy recommendations for regulatory and supervisory authority, we suggest a very careful monitoring of soundness of all foreign banks, not only those from nodal countries; a close collaboration of National Bank of Romania (NBR) with the regulatory and supervisory authorities in the countries of origin of foreign banks branches; as well as a higher emphasis on the conduct of business of the banks and consumer protection. As for the banks management, we recommend that the stability of banks should be the main concern, rather than the preservation or increase in market shares.
    Keywords: competition, banks, structural approach, Romania
    JEL: G21 L11
    Date: 2012–07
  58. By: Vincze, Szilvia; Harsányi, Gergely
    Abstract: In the Széll Kálmán Plan the government committed itself to transform the higher education system; this change is necessary and actual. Reduction of neither the state-controlled higher education institutions, nor the number of students participating in higher education is justified: in an international comparison the number of Hungarian state-controlled institutions is significantly below the European average; in terms of the number of state financed students per one million inhabitants our arrears is considerable compared both to the surrounding and to the European developed countries. Number of people graduated in higher education in Hungary is below the OECD and UE19 average. In terms of higher education expenditures Hungary is amongst the last countries. However, government investments into higher education return significantly; Hungary is within the leading group in terms of this index. While rate of employment in basic and secondary education is below the average of OECD and EU19, our index in higher education is average or even above that. In the case of an employee with a higher education qualification the increased tax incomes mean approximately 20 million Ft additional income as compared to the case of a physical employee. Education directly defines the development path of a country; therefore it is extremely important for trends of modification to be professionally established and to serve growth.
    Keywords: higher education; return; economic and social benefit
    JEL: I23 I28 I22
    Date: 2012
  59. By: James P Walsh; Jiangyan Yu
    Abstract: There is an extensive literature noting that high inflation can add to income inequality, and a parallel literature assessing the effect of rising food prices on the poor. This paper attempts to combine these strands by dividing inflation into food and nonfood inflation and assessing whether food inflation affects income inequality differently from nonfood inflation. In an international sample and a sample of Chinese provinces, nonfood inflation exacerbates income inequality while the role of food inflation is more mixed. In a sample of Indian states broken down into urban and rural areas, we find that nonfood inflation adds to income inequality in both areas, while food inflation has a neutral to positive effect on income inequality in rural areas, providing support for the theory that rural wages may respond elastically to food prices.
    Keywords: Agricultural commodities , Income distribution , China , India , Inflation , Producer prices ,
    Date: 2012–06–07
  60. By: Ersado, Lire
    Abstract: Armenia meets about 75 percent of its energy needs through imports, with natural gas imports from Russia accounting for about 80 percent of total energy imports and 60 percent of total primary energy supply. Because of high dependence on imported energy, Armenia is vulnerable to external energy price shocks, which are often beyond the control of its policymakers. A most recent case in point was the 2010 Russian gas tariff increase, which led to a nearly 40 percent increase in the retail gas price for residential consumers. Coming on the heels of the global economic recession that hit Armenia's economy hard, the price hike amplified the impact on households that rely primarily on gas for heating and cooking. Using aggregate energy consumption data and a nationally representative household survey immediately before the crisis, this paper provides an overview of household energy consumption patterns, highlights Armenia's energy vulnerability, and estimates the direct poverty and distributional impacts of the increase in the cost of imported gas. The analysis shows that the gas price hike resulted in a significant increase in energy expenditures, with disproportionately higher impact on the poor and vulnerable households. The paper concludes with a discussion on the effectiveness of the mitigation measures employed by the Government of Armenia.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Transport and Environment,Water and Industry
    Date: 2012–07–01
  61. By: Fábián, Gergely; Fáykiss, Péter; Szigel, Gábor
    Abstract: Following the 2009 recession, a turnaround in corporate lending has not occurred in Hungary. Therefore, the risk of the phenomenon known in the literature as a creditless recovery has risen significantly. Based on empirical analyses, a creditless recovery leads to a slower and protracted economic recovery. Moreover, the escalating sovereign debt crisis in the peripheral euro area and banking regulatory responses in the EU may lead to more pronounced credit supply constraints by European banks, which could negatively affect the subsidiaries in the CEE region. The MNB staff has written numerous internal reports on the reasons behind the subdued lending and policy recommendations for reversing this trend. In this paper, we summarize the findings of this background research and review the state’s possible intervention alternatives to boosting corporate lending on both the supply and demand side. We think that the most effective way of intervention is that the public sector assumes partial credit risk from the banking sector, since a contraction in corporate lending can be attributed to credit supply constraints stemming from strong risk aversion by banks, making interest rates cuts ineffective in stimulating demand for loans. At the same time, it is important to note that state interventions involve substantial fiscal costs; simple, cost-free solutions do not exist among the options. Partial credit risk assumption is not an exemption either, as it translates into government expenditures quickly due to loan losses.
    Keywords: corporate lending; credit supply constraints; loan guarantee schemes; lending stimulation; state-owned development banks
    JEL: G28 H81 G21
    Date: 2012
  62. By: Kerényi, Ádám
    Abstract: In October 2008 the main Hungarian public finance actors: the government, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) and experts cited the high public debt and volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the economy’s vulnerability. On the other hand according to the formal president of the MNB the first and foremost it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary among the first to request outside assistance, in the form of international credit just after the Lehman bankruptcy. That critical time the MNB was only partially able to fulfil its role as the ‘lender of last resort’, and the Treasury was not able at all to conduct an anti-cyclical keynesian fiscal policy due to the previous fiscal years when the government lost its international creditworthiness. Hungarian Treasury (NGM) in November 2011 – three years later than the previous package – requested again outside assistance, in the form of international credit or insurance from the Monetary Fund and European authorities. A rethinking of fiscal and monetary policy, and the comprehensive restructuring of the Hungarian economic-policy mix, are essential in the interests of avoiding the following stops and goes periods and of halting the social and economic disintegration of the country. Instead of good governance Hungary needs co-governance between the fiscal and monetary policy. The Fiscal Council might be a very useful institution to help and moderate this process with its new president. A Lucasian regime change is expected in the Hungarian economy.
    Keywords: macroeconomic policy; macroeconomic aspects of public finance; fiscal policy; monetary policy
    JEL: E62 E50 E61 E60
    Date: 2012
  63. By: Sági, Judit
    Abstract: In the circumstances of the financial crisis, sovereign debts have increased with an effect on foreign exchange rates (NEERs), CDS spreads, market liquidity and debt exposures in foreign currencies. This study aims to examine the features of the Hungarian sovereign debt by analysing the possible interactions among the variables and also the monetary aspects of debt financing. At the end, some conclusions are drawn from a monetary perspective.
    Keywords: nominal FX rate; real effective FX rate; CDS
    JEL: G15 H63 G01
    Date: 2012
  64. By: Milicz, Ákos
    Abstract: The present study deals with the role of the state in the economy and the possibilities to control this role. Measurability of efficiency and the Hungarian characteristics of the role of the state are in the focus of this study, but these issues are organically linked to the notion of transparent economic management. The present study presents the place and the forms of state role from a hypothetical perspective, and then unfolds their practical application through Hungarian examples.
    Keywords: state tasks; state role; control of community expenditure; efficiency of public administration; internal audit of the budget
    JEL: H40
    Date: 2012
  65. By: Marinela, Simuţ Ramona; Lavinia, Delcea (Săutiuţ)
    Abstract: According to the statistics released by the Romanian National Institute of Statistics, our country registered during the last years an increase of the unemployment rate. In this paper we try to establish if and how the world economic crises influenced this increase. After a short review of the established theories and models in the field, our paper analyzes the evolution of the Romanian unemployment rate during the last years, in order to identify a number of factors which determined its evolution as well as in order to point out the importance of these factors. The paper continues with a study of the employment policy promoted by the Romanian government and ends with a forecast of the unemployment rate for the immediate following period.
    Keywords: unemployment; policy; forecast
    JEL: C5 E2 C1
    Date: 2012

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