nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2011‒11‒28
twelve papers chosen by
J. David Brown
Heriot-Watt University

  1. The United States Should Establish Normal Trade Relations with Russia By Anders Aslund; Gary Clyde Hufbauer
  2. The External Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence from Firm Level Data By Barry Eichengreen; Hui Tong
  3. Speed and Sequencing of Transition Reforms and Income Inequality: a Panel Data Analysis By David Aristei; Cristiano Perugini
  4. Developments in the Agricultural and Rural Capital Market of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia By Angelova, Biljana; Bojnec, Stefan
  5. Rural Labour Market Developments in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia By Janeska, Verica; Bojnec, Stefan
  6. Productivity and Credit Constraints Firm-Level Evidence from Propensity Score Matching By Ciaian, Pavel; Falkowski, Jan; Kancs, d'Artis; Pokrivcak, Jan
  7. Agricultural and Rural Labour Markets in the EU Candidate Countries of Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey By Bojnec, Stefan
  8. Agricultural and Rural Capital Markets in the EU Candidate Countries: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey By Bojnec, Stefan
  9. Land Markets in the EU Candidate Countries of Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey By Bojnec, Stefan
  10. Migration and Remittances in Kazakhstan: First Evidence from a Household Survey By Barbara Dietz; Kseniia Gatskova; Achim Schmillen
  11. History matters, but how? An example of Ottoman and Habsburg legacies and judicial performance in Romania By Mendelski, Martin; Libman, Alexander
  12. Macroeconomic and taxation conditions of national innovation system of Ukraine By Andrey Martovoy; Dimitri Gagliardi

  1. By: Anders Aslund (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: The potential benefits to the US economy from Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) are substantial but the United States can enjoy them only if it grants Russia permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status—by repealing application to Russia of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which bars favorable trade relations with countries that restrict emigration. While congressional approval is not necessary for completion of Russian accession to the WTO, Congress needs to grant Russia PNTR to make it possible for US companies to take full advantage of the best available conditions of access to the Russian market for both trade and investment. Åslund and Hufbauer calculate that US exports to Russia could double over the next five years—from $9 billion in 2010 to $19 billion—adding jobs in the services, agriculture, manufacturing, and high-tech sectors. More generally, with Russia's accession to the WTO and the United States granting PNTR to Russia, US-Russia commercial relations will be set on a sounder and friendlier footing, facilitating cooperation on national security and political issues. By strengthening the rules-based global trading system, WTO accession and PNTR will discourage Russia from undertaking protectionist measures. President Barack Obama has stated that he looks forward to working with Congress "to end the application of the Jackson-Vanik amendment to Russia in order to ensure that American firms and American exporters will enjoy the same benefits of Russian WTO membership as their international competitors." It is imperative that Congress respond constructively in the same spirit of bipartisanship that led to the successful approval earlier this year of the Colombia, Korea, and Panama trade accords. Political wrangling, misjudgment, and miscalculations must not be allowed to cost the United States a significant new source of economic growth and cooperation in the future.
    Date: 2011–11
  2. By: Barry Eichengreen; Hui Tong
    Abstract: We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but little positive or even a negative impact on those providing inputs for China’s processing exports. Stock prices rise for firms competing with China in their home market while falling for firms importing Chinese products with large imported-input content. Renminbi appreciation also reduces the valuation of financially-constrained firms, particularly in more financially integrated countries.
    JEL: F0 F3 F30 F31
    Date: 2011–11
  3. By: David Aristei (Department of Economics, Finance and Statistics, University of Perugia); Cristiano Perugini (Department of Economics, Finance and Statistics, University of Perugia)
    Abstract: An extensive literature has analysed the economic effects of transition patterns in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. With few recent exceptions, analysis of the impacts of speed and sequencing of reforms has not concerned the dynamics of income inequality. In this paper we analyse the heterogeneous effects of transition reforms on inequality by explicitly considering their speed and sequencing. To this aim we identify seven transition models in which the 27 countries considered can be classified. The dynamic panel econometric analysis for the period 1989–2006 reveals that balanced transition patterns, which favoured a coordination of reforms especially in specific fields, were relatively less pro-inequality.
    Keywords: Inequality, Transition, Reform speed and sequencing, Dynamic panel models
    JEL: D31 C23 P21 P36
    Date: 2011–10
  4. By: Angelova, Biljana; Bojnec, Stefan
    Abstract: The undeveloped rural capital market in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is constrained by an urbanârural development gap, with limited capacities for rural development and imperfections in the rural capital market. Among the most striking hindrances are the illegal status of a large share of agricultural buildings and other real estate in rural areas, particularly on the individual family farms that prevail in the country, and the insufficient knowledge and abilities of individual farmers in applying for credit. National, EU and other donor funds are being used to improve knowledge, skills and other human resources, and to address the illegal status of buildings and facilities. During the most recent years, government support for agricultural, rural and regional development has been introduced to promote good agricultural practices, production and economic activity in rural areas. The elimination of imperfections and improvements to the functioning of the capital market â making access to credit and funds easier, especially for small-scale family farms and for rural development â are seen as measures contributing to agriculture and more balanced rural and regional development.
    Keywords: Capital market, farm income, subsidies, loans, agricultural and rural development, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Political Economy,
    Date: 2011–10
  5. By: Janeska, Verica; Bojnec, Stefan
    Abstract: The significant changes in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of human resources in rural Macedonia can be explained by the continued trend of emigration from villages to urban areas and abroad. The intensity of emigration has altered the demographic structure and reproductive base of the rural population, along with the income of rural households. The rural and agricultural labour market faces a mismatch with respect to the unfavourable age, education and spatial distribution of the total labour force. A reduction in the participation of women in the agricultural labour force is a new feature. The overall transformation is apparent in the income structure of rural households. An increase in the share of households with mixed income sources notably stems from households that receive remittances and foreign currency funds from family members abroad. The demographic revitalisation of rural areas depends on economic revitalisation, with a more rational use of the labour force and human resources, as well as a restructuring of agricultural production and agricultural holdings. In addition, improvements are necessary in the functioning of market institutions to better meet the needs of smaller farmers and the rural economy.
    Keywords: Rural labour market, agricultural transformation, rural households, emigration process, rural economy business management, Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Political Economy,
    Date: 2011–09
  6. By: Ciaian, Pavel; Falkowski, Jan; Kancs, d'Artis; Pokrivcak, Jan
    Abstract: Drawing on a unique, farm-level panel dataset with 37,409 observations and employing a matching estimator, this paper analyses how farm access to credit affects farm input allocation and farm efficiency in the Central and Eastern European transition countries. We find that farms are asymmetrically credit constrained with respect to inputs. Farm use of variable inputs and capital investment increases up to 2.3% and 29%, respectively, per â¬1,000 of additional credit. Our estimates also suggest that farm access to credit increases total factor productivity up to 1.9% per â¬1,000 of additional credit, indicating that an improvement in access to credit results in an adjustment in the relative input intensities on farms. This finding is further supported by a negative effect of better access to credit on labour, suggesting that these two are substitutes. Interestingly, farms are found not to be credit constrained with respect to land.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Political Economy,
    Date: 2011–09
  7. By: Bojnec, Stefan
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview and comparison of labour markets in agricultural and rural areas in the three candidate countries for the EU membership: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. We analyse and compare the labour market structures and the factors driving them. The analyses are based on the available cross-section and time-series data on agricultural labour structures and living conditions in rural areas. Considerable differences are found among the candidate countries in the importance of the agricultural labour force, between rural and urban labour, and in poverty and living conditions in rural areas. Agricultural and rural labour market structures are the result of demographic and education processes, in addition to labour flows between agricultural and non-agricultural activities, from rural areas to urban ones and migration flows abroad. Declines in the agricultural labour force and rural population are foreseen for each of the candidate countries, but with significant variations between them. Showing different patterns over time, labour market developments in the sector and rural areas have been shaped by the overall labour market institutions, conditions and other factors in each country, such as the legal basis, educational attainment and migration flows, as well as the presence of non-agricultural activities in rural areas.
    Keywords: Labour market, agricultural and rural labour structures, education, gender, unemployment and living conditions in rural areas, candidate countries, European Union., Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Political Economy,
    Date: 2011–09
  8. By: Bojnec, Stefan
    Abstract: This paper analyses agricultural and rural capital factor markets in the three European Union candidate countries: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia and Turkey. Aggregate capital market indicators and their dynamics, and factors driving agricultural and rural capital markets are analysed and compared in these countries. In general, agricultural and rural capital markets show similarities with general capital market developments, but agricultural and rural capital markets are facing specific credit constraints related to agricultural assets and rural fixed asset specificities, which constrain their mortgages and collateral use. Credit market imperfections have limited access to the investment credits necessary for the restructuring of small-scale individual farms. Government transfers are used to differing extents in the candidate countries, but generally tend to increase over time. Remittances and donor funds have also played an important role in agricultural and rural economy investments.
    Keywords: Capital market, agriculture and rural areas, European Union, candidate countries, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Political Economy,
    Date: 2011–10
  9. By: Bojnec, Stefan
    Abstract: The paper provides an overview and a comparison of land markets covering the three candidate countries for European Union membership: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia and Turkey. We analyse and compare agricultural land structures and factors driving land markets. The analyses are based on the available cross-section and time-series evidence on agricultural land structures and land productivity (yields). The land productivity measured by production per hectare of agricultural land varies between the three countries. Agricultural land structures are the result of historical evolution in land markets and land-leasing developments with additional different institutional environments and agrarian and land reforms.
    Keywords: Land markets, land structures, land productivity, candidate countries, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Political Economy,
    Date: 2011–09
  10. By: Barbara Dietz (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies)); Kseniia Gatskova (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies)); Achim Schmillen (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies))
    Abstract: Internal migration flows in Kazakhstan are of high social and political relevance but political and public attention has primarily been devoted to external movements. This paper presents the main descriptive results of a new household survey on migration and remittances in Kazakhstan which was conducted in four cities (Almaty, Astana, Karaganda and Pavlodar) between October and December 2010. It summarizes the survey’s methodology, gives an overview over the basic characteristics of respondents, illustrates migration experiences on the individual and the household level and compares migrants and non-migrants. Furthermore, the prevalence of remittances and attitudes towards migration are discussed.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, data analysis, regional migration, remittances
    JEL: C81 F24 R23
    Date: 2011–11
  11. By: Mendelski, Martin; Libman, Alexander
    Abstract: The paper examines the interdependence of historical legacies and current contextual factors as determinants of economic and political performance. It shows that behavioral patterns based on identical legacies could lead to very different (if not the opposite) results in regions with different contextual socioeconomic characteristics. Specifically, the paper compares the demand for litigation as an important aspect of judicial performance in two different historical and cultural regions of Romania, which have been in the past under indirect Ottoman rule and part of the Habsburg Empire respectively. Although Romania is currently a centralized state with common judicial system, both parts of the country inherited substantially different legacies from the history. We find that while in rich regions Habsburg legacy leads to higher demand for litigation than the Ottoman, in poor regions the situation is reversed. The results remain robust for various specifications, controls and estimation techniques. --
    Keywords: historical legacies,judicial performance,contextual factors,demand for litigation,Habsburg legacy,Ottoman legacy
    JEL: K41 K42 N44 O17 P26
    Date: 2011
  12. By: Andrey Martovoy; Dimitri Gagliardi
    Abstract: NIS is nowadays one of the most widespread tools of the analysis of factors influencing the creation, diffusion and adoption of innovations. Innovation is often more seen as the main driver for growth within economic and social systems. During the Soviet era, the national innovation system of Ukraine was somehow integrated within the Soviet Union’s system of innovation, though each republic had their production, research and development specialisation. Over last decades science and technology sectors of Ukraine underwent considerable changes in the bid to reallocate its scientific resources away from military towards civilian goals and to develop its internal capacity to foster innovations. Nonetheless the Ukrainian system of Innovation has performed very poorly. Ukrainian NIS failure reflects in the poor innovation performance of national firms. In the past two decades it became apparent that macroeconomic conditions and taxation are among the most important framework conditions which affected negatively the innovation performance of Ukraine.
    Keywords: innovation policy, macroeconomic analysis of economic development, government policy
    JEL: O11 O38
    Date: 2011

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