|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | H. Lehmann; A. Muravyev |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the evolution of labor markets and labor market institutions and policies in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe as well as of Central Asia over the last two decades. The main focus is on the evolution of labor market institutions, which are among candidate explanations for the very diverse trajectories of labor markets in the region. We consider recent contributions that attempt to assess the effect of labor market institutions on labor market performance of TEs, including the policy-relevant issue of complementarity of institutions. |
| JEL: | J21 P20 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp783&r=tra |
| By: | Takacs-Gyorgy, Katalin; Erdelyi, Tamas; Sadowski, Adam |
| Abstract: | Land property, in the post socialist countries, was rebuilt in the beginning of the 90âs. The process went in different way in Poland and in Hungary. The different initial conditions are resulted in different development in the agricultural economy of these two countries. Now the agriculture had different characteristics. Despite of the fact that there are different elements of ownership structures, the importance of farm land leases is increasing in both evaluated countries. Regarding to the competitiveness of agriculture, Poland showed a developing tendency after the accession, but Hungary suffers from serious problems. The aims and means of agricultural policy have gone through numerous changes throughout the last fifty years in the history of the European Union and its predecessors. Specialties deriving from the characteristics of agricultural production and its structure have come continuously in the foreground when shaping the aims and means of the policy. The sustainable usage of natural resources is of augmented importance, which is basically based on the limitation of land usage and the introduction of various incentives. The (Axis 2) measures serve this objective by enhancing the utilization and protection of arable land. The land use is affected by all the above. |
| Keywords: | land ownership and rental, effects on tendencies, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:116338&r=tra |
| By: | Pryymachenko, Yana (Department of Economics, Lund University); Fregert, Klas (Department of Economics, Lund University); Andersson, Fredrik N. G. (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the scant empirical literature on the effects of emigration on source countries’ labour markets. Using a novel dataset by Brücker et al. (2009), we investigate whether emigration from the Central and Eastern European (CEE) members of European Union (EU) during the period 2000 to 2007 has contributed to the decline in unemployment observed in these countries. We find that along with structural changes that occurred in the CEE economies during the last decade, emigration indeed had a strong negative effect on unemployment in these countries. A 10 per cent increase in emigration rate leads to around 5 per cent decrease in unemployment rate. Given the minor effect of immigration on host countries’ unemployment found in the literature (including the studies examining the East-West European migration), this paper’s results indicate that the opening up of labour markets following the enlargement of EU in 2004 mainly has had positive effects. |
| Keywords: | emigration; unemployment; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2011–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2011_032&r=tra |
| By: | Klapper, Leora; Panos, Georgios A. |
| Abstract: | The authors examine the association of financial literacy with retirement planning in Russia, a country with a relatively old and rapidly aging population, large regional disparities, and a rapidly emerging financial market. They find that only 36.3 percent of respondents in the sample understand interest compounding and only half can answer a simple question about inflation. In a country with widespread public pension provisions, they find that financial literacy is significantly and positively related to retirement planning involving private pension funds and schemes. Thus, along with encouraging the availability of private retirement plans, efforts to improve financial literacy could be pivotal to the expansion of the use of such schemes. |
| Keywords: | Financial Literacy,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Gender and Law |
| Date: | 2011–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5827&r=tra |
| By: | Curtiss, Jarmila; Ratinger, Tomas; Medonos, Tomas |
| Abstract: | Cooperative and corporate farms have retained an important role for agricultural production in many transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Despite this importance, their ownership structure and particularly the ownership's effect on their investment activity vital for efficient restructuring and the sector's future development are still not well understood. This paper aims to analyze the ownership-investment relationship using data on Czech farms from 1997 to 2008. We allow for ownership-specific variability in farm investment behavior analyzed by means of error-correction accelerator model. Empirical results suggest significant differences in the level of investment activity, responsiveness to market signals, investment lumpiness of investment as well as sensitivity to financial variables among farms with different ownership characteristics. Resulting increase in farm performance differences among farms can be expected to lead to farm restructuring in direction of lowering number of owners and increasing ownership concentration. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114282&r=tra |
| By: | Sylvie Demurger (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure de Lyon); Hui Xu (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes return migrants' occupational choice upon their return to their home village, by using an original rural household survey conducted in Wuwei county (Anhui province, China) in 2008. We apply two complementary approaches : a horizontal comparative analysis of occupational choice between non-migrants and return migrants, and a vertical investigation of the impact of migration experience on returnees only. Two main findings are drawn up from the estimation of probit models which account for potential selection bias and endogeneity. First, return migrants are more likely to be self-employed and to opt for higher ability jobs than non-migrants. Second, both return savings and the frequency of job changes during migration increase the likelihood for return migrants to become self-employed. These findings suggest that (a) working experience during migration enhances individual's human capital and entrepreneurial ability, and (b) repatriated migration experience is a key stimulating factor in promoting rural entrepreneur activity. |
| Keywords: | Return migrants ; occupational change ; entrepreneurship ; Asia ; China |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00627732&r=tra |
| By: | Sylvie Demurger (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure de Lyon); Shi Li (School of Economics and Business Administration - Beijing Normal University / Beijing); Juan Yang (School of Economics and Business Administration - Beijing Normal University / Beijing) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the changes in public-private sector earnings differentials for local residents in urban China between 2002 and 2007. We find that earnings gaps across ownership sectors decreased during this period and that the convergence trend has been in favor of the private and semi-public sectors as opposed to the public sector. This trend is in sharp contrast to what occurred at the turn of the 21st century when employees the government and state-owned enterprises were found to enjoy a privileged situation. Differences in endowments are found to play a growing role in explaining earnings differentials. However, although it is becoming less of an issue, segmentation across ownership remains important, especially for high-wage earners. |
| Keywords: | labor market; earnings differentials; segmentation; enterprise ownership; China |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00627719&r=tra |
| By: | Bijman, Jos; Hu, Dinghuan |
| Abstract: | Since the late 1990s, the number of farmer cooperatives in China has rapidly grown. The adoption of the national law on farmer professional cooperatives in 2007 has led to significant governmental support for the establishment and management of farmer professional cooperatives. This paper explores the organizational features of the newly established cooperatives as well as the services they provide to their members. Particular attention is given to the role of local entrepreneurs in grouping farmers and in acquiring support from local and regional state agencies. The paper is based on data about a group of 200 agriculture and aquaculture cooperatives in Hubei province, central China. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114252&r=tra |
| By: | Falkowski, Jan; Jakubowski, Maciej; Strawinski, Pawel |
| Abstract: | In order to stabilize and improve their income situation, rural households are strongly encouraged to diversify their activities both in and outside the agricultural sector. Most often, however, this phenomenon takes on only moderate proportions. This paper addresses issues of rural householdsâ income diversification in the case of Poland. It investigates returns from rural householdsâ income strategies using propensity score matching methods and extensive datasets spanning 1998-2008. Results suggest that returns from combining farm and off-farm activities were lower than returns from specialization, namely, concentrating on farming or on off-farm activities. Generally, farming seems to be the most attractive option for rural households and income difference between farmers and those who combine farming and off-farm activities increased after Poland joined the EU. |
| Keywords: | Income diversification, rural areas, propensity score matching, Poland, Community/Rural/Urban Development, D31, O15, Q12, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114364&r=tra |
| By: | Takacs, Istvan; Liebmann, Lajos |
| Abstract: | The foreign direct investment (FDI) is a form of the capital flow having several century traditions. In the privatization as well as modernization of economies following the economic and political transition of the countries in the Central and Eastern Europe at the 1990s the role of the foreign direct investment was significant. According to the research, besides to the general positive effects of the FDI (production culture, market demand orientated product and technology innovation, supplier nets of SMEs, diffused know-how, quality demands, etc.) also led to economic dependency as well as market structure deformations (see oil industry, sugar industry, retail chains). The point of view of sectors the foreign direct investment has flowed insignificantly into the agriculture (raw material production), while it has been significant into the food industry. The paper discusses the relations as well as causes of them. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:116339&r=tra |
| By: | Qineti, Artan; Smutka, Lubos |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies and analyzes the changes that have occurred in terms of territorial and commodity structure of agrarian trade (exports) of countries of the Visegrad Group (or V4 -i.e. Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia) in the period 1993-2008. In terms of methodological approaches, the analysis is divided into several parts dealing with the development of the agrarian trade of the Visegrad Group in terms of commodity and territorial structure, as well as from the perspective of the sensitivity of agrarian trade (exports) to the changing economic environment. The paper concludes that in recent years, both the value and volume of V4 export and import operations increased significantly. In the case of exports, individual countries have managed increasing its volumes of exported sophisticated products. The share of current EU members on the value of V4 agricultural trade is increasing at the expense of trade with "third countries". EU accession and its common market forced all analyzed V4 countries to restructure the export commodity structure and most of them (excluding Hungary) have been able to export in the EU market sophisticated products with higher unit prices. It is expected that with the intensification of V4 integration within the EU single market, prices of agrarian exports will rise further. V4 countries are going through a gradual process of specialization of exports of a limited number of aggregate commodity groups. Various specific factors might cause an overall restructuring of the agrarian sector and foreign trade activities in the V4 countries. |
| Keywords: | Agrarian Trade, Visegrad Countries, European Union., International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114781&r=tra |
| By: | Li, Zhigang; Yu, Xiaohua; Zeng, Yinchu |
| Abstract: | costs: Evidence from Chinese agricultural traders |
| Keywords: | Transportation Costs, China, Agricultural Traders, Infrastructure, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114384&r=tra |
| By: | Feng, Yao |
| Abstract: | Using the 1999 durable consumption survey data in rural China, we examine the importance of local spillovers in the diffusion of three major durable goods, i.e., color television set, washing machine, and refrigerator. We find that, with control for many family characteristics, a household is more likely to buy its first durable good in villages where a large share of households already own one. Further evidence suggests that theses patterns are unlikely to be explained by unobserved local characteristics. When examined in more detail, the extent of local spillovers appears to be negatively related to a household’s knowledge about the product, and positively related to its education level. Both are consistent with the hypothesis that learning from neighbors plays an important role of these spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Local spillovers; Social learning; Durable adoptions |
| JEL: | D12 L68 O33 |
| Date: | 2011–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33924&r=tra |
| By: | Kopecek, P.; Kopp, O. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines development of the Czech agriculture through profitability of the dairy - milk in time horizon 2002-2010. The analyse base of the methodology and the database published by Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information in Prague. The aim of the paper is to give an objective information about influence of agrarian policy on the development of milk production, especially with reference to comparison of changes in the pre-accession (period I = 2002-2003) and in the after-accession of CR to the EU with consistent producer prices of milk (period II = 2004-2008) and with reduced producer prices of milk (prediction of period III = 2009-2010). This deals with the economic position of Czech producers related to the most considerable livestock commodity of the Czech agriculture through 2 indicators, profitability without supports (R-S) and profitability with supports (R+S). There was proved that profitability R+S in the period I was negative for dairy sector. In connection with the membership of CR in EU agricultural supports significantly increased for dairy sector as the consequence of applying of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Czech agriculture. Therefore there were monitored in the period II important positive changes of the indicator R+S for milk commodity. In the connection with the decrease of producer prices in the period III there was found important downgrade of this indicator. For the Czech Republic there were obtained following milk production values of R+S in the period I, resp. II and III 2,1 %, resp. 10,8 and â7,4 %. |
| Keywords: | Common Agricultural Policy, milk profitability, supports, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114708&r=tra |
| By: | Matyukha, Andriy; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Saraykin, Valeriy; Uzun, Vasilii |
| Abstract: | This study conveys the impact of corporate ownership on economic performance of agroholdings â integrated agricultural, processing, marketing, financial and industrial business units in Russiaâs agro-food sector. Using a unique database of the All-Russian Nikonov-Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics, we investigate 151 agroholdings in Russia and evaluate their economic performances for 2006. Applying the multiple linear regression analysis we were able to quantify corporate ownership and analyze a priori unobserved factors. The results of the econometric estimation reveal that state ownership exerts negative influence on the economic performance of agroholdings. |
| Keywords: | Agroholding, Corporate Ownership, Performance, Russia, Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi11:115535&r=tra |
| By: | Tafreschi, Darjusch |
| Abstract: | Though existing theories predict the income gradient of individual body weight to change sign from positive to negative in process of economic development, empirical evidence is scarce. This paper adds to the literature on that topic by investigating the case of China using data from the China Health and Nutrition survey. Using a one-dimensional measure to characterize the level of economic development of a region, regression analyses indicate that more income is related to larger future growth of individuals’ BMI in less developed areas whereas it lowers BMI growth in more developed areas. The switch is somewhat more pronounced for females. Finally, using concentration indices it is shown that overweight status is predominantly a problem of higher income ranks in less developed geographical areas and trickles down to lower income ranks throughout the course of economic development. |
| Keywords: | BMI, Bodyweight, Income, Development, China, CHNS, Concentration Index |
| JEL: | I18 O12 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2011:40&r=tra |
| By: | Malhar Nabar |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a panel of China’s provinces over the period 1996-2009 during which urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent. It finds that the increase in urban saving rates is negatively associated with the decline in real interest rates over this period. This negative association suggests that Chinese households save with a target level of saving in mind. When the return to saving declines (increases), it becomes more difficult (easier) to meet a target and households increase (lower) their saving out of current disposable income to compensate. The results are robust across specifications and to the inclusion of additional variables. A main policy implication is that an increase in real deposit rates may help lower household saving and boost domestic consumption. |
| Keywords: | Bank reforms , Banks , China , Interest rates , Private consumption , Private investment , Private savings , |
| Date: | 2011–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/223&r=tra |
| By: | Wang, Xiaobing; Yu, Xiaohua |
| Abstract: | Using a panel dataset from Zhejiang province in China over the period 1995-2002, we propose a two-step estimation procedure to investigate the links between land lease activity and production efficiency. We find that the output elasticity with respect to land, the scale effect and the technical efficiency are higher for farmers involved in land-lease activities. In addition, technical efficiency and land-lease activity are endogenous, and farmers with higher technical efficiency are more likely to lease more land and adopt advanced technologies to achieve higher profits, which in turn alters the technical efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Land Lease, Land Use Rights, Technical Efficiency, Scale Effect, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Q15, P23, D50, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:115736&r=tra |
| By: | Hou, Linke; Wang, Xiaobing; Yu, Xiaohua |
| Abstract: | This study establishes a life-cycle model that a representative agent chooses optimal time of education to maximize his/her life earning, which implies that there may exist nonlinear relation between education and earning. Using the data of Chinese off-farm wage employment, we find that the duration of schooling years will increase by 1.7 years with 1 percent increase in rate of return to education. The empirical results also indicate that controversies about return to education might arise from model misspecification without consideration of nonlinearity and sample selection. |
| Keywords: | return to schooling, life-cycle model, rational expectation, China, Labor and Human Capital, I20, J43, Q01, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114530&r=tra |
| By: | Kopeva, Diana; Shterev, Nikolay; Blagoev, Dimitar |
| Abstract: | Industry dynamic is a key indicator for sustainable industry growth. It depends on variety of factors on international and regional level. One of the important driving forces on international level is seen in the face of economic and political alliances. Cultural and regional policies, and social behaviour are driving industry dynamics on a regional level though. Our hypothesis is that specific differences of industrial dynamics of the Balkan countries occurred based on economic and political alliances (EU membership; Euro zone, Black Sea Economic Cooperation). This hypothesis is verified with analysis of a traditional for the Balkans industrial sector like Food and Beverage. The paper aims to find out more evidence to verify a basic hypothesis. It includes a comparative analysis of some basic industrial dynamicâs indicators for the European Union (EU 16), Greece, Romania and Bulgaria. The analysed period is 2000-2010. The conclusions are concentrated mostly on Bulgaria. |
| Keywords: | Food and Beverage Industry, Industrial dynamics, Industrial growth, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, innovation practices in food and beverage, Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114705&r=tra |
| By: | Buncic, Daniel; Martin, Melecky |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materialising credit risk. We apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential Supervision; Stress Test; Individual Bank Data; Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | E58 G28 G21 |
| Date: | 2011–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33927&r=tra |
| By: | Fritzsch, Jana |
| Abstract: | European politicians encourage the income diversification of rural households through various measures. Although being aware of farm householdsâ potential for non-farm income diversification seems important for finely-targeting such policy measures, no attempt has thus far been made to summarise the various determinants of income diversification in a single figure. This contribution aims to close this gap. A composite fuzzy indicator that measures farm household potential for non-farm income diversification is developed and applied to 1,053 farm households in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia. The indicator summarises the incentives of and capacities for non-farm income diversification on the individual household member level, and on the household and regional levels to a single measure using fuzzy logic methodology. The composite fuzzy indicator performs well, and the results for the single farm households can easily be retraced. The indicator not only singles out the households that have the poten-tial for non-farm income diversification, but also shows the reasons for this. Thus, the result for 1,053 farm households is not only that most of them have a high potential for non-farm income diversification, but also that the majority of these households are pushed in diversifi-cation due to the smallness of their farms. Only a few of the farm households act under pull conditions, i.e. diversification is not a necessity, but they could opt for profitable non-farm employment due to favourable age, education, and regional conditions. Decision-makers could utilise the composite fuzzy indicator to finely-target diversification measures to the multifaceted conditions of farm households. |
| Keywords: | composite indicator, fuzzy logic, rural non-farm income diversification, transition countries, Consumer/Household Economics, C65, J24, Q12, R23, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114349&r=tra |
| By: | Falkowski, Jan |
| Abstract: | The âLEADER community initiativesâ and the âLEADER approachâ have been commonly accepted as an innovative way for development of rural areas in the EU. It is widely assumed that promoting growth in rural areas can be achieved through partnerships between representatives of three classes of local actors: civil society, public administration and private/economic sector. While these partnerships certainly have the potential to improve coordination mechanisms that manage local resources, their existence is likely to have an impact on the distribution of political advantages and future economic rents of current incumbents. What follows, it is reasonable to assume that local political elites may either block or impede the adoption of this institutional innovation. This paper investigates these issues using the Pilot Programme LEADER+ experiences in Poland. The focus is on institutional aspects that are thought to affect the electoral process. Consistent with a large body of political economy literature, our results suggest that LEADER-type partnerships are more likely to occur in an environment where holding politicians to account is easier. |
| Keywords: | political accountability, local government, rural development, Leader, Community/Rural/Urban Development, D72, D78, H77, O18, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114365&r=tra |
| By: | Yu, Lu; Wang, Xiaoxi |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on factors influencing grassland lease, which will contribute to the heated debate about land use in China by extending to more extensive and vulnerable grassland regions. Based on review of grassland institutional change and analysis of data from 12 villages, this paper examines the impact of variables such as grassland property rights, grazing policies and physical attributes of actors on grassland lease. This paper also draws attention to widely existed illegal grazing and the implementation of grazing quota, as well as their impact on grassland lease and governance. |
| Keywords: | Land Use, Land Ownership and Tenure, Grassland lease, China, Landnutzen, Landbesitz, Graslandleasing, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi11:114521&r=tra |
| By: | Sergey Paltsev |
| Abstract: | Recent increases in natural gas reserve estimates and advances in shale gas technology make natural gas a fuel with good prospects to serve a bridge to a low-carbon world. Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world largest natural gas reserves and it is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Energy was one of the driving forces of Russia’s recent economic recovery from the economic collapse of 1990s. These prospects have changed drastically with a global recession and the collapse of oil and gas prices from their peaks of 2008. An additional factor is an ongoing surge in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and a development of Central Asia’s and the Middle East gas supplies that can compete with Russian gas in its traditional (European) and potential (Asian) markets. To study the long-term prospects for Russian natural gas, we employ the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. While we consider the updated reserve estimates for all world regions, in this paper we focus on the results for Russian natural gas trade. The role of natural gas is explored in the context of several policy assumptions: with no greenhouse gas mitigation policy and scenarios of emissions targets in developed countries. Scenarios where Europe takes on an even more restrictive target of 80 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions relative to 2005 by 2050 and reduces its nuclearbased generation are also considered. Asian markets become increasingly important for natural gas exports and several scenarios about their potential development are considered. We found that over the next 20-40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 10-12 Tcf in 2030 and 15-18 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to 30 percent by 2030 and more than 50 percent in 2050. Patterns of international gas trade show increased flows to the Asian region from the Middle East, Central Asia, Australia and Russia. Europe’s reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mee:wpaper:1112&r=tra |
| By: | Gaetano D’Adamo (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries during the period 2000-2010. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers, as well as the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, suggest that the internationally traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with sheltered and public sector wages adjusting. Using a Cointegrated VAR approach we show that a large heterogeneity across countries is present, and non-traded and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination or at least affect traded sector wages in the short run. In some countries, public sector wages are weakly exogenous, with the private sectors adjusting. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector and thus the catching-up process may be accompanied by accumulation of large international imbalances. |
| Keywords: | Cointegrated VAR, wage setting, public sector |
| JEL: | C32 E62 J31 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:1122&r=tra |
| By: | Van Herck, Kristine |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114829&r=tra |
| By: | Jia, Lili; Petrick, Martin |
| Abstract: | Research on agricultural development in China has increasingly paid attention to the potentially negative effects of highly fragmented farm structures. This study provides a deeper theoretical understanding of the linkages between land fragmentation and off-farm labor supply and investigates this relationship empirically in a more direct and robust way than in the existing literature. Drawing upon a rural household panel dataset collected in Zhejiang, Hubei and Yunnan provinces from 1995-2002, we estimate the effects in two steps. First, we estimate the effect of land fragmentation on labor productivity using a time-demeaned translog production function. Second, we estimate the effect of land fragmentation on off-farm labor supply using Wooldridgeâs (1995) panel data sample selection model. The production function results show that land fragmentation indeed leads to lower agricultural labor productivity. It implies that land consolidation will make on-farm work more attractive and thus decrease off-farm labor supply. This conclusion is supported by a direct estimation of the off-farm labor supply function, but only for the group of farmers with the least involvement in off-farm labor. Our analysis suggests that, if more liberal land market policies and hardened property rights will allow more consolidated farmland in the future, this will not trigger a flood of former farmers leaving rural areas in search for alternative incomes. As it makes farm work more productive, it will rather provide an incentive to continue farming and raise agricultural productivity. |
| Keywords: | Land fragmentation, off-farm, labor supply, China, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi11:114522&r=tra |
| By: | Marquardt, Doris; Hubbard, Carmen |
| Abstract: | The establishment of National Rural Networks is a requisite for all EU member states following adoption of the 2005 Rural Development Regulation. Although networking, particularly in the form of exchanging experience and/or establishing partnerships, is not a novelty, the setting up of national rural networks is envisaged by policy makers in Brussels as an instrument that will enhance the effectiveness of rural development policy across the Community. However, the implementation of such an instrument represents a challenge for the new member states. This is particularly the case for Romania, where experience with networking is sparse. Building on a survey of network members in Romania, this paper identifies major challenges for the actors involved and explores the potential for networking in that country. Findings show that Romaniaâs NRN faces difficulties in exploiting the benefits that ânetworkingâ theoretically offers. For Romania, where administration and beneficiaries lack experience and capacities, and where the policy delivery process needs to be improved, the potential technical assistance through the NRN is likely to have a significant impact, but there is a long way to go. Keys for successful implementation are clearly defined endogenously grown objectives, sufficient communication and the political will. |
| Keywords: | National Rural Network, Romania, Rural Development, Policy instrument, EU, Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114369&r=tra |
| By: | Hahlbrock, Konstantin; Hockmann, Heinrich |
| Abstract: | The impact of group affiliation to agroholdings on enterprise performance in terms of productivity and efficiency is controversially discussed in the literature. However, only few papers evaluate the effects of group membership on the productivity and efficiency of agricultural enterprises in Russia. The underlying research question of this paper is therefore whether farms that belong to agroholdings perform better than independent farms. We calculate partial land and labor productivity, total factor productivity (TFP) and technical efficiency scores for the two categories of independent farms and members of agroholdings. In this paper a production function approach is estimated in the framework of stochastic frontier analysis. The results are used to decompose TFP into a technological change effect and a technical efficiency effect. The results show a different trend than observed in previous studies. We show that the growth of agroholdingsâ TFP exceeds by far the development of the TFP of independent farms and that group affiliation has a positive impact on the performance of farms. |
| Keywords: | Agroholding, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Efficiency, Total Factor Productivity, Russia, Agroholding, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Effizienz, Total Factor Productivity, Russland, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi11:114508&r=tra |
| By: | Wolz, Axel |
| Abstract: | With the collapse of the socialist regime in East Germany in late 1989 and the rising political call for unification in early 1990, a deep change of the institutional structure became necessary. The (agricultural) administration had to be totally restructured. This referred not only to substance, functions and tasks which had to be adjusted â similar to all other transition economies - to the market-economic and pluralistic democratic system, but also the whole administrative set-up had to be re-established in line with the West German system. Hence, a new administrative system had to be built up from scratch in the East, while the socialist one had to be dismantled in a short period. Overall, this institutional change seems to have been accomplished successfully as billions of Deutsch Mark could be processed by the agricultural administration in 1990 in order to avoid an imminent collapse of the agricultural sector. This administrative transformation was characterised by few rules, but a âpioneer spiritâ among the staff involved which allowed a large degree of liberty in decision-making. The staff had to improvise and act pragmatically in order to get the tasks accomplished |
| Keywords: | transition, agricultural administration, unification, Germany, Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:115769&r=tra |
| By: | Banai, Adam; Kiraly, Julia; Nagy, Marton |
| Abstract: | In Hungary in the pre-crisis period, the bank sector-initiated private credit boom significantly contributed to the accumulation of economic imbalances. Nevertheless, before the 2008 crisis no special regulatory measure was taken to mitigate the foreign exchange lending to unhedged borrowers, which was a main moving force of the credit boom. Depreciation of forint-denominated subsidized housing loans and the increased risk premium significantly deteriorated customers'positions and resulted in rocketing nonperforming loans. A recession, deteriorating portfolios, and lack of efficient workout. The introduction of strict regulation froze banking activity and the danger of recovery without lending emerged. This paper compares the pre- and post-crisis lending activity and analyzes the lack of regulation in the pre-crisis period and the inefficient regulation in the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2011–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5836&r=tra |
| By: | Ferto, Imre; Fogarasi, Jozsef |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of exchange rate volatility and of the institutional quality on international trade flows of transition economies in Central European Countries by applying a gravity model of balance panel between 1999 and 2008. The results show that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a significant negative effect on trade by applying Psuedo- Maximum-Likelihood (PML) estimator method over this period. The institutional quality need to be improved in case of size of government and the quality of regulation. The negative effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports suggests that joining Central European Countries to the euro zone can reduce the negative effects of exchange rate volatility on trade. |
| Keywords: | international trade, gravity model, exchange rate volatility, institutions, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114351&r=tra |
| By: | Perrea, Toula; Grunert, Klaus G.; Krystallis, Athanasios; Zhou, Yanfeng |
| Abstract: | Green food is perceived by Chinese consumers as environmentally friendly and safe to consume. Through a hierarchical values-attitudes model, the paper examines the degree to which attitudes towards green food is determined by consumersâ values and their general attitudes towards environment and nature and technological progress. The link between collectivism, attitudes towards environment and nature, and attitudes towards green food is the strongest link of the hierarchical model. However, collectivism also influences attitudes towards technological progress, which in turn influence attitudes towards green food. This finding, coupled with the lack of significant relationship between individualism and attitudes towards technological progress point towards the conclusion that the belief of Chinese people that technology is a positive determinant of food safety and environmental friendliness in food production steams from altruistic predispositions, which in turn influence (positively) Chinese consumersâ attitudes towards technology. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114765&r=tra |
| By: | Basak Kus (School of Politics and International Relations, Geary Institute, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Analyzing data from 20 OECD countries over the period of 1995-2007, the present article investigates whether the factors that contributed to households’ consumption opportunities have had any impact on the way governments in advanced societies respond to income inequalities. In addressing this question, the article particularly focuses on access to credit, and low-wage imports, from China in particular, as two mechanisms that have contributed to an increase in household consumption opportunities. The results show a highly significant inverse relation between these two factors and social welfare effort. As imports from China and availability of credit increase, the social welfare effort seems to decrease. These findings prompt us to think beyond the established arguments about progressive politics in the neoliberal era. The article also contributes to the burgeoning literature on the political and social implications of credit expansion, and of the rise of China in world trade. |
| Date: | 2011–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201124&r=tra |
| By: | Cechura, Lukas; Hockmann, Heinrich |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114314&r=tra |
| By: | Hahlbrock, Konstantin; Hockmann, Heinrich |
| Abstract: | The impact of group affiliation to agroholdings on enterprise performance in terms of productivity and efficiency is controversially discussed in the literature. However, only few papers evaluate the effects of group membership on the productivity and the efficiency of agricultural enterprises in Russia. The underlying research question of this paper is therefore whether farms that belong to agroholdings perform better than independent farms. We calculate partial land and labor productivity, total factor productivity and technical efficiency scores for the two categories of independent farms and members of agroholdings. In this paper a production function approach is estimated in the framework of stochastic frontier analysis. The results are used to decompose total factor productivity into a scale effect, a technological change effect and a technical efficiency effect. The results show a different trend than observed in previous studies. The growth of agroholdings total factor productivity exceeds by far the development of the independent farms and that group affiliation has a positive impact on the performance of the farm. |
| Keywords: | Agroholding, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Efficiency, Total Factor Productivity, Russia, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114579&r=tra |
| By: | Ferto, Imre; Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan; Bojnec, Stefan; Latruffe, Laure |
| Abstract: | The article investigates the investment and financial constraints for French, Hungarian and Slovenian farms using FADN panel data with different econometric estimation approaches. Farm gross investment is positively associated with real sales growth and cash flow implying the absence of soft budget constraint. Gross farm investment is positively associated with investment subsidies. Specific results by country are found depending on farm indebtedness. Investment subsidies can mitigate some capital market imperfections in short-term, while on long-term what is crucial is farm sale ability to successfully compete in the output market gaining sufficient cash flow for farm competitive survival and investment. |
| Keywords: | farm investment, soft budget constraint, investment subsidy, panel data analysis, Agricultural Finance, D81, D92, O12, Q12, C23, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114357&r=tra |
| By: | Fernando Alexandre (Universidade do Minho - NIPE); Carmen Mendes (Universidade de Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | A highly successful investment- and export-led growth strategy has positioned China as the second largest economy and as the largest exporter in the world. Households' consumption has played a minor role in its growth strategy, which is reflected in its unique and very high saving rates. In this paper we argue that the low weight of consumption in total expenditure is the result of the pervasiveness of the state in the economy, which aimed at impairing the growth of middle classes and,therefore, at preserving political stability. Nonetheless, an increase in purchasing power and the cultural individualisation of vast portions of the population is leading to an increase in popular mobilisation and social unrest. This indicates that, contrary to common pessimist analyses, prospects for democratization are perhaps stronger than usually presumed. |
| Keywords: | China, growth, savings, financial markets, political stability |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:28/2011&r=tra |