nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2010‒10‒23
27 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
Heriot-Watt University

  1. European Transition at Twenty By Berglöf, Erik; Bruynooghe, Lise; Harmgart, Heike; Sanfey, Peter; Schweiger, Helena; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin
  2. Economic Transition, Firm Organization, and Internal Control Determinants of Audit Structure in Russian firms By Iwasaki, Ichiro
  3. Economic Growth and Transition in Vietnam and China and its Consequences for their Agricultural Sectors: Policy and Agricultural Adjustment Issues By Tisdell, Clem
  4. Sources of exchange rate dynamics in the European transition economies By Mirdala, Rajmund
  5. The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Business Activity: A Survey of Firms in the People's Republic of China By Yunling Zhang
  6. Fiscal Policy, Regional Disparity and Poverty in China: a General Equilibrium Approach By Li Wang; Xuesong Li; Wenbo Wang; Zhou Guangbao
  7. Appreciating the Renminbi By Rod Tyers; Ying Zhang
  8. Booms and busts in China's stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals By Gabe J. de Bondt; Tuomas A. Peltonen; Daniel Santabárbara
  9. Social Identity and Inequality: The Impact of China's Hokou System By Farzana Afridi; Sherry Xin Li; Yufei Ren
  10. Anatomy of cluster development in China: The case of health biotech clusters By Conlé, Marcus; Taube, Markus
  11. Is human capital relevant in attracting innovative FDI to China? By Wei Heyuan; Aurora A.C. Teixeira
  12. Global Production Networks and the People’s Republic of China’s Processing Trade By Alyson C. Ma; Ari Van Assche; Chang Hong
  13. Social Capital and Access to Bank Financing: The Case of Chinese Entrepreneurs By Oleksandr Talavera; Lin Xiong; Xiong Xiong
  14. The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Business Activity: A Survey of Firms in the People's Republic of China By Zhang, Yunling
  15. Financial Crisis, Trade Finance, and SMEs: Case of Central Asia By Gloria O. Pasadilla
  16. Multinational Companies and Labour Relations in Hungary: between Home Country - Host Country Effects and Global Tendencies By Jeno Koltay
  17. Toward Efficient Urban Form in China By Webster, Douglas; Bertaud, Alain; Jianming,Cai; Zhenshan, Yang
  18. The Evolution of the Market of the Hungarian Printing Industry after 1989:The End of a Success Story? By Mihaly Laki
  19. Institutional Reactions to the Impact of Global Crisis at Source and Destination Cities of Migration in China By Maria Csanadi
  20. Persistent anti-market culture: A legacy of the Pale of Settlement and of the holocaust By Irena Grosfeld; Alexander Rodnyansky; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
  21. Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on Small and Medium Enterprises in the People’s Republic of China By Xiangfeng Liu
  22. Checking The Efficiency of The Social Assistance System in Poland By Adam Szulc
  23. Structural Policy Challenges in Slovakia By Martin Filko; Stefan Kiss; Ludovit Odor; Matej Siskovic
  24. Poverty and inequality maps for rural Vietnam: an application of small area estimation By Cuong, Nguyen Viet; Truong, Tran Ngoc; van der Weide, Roy
  25. Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus By Pietro Cova; Massimiliano Pisani; Alessandro Rebucci
  26. Estimation of an open economy DSGE model for Romania. Do nominal and real frictions matter? By Veaceslav Grigoras
  27. Change in Social Capital – a Case Study of Collective Rice Farming Practice in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam By Le, Anh Tuan

  1. By: Berglöf, Erik; Bruynooghe, Lise; Harmgart, Heike; Sanfey, Peter; Schweiger, Helena; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin
    Abstract: This study gauges the status of transition in the formerly centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, using a broad approach that compares countries with respect to their business environment, competition, and managerial practices; and assesses transition progress at the level of 13 economic sectors. The largest transition gaps remain in Central Asia and some Eastern European and Western Balkans countries. However, significant reform needs also remain in some Central European and Baltic countries, particularly in energy efficiency, transport, and in the financial sector where regulatory regimes require strengthening and local capital markets need to be developed.
    Keywords: transition, economic reform, managerial practices, competition, business environment
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro
    Abstract: With a unique dataset of joint-stock companies, this paper aims to thoroughly describe the corporate audit structure in transition Russia and empirically analyze its determinants. When compared to the international standard, Russian firms have a weak audit structure in terms of the independence and expertise of the board of auditors and the accounting auditor. We found that board composition, affiliation with a business group, and presence of foreign investors are the most important factors determining the audit structure of Russian firms. The scope of the impact of these three factors, however, differed considerably with each other. We also found that government ownership, company size, fund procurement activities, and overseas advancement also have statistically significant impacts on the corporate audit structure in Russia.
    Keywords: audit structure, board composition, business integration, foreign investment, economic transition, Russia
    JEL: G34 K22 L22 M42 P31 P34
    Date: 2010–09
  3. By: Tisdell, Clem
    Abstract: Secondary data are used to discuss and compare the consequences for agriculture of economic growth and transition in Vietnam and China. It is found that China and Vietnam have experienced similar adjustments in their agricultural sectors and face at this time, similar agricultural policy problems. China began its economic reforms in 1979 and Vietnam followed in 1986. Since then both countries have experienced rapid economic growth, falling poverty rates and significant rises in per capita income. At the same time, substantial restructuring of their economies has occurred, a feature of which has been a decline in the relative contribution of agriculture to total employment and output. These changes are outlined. Significant changes have also occurred within the agricultural sectors of China and Vietnam and these are reviewed. In both countries, the livestock sector has grown in relative importance. Households are the main contributors to agricultural production but their individual holdings of land are small by Western standards and households keeping livestock mostly only hold a few head. Given the exit of farmers from agriculture, pressures are mounting for increasing the size of agricultural units. This exit can add to economic efficiency and growth. Policies to facilitate movements from farm to non-farm employment are discussed and analysed. Property rights and the marketability of agricultural land can facilitate such movements and contribute to economic efficiency. In recent times, China and Vietnam have extended property rights in agricultural land and have increased its marketability. These measures are outlined. With further economic development and transition, it is predicted that these rights and the marketability of agricultural land will be further extended. However, if previous practice is followed, those policy changes are likely to be gradual.
    Keywords: Agricultural development, Asia, China, economic transition, farm employment, land reforms, land rights, livestock, non-farm employment, structural change., Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, O25, O5, P32, Q1,
    Date: 2010–09
  4. By: Mirdala, Rajmund
    Abstract: Exchange rates in the European transition economies are currently exposed to the exogenous shocks as a result of higher uncertainty on the foreign exchange markets related to the various kinds of world economic crisis implications. Higher vulnerability of exchange rates of these countries to the exogenous shocks reflects decreased confidence of financial markets to the recovery process as well as an ability of the governments to sustain persisting fiscal pressures leading to higher fiscal deficits and public debt. Another issue that emphasizes the role of exogenous shocks in determining the exchange rate development in the European transition economies is the ability of national central banks to perform “suitable” monetary policy that would be able to support the recovery process in these economies while still being able to protect exchange rate of the national currency against speculative attacks and to keep exchange rate stable in the medium term horizon. In the paper we analyze the sources of exchange rate movements in the European transition economies (Bulgaria, the Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania) in the period 2000-2009 using SVAR (structural vector autoregression) approach applied on each country individual data as well as panel data. We decompose the variability of NEER and REER in these countries to permanent and temporary shocks. Impulse-response functions are also computed in order to estimate the behaviour of NEER and REER after structural one standard deviation innovations. The relevant outcomes of the analysis we compare with the results of the tests for the whole euro area (represented here by old EU member countries - EU-12 group). This approach helps us to understand the common as well as differing features of NEER and REER determination in the European transition economies and the old EU member countries.
    Keywords: exchange rates; exogenous shocks; structural vector autoregression; variance decomposition; impulse-response function; panel data analysis
    JEL: C32 E52
    Date: 2010–05
  5. By: Yunling Zhang
    Abstract: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major player in the global economy and considers free trade agreements (FTAs) an important part of its global trading strategy. The PRC’s export industries are embedded in existing regional and global production networks and are reliant on foreign direct investment flows and external supplies of material and intermediate goods. Immediately after its accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, the PRC adopted a regional approach to trade and began negotiating and implementing FTAs. This paper analyzes the results of a survey undertaken across 232 Chinese firms with regard to FTA-related issues such as utilization, perceived costs and benefits, perceptions of multiple rules of origin, and policy and institutional support mechanisms. It was found that, of the firms surveyed, 45% were using FTAs to some extent. While this utilization rate appears relatively high, and reflects the assertive stance of Chinese firms when it comes to exploring market opportunities, the actual coverage of export value by FTAs is variable. In general, Chinese firms view FTAs as a way to increase their access to partner markets. [ADBI Working Paper 251]
    Keywords: Republic, China, global trading strategy, export industries, support mechanisms, markets
    Date: 2010
  6. By: Li Wang; Xuesong Li; Wenbo Wang; Zhou Guangbao
    Abstract: The main objective of this research is to analyze the effects of the fiscal dimension of China’s government transfer and preferential tax policy on regional income disparity and poverty reduction. Using a computable general equilibrium model with a three-region component, we find that the preferential tax policy on the eastern coastal region of China has a significant effect on household income, as well as on the FGT indicator. The simulation results suggest that tax policy is a more effective tool to counter against China’s regional disparity than government transfer.
    Keywords: China, Regional Disparity, Fiscal Policy, Government Transfer, Preferential Policy, Poverty, CGE, FGT
    JEL: D58 R13 H24 H32 H53
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Rod Tyers; Ying Zhang
    Abstract: International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with an underlying real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, which sees growth as stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity and associated rises in wages and non-traded prices. Yet, despite extraordinary growth after the mid-1990s China’s real exchange rate showed no tendency to appreciate until after 2004. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the economy and show that, during this period, trade reforms and a rising national saving rate were offsetting forces in the presence of elastic labour supply. We then examine the possible determinants of the striking transition to real appreciation thereafter, noting mounting evidence that an improved rural terms of trade has tightened China’s labour market. We show that, should the Chinese government bow to international pressure by appreciating the renminbi either via an extraordinary monetary contraction or via export disincentives the consequences would be harmful for both Chinese and global interests.
    JEL: C68 C53 E27 F21 F43 F47 O11
    Date: 2010–10
  8. By: Gabe J. de Bondt (European Central Bank); Tuomas A. Peltonen (European Central Bank); Daniel Santabárbara (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This paper empirically models China's stock prices using conventional fundamentals: corporate earnings, risk-free interest rate, and a proxy for equity risk premium. It uses the estimated long-run stock price misalignments to date booms and busts, and analyses equity market reforms and excess liquidity as potential drivers of these stock price misalignments. Our results show that China's equity prices can be reasonable well modelled using fundamentals, but that various booms and busts can be identified. Policy actions, either taking the form of deposit rate changes, equity market reforms or excess liquidity, seem to have significantly contributed to these misalignments.
    Keywords: China, Stock price, Equity market, Reforms, Liquidity
    JEL: G12 G18
    Date: 2010–10
  9. By: Farzana Afridi; Sherry Xin Li; Yufei Ren
    Abstract: They conduct an experimental study to investigate the causal impact of social identity on individuals' response to economic incentives. They focus on China‟s decades old household registration system, or the hukou institution, which categorizes citizens into urban and rural residents, and favors the former over the latter in resource allocation. Their results indicate that making individuals' hukou status salient and public significantly reduces the performance of rural migrant students on an incentivized cognitive task by 10 percent. This leads to a leftward shift of their earnings distribution – the proportion of rural migrants below the 25th earnings percentile increases significantly by almost 19 percentage points. [Working Paper No. 190]
    Keywords: social identity, hukou, inequality, field experiment, China
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Conlé, Marcus; Taube, Markus
    Abstract: Focussing on China's health biotech clusters the study explores the anatomy of interaction in as well as between various clusters. While the literature has identified the existence of a dense network of durable interactions among firms and between firms and academia at a particular location as one of the most important prerequisites for well-performing clusters, we show that network ties extending beyond regional boundaries are equally valuable for the innovative capacity of China's biotech firms. Analysing the demographic process of cluster emergence we show that there exist different types of biotech clusters in China, which are closely linked and exchange knowledge and technology amongst each other. It appears as if further analysis of these cross-cluster links may provide important insights of how learning and innovation works in China's health biotech industry. Although China's science parks and industrial bases may on an individual basis appear to be badly structured, the organization of China's health biotech industry turns out to be substantially enhanced once these external linkages are taken into consideration. --
    Keywords: China,health biotechnology,cluster,entrepreneurship,localization
    Date: 2010
  11. By: Wei Heyuan (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto); Aurora A.C. Teixeira (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto; INESC Porto; OBEGEF)
    Abstract: The impact of human capital on foreign direct investment (FDI) has been assessed in an essentially descriptive manner. In general, most quantitative studies focus on the macroeconomic level, that is, the level of countries. Microeconomic studies, with firms as the unit of analysis, are scarce internationally and even more so in the case of China. Based on a survey performed on several innovative firms in China, this study assesses the importance of human capital in attracting FDI to China, and estimates is corresponding impact. This impact is analyzed based not only on the direct, but also the indirect effects of human capital, through the firms’ Research and Development (R&D) efforts and contacts with universities. Using a sample of 77 firms, and considering two proxies for human capital (general and specific), we concluded that even though human capital does not constitute a direct factor in attracting FDI to China, it is a positive indirect factor by way of R&D efforts. We have also established that knowledge infrastructures (universities) and physical infrastructures (transport network) comprise important factors to attract FDI.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Human Capital; Research and Development (R&D); China
    Date: 2010–10
  12. By: Alyson C. Ma; Ari Van Assche; Chang Hong
    Abstract: This paper unveils a systematic pattern in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) processing trade. In a cross-section of the PRC’s provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated with the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three- country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced economies. [ADBI Working Paper 175]
    Keywords: People’s Republic of China, imports, industry-equilibrium, model, advanced, economies
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Oleksandr Talavera (School of Economics, University of East Anglia); Lin Xiong (Robert Gordon University); Xiong Xiong (University of Tianjin)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of social capital on access to bank financing. Based on a Chinese nationwide survey our analysis suggests that entrepreneurs who spend more time on social activities are more likely to obtain a loan from commercial banks. In addition, we find that membership of political parties is an important determinant of state bank financing. Finally, our data reveals some evidence of substitutability between various types of social capital. To get a loan from a specific type of bank, an entrepreneur should access the relevant social network. The results of our analysis are robust to a number of specification checks.
    Keywords: China, social capital, entrepreneurs
    JEL: G21 L26
    Date: 2010–10–12
  14. By: Zhang, Yunling (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major player in the global economy and considers free trade agreements (FTAs) an important part of its global trading strategy. The PRC’s export industries are embedded in existing regional and global production networks and are reliant on foreign direct investment flows and external supplies of material and intermediate goods. Immediately after its accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, the PRC adopted a regional approach to trade and began negotiating and implementing FTAs. This paper analyzes the results of a survey undertaken across 232 Chinese firms with regard to FTA-related issues such as utilization, perceived costs and benefits, perceptions of multiple rules of origin, and policy and institutional support mechanisms. It was found that, of the firms surveyed, 45% were using FTAs to some extent. While this utilization rate appears relatively high, and reflects the assertive stance of Chinese firms when it comes to exploring market opportunities, the actual coverage of export value by FTAs is variable. In general, Chinese firms view FTAs as a way to increase their access to partner markets. Nevertheless, there remains an orientation toward the United States and other traditional markets. However, over time, as rebalancing of growth takes place, there may be a shift in market orientation toward the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and regional markets and the use of FTAs may intensify. This study offers several proposals to increase FTA use, including the expansion of support services for firms, the promotion of larger regional FTAs, and the creation of more opportunities for collaboration between the government and the private sector.
    Keywords: chinese firm survey; free trade agreement; utilization
    JEL: F10 F15 O24
    Date: 2010–10–12
  15. By: Gloria O. Pasadilla
    Abstract: This paper surveys studies of the importance of Central Asian small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in the economy and their experience during the Russian financial crisis. It also uses survey data from the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys to infer noteworthy characteristics, features, and dependencies on financing of Central Asian SMEs and, consequently, derive the potential impact of the crisis on the sector. The paper also assesses government support for SMEs and the necessary market reforms that will give a boost to the sector’s development in the region. [ADBI Working Paper 187]
    Keywords: Central Asian, medium-sized enterprises (SME), Russian, Environment, Enterprise Performance Surveys
    Date: 2010
  16. By: Jeno Koltay (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper will approach the role of multinational companies (MNCs) in shaping Hungarian labour relations in a broader context. Departing from an overview of macroeconomic developments of the last two decades, all levels and aspects of labour relations, actors, strategies, institutions and practices will be examined in order to grasp Hungarian specifics against features common to new EU members in Central and Eastern Europe. A closer look at the underlying macroeconomic framework will help to highlight how in an early transforming, small and open economy incoming FDI and MNCs affect the system of industrial relations which in turn becomes one of the coordination mechanisms differentiating economic and political regimes of old and new market economies. In evaluating the impact of MNCs on Hungarian employment relations home country and host country effects as well as global tendencies will be considered within the 'vehicle of change' and the 'outpost test department' extremes.
    Keywords: labour relations, multinational companies, collective agreements, informal bargaining, tripartism, social dialogue, Hungary
    JEL: F23 J51 J52 J53 J83 M12 M54
    Date: 2010–07
  17. By: Webster, Douglas; Bertaud, Alain; Jianming,Cai; Zhenshan, Yang
    Abstract: Land efficiency in urban China is examined, using Tianjin as a case study, from the perspective of agricultural land conservation; reduction in energy use, conventional pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions; and human time savings. Issues addressed include increased scatter on the periphery, over-consumption of industrial land, over fiscal dependence on land sales, and loss of valuable agricultural and environmental services land. Policy implications discussed include the need for greater variation in urban densities (leveraging already high densities in urban China – one-third the global median), less broad-brush agricultural land conservation policies, higher floor area ratios near rapid transit stations, etc.
    Keywords: China, land conversion, land efficiency, land use policy, urban density
    Date: 2010
  18. By: Mihaly Laki (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This article examines a case study of one industry in order to explore the factors influencing changing performance levels in the industries of post-socialist economies. It explores the influence on industrial performance of a number of once-only non-repetitive factors of market development that were typical of the transition period and compares them with longer term aspects of the market economy. The case that we discuss here is the development of the market for products of the Hungarian printing industry since the late 1980s. During the transition phase, privatisation, deregulation, the abolition of administrative distribution, and radical cuts in subsidies were all among the factors affecting this industry. Its supply chains also changed radically. However, these lost their importance after the transition had been completed and the long term processes of technical development and consumer behaviour became the main determinants of the behaviour of the printing companies.
    Keywords: printing industry, post-socialist economies, transition
    JEL: L11
    Date: 2010–07
  19. By: Maria Csanadi (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper relates on the impact of global crisis on China from a systemic point of view. In what ways external and internal adaptation pressures influenced the transformation of the party-state system in China? Did reactions have an impact on the transformation of political or economic system? The purpose of our small field research was to respond to this question by examining institutional reactions to crisis from late 2008 to late 2009. We have examined the common and disparate characteristics of institutional adaptation at prefecture level at sources and destination cities of migration. We have also tried to detect their common or different sensitivity to crisis analyzing the periods before, during and after the crisis. We shall reflect on the reasons of prevailing political stability despite sudden large unemployment, and substantial economic, social and political impact on the party-state system. The paper uses interviews in 13 prefectures and newspaper analysis of 16 prefectures from mid 2008 to the end of 2009 complemented by available relevant statistical data.
    Keywords: system transformation, global crisis, migration, economic policy reactions,prefectures
    JEL: F5 D78 R58 J08 E24
    Date: 2010–06
  20. By: Irena Grosfeld; Alexander Rodnyansky; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
    Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of the important presence of Jews in Eastern Europe before the Second World War and their disappearance during the Holocaust. The Pale of Settlement, the area which Jewish residents were confined to in the Russian empire is used as a source of exogenous variation in the size of Jewish population before the Second World War. Based on election and survey data, we find that current residents of the Pale (if compared to their counterparts outside the Pale) vote more for socialist anti-market parties, have lower support for market and democracy, are less engaged in entrepreneurship, but exhibit higher levels of trust. At the same time, the Pale has no lasting effects on average consumption, income, and education levels. We show that the effect of the Pale is related to the former presence of Jews rather than the inflow of new migrant population into the formerly-Jewish areas. We suggest two mechanisms behind the effect: the development of persistent anti-market culture and bonding trust among non-Jewish population rooted in ethnic hatred, and the disappearance of the middle class. Regression discontinuity at the Pale border helps identification.
    Date: 2010
  21. By: Xiangfeng Liu
    Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the impacts of the global financial crisis on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It also provides relevant policy suggestions at the end. First, this paper reviews the impacts of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the PRC’s SMEs, evaluating the policy measures for coping with the crisis at that time and summarizing the relevant experiences. Second, it analyzes the impacts of the current global financial crisis on the PRC’s SMEs, focusing the discussion on the causes of and resulting problems from SMEs’ shrinking export markets via reduced export orders, rising operating costs, decreased efficiency, increased shutdowns, sharply rising unemployment, weakened investment confidence, broken lines of funding, and reduced resources. [ADBI Working Paper 180]
    Keywords: conducts, impacts, Asian, financial crisis, confidence
    Date: 2010
  22. By: Adam Szulc (Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: The study examines distribution and impact of the transfers directed by definition to thelow income population (hereafter: the social assistance). During the period observedboth the volume and the number of recipients increased considerably. Those benefits appeared to be fairly effective as a tool preventing the non-poor from falling intopoverty and quite successful in supporting the poor in escaping from poverty. Most of the types of households exposed to higher than average risk of poverty are less likely to be discriminated in receiving social assistance. The analysis of behavioural response confirmed relatively high proportion of foregone income.
    Keywords: poverty, social assistance
    JEL: I32 I38
    Date: 2010
  23. By: Martin Filko (Ministry of Finance of the SR, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University.); Stefan Kiss (Ministry of Finance of the SR); Ludovit Odor (National Bank of Slovakia); Matej Siskovic (Ministry of Finance of the SR)
    Abstract: The paper presents possible approaches for measuring the quality of life together with their strengths and weaknesses. We identify 10 outcome indicators, which could help not only to set targets, but also as a quantitative benchmark for structural policy evaluation in Slovakia. In addition to that we present several case studies with best practices mainly from EU countries. Based on these we formulate 33 structural policy recommendations.
    Keywords: Structural Policies, Outcome Indicators, Well-being, Economic Growth
    JEL: E01 H50 O11 O43
    Date: 2010–04
  24. By: Cuong, Nguyen Viet; Truong, Tran Ngoc; van der Weide, Roy
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to update the small area estimates of poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam. The new estimates of province and district level poverty for the year 2006, when combined with estimates available for 1999, allow for examination of how poverty has changed in rural Vietnam over the past seven years. The analysis finds that all provinces across the country experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999-2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces have also experienced reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with lower levels of inequality in 2006 have seen above average poverty reductions. The authors consider both expenditure and income based measures of poverty and inequality, and find the results to be very similar.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Achieving Shared Growth,Services&Transfers to Poor
    Date: 2010–10–01
  25. By: Pietro Cova; Massimiliano Pisani; Alessandro Rebucci
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of China’s 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on China’s economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus China’s GDP would be 2.6 and 0.6 percentage points lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The effects are stronger under a US dollar peg because of the imported loose monetary policy stance from the United States. Higher Chinese aggregate demand stimulates higher (gross and net) imports from other regions, in particular from Japan and the rest of the world, and, only to a lesser extent, from the United States and the euro area. However, the overall GDP impact of the Chinese stimulus on the rest of the world is limited. These results warn that a fiscal policydriven increase in China’s domestic aggregate demand associated with a more flexible exchange rate regime have only a limited potential to contribute to an orderly resolution of global trade and financial imbalances.
    Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, Financial crisis
    JEL: E62 F41 F42 H30 H63
    Date: 2010–10
  26. By: Veaceslav Grigoras
    Abstract: In this paper we use a medium scale open economy DSGE model developed by Adolfson et al. (2005). Besides authors’ observables we include also one extra observable series (CPI) in the model. Some of the parameters will be calibrated as to match sample’s mean or common values found in literature and others will be etimated on Romania’s data with the help of Bayesian techniques. Next, we specify some alternative scenarios where nominal or real rigidities will be ”turned off” and we asses their importance for the data generating process (with the help of marginal log likelihood).
    Keywords: DSGE
    Date: 2010–10
  27. By: Le, Anh Tuan
    Abstract: This paper describes how the social capital of rice farmers of the Mekong delta of Vietnam - manifested in the tradition of collective farming practice, changed from the 1940s to 1990s. The reason this collective rice farming had existed for decades, irrespective of critical events that challenged its continuation, was the co-existence of two key factors – high need for collective farming to ensure subsistence, and the availability of a closely knit social network that facilitated the exchange of labor. Despite its longevity, the practice of a cohesive and spontaneous collective farming, particularly in terms of labor exchange and labor participation in farming activities, was not maintained under the influence of agrarian reforms which aimed to improve rural livelihood. Land reform resulted in individual rice farming, making mobilization for spontaneous collective action, at the community level quite challenging. The assessment arose in the context of the need to mobilize collective action for implementation of a Community Trap Barrier System (CTBS), an ecologically-based rodent pest management system. It is concluded that successful restoration of social capital in the form of collective farming practices at the field level may depend on government intervention strategies at both local and national policy levels.
    Keywords: social capital; rice; Mekong; farming practice; agrarian reform
    JEL: Z13
    Date: 2010–09–18

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