nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2010‒10‒09
23 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
Heriot-Watt University

  1. China's Overt Economic Rise and Latent Human Capital Investment: Achieving Milestones and Competing for the Top By Constant, Amelie F.; Tien, Bienvenue; Zimmermann, Klaus F.; Meng, Jingzhou
  2. Where to Find Positive Productivity Spillovers from FDI in China: Disaggregated Analysis By Galina Hale; Cheryl Long; Hirotaka Miura
  3. What are the Sources of Financing of the Chinese Firms? By Galina Hale; Cheryl Long
  4. Global Financial Crisis and the Puzzling Exchange Rate Path in CEE Countries By Jesús Crespo Cuaresma; Adam Gersl; Tomáš Slačík
  5. Post-Socialist International Migration: The Case of China-to-South Korea Ethnic Labour Migration By Kim, Anna Myunghee
  6. In Search of a Better Life: The Occupational Attainment of Rural and Urban Migrants in China By Ayako Kondo; Dongshu Ou
  7. The quality of democracy in the Czech Republic By Zdenka Mansfeldová; Petra Rakušanová Guasti
  8. Poverty and firewood consumption : A case study of rural households in northern China By Sylvie Démurger; Martin Fournier
  9. Returns to Education in Four Transition Countries: Quantile Regression Approach By Staneva, Anita; Arabsheibani, Reza; Murphy, Philip D.
  10. Relationship Lending, Firms’ Behaviour and Credit Risk: Evidence from the Czech Republic By Adam Gersl; Petr Jakubík
  11. China : global crisis avoided, robust economic growth sustained By Vincelette, Gallina Andronova; Manoel, Alvaro; Hansson, Ardo; Kuijs, Louis
  12. China-Malaysia’s Trading and Exchange Rate: Complementary or Conflicting Features? By Chan, Tze-Haw; Hooy, Chee-Wooi
  13. Macroprudential stress-testing practices of central banks in central and south eastern Europe : an overview and challenges ahead By Melecky, Martin; Podpiera, Anca Maria
  14. What Drives China's Current Account? By Mathias Hoffmann
  15. The Lasting Impact of Mothers' Fetal Malnutrition on Their Offspring: Evidence from the China Great Leap Forward Famine By Kim, Seonghoon; Deng, Quheng; Fleisher, Belton M.; Li, Shi
  16. Foreign currency borrowing of households in new EU member states By Attila Csajbók; András Hudecz; Bálint Tamási
  17. Poverty in Shenzhen By Stefan Gravemeyer; Thomas Gries; Jinjun Xue
  18. Estimating the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuelson effects in the Polish economy -- a disaggregated approach By Karolina Konopczak; Andrzej Torój
  19. Occupational Choice of Return Migrants in Moldova By Borodak, Daniela; Piracha, Matloob
  20. Regional Entrepreneurial Heritage in a Socialist and a Post-Socialist Economy By Michael Wyrwich
  21. Responses of the Polish economy to demand and supply shocks under alternative fiscal policy rules By Piotr Karp; Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec
  22. The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth By Christopher Garroway; Burcu Hacibedel; Helmut Reisen; Edouard Turkisch
  23. The macroeconomic context of the firms in Romania – benchmarks, evolutions and certain prospective evaluations By TODEROIU, Filon

  1. By: Constant, Amelie F. (DIW DC, George Washington University); Tien, Bienvenue (DIW DC); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University); Meng, Jingzhou (George Washington University)
    Abstract: We provide an overview of China's economic rise through time. Over the past decade, China has maintained 10% growth in GDP, albeit with a GDP per capita at the low level of a developing country. Its tremendous economic development has overlooked the growing social inequalities and rising resentments of the ‘cheap’ workers and those laid off. The main contributor to its ascension is international trade and investment in physical capital, often at the expense of the environment. The year 1978 was the landmark for the foundation of the Chinese modern higher education system. Since then the number of students enrolled in Chinese higher education institutions has increased dramatically; China is producing serious scholars and a tremendous amount of scholarly output; more and more Chinese students seek higher education abroad; and international students find a rising interest in receiving education in China.
    Keywords: China, human capital, brain drain, higher education
    JEL: F22 J24 N35 O15 O24 O53
    Date: 2010–09
  2. By: Galina Hale (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Cheryl Long (Colgate University); Hirotaka Miura (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: Using panel data from Chinese Industrial Surveys of Medium-sized and Large Firms for 2000-06, we show that while there is evidence of positive technological spillovers from FDI, such spillovers are very unevenly distributed. For some industries, there are positive spillovers from FDI presence in the same industry and province, but for others spillovers are negative. There are positive spillovers from FDI presence in upstream and downstream industries, but such spillovers mostly occur in private firms. There are more spillovers from foreign capital that comes from outside the greater China area.
    Keywords: FDI, Spillovers, Forward-Backward Linkages, China
    JEL: L33 F23 O17
    Date: 2010–06
  3. By: Galina Hale (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Cheryl Long (Colgate University)
    Abstract: It appears to be common knowledge that external financing in China is mostly limited to state-owned firms and is hard to obtain for smaller private firms. In this paper we take a closer look at internal and external, formal and informal, financing sources of Chinese firms during the period of rapid economic reform in 1997-2006. To this end we analyze balance-sheet data from Chinese Industrial Surveys of Medium-sized and Large Firms for 2000-2006 and survey data from the Large-Scale Survey of Private Enterprises in China that was conducted in 1997, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006. The following stylized facts emerge from our analysis: (1) State-owned firms continue to enjoy significantly more generous external finances than other types of Chinese firms; (2) Chinese private firms have resorted to various ways to overcome financial constraints, including increasingly more mature informal financial markets, cost-saving through lower inventory and other working capital requirements, and greater reliance on retained earnings; (3) There are substantial variations in financial access among private firms: While the small private firms face more financial constraints, the more established large private firms seem to have access to finances that are more equal to their SOE counterparts; and, (4) There is some evidence that financial access of small private firms, especially to formal bank loans, has improved moderately in the past decade.
    Date: 2010–07
  4. By: Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Adam Gersl (Czech National Bank; Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Tomáš Slačík (European Central Bank)
    Abstract: In the present paper we examine whether financial markets could have helped predict exchange rates in three selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies of the EU, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, during the current financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral densities from the implied volatilities of FX options, which approximate market expectations about exchange rate developments. Based on these risk-neutral density estimates, we then assess the out-of-sample predictive power of indicators. The forecasting results suggest that models based on FX options are inferior to the random walk in terms of the forecasting error, confirming a stylized fact about the short-term forecasting of exchange rates. Yet, we also find that, for the Czech Republic and Poland, risk-neutral densities contain useful information on the direction of change of the exchange rate.
    Keywords: Options, implied volatility, risk-neutral density, exchange rate forecasting, Bayesian model averaging, subprime crisis, emerging markets
    JEL: C11 C32 C53 F37 G14
    Date: 2010–09
  5. By: Kim, Anna Myunghee (IZA)
    Abstract: This paper examines an atypical south-north labour migration that emerged in the post-socialist international migration system: China-to-South Korea ethnic labour migration. Over the past decade, South Korea has experienced an unprecedented increase in the arrival of foreign labour. The majority of workers come from the People's Republic of China. Based on a contextual multivariate analysis of primary survey data on 525 predominantly undocumented Korean Chinese labour migrants in Seoul, this study reveals the underexplored economic dimension of ethnic migration in Northeast Asia. Empirical findings on this source of migrant labour in South Korea demonstrate that the China-to-South Korea ethnic population movement is an important yet an unknown dimension of the post-socialist global migration regime that is marked by the New Economics of international labour migration. The study suggests that ethnic migration from a socialist transition economy to a capital-rich economy linked through ancestral connections must be reconsidered in the context of the changing global migration and demographic landscapes, rather than the ethno-nationally romanticised view of the return of diaspora.
    Keywords: ethnic labour migration, post-socialist global migration regime, new economics of international labour migration
    JEL: J6
    Date: 2010–09
  6. By: Ayako Kondo; Dongshu Ou
    Abstract: This paper investigates the occupational attainment and job mobility of permanent rural-to-urban migrants and compares them with migrants who were born with an urban hukou. Using data from the 2003 China General Social Survey, we examine how much of the gaps in occupational-prestige scores between rural- and urban-born migrants can be explained by differences in observable characteristics up to the time of migration. We find that, with controls for these characteristics, the difference in occupational attainment between rural and urban migrants becomes statistically insignificant or even positive for some subgroups. In contrast, our analysis of job mobility reveals that rural migrants are generally more mobile and also more likely to move to better jobs by changing work units, whereas urban migrants are more likely to be promoted within a work unit.
    Date: 2010–09
  7. By: Zdenka Mansfeldová; Petra Rakušanová Guasti
    Keywords: benchmarking; Czech Republic; democracy; governance; methodological issues; participation; political science
    Date: 2010–08–15
  8. By: Sylvie Démurger (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69003, France; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne, UMR 5824, 93, chemin des Mouilles, Ecully, F-69130, France; ENS-LSH, Lyon, France); Martin Fournier (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69003, France; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne, UMR 5824, 93, chemin des Mouilles, Ecully, F-69130, France; ENS-LSH, Lyon, France)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the determinants of firewood consumption in a poor township in rural northern China, with a special focus on the relationship between households’ economic wealth and firewood consumption. We find strong support for the poverty-environment hypothesis since household economic wealth is a significant and negative determinant of firewood consumption. Firewood can therefore be considered as an inferior good for the whole population in the rural area under study, although further evidence shows that at the top of the wealth distribution, there might be a floor effect in the decreasing firewood consumption. Besides economic wealth, our analysis also shows that the own-price effect is important in explaining firewood consumption behavior, the price effect gaining importance with rising incomes. Finally, increasing education is also found to be a key factor in energy consumption behavior, especially when dealing with energy source switching behavior.
    Keywords: firewood consumption, poverty, natural resources protection, China
    JEL: Q23 Q28 I31 O12 C3
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Staneva, Anita (Swansea University); Arabsheibani, Reza (Swansea University); Murphy, Philip D. (Swansea University)
    Abstract: This paper uses quantile regression techniques to analyze heterogeneous patterns of return to education across the conditional wage distribution in four transition countries. We correct for sample selection bias using a procedure suggested by Buchinsky (2001), which is based on a Newey (1991, 2009) power series expansion. We also examine the empirical implications of allowing for the endogeneity of schooling, using the control function approach proposed by Lee (2007). Using household data from Bulgaria, Russia, Kazakhstan and Serbia in 2003, we show that the return to education is heterogeneous across the earnings distribution. It is also found that accounting for the endogeneity of schooling leads to a higher rate of return to education.
    Keywords: rate of return to education, endogeneity, sample selection, quantile regression
    JEL: C14 I2 J24
    Date: 2010–09
  10. By: Adam Gersl (Czech National Bank; Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Petr Jakubík (European Central Bank; Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper presents the results of an analysis of data on individual bank loans of non-financial corporations in the Czech Republic taken from the CNB’s Central Credit Register. It focuses on the question of how firms obtain financing from domestic banks. The results show that the vast majority of non-financial corporations use the services of just one relationship lender. Small and young firms in technology- and knowledge-intensive industries tend to concentrate their credit needs in a single bank, whereas less creditworthy firms and firms in cyclical industries tend to borrow from more than one bank. The analysis also reveals different behaviour of firms towards financing banks in case of multiple lenders. Finally, the paper shows that the level of credit risk at bank level decreases in line with the extent to which firms applying single relationship lending occur in the bank’s portfolio.
    Keywords: relationship banking; credit risk
    JEL: G21 G32
    Date: 2010–09
  11. By: Vincelette, Gallina Andronova; Manoel, Alvaro; Hansson, Ardo; Kuijs, Louis
    Abstract: This paper explores how the ongoing crisis, the policy responses to it, and the post-crisis global economy will impact China's medium-term prospects for growth, poverty reduction, and development. The paper reviews China's pre-crisis growth experience, including its relationship to global economic developments. It discusses the pace, composition, sources, and financing of growth during 1995-2007, and the impact of key external and domestic influences. The paper also analyzes the immediate impact of the global crisis on China's economic performance in 2009 and its likely impact in the short run. It then discusses the government's policy response, with a particular focus on the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Finally, the paper explores China's medium-term growth prospects in light of the crisis and the key policies for moving to a robust and sustainable growth path post-crisis.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Access to Finance
    Date: 2010–09–01
  12. By: Chan, Tze-Haw; Hooy, Chee-Wooi
    Abstract: Over the last decade, China and Malaysia have committed to export-led growth policy based on maintenance of their undervalued currencies. While both nations have recorded current account surplus and devoted for regional trade integration, it was lately claimed that the Chinese foreign exchange regime poses her as a formidable export competitor and offers further threat to the crowding out of other developing Asian, including Malaysia. Such scenario motivated us to examine the dynamic nexus of exchange rate impact on bilateral export and import flows between China and Malaysia. Our analysis contributed in using high frequency monthly data for the recent period from January 1990 to January 2008, based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing procedure and generalised impulse response analysis. Our empirical findings reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition holds in the long run but only the short run import demands adhere to the potential J-curve pattern. In brief, the study supports for the complementary role of China instead of conflicting (competing) features in the China-Malaysia bilateral trading.
    Keywords: Exchange rates; J-curve; Marshall-Lerner Condition; ARDL Bound Test
    JEL: F10 F31
    Date: 2010–04–06
  13. By: Melecky, Martin; Podpiera, Anca Maria
    Abstract: Stress tests are the main practical tools of macroprudential oversight. This paper reviews the stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and South Eastern Europe (CSEECBs) and outlines the challenges in the area of stress testing going forward. The authors discuss good practice and the applied approaches by CSEECBs focusing on the main components of a typical macroprudential stress test, i.e. constructing the baseline and stress scenarios, mapping macroeconomic scenarios and microeconomic factors to risk factors, calculating risk exposures to different risk indicators, and estimating outcome indicators to inform macroprudential policy. The main challenges for the CSEECBs going forward involve needed improvements in data reliability, consideration of quantitative microprudential indicators in macroprudential stress tests, explicit incorporation of dynamics in stress tests to include reaction functions of banks and macroprudential policy, institutionalization of macroprudential policy responses to alarming stress-test results, use of the top-down and bottom-up stress test results in supervisory communication, cooperation of macroprudential and microprudential supervision, and information exchange for better cross-border supervision of international banking groups.
    Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Emerging Markets,Financial Intermediation
    Date: 2010–09–01
  14. By: Mathias Hoffmann (University of Zurich and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: The paper offers an empirical taxonomy of the factors driving China's current account. A simple present-value model with non-tradeable goods explains more than 70 percent of current account variability over the period 1982-2007, including the persistent surpluses since 2001. Expected increases in the prices of non-tradeables-housing and medical care-are the single most important channel of external adjustment, followed by consumption smoothing. Much of this pattern is driven by a permanent global shock that persistently depresses the world real interest rate and increases the current account, suggesting that shocks to precautionary saving are key in understanding China's surplus. These findings are robust to controlling for revaluation expectations in the fixed exchange rate regime and for measurement error in the current account balance.
    Keywords: China, Current Account, Present-Value Models, External Adjustment, Global Imbalances,Savings Glut, Precautionary Saving
    JEL: F32 F30 F40
    Date: 2010–05
  15. By: Kim, Seonghoon (Ohio State University); Deng, Quheng (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Fleisher, Belton M. (Ohio State University); Li, Shi (Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: We find that second-generation effects of in utero and early childhood malnutrition on the school participation of the offspring of mothers who experienced the China Great Leap Forward Famine. The direct impact on entrance to senior high school is also negative, but smaller in magnitude than that on entrance to junior high school. Given that entering senior high school is contingent on completion of junior high school, the direct impact on entrance to senior high school obviously understates the total impact on the second generation’s accumulation of human capital. Our estimation results are generally robust to IV estimation.
    Keywords: malnutrition, health, schooling, Barker hypothesis, China Famine
    JEL: I12 J16 P36
    Date: 2010–09
  16. By: Attila Csajbók (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); András Hudecz (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); Bálint Tamási (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
    Abstract: The post-Lehman phase of the financial crisis has exposed a number of weaknesses in the banking sectors of the European Union’s New Member States (NMSs). One of these is the prevalence of lending in foreign currency. While banks themselves in these countries have not taken on sizeable currency risk directly, they passed it on to households and the corporate sector. With large depreciations taking place or looming in the region, the currency risk at households and corporates without a natural hedge is now being transformed into credit risk for the banking sector. This is creating a serious problem in maintaining financial stability and cripples monetary policy in countries where it operates primarily through the exchange rate channel. The patterns of foreign currency lending to households in NMSs vary widely both across countries and time periods. For example, FX lending to households is virtually non-existent in the Czech Republic while in some Baltic countries its share is close to 100 per cent of total household lending. The main goal of the paper is (1) to present the stylised facts of pre-crisis FX lending in NMSs systematically and (2) to try to explain these differing patterns in an econometric model. In order to do so, a panel database of household FX borrowing is compiled, covering 10 NMSs in the period 1999-2008. Our estimation results suggest that the degree of household FX borrowing depends on the interest rate differential, the institutional features of mortgage financing and the monetary regime. Household FX borrowing tends to be less prevalent if the interest rate differential is small, fixed interest rate mortgage financing is available and the monetary authority’s “fear of floating” is low.
    Keywords: foreign currency lending, new member states, credit risk, monetary policy
    JEL: E44 E50 G21
    Date: 2010
  17. By: Stefan Gravemeyer (University of Paderborn); Thomas Gries (University of Paderborn); Jinjun Xue (Nagoya University)
    Abstract: The assessment and alleviation of poverty remains an urgent question throughout the globe. Urban poverty, in particular is becoming more prevalent in China due to immense migration in recent years. To what extent is migration related to poverty, and do the factors that drag households into poverty differ between migrants and non-migrants? Do migrants face income discrimination resulting in poverty? Shenzhen, one of the most highly developed cities in mainland China, with unprecedented growth and a huge migrant population and major income inequality, is an especially interesting case. Does everyone participate in the drastically increasing prosperity or are some population groups left behind? We use the 2005 Shenzhen household survey which explicitly includes migrants to investigate these questions. Using new purchasing power parity prices from the World Bank’s International Comparison Project, corrected by a regional expense basket, we estimate poverty in Shenzhen. We find that severe poverty is low in Shenzhen but that relative poverty is significant. We conduct Probit, Tobit and OLS regressions to examine the connections between migratory status and poverty. We find that migrants are much more at risk, and that the causes of poverty differ drastically from those that apply in the case of their non-migrant counterparts. Several of the causes of poverty are social in nature or due to discrimination and will remain a problem for poverty alleviation.
    Keywords: Shenzhen, Poverty, Education
    JEL: O15 O18 I21
    Date: 2010–09
  18. By: Karolina Konopczak (Warsaw School of Economics and Ministry of Finance, Financial Policy, Analysis and Statistics Department); Andrzej Torój (Warsaw School of Economics and Ministry of Finance, Financial Policy, Analysis and Statistics Department)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the magnitude of the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuleson effects in the Polish economy. The purpose of the analysis is to establish to what extent the differential price dynamics in Poland and in the euro area and the real appreciation of PLN against EUR are explained by the differential in respective productivity dynamics. The historical contribution of the Baumol-Bowen effect to Polish inflation rate is estimated at 0.7-1.0 percentage points in the short run. According to estimation results, the Balassa-Samuelson effect contributed around 0.9 to 1.3 percentage point per annum to the rate of relative price growth between Poland and the euro area and 0.9 to 1.6 p.p. to real exchange rate appreciation. Sub-sample calculations and productivity trends over the last decade suggest that this impact should be declining. However, its size is still non-negligible for policymakers in the context of euro adoption in Poland.
    Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, monetary integration, real appreciation, panel cointegration
    JEL: C33 E31 F31 F41
    Date: 2010–09–27
  19. By: Borodak, Daniela (Groupe ESC-Clermont); Piracha, Matloob (University of Kent)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the occupational choice of return migrants. Using the CBSAXA data on different aspects of migration in Moldova, we find that those who stayed illegally in the host country tend to go in wage employment on return to the home country. We also show that relatively better educated tend not be in formal employment, i.e., appear not to participate in the labour market whereas those with relatively lower skills or who obtained worse than expected outcome in the host country are more likely to be wage employed in the home country on return. We discuss intuition of these paradoxical results in the paper.
    Keywords: sample selection, return migration, occupational choice, Moldova
    JEL: C35 F22 J24
    Date: 2010–09
  20. By: Michael Wyrwich
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on regional differences of self-employment in a socialist economy on the eve of its transition toward a market economy and differences with regard to start-up activities after transition. It shows that regions with a long entrepreneurial tradition have higher self-employment rates than regions where these traditions played only a minor role before the introduction of a socialist centrally planned economy. These regions have also higher start-up rates after transition. It seems entirely likely that some regions have a certain entrepreneurial heritage that is an important resource embedded in the region. Even the introduction of socialism did not eradicate or reverse the geography of private sector activity. It is recommended that policy should stimulate and activate region-specific entrepreneurial potentials to attain a sustainable regional development.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurial Culture; Transition
    JEL: L26 P25 R11
    Date: 2010
  21. By: Piotr Karp (University of Lodz and Ministry of Finance, Financial Policy, Analysis and Statistics Department); Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec (Ministry of Finance, Financial Policy, Analysis and Statistics Department)
    Abstract: Recent experiences of many countries during the crisis restored the important dilemma that fiscal policymakers face of how to alleviate the demand contraction while ensuring sustainability of public finances in the long-term.\\ In this paper we study the consequences of the demand and supply shocks for Poland under alternative policy scenarios. Using a macroeconometric model of the Polish economy, we analyse the response of the economy to shocks under several fiscal policy rules. We try to answer the questions which fiscal rule works best in terms of public finance sustainability and business cycle fluctuations stabilization while taking into account the source of shocks to the economy.\\ We found that structural balance rule and expenditure rule act counter-cyclically in the whole simulation period, but at the same time the pace at which they stabilize public debt is quite slow.
    Keywords: fiscal rules, model simulations, demand shocks, supply shocks
    JEL: E17 E37 E62 H30 H62 H63
    Date: 2010–07–30
  22. By: Christopher Garroway; Burcu Hacibedel; Helmut Reisen; Edouard Turkisch
    Abstract: Discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances. This paper aims at filling that gap. It gauges the degree of renminbi (RMB) undervaluation; presents evidence on RMB undervaluation and China’s GDP growth rate; surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate – both its level and its stability over time – for underpinning growth in developing countries, especially in large dual economies such as China and India; finally, the paper presents new evidence on growth linkages between China and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of RMB appreciation. The analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing-country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years.<BR>Les discussions sur la meilleure façon de sortir des déséquilibres mondiaux afin de créer une économie mondiale plus équilibrée ont ignoré l'impact sur les pays pauvres des propositions visant à corriger ces déséquilibres. Le présent document vise à combler ce manque. Il évalue d’abord le degré de sous-évaluation du renminbi (RMB) ; il décrit ensuite les évolutions simultanées du degré de sous-évaluation du RMB et du taux de croissance du PIB chinois ; puis, il passe en revue le rôle du taux de change effectif réel - à la fois son niveau et sa stabilité au cours du temps – dans la croissance des pays en développement, surtout dans les grandes économies duales comme la Chine et l'Inde ; enfin, le document présente de nouvelles analyses sur les liens, au cours des deux dernières décennies, entre la croissance chinoise et celle des pays pauvres et passe en revue la littérature traitant des effets potentiels de l'appréciation du RMB sur la croissance. L'analyse permet d’identifier parmi les pays en développement, les bénéficiaires et perdants potentiels, en fonction de différents scénarios d'ajustement du renminbi dans les prochaines années.
    Keywords: economic growth, purchasing power parity, real effective exchange rates, croissance économique, théorie de la parité de pouvoir d’achat, taux de change effectifs réels
    JEL: F15 F31 O11 O47
    Date: 2010–09
  23. By: TODEROIU, Filon (Institute of Agricultural Economics)
    Abstract: The present paper starts from the theoretical premise according to which the business environment of firms (as macroeconomic entities) is influenced to a greater or less extent by the behaviour of certain essential macroeconomic variables of the market econmies. In this respect, our methodological approach investigates the behaviours of six macroeconomic variables (GDP, prices, inflation, exchange rate, budget and credit), in certain periods for which relevant statistical data are available.
    Keywords: macroeconomic variable; GDP; inflation; exchange rate; budget; credit;
    JEL: B41 E31 G21 H25
    Date: 2010–09

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