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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Havlik, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of Russian economic developments during the period 2000-2007 and analyses key patterns and drivers of the recent economic growth. The growth sustainanbility is addressed as well, in particular with respect to the role played by energy prices and the growing involvement of the state in the economy, including attempts to implement tools of industrial policy and the public-private project financing schemes. Next, the resurgence of Russia as a regional power in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the complicated relations with the European Union (EU) after recent EU enlargements with countries from Central and Eastern Europe are addressed. The paper discusses also prospects for and challenges of the future Russian integration in the European economy and outlines alternative scenarios for a medium-term economic outlook. Finally, the likely policies of the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are briefly discussed as well. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economic growth, energy, European integration, economic forecast |
| JEL: | F15 F5 L52 N1 O11 O5 Q4 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:5&r=tra |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Allegret (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines); Kosta Josifidis (Faculty of Economics Subotica - Novi Sad University); Emilija Beker Pucar (Faculty of Economics Subotica - Novi Sad University) |
| Abstract: | The paper explores (former) transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate targeting; Inflation targeting; Intermediate exchange rate regimes; Monetary transmission channels |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00404729_v1&r=tra |
| By: | Kotov, Denis |
| Abstract: | In the paper we have clarified how the German multinational (MNE) and small and medium sized enterprises (SME) appraise and perform their foreign direct investments in Russia. Our analysis was supported by a survey of German firms running their business in Russia which was made in the period from April to July 2008. In the survey we also asked about the problems and barriers which German companies face when they invest in Russia. Finally, we have presented how the ‘typical’ investment decision process is run in German firms that are going to Russia. German firms start up their operations in Russia by establishing a subsidiary (~80%). All information related to the investment decision is collected mainly internally (~80%). 66% of firms appraise foreign investment using the Discounted Cash Flow technique which incorporates principally macroeconomic factors, such as the expected inflation rate (~70%) and the GDP growth (86%). Institutional factors describing a country’s level of corruption, the quality of governance or economic policy and economic structure risks are generally ignored. One sixth of firms use these indicators only. The expansion is often financed by the parent company (43%) or by German home banks and their Russian subsidiaries. The main obstacles while investing are the weak and changing legislation, frequent tax inspections, complex tax system and corruption. Undeveloped transport infrastructure belongs to the significant barrier as well. However, such factors as language, domestic competition or limited access to the strategic important industries are considered as minor hurdles. Besides this, profit repatriation restrictions are assessed as a moderate problem. In two thirds of cases the expected return on investment has been achieved or even beaten. The key reasons for the failure of investment are overoptimistic market expectations, unsatisfactory qualifications of the domestic personnel, unreliability of business partners and non-accurate market research. |
| Keywords: | Investment Climate; FDI; Germany; Russia; DCF; Investment Valuation |
| JEL: | G31 F21 M21 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16373&r=tra |
| By: | Kuboniwa, Masaaki |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issues of measurement of Russia's dependence on oil and gas as well its attempts for diversification with shift toward a technology-centered economy. It further develops the Russia's input-output system to provide a better understanding of these issues. First, it clarifies the extent of the GDP of the mining (oil and gas) sector in Russia by modifying the original supply and use tables. Second, it provides an analysis of the diversification attempts through development of light automobiles by extending the supply and use tables. Third, it presents an attempt of multi-sectoral growth accounting based on our estimations of capital stock, focusing on the capital and TFP (Total Factor Productivity) contributions to growth. |
| Keywords: | Russia, oil dependence, diversification, input-output, growth accounting |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:18&r=tra |
| By: | Chetvernina, Tatiana |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:16&r=tra |
| By: | Kleiner, Vadim |
| Abstract: | The article shows that a transition from a static to a dynamic analysis of corporate governance changes of the definition of "corporate governance" to include not only relationships between a company and its shareholders, but also company relationships with a variety of other stock market participants. The article analyses corporate governance's level of influence on company efficiency. It also suggests a minimum set of key corporate governance principles, by examining which company meets compliance with most well-known principles of corporate governance. The conclusions are illustrated using case studies of Russian companies. |
| Date: | 2009–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:11&r=tra |
| By: | Guido Cazzavillan (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Krzysztof Olszewski (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari) |
| Abstract: | In this paper skill-biased technological change is linked with endogenous labor supply which allows for unemployment. This is a novel approach, as the literature on skill-biased technological change considers inelastic labor supply. Elastic labor supply allows us to explain how the observed increasing unemployment of unskilled workers is caused by skill-biased technological change. Our numerical analysis shows that if the skill-biased technological change is not followed by the growth of total factor productivity, then output, physical capital stock and consumption decline. Using empirical data on wages and education, we construct a time series for skill-biased technological change for Poland and the US. The empirical relevance of the model is tested by calibrating it to empirical data for Poland over the period 1996-2006 and US over the period 1992-2008. With only two necessary inputs, share of skilled workers in total population and the technology adopted by firms, this model allows to simulate the future behaviour of the labor market. |
| Keywords: | Skill-biased technological change, Endogenous labor supply, Transition Economies |
| JEL: | O11 O3 O41 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2009_12&r=tra |
| By: | Kuboniwa, Masaaki |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:15&r=tra |
| By: | Gordon Anderson (University of Toronto); Oliver Linton (London School of Economics); Yoon-Jae Whang (Seoul National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops methodology for nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure due to Anderson (2004) and Anderson, Ge, and Leo (2006) based on kernel estimation techniques. We give the asymptotic distribution theory of our estimator, which in some cases is nonstandard due to a boundary value problem. We also propose a method for conducting inference based on estimation of unknown quantities in the limiting distribution and show that our method yields consistent inference in all cases we consider. We investigate the finite sample properties of our methods by simulation methods. We give an application to the study of polarization within China in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Kernel estimation, Inequality, Overlap coefficient; Poissonization |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C14 |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1714&r=tra |
| By: | Skribans, Valerijs |
| Abstract: | Recently construction industry in Latvia has experienced substantial changes. Stabile increase of construction since 2002 has transformed to a boom in 2006-2007. Year 2008 characterizes with continuation of the boom in first half-year and with the rapid downslide in the second half-year. The downslide can cause the protracted recession not only in construction industry, but also in the whole national economy. In the paper Latvian construction industry is comprehensively evaluated and compared with the Baltic States and the European Union. State of dwelling funds, dynamics of construction industry and factors influencing demand, including solvency of population, desires and necessities; factors of commercial and government demand are presented. Industry costs are analyzed separately: natural resources, production of building materials, fixed assets and attraction of money capital, personnel costs. Possibilities to obtain profit while working in construction were analyzed. Basing on the analysis, suggestions for improvements in the industry activities are elaborated. |
| Keywords: | construction economics; demand; living conditions; real estate; solvency; credit burden; investments |
| JEL: | N60 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16370&r=tra |
| By: | Christian Dustmann (University College London, CReAM); Tommaso Frattini (University College London, CReAM); Caroline Halls (CReAM) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the fiscal consequences of migration to the UK from the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in May 2004 (A8 countries). We show that A8 immigrants who arrived after EU enlargement in 2004, and who have at least one year of residence – and are therefore legally eligible to claim benefits - are 60% less likely than natives to receive state benefits or tax credits, and 58% less likely to live in social housing. Even if A8 immigrants had the same demographic characteristics of natives, they would still be 13% less likely to receive benefits and 28% less likely to live in social housing. We then compare the net fiscal contribution of A8 immigrants with that of individuals born in the UK, and find that in each fiscal year since enlargement in 2004, A8 immigrants made a positive contribution to public finance despite the fact that the UK has been running a budget deficit over the last years. This is because they have a higher labour force participation rate, pay proportionately more in indirect taxes, and make much lower use of benefits and public services. |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:200918&r=tra |