nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2009‒04‒25
27 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
Heriot-Watt University

  1. (Un)Happiness in Transition By Guriev, Sergei; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  2. Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Polish Manufacturing 1993-2006 By Anna Golejewska
  3. Entrepreneurial Entry: Which Institutions Matter? By Aidis, Ruta; Estrin, Saul; Mickiewicz, Tomasz
  4. Who Wants To Revise Privatization? The Complementarity of Market Skills and Institutions By Denisova, Irina; Eller, Markus; Frye, Timothy; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  5. Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia By Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  6. Health Effects of Occupational Change By Olga Lazareva
  7. China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons for Democratic Developing Countries By Arvind Virmani
  8. Public pension and household saving: Evidence from China By Feng, Jin; He, Lixin; Sato, Hiroshi
  9. The evolution of Chinese entrepreneurial firms: Township-village enterprises revisited By Xu, Chenggang; Zhang, Xiaobo
  10. Determinants of FDI in Czech Manufacturing Industries between 2000-2006 By Eva Ryšavá; Elisa Galeotti
  11. Household decision making and the influence of spouses’ income, education, and communist party membership: A field experiment in rural China By Carlsson, Fredrik; Martinsson, Peter; Qin, Ping; Sutter, Matthias
  12. Navigating the Trilemma: Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in China By Reuven Glick; Michael Hutchison
  13. 2008 Stock Markets and the Race to the Bottom: “Stuck” in China By Tyler Rooker
  14. The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China. By Roland Straub; Christian Thimann
  15. Including financial services in preferential trade agreements : lessons of international experience for China By Stephanou, Constantinos
  16. Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy By Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, Fabrizio; Horváth, Roman
  17. Does the DiPasquale-Wheaton Model Explain the House Price Dynamics in China Cities? By Kenneth K. Chow; Matthew S. Yiu; Charles Ka Yui Leung; Dickson C. Tam
  18. Covered Interest Rate Parity: The Case of the Czech Republic By Bednarik, Radek
  19. How does biotech food labelling affect consumers’ purchasing preferences and the market? Evidence from urban China By Zhong, Funing; Chen, Xi
  20. Polish Households' behavior in the Regular and Informal Economies By François Gardes; Christophe Starzec
  21. Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy By Tang, Weiqi; Wu, Libo; Zhang, ZhongXiang
  22. Romanian commercial banks and credit risk in financing SME By Covaci, Brindusa
  23. The Long Term Consequences of Famine on Survivors: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment using China's Great Famine By Xin Meng; Nancy Qian
  24. Are your firmÕs taxes set in Warsaw ? Spatial tax competition in Europe By Karen, CRABBE; Hylke, VANDENBUSSCHE
  25. Is Poland really ‘immune’ to the spread of cohabitation? By Anna Matysiak
  26. Pricing bivariate option under GARCH-GH model with dynamic copula: application for Chinese market By Dominique Guegan; Jing Zhang
  27. International migration and gender differentials in the home labor market : evidence from Albania By Mendola, Mariapia; Carletto, Gero

  1. By: Guriev, Sergei; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: Despite strong growth performance in transition economies in the last decade, residents of transition countries report abnormally low levels of life satisfaction. Using data from the World Values Survey and other sources, we study various explanations of this phenomenon. First, we document that the disparity in life satisfaction between residents of transition and non-transition countries is much larger among the elderly. Second, we find that deterioration in public goods provision, an increase in macroeconomic volatility, and a mismatch of human capital of residents educated before transition which disproportionately affected the aged population explain a great deal of the difference in life satisfaction between transition countries and other countries with similar income and other macroeconomic conditions. The rest of the gap is explained by the difference in the quality of the samples. As in other countries, life satisfaction in transition countries is strongly related to income; but, due to a higher non-response of high-income individuals in transition countries, the survey-data estimates of the recent increase in life satisfaction, driven by 10-year sustained economic growth in transition region, are biased downwards. The evidence suggests that if the region keeps growing at current rates, life satisfaction in transition countries will catch up with the "normal" level in the near future.
    Keywords: happiness; satisfaction; transition; unhappiness
    JEL: A13 I21 P36
    Date: 2009–04
  2. By: Anna Golejewska (Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk)
    Abstract: Using panel data this paper examines the impact of firms with foreign capital on labor productivity of local firms in Poland. To examine productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment in Polish manufacturing I make two hypotheses: the contagion and technology gap hypothesis. The first one assumes that productivity spillovers from foreign firms to local ones increase in line with the growing share of foreign-owned firm in total production. The second one presumes that the bigger technological gaps between foreign and local firms the more intensive technology spillovers. Estimation results indicate the lack of spillovers in Polish manufacturing as a whole. Considering different groups of industries, I observe both: positive and negative productivity spillovers. The bigger technology gap between foreign and local firms is reflected in less intensive spillovers.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Spillovers, Productivity
    JEL: C51 F21 F23
    Date: 2009–04
  3. By: Aidis, Ruta (University College London); Estrin, Saul (London School of Economics); Mickiewicz, Tomasz (University College London)
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the relationship between the individual decision to become an entrepreneur and the institutional context. We pinpoint the critical roles of property rights and the size of the state sector for entrepreneurial activity and test the relationships empirically by combining country-level institutional indicators for 44 countries with working age population survey data taken from the Global Enterprise Monitor. A methodological contribution is the use of factor analysis to reduce the statistical problems with the array of highly collinear institutional indicators. We find that the key institutional features that enhance entrepreneurial activity are indeed the rule of law and limits to the state sector. However, these results are sensitive to the level of development.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, property rights, access to finance
    JEL: L26 P14 P51 P37
    Date: 2009–04
  4. By: Denisova, Irina; Eller, Markus; Frye, Timothy; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: Using survey data from 28 transition countries, we test for the complementarity and substitutability of market-relevant skills and institutions. We show that democracy and good governance complement market skills in transition economies. Under autocracy and weak governance institutions there is no significant difference in support for revising privatization between high and low-skilled respondents. As the level of democracy and the quality of governance increases, the difference in the level of support for revising privatization between the high and low skilled grows dramatically. This finding contributes to our understanding of microfoundations of the politics of economic reform.
    Keywords: Complementarity; Perception; Privatization; Skills; Transition
    JEL: J2 O0 P0
    Date: 2009–04
  5. By: Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: How do media affect voting behavior? What difference can an independent media outlet make in a country with state-controlled media? Our paper addresses these questions by comparing electoral outcomes and votes reported by survey respondents during the 1999 parliamentary elections in Russia for those geographical areas that had access and those that had no access to the only national TV channel independent from the government ("NTV"). The effect is identified from exogenous variation in the availability of the signal, which appears to be mostly idiosyncratic, conditional on controls. The findings are as follows. 1) The presence of the independent TV channel decreased the aggregate vote for the government party by 2.5 percentage points and increased the combined vote for major opposition parties by 2.1 percentage points. 2) The probability of voting for opposition parties increased for individuals who watched NTV even controlling for voting intentions measured one month prior to the elections. 3) NTV had a smaller effect on votes of people with higher political knowledge and those using alternative sources of political news and a larger effect on retired persons who watch TV substantially more than working individuals.
    Keywords: Media; NTV; Political Persuasion; Russia
    JEL: D0 H0 J0
    Date: 2009–04
  6. By: Olga Lazareva (Stockholm School of Economics and Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), Moscow)
    Abstract: Rapidly changing technologies and the growing openness of economies to international trade sometimes make entire occupations in the countries affected redundant. People employed in these occupations have to switch to other occupations that they do not necessarily like. Such “forced” occupational change causes stress, which can be harmful to their health. The effect of people losing their profession on their health has not been previously studied. This paper is intended to fill the gap. I study the effect of occupational change on health and health-related behavior using data from Russia’s economic transition, which was characterized by massive occupational mobility. The results show that “forced” occupational change has a significant negative effect on individual health; it also increases smoking and alcohol consumption. These results survive a number of robustness checks.
    Keywords: occupational change, health, smoking, alcohol
    JEL: J62 J24 I10
    Date: 2009–04
  7. By: Arvind Virmani
    Abstract: The paper’s focus is on successful Chinese policies that can be emulated by other countries to an extent (within certain bounds) which mentined in the article. The author is not trying to draw lessons for China itself on what policies it should correct or how China can do better in future, though some of these emerge as by products.
    Keywords: china, economic factors, policy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), economy, socialism, production, centrally planned allocation, market economy, external trade, FDI, export production, socialist planning system
    Date: 2009
  8. By: Feng, Jin (BOFIT); He, Lixin (BOFIT); Sato, Hiroshi (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We relate household saving to pension reform, to explain the high household saving rates in urban China from a new perspective. We use the exogenous – policy induced - variation in pension wealth to explicitly estimate the impact of pension wealth on household saving, and obtain a significant offset effect of pension wealth on household saving. Our estima-tions show that pension reform boosted the household saving rate in 1999 by about 6 per-centage points for cohort aged 25-29 and by about 3 percentage points for cohort aged 50-59. Our results also indicate that declining pension wealth reduces expenditure on educa-tion and health more than on other consumption items.
    Keywords: pensions; pension reform; household savings rate; China
    JEL: H31 H55 P35
    Date: 2009–04–20
  9. By: Xu, Chenggang; Zhang, Xiaobo
    Abstract: "Township-village enterprises (TVEs) were a major engine of China's rapid rural industrialization in the past three decades. TVEs also played a key role in fostering entrepreneurship and served as a major stepping-stone for institutional changes when legal protections of private property rights were not in place and the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were slow to react to changing market demand. As private ownership was gradually recognized legally, TVEs lost their edge in competing with private firms. In the past two decades, industrial clusters with a concentration of private entrepreneurial firms coordinated by local governments have emerged rapidly in many areas. The structures of such firms as TVEs and the subsequent clustering modes of production are an outcome of interaction with other local and macro environments. As the environment changes, a firm's organization and organizational structure may change as well." from authors' abstract
    Keywords: Cluster, Firm theory, Industrialization, Growth, Development strategies,
    Date: 2009
  10. By: Eva Ryšavá (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Elisa Galeotti (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: The Czech Republic has been a successful recipient of foreign direct investment over recent years. Therefore, it is important to understand the decisions made by foreign investors where to place their investments and how to decide about their location between alternative industries. The aim of this paper is to _nd and estimate an econometric model describing the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing industry of the CR between 2000-2006. Our model includes several basic economic variables (for example labor, physical capital, R&D, pro_ts per labor. Together with simple techniques of estimation (OLS, _xed e_ects) we used generalized method of moments (GMM). As an additional technique we used also least trimmed squares estimator (LTS) as a diagnostic tool for the heterogeneous pattern of data.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Czech Republic, manufacturing industry, panel data, GMM
    JEL: C01 C23 C51 C82 F21 F40
    Date: 2009–04
  11. By: Carlsson, Fredrik (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Martinsson, Peter (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Qin, Ping (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sutter, Matthias (Department of Public Finance, University of Innsbruck)
    Abstract: We study household decision making in a high-stakes experiment with a random sample of households in rural China. Spouses have to choose between risky lotteries, first separately and then jointly. We find that spouses’ individual risk preferences are more similar the richer the household and the higher the wife’s relative income contribution. A couple’s joint decision is typically determined by the husband, but women who contribute relatively more to the household income, women in high-income households, women with more education than their husbands, and women with communist party membership have a stronger influence on the joint decision.<p>
    Keywords: Household decision making; Risk; Field experiment; China
    JEL: C91 C92 C93 D10
    Date: 2009–04–20
  12. By: Reuven Glick (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Michael Hutchison (University of California, Santa Cruz)
    Abstract: In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma¡Xhow to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China's monetary policy as the country liberalizes its goods and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth. We estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China's reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.
    Date: 2008–12
  13. By: Tyler Rooker (Goldsmiths, University of London)
    Abstract: Since late 2005, China’s two stock markets, in Shanghai (SSE) and Shenzhen (SZSE), have risen over 600% only to fall by close to 60% from a peak in late 2007. The race up and down is reflected in China’s macroeconomic indicators, but the real story lies with individuals investing in the market. In contrast to past studies of China’s stock markets, this paper argues that individual investors, and especially those investing less than 100,000 USD, are a critical part of the market. One postulate is that it is precisely these “micro” investors who, despite the general consensus that China’s stock markets are “policy markets”, keep the state from regulating the market. Put warrants, literally worthless paper in the days before the end of trading, continue to become sites for speculative trading. The 2007 stock market rose 97%, while the 2008 market has fallen over 50%: the non-tradable share reform, allowing large and small holders to trade previously non-tradable shares, is the current bane of the market. Yet the culprits in abnormal trading are not “individuals”, but the companies, often owned by local governments, that are the vanguard of China’s reform. This paper reviews these developments in detail, and suggests a potential new theory of China’s securities reform.
    Date: 2008–05
  14. By: Roland Straub (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Christian Thimann (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the external and domestic dimension of China’s exchange rate policy. It presents an open economy model to analyse both dimensions of macroeconomic adjustment in China under both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. The model-based results indicate that persistent current account surpluses in China cannot be rationalized, under general circumstances, by the occurrence of permanent technology or labour supply shocks. As a result, the understanding of the macroeconomic adjustment process in China requires to mimic the effects of potential inefficiencies, which induce the subdued response of domestic absorption to permanent income shocks causing thereby the observed positive unconditional correlation of trade balance and output. The paper argues that these inefficiencies can be potentially seen as a by-product of the fixed exchange rate regime, and can be approximated by a stochastic tax on domestic consumption or time varying transaction cost technology related to money holdings. Our results indicate that a fixed exchange regime with financial market distortions, as defined above, might induce negative effects on GDP growth in the medium-term compared to a more flexible exchange rate regime. JEL Classification: E32, E62.
    Keywords: DSGE modelling, China, current account.
    Date: 2009–03
  15. By: Stephanou, Constantinos
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to address the main considerations for China of including financial services in its preferential trade agreements. The paper briefly reviews China's financial liberalization process and the state of its domestic financial system, discusses the main considerations of including financial services in China's preferential trade agreements, compares and contrasts the different'architectural'approaches that have been used by countries to include financial services in such agreements, and identifies good practices in preparing for financial services negotiations. Particular emphasis is placed on lessons from Latin American preferential trade agreements, given their more frequent and extensive coverage of financial services compared with other regions.
    Keywords: Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Trade Law,Trade and Services,
    Date: 2009–04–01
  16. By: Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, Fabrizio; Horváth, Roman
    Abstract: The paper provides an empirical analysis of inflation persistence in one of inflation targeting countries, the Czech Republic, using 412 detailed product-level consumer price indexes underlying the consumer basket over the period from 1994 to 2005. Subject to various sensitivity tests, our results suggest that raw goods and non-durables, followed by services, display smaller inflation persistence than durables and processed goods. Inflation seems to be somewhat less persistent after the adoption of inflation targeting in 1998. There is also evidence for aggregation bias, that is, aggregate inflation is found to be more persistent than the underlying detailed components. Price dispersion, as a proxy for the degree of competition, is found to be negatively related to inflation persistence, suggesting that competition is not conducive to reducing persistence.
    Keywords: inflation dynamics; inflation targeting; persistence
    JEL: D40 E31
    Date: 2009–04
  17. By: Kenneth K. Chow (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Matthew S. Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Charles Ka Yui Leung (City University of Hong Kong); Dickson C. Tam (China International Capital Corporation Limited)
    Abstract: The "overheating" of the Chinese housing market in recent years has caught the attention of policy makers, the research community, as well as the general public. Leung and Wang (2007) shows that the qualitative features of the aggregate Chinese housing market are well captured by the DiPasquale-Wheaton (1992) model. This paper estimates a version of the DiPasquale-Wheaton (1994) model with four major Chinese cities: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing. It examines the factors which affect the housing price and construction. Policy implications and future research directions are also discussed.
    Keywords: Housing Market Dynamics, Cross-city Difference, Panel Data Method
    JEL: C33 E30 R00
    Date: 2008–11
  18. By: Bednarik, Radek
    Abstract: This paper tries to find out, whether the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIRP) theory was valid for exchange rate CZK/EUR during the period ranging from May 2001 to November 2007. As a main tool, a common OLS regression was chosen. It was augmented by MA(1) process of residuals and by ARCH (6) model of residuals’ variance. The results show, that the CIRP theory was not valid during selected period. However, it seems apparent, that the main factors for 3-month forward exchange rate CZK/EUR determination were an interest rate differential and a nominal spot exchange rate. This is fully consistent with the CIRP theory.
    Keywords: Covered interest rate parity; exchange rate; interest rate; foreign exchange markets
    JEL: E43 F31
    Date: 2008–01–05
  19. By: Zhong, Funing; Chen, Xi
    Abstract: This paper examines whether and how biotech labelling has had an impact on Chinese consumers’ vegetable oil purchasing decisions. The authors used sales data from Nanjing and household survey data from Jiangsu province. They found that the market share of biotech oils immediately decreased as a result, though the decrease was small in absolute terms (but statistically significant). In addition, the changes in the biotech oil market share were affected by the structural effect of the rich, while there was no apparent gross consumption effect of the poor, which could have been underestimated due to a series of factors concerning the two datasets applied.
    Keywords: biotech labelling; actual sales data; vegetable oil; market share; China
    JEL: Q13 P46 Q18
    Date: 2009–03
  20. By: François Gardes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Christophe Starzec (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes characteristics of the informal economy in Poland in the context of transition, using a specific survey carried out in the framework of the classic Labour Force Survey, conducted by the Polish National Statistical office (GUS), in 1995. The participation probabilities of three types of informal activities (working, buying and hiring) are discussed. Their interdependencies are analyzed in the light of the hypothesis of network or neighborhood effects. The impact of a household's participation in informal markets on its regular consumption is estimated by imputing the probability of its informal activity in the consumption surveys and panels. Such participation does significantly influence more than half of household's expenditure on goods and services. Moreover, the participants of the informal economy distinguish themselves by higher individual full prices (integrating both monetary and non-monetary constraints and resources).
    Keywords: Informal economy ; consumer behavior ; cross-section-panel estimation
    Date: 2009–03
  21. By: Tang, Weiqi; Wu, Libo; Zhang, ZhongXiang
    Abstract: A considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil-price shocks for the developed economies. However, there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on China and other developing countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil-price shocks impact China’s economy, emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms. To that end, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model. Our results show that an oil-price increase negatively affects output and investment, but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate. However, with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in China, the impact on real economy, represented by real output and real investment, lasts much longer than that to price/monetary variables. Our decomposition results also show that the short-term impact, namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity-utilization rate, is greater in the first one to two years, but the portion of the long-term impact, defined as the impact realized through an investment change, increases steadily and exceeds that of short-term impact at the end of the second year. Afterwards, the long-term impact dominates, and maintains for quite some time.
    Keywords: Structural vector auto-regressive model; Unit root test; Error-correction model; Oil-price shocks; Price transmission mechanisms; Investment; Output; Producer/consumer price index; Census X-12 approach; China
    JEL: Q41 O53 Q48 E22 O13 E23 P22 Q43
    Date: 2009–03
  22. By: Covaci, Brindusa
    Abstract: Romania’s integration in the European Union brought about some major changes in our banking system. One of the direct consequences is the fierce competition between banks for supremacy on the market. According to this, the Romanian banks saw in the SMEs sector a true potential for reaching their goal and they proceeded to conquer it by conceiving unique products, specially designed to reach the financial needs of this segment. Moreover, banks often come up with new attractive offers and cost reductions for the SMEs (Small and Mediu Sized Enterprises) sector. In this context, some answers need to be done: the effective risk banks accept to take by providing the offers, specific risks in financing this sector, the problem of the balance between risk and profit return (or market share increase).
    Keywords: credit risk; risk management; financing SME; bank policies
    JEL: D53 E44
    Date: 2008–11–23
  23. By: Xin Meng; Nancy Qian
    Abstract: This paper estimates the long run impact of famine on survivors in the context of China's Great Famine. To address problems of measurement error of famine exposure and potential endogeneity of famine intensity, we exploit a novel source of variation in regional intensity of famine derived from the unique institutional determinants of the Great Famine. To address attenuation bias caused by selection for survival, we estimate the impact on the upper quantiles of the distribution of outcomes. Our results indicate that in-utero and early childhood exposure to famine had large negative effects on adult height, weight, weight-for-height, educational attainment and labor supply.
    JEL: I1 J01 J1 O1
    Date: 2009–04
    Abstract: Tax competition within the EU is fiercer than in the rest of the OECD with tax rates falling rapidly. This paper analyzes tax responses of EU-15 countries to corporate tax changes in the EU-10 new member states as a function of their proximity to these new member states. The average corporate tax rate in the new member states has always been considerably lower than the average in the EU-15 countries. Their entry into the EU eliminated capital barriers, allowing firms to locate in one of the new EU-10 with full access to the European Market. Our results indicate that EU-15 countries geographically closer to the new member states respond stronger to corporate tax changes in these new member states. We use a theoretical and a spatial regression framework to test the hypothesis that distance to a low tax region intensifies countriesÕ tax reaction functions
    Keywords: H25; H77; H39
    Date: 2008–12–05
  25. By: Anna Matysiak (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Various data have constantly pointed out a low incidence of non-marital unions in Poland (at 1.4-4.9% among all unions). In this paper we demonstrate that these data, coming exclusively from cross-sectional surveys, clearly underestimate the scale of the phenomenon. By exploiting data on partnership histories we show that young Poles have been increasingly opting for cohabitation. Consequently, in the years 2004-2006 entries to cohabitation constituted about one third of all first union entries. Consensual unions are more widespread among the low social strata, but recently a clear increase in cohabitation has been observed also among the highly educated. Although the estimates of cohabitation incidence are far below those observed in Northern and Western Europe, our study suggests that Poland is not as ‘immune’ to the spread of consensual unions as it is commonly believed.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2009–04
  26. By: Dominique Guegan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Jing Zhang (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, ECNU - East China Normal University)
    Abstract: This paper develops the method for pricing bivariate contingent claims under General Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (GARCH) process. In order to provide a general framework being able to accommodate skewness, leptokurtosis, fat tails as well as the time varying volatility that are often found in financial data, generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution is used for innovations. As the association between the underlying assets may vary over time, the dynamic copula approach is considered. Therefore, the proposed method proves to play an important role in pricing bivariate option. The approach is illustrated for Chinese market with one type of better-of-two-markets claims : call option on the better performer of Shanghai Stock Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Composite Index. Results show that the option prices obtained by the GARCH-GH model with time-varying copula differ substantially from the prices implied by the GARCH-Gaussian dynamic copula model. Moreover, the empirical work displays the advantage of the suggested method.
    Keywords: Call-on-max option - GARCH process - generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution - normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution - copula - dynamic copula
    Date: 2009
  27. By: Mendola, Mariapia; Carletto, Gero
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of male-dominated international migration in shaping labor market outcomes by gender in migrant-sending households in Albania. Using detailed information on family migration experience from the latest Living Standards Measurement Study survey, the authors find that male and female labor supplies respond differently to the current and past migration episodes of household members. Controlling for the potential endogeneity of migration and for the income (remittances) effect, the estimates show that having a migrant abroad decreases female paid labor supply and increases unpaid work. However, women with past family migration experience are significantly more likely to engage in self-employment and less likely to supply unpaid work. The same relationships do not hold for men. These findings suggest that over time male-dominated Albanian migration may lead to women's empowerment in access to income-earning opportunities at the origin.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Population Policies,Labor Policies,Access to Finance,Gender and Development
    Date: 2009–04–01

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