nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2008‒09‒29
29 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
Heriot-Watt University

  1. Employment and Wage Effects of Privatization: Evidence from Hungary, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine By Brown, J. David; Earle, John S.; Telegdy, Álmos
  2. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach By Yao, Shujie; Han, Zhongwei; Feng, Genfu
  3. Regional Assessment of Openness and Productivity Spillovers in China from 1979 to 2006: A Space-Time Model By Sélin Ozyurt
  4. Vulnerability, Trust and Microcredit: The Case of China?s Rural Poor By Turvey, Calum G.; Kong, Rong
  5. Understanding the Contributions of Reallocation to Productivity Growth: Lessons from a Comparative Firm-Level Analysis By Brown, J. David; Earle, John S.
  6. The Impact of Reform on Economic Growth in China: A Principal Component Analysis By Song, Ligang; Sheng, Yu
  7. The emergence of markets and capabilities, dynamic transaction costs and institutions: effects on organizational choices in offshored and outsourced business services in China By Martha Prevezer
  8. International Integration and Regional Development in China By Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete
  9. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles By Fidrmuc, Jarko; Batorova, Ivana
  10. Financial stability challenges in candidate countries - managing the transition to deeper and more market-oriented financial systems. By Thierry Bracke; André Geis; Maurizio Habib; Csaba Móré; Éva Katalin Polgár; Adalbert Winkler; Emidio Cocozza; Peter Backé
  11. Testing for stationarity of inflation in Central and Eastern European Countries By Juan Carlos Cuestas; Barry Harrison
  12. Innovation Capacity and Economic Development: China and India By Fan, Peilei
  13. Globalization, Transparency and Economic Growth: The Vulnerability of Chinese Firms to Macroeconomic Shocks By Oxelheim, Lars
  14. Comparing Regional Development in China and India By Wu, Yanrui
  15. The obstacles in the way of stabilizing the russian oil model By Sylvain Rossiaud; Catherine Locatelli
  16. Inherited or Earned? Performance of Foreign Banks in Central and Eastern Europe By Olena Havrylchyk; Emilia Jurzyk
  17. Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis By Tang, Sumei; Selvanathan, E.A.; Selvanathan, S.
  18. Chin's Economic Growth: Trajectories and Evolving Institutions By Zhang, Jun
  19. Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point? By Cai, Fang
  20. China?s Development Strategy and Energy Security: Growth, Distribution and Regional Cooperation By Khan, Haider A.
  21. State and market interaction: cotton variety and seed market development in China By Michel Fok; Naiyin Xu
  22. Banking Inefficiency in Central and Eastern European countries under a Quadratic Loss Function By Anastasia Koutsomanoli-Filippaki; Emmanuel Mamatzakis
  23. The Effect of Foreign Bank Entry on the Cost of Credit in Transition Economies. Which Borrowers Benefit the Most? By Hans Degryse; Olena Havrylchyk; Emilia Jurzyk; Sylwester Kozak
  24. Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in? By Ivaschenko, Oleksiy; Mete, Cem
  25. Employment, productivity, output growth in emerging countries. Evidence from Romania By Bocean, Claudiu George; Sitnikov, Cataliana Soriana; Meghisan, Madalina Georgeta
  26. Marginal Intra-Industry Trade and Adjustment Costs - A Hungarian-Polish Comparison By Imre Ferto; Károly Attila Soos
  27. Codes of Good Governance in Hungary By Zsolt Bedo; Eva Ozsvald
  28. Gender and Ethnicity in Post-Conflict Kosovo By Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar; Gang, Ira N.; Yun, Myeong-Su
  29. Driving Factors of Growth in Hungary - a Decomposition Exercise By Gábor Kátay; Zoltán Wolf

  1. By: Brown, J. David (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh); Earle, John S. (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Telegdy, Álmos (Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: We use longitudinal methods and universal panel data on 30,000 initially state-owned manufacturing firms in four transition economies to estimate the impacts of privatization on employment and wages. The results in all four countries consistently reject job losses and they never imply large wage cuts from privatization to either foreign or domestic owners. The domestic privatization estimates are close to zero for employment, while for wages they are negative but small in magnitude; estimated foreign privatization effects are nearly always positive and sometimes large for both outcome variables. We find that the negligible consequences of domestic privatization result from effects on scale, productivity, and costs that are large but offsetting in Hungary and Romania, and from small effects of all types in Russia and Ukraine. The positive employment outcome of foreign ownership results from a substantial scale-expansion effect that dominates the productivity-improvement effect, and the positive wage outcome from productivity improvement dominating the cost-reduction effect.
    Keywords: privatization, employment, wages, foreign ownership, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Ukraine
    JEL: D21 G34 J23 J31 L33 P31
    Date: 2008–09
  2. By: Yao, Shujie; Han, Zhongwei; Feng, Genfu
    Abstract: Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China?s banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
    Keywords: data envelopment analysis (DEA), efficiency, banking, China
    Date: 2008
  3. By: Sélin Ozyurt
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and international trade on labour productivity in 30 Chinese provinces over the period 1979-2006. Since China launched the “open door” policy in 1978, the country has been attracting a growing share of FDI flows and its international trade has been expanding considerably. China’s accession into the WTO in 2001 has also started a new era in its integration into the world economy. In this paper, we model labour productivity as dependent on FDI, foreign trade and other traditional variables such as capital intensity, infrastructure and human capital development. Our empirical analysis improves the existing wide literature by taking into account spatial effects and potential econometric issues they imply. Using recently developed spatial data analysis tools, we explore the pattern, (weather it be negative or positive) and the extent of spatial interaction of labour productivity between regions. Thereby, we extend previous research by testing the explanatory power of additional variables such as spatially lagged independent and dependent variables. The explicit consideration of spatial dependence in the modelling scheme provides us a better understanding of the regional spillovers process. Our results indicate a general trend of spatial autocorrelation in labour productivity during the study period. Put differently, in China, the productivity of a given region is highly determined by those of surrounding regions. In addition, our empirical outcomes yield support for positive and significant impacts of FDI and foreign trade on labour productivity. Furthermore, in China, FDI and trade exhibit a positive spatial pattern and give rise to interregional productivity spillovers among provinces. These findings are robust to a number of alternative spatial weighting matrix specifications.
    Date: 2008–09
  4. By: Turvey, Calum G.; Kong, Rong
    Abstract: This paper investigates the economic conditions of rural households in China. Historical survey data indicate that over 80 per cent of rural households earn less than 4,500 yuan in net disposable income each year, that for the vast majority of rural households disposable income is insufficient to meet food consumption needs, and that in terms of economic growth rural households are receiving an ever decreasing percentage of China?s growing economy with rural household incomes being only 31 per cent of urban household income in 2004. To reduce vulnerability and food insecurity, this paper investigates the role of microcredit in China. It is argued that in China the conventional wisdom is to provide credit using traditional means, but we provide a model that shows how a microcredit market based on trust can co-exist with a commercial collateral-based market. This model is developed in detail and certain propositions are supported using dominant strategies in a trust-honour game based on the prisoner?s dilemma. The theoretical model is then applied to the case of microlending in China. It explains why, in the absence of trust, rural credit corporations do not make loans to the very poor. Furthermore, the model explains how Central party policies on rural credit can actually crowd out micro finance institution (MFI) and NGO microlending in China, and also explains why moneylenders dominate in many of the poorer regions of the country. From a policy point of view, the theoretical model indicates that trust-based lending, coupled with certain incentives, can go far in supporting growth opportunities in rural China. It is argued that Chinese policy should be flexible enough to permit trust-based microlending to the poor, regardless of how counterintuitive this must appear to the conventional wisdom. Indeed, in the absence of flexible credit strategies, China?s rural poor will remain in a persistent food-insecure poverty gap.
    Keywords: equilibrium, game theory, rural, credit, China
    Date: 2008
  5. By: Brown, J. David (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh); Earle, John S. (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)
    Abstract: We analyze comprehensive manufacturing firm data to measure the contribution of inter-firm employment reallocation to aggregate productivity growth during the socialist and reform periods in six transition economies. Modifying a standard decomposition technique to better reflect the role of firm entry, we find that reallocation rates and productivity contributions are very low under socialism. After reforms, they rise dramatically, and productivity contributions greatly exceed those observed in market economies. Early in transition, faster reform is associated with larger contributions from reallocation, but later, and on average over the whole transition, this relationship is reversed. Though reallocation rates are larger in faster reforming economies, higher productivity dispersion in slower reformers creates much higher productivity gains for a given volume of reallocation. The results imply that reallocation should be viewed as necessary regular maintenance for a well-functioning economy, and particularly large productivity contributions tend to reflect previous neglect more than current virtue.
    Keywords: productivity, reallocation, industry dynamics, creative destruction, reform, transition, Georgia, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Ukraine
    JEL: E32 O47 P23
    Date: 2008–09
  6. By: Song, Ligang; Sheng, Yu
    Abstract: The study decomposes the sources of Chinese growth by first making a distinction between technological progress and technical efficiency in the growth accounting framework, and then identifying a series of reform programmes, such as urbanization, structural change, privatization, liberalization, banking and fiscal system reforms as the key components in institutional innovation which facilitate the improvement of technical efficiency and through which economic growth. These components are then incorporated into the model specification, which is estimated based on a panel dataset by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) to eliminate the multicollinearity problem. The results show that urbanization, liberalization and structural change in the form of industrialization are the most important components in contributing to the improvement of technical efficiency and hence growth, highlighting the importance of government policies aimed at enhancing further urbanization, openness to trade and industrial structural adjustments to sustain the growth momentum in China. The study also found that the potential for further enhancing growth through technical efficiency in China is considerable, which can be realized by deepening state-owned enterprises (SOEs) restructuring, and banking and fiscal system reform.
    Keywords: institutional reform, growth, technical efficiency, principal component analysis, stochastic frontier analysis
    Date: 2008
  7. By: Martha Prevezer
    Abstract: This paper has three aims: 1) to use Langlois’ framework of dynamic transaction costs to illustrate the coevolution of firm capabilities and the emergence of new markets for offshored and outsourced business services in China; 2) to use Coase’s institutional structure of production framework to analyse the influence of Chinese institutions on the organizational choices made in the offshoring and outsourcing of business services in China and 3) to link the two themes and understand the interaction between Chinese institutions and the emergence of markets and capabilities in business services in China. We use case studies and interview data to look at these issues.
    Keywords: offshoring, China, business services, institutions, dynamic transactions costs
    Date: 2008–09
  8. By: Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete
    Abstract: Concerns about the duration of China?s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China?s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China?s provinces.Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Further, in contrast to implications from NEG models indicators for urbanization and agglomeration do not contribute significantly.
    Keywords: international integration, regional development, FDI, China
    Date: 2008
  9. By: Fidrmuc, Jarko; Batorova, Ivana
    Abstract: We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominates for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OECD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
    Keywords: business cycles, synchronisation, trade, FDI, dynamic correlation
    Date: 2008
  10. By: Thierry Bracke (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); André Geis (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Maurizio Habib (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Csaba Móré (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Éva Katalin Polgár (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Adalbert Winkler (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Emidio Cocozza (Banca d'Italia, Via Nazionale 91,I-00184 Rome, Italy.); Peter Backé (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB),  Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, PO Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria.)
    Abstract: This paper reviews financial stability challenges in the EU candidate countries Croatia, Turkey and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It examines the fi nancial sectors in these three economies, which, while at very different stages of development and embedded in quite diverse economic settings, are all in a process of rapid financial deepening. This manifests itself most clearly in the rapid pace of growth in credit to the private sector. This process of financial deepening is largely a natural and welcome catching-up phenomenon, but it has also increased the credit risks borne by the banking sectors in the three economies. These credit risks are compounded by the widespread use of foreign currency-denominated or -indexed loans, leaving unhedged bank customers exposed to potential swings in exchange rates or foreign interest rates. Moreover, these financial risks form part of a broader nexus of vulnerabilities in the economies concerned, in particular the external vulnerabilities arising from increasing private sector external indebtedness. That said, the paper also fi nds that the authorities in the three countries have taken several policy actions to reduce these fi nancial and external vulnerabilities and to strengthen the resilience of the financial sectors. JEL Classification: F32, F41, G21, G28.
    Keywords: Europe, banking sector, vulnerability indicators, capital inflows, emerging markets.
    Date: 2008–09
  11. By: Juan Carlos Cuestas; Barry Harrison
    Abstract: In this paper we provide an insight into the inflation dynamics in a panel of Central and Eastern European countries. These countries are selected because of their increasing importance in the EU and their likely increased future importance in monetary policy decisions inside the euro area. By means of unit root testing and allowing for the possibility of a smooth asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium, we show that inflation rates in more than half of the countries investigated are stationary processes. Our results imply evidence against the persistence hypothesis for them.
    Keywords: Inflation persistence, Unit roots, Nonlinearities
    JEL: C22 E31 E32
    Date: 2008–09
  12. By: Fan, Peilei
    Abstract: Both China and India, the emerging giants in Asia, have achieved significant economic development in recent years. China has enjoyed a high annual GDP growth rate of 10 per cent and India has achieved an annual GDP growth rate of 6 per cent since 1981. Decomposing China and India?s GDP growth from 1981 to 2004 into the three factors? contribution reveals that technology has contributed significantly to both countries? GDP growth, especially in the 1990s. R&D outputs (high-tech exports, service exports, and certified patents from USPTO) and inputs (R&D expenditure and human resources) further indicate that both countries have been very committed to R&D and their output is quite efficient. Both governments have played an essential role in transforming their national innovation systems so that they can be more adaptable to economic development. The main focus of their reforms has been to link the science sector with the business sector and to provide incentives for innovation activities. Balancing import of technology and indigenous R&D effort is another major theme. Innovation capability development has become more and more critical to the success of biofirms in India and China. Institutional factors have great influence on choice of innovation at the firm level, i.e., the decision at firm level in terms of indigenous R&D or import of technology. Nevertheless, limited financial resources and insufficiently qualified human resources remain two major challenges for domestic companies in both countries.
    Keywords: China, India, innovation capability, domestic companies, ICT, biotech
    Date: 2008
  13. By: Oxelheim, Lars (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. Abolition of capital controls and dismantling of barriers of different kinds are important ingredients of the process that will entirely change the exposure of previously sheltered companies to shocks on the global economic arena. Lessons learned by policy-makers in already globalized countries are that market participants should be prepared to meet the new exposure to fluctuating exchange rates, interest rates and inflation rates. China has recently adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in her efforts to improve the quality of information available for risk management and for pricing of risk. This paper claims that further improvements are needed and presents a new framework for how to understand and measure the impact of different scenarios on corporate performance. It also elaborates on how to communicate the macroeconomic effects to external stakeholders of the firm in a way that fosters further economic growth in China.
    Keywords: International Financial Reporting Standards; Transparency; Economic Growth; Macroeconomic Impact; Globalization
    JEL: E22 E32 E44 F15 F23 F37 G18 G32 L25 M21
    Date: 2008–09–24
  14. By: Wu, Yanrui
    Abstract: Economic growth in China and India has attracted many headlines recently. As a result, the literature comparing the two Asian giants has expanded substantially. This paper adds to the literature by comparing regional growth, disparity and convergence in the two economies. This is the first of its kind. The paper presents a detailed examination of economic growth in the regions of China and India over the past twenty years. It also provides an assessment of regional disparity in the two countries and investigates whether there is any evidence of regional convergence during the period of rapid economic growth. It attempts to identify the sources of regional disparity and hence draw policy implications for economic development in the two countries in the near future.
    Keywords: regional development, China, India, disparity, convergence
    Date: 2008
  15. By: Sylvain Rossiaud (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)
    Abstract: This article deals with the current change of the institutional and organizational framework of the Russian oil industry. Regarding this evolution, the main characteristic is the increasing involvement of national oil companies in the upstream activities. The point is to explain this reorganization by relying on the New Institutional Economics framework. These theoretical works highlight that institutional environment and governance structures complement each other. We argue that the current reorganization is an attempt to increase the coherence of the institutional arrangement governing the transaction between the Russian state and the private oil companies.
    Keywords: Russia ; oil industry ; institutional coherence
    Date: 2008–05
  16. By: Olena Havrylchyk; Emilia Jurzyk
    Abstract: Using a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-difference techniques we investigate the impact of foreign bank ownership on the performance and market power of acquired banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe. This approach allows us to control for selection bias as larger but less profitable banks were more likely to be acquired by foreign investors. We show that during three years after the takeover, banks have become more profitable due to cost minimization and better risk management. They have additionally gained market share, because they passed their lower cost of funds to borrowers in terms of lower lending rates. Previous studies failed to pick up the improvements in performance of takeover banks, because they did not account for the performance of financial institutions before acquisitions.
    Keywords: Foreign banks; foreign acquisition; propensity score matching
    JEL: G15 G21 G34 F36
    Date: 2008–09
  17. By: Tang, Sumei; Selvanathan, E.A.; Selvanathan, S.
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and economic growth in China for the period 1988-2003. Towards this purpose, a multivariate VAR system with error correction model (ECM) and the innovation accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis) techniques are used. The results show that while there is a bi-directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth, there is only a single-directional causality from FDI to domestic investment and to economic growth. Rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI is found to be complementary with domestic investment. Thus, FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, domestic investment, economic growth, multivariate VAR system, error correction model
    Date: 2008
  18. By: Zhang, Jun
    Abstract: This paper investigates the institutional reason underlying the change in the trajectory of economic growth in post-reform China, and argues that the trajectory of growth was much more normal during the period of 1978-89 than in the post-1989 era. In the former period, growth was largely induced by equality-generating institutional change in agriculture and the emergence of non-state industrial sector. In the latter period, growth was triggered by the acceleration of capital investments under authoritarian decentralized hierarchy within self-contained regions. Such a growth trajectory accelerates capital deepening, deteriorating total factor productivity and leads to rising regional imbalance. This paper further argues that the change in the trajectory of growth is the outcome of changes in political and inter-governmental fiscal institutions following the 1989 political crisis.
    Keywords: economic growth, political institutions
    Date: 2008
  19. By: Cai, Fang
    Abstract: With the aid of an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised to reflect the experience of China, this paper examines the country?s dualistic economic development and its unique characteristics. The paper outlines the major effects of China?s growth as achieved during the course of economic reform and the opening-up of the country: the exploitation of the demographic dividend, the realization of comparative advantage, the improvement of total factor productivity, and participation in economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between the labour force demand and supply, the paper reviews the approaching turning point in China?s economic development and examines a host of challenges facing the country in sustaining growth.
    Keywords: demographic dividend, Lewisian turning point, economic development, China
    Date: 2008
  20. By: Khan, Haider A.
    Abstract: This paper analyses both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China?s energy security. China?s growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future. Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. Fortunately, such a model of POLIS which is distributionally and ecologically sensitive can be built for China and applied strategically to lead towards a sustainable development trajectory. ...
    Keywords: China, development strategy, energy, environment, POLIS, innovation system, regional cooperation
    Date: 2008
  21. By: Michel Fok (Annual crop systems - CIRAD : UPR102); Naiyin Xu (RIIC - Research Institute of Industrial Crops - Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences)
    Abstract: China is ranking first in cotton production for more than 20 years. The adoption of GM cotton, since 1997, through the marketing of many varieties, has enabled it to maintain its rank by overcoming the pest resistance to insecticide. The varietal contribution has resulted from a radical change in the legal framework to enhance the variety and seed markets. Nevertheless, today, all cotton sector stakeholders do recognize that there is a big issue of excessive competition from a great number of varieties leading to variety and seed mixture. This situation has led the Chinese Government to decide on a new support policy called "quality seed subsidy policy". The Chinese policy in the areas of varieties and seeds hence is providing an interesting case of interaction between policy and market within less than twenty years.Our paper is a contribution to analyse the cotton variety and seed market development of the last twenty years by focussing on the interaction between State intervention and market. A change in the cotton policy, consisting of liberalizing the variety and seed markets, could prove to be quite successful where the capacities for breeding and investment exist prior to the policy change. This success nevertheless will remain a short term one if no regulation is provided to prevent the market development from excessive and unfair competition. The case analysed is a good illustration of the shortfalls of unregulated competition. It is however ineffective to regulate by imposing what farmers should use. Such a direct intervention in the market is showing undesired effects on the viability of seed companies.
    Keywords: China; cotton; Bt; seed market; property right; variety; regulation; competition
    Date: 2008–05–14
  22. By: Anastasia Koutsomanoli-Filippaki (Council of Economic Advisors, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Greece); Emmanuel Mamatzakis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia)
    Abstract: This paper employs a specification of a quadratic loss function based on forward looking rational expectations to model the underlying dynamics of efficiency scores in the banking industry of eleven Central and Eastern European countries over the period 1998-2005. Results show that there is considerable variation in the adjustment speed to the long run equilibrium across banking systems and over time, while it also appears that the recent accession to the EU has not led to the expected increase in the speed of adjustment to the long run equilibrium. Moreover, banks’ ownership structure appears to assert an influence on the speed at which credit institutions correct their past-period inefficiency.
    Keywords: Speed of adjustment, long run equilibrium, rational expectations, banking inefficiency.
    JEL: D24 G21 L25
    Date: 2008–09
  23. By: Hans Degryse; Olena Havrylchyk; Emilia Jurzyk; Sylwester Kozak
    Abstract: We employ a unique dataset to study the impact of foreign bank ownership and mode of entry on banks’ lending rates to transparent and opaque borrowers. We find that greenfield banks charge lower lending rates on average and we test for two hypotheses that can explain the lower cost of credit of these institutions: (1) superior performance or (2) different portfolio composition with a focus on more transparent borrowers. Our analysis shows that bank ownership and mode of entry have a large impact on banks’ portfolio composition in terms of borrowers, maturity, and currency. After controlling for these differences, we do not find any impact of foreign bank ownership and mode of entry on lending rates, which is in line with the "portfolio composition hypothesis".
    Keywords: Banks; ownership; loan pricing
    JEL: G21 G28 G34 L11
    Date: 2008–09
  24. By: Ivaschenko, Oleksiy; Mete, Cem
    Abstract: Tajikistan?s rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at a one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility. Third, there is strong evidence of geographic poverty mobility traps in Tajikistan. Higher levels of poverty in a district appear to reduce significantly the chance of a household shedding poverty. Living in a region with overall slow economic growth is also found to undermine the odds of exiting poverty and to increase the risk of falling into poverty. Finally, several key household-level factors, such as the share of adults, education level, health status and participation in wage employment, also emerge as significant predictors of poverty mobility.
    Keywords: welfare, poverty, Tajikistan
    Date: 2008
  25. By: Bocean, Claudiu George; Sitnikov, Cataliana Soriana; Meghisan, Madalina Georgeta
    Abstract: This paper clarifies the links between employment, productivity and output growth and traces prospects for the Romanian economy. Because it always remains true, the “fundamental identity” which relates employment to output and labor productivity is the starting point for this paper. We checked the indirect correlation between employment and GDP growth in Romania. Using the historical trends we extrapolated data to 2015. We think that a low unemployment rate and rapid productivity growth are the hallmarks of a successful emerging economy and thus top priorities of economic policy.
    Keywords: Employment; productivity; output growth
    JEL: O47 E27 E24
    Date: 2008–08–23
  26. By: Imre Ferto (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Károly Attila Soos (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: The structure of trade expansion in Hungary and Poland over the period 1990-1998 and its implications for labour-market adjustment is examined. An econometric analysis of trade and employment data suggests that changes in domestic consumption and productivity have significant influence on employment changes. But our results do not provide support for the smooth-adjustment hypothesis of intra-industry trade.
    Keywords: Intra-industry trade, adjustment costs
    JEL: F19
    Date: 2008–08
  27. By: Zsolt Bedo (University of Pecs); Eva Ozsvald (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to account for the short history of the soft law regulation of corporate conduct on the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE). In theory, voluntary codes of good governance are expected to improve the deficiences of the existing mechanisms of corporate governance. In case of the Hungarian public companies the most important corporate governance problems are those related to the fragile safeguards of the interests of minority shareholders and to the lack of incentives for a much higher degree of transparency and disclosure. It is these two sets of issues on which the present analysis concentrates. The empirical core of the paper assesses the quality of information to be gained from the corporate governance reports of listed companies on the BSE. In order to discover links between the quality of information and firm characteristics we categorized the declarations based on their adequacy and applied binary regression analysis. We found inverse relationship between ownership concentration and the quality of information, while the higher liquidity of shares enhanced the adequacy of declarations.
    Keywords: Corporate governance, company law, voluntary codes of governance
    JEL: G18 G34 K22 P34
    Date: 2008–09
  28. By: Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar; Gang, Ira N.; Yun, Myeong-Su
    Abstract: The paper examines the comparative economic wellbeing of female- and male-headed households among Serbs and Albanians in post-conflict Kosovo. Evidence from the living standards measurement study (LSMS) household survey, 2001, shows that Serb households, both those headed by women and men, are worse off than Albanians households. We find that female-headed households do not generally suffer more than male-headed households, but there is substantial variation among ethnic groups. While Albanian female-headed households are marginally better-off than Albanian male-headed households, Serb female-headed households have the lowest standard of living.
    Keywords: consumption, ethnicity, gender
    Date: 2008
  29. By: Gábor Kátay (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); Zoltán Wolf (Tinbergen Institute)
    Abstract: Applications tend to ignore that measured TFP reflects the variation of output that cannot be explained by changes in inputs. Such a change is not necessarily technological, so measured TFP differences across firms are an amalgam of technological, efficiency and other differences in attributes, which calls for further refinement in the treatment of TFP. To control for cyclical effects, we modify a standard technique in firmlevel production function estimation using a capacity utilization proxy. Based on a large panel of Hungarian manufacturing firms, we decompose value added growth to input factor, capacity utilization and estimated TFP growth contributions. We find that using an hours worked proxy, the variance of the residual drops considerably. We also find that TFP’s role has not been stable over the period: it contributed to value added growth mostly in periods when/after institutional reforms, privatization or FDI inflow took place and lost its importance several years after the shocks.
    Keywords: economic growth, production function, input factor contributions, total factor productivity, capacity utilization, aggregation, panel data.
    JEL: C14 C23 D24 O12 O47
    Date: 2008

This nep-tra issue is ©2008 by J. David Brown. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.