nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2007‒09‒16
thirteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
Heriot-Watt University

  1. Too little Destruction too little Creation: A Schumpeterian Diagnosis of Barriers to Sustained Growth in Ukraine By Christian Gianella; William Tompson
  2. Explaining China's Low Consumption: The Neglected Role of Household Income By Li Cui; Jahangir Aziz
  3. What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies? By Mark J Flanagan; Felix Hammermann
  4. Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Panel Regression Approach By Garbis Iradian
  5. Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Growth-Accounting Approach By Garbis Iradian
  6. Diversification and agrarian change under environmental constraints in rural China: Evidence from a poor township of Beijing municipality By Sylvie Démurger; Martin Fournier; Yang Weiyong
  7. Incorporating Undesirable Outputs into Malmquist TFP Index: Environmental Performance Growth of Chinese Coal-Fired Power Plants By Yang, H.; Pollitt, M.
  8. Investors' Behaviour in the Chinese Stock;Exchanges: Empirical Evidence in a Systemic;Approach By Giulio PALOMBA; Caterina LUCARELLI
  9. Pricing global and local sources of risk in Russian stock market By Saleem, Kashif; Vaihekoski, Mika
  10. Long-Term Effects Of The 1959-1961 China Famine: Mainland China and Hong Kong By Douglas Almond; Lena Edlund; Hongbin Li; Junsen Zhang
  11. Forest management policies and resource balance in China: an assessment of the current situation By Sylvie Démurger; Yang Weiyong; Hou Yuanzhao
  12. Economic Growth in Croatia: Potential and Constraints By David Moore; Athanasios Vamvakidis
  13. A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries By Irene Andreou; Gilles Dufrénot; Alain Sand; Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand

  1. By: Christian Gianella; William Tompson
    Abstract: This paper examines problems of entry, exit and competition in Ukrainian product markets. It finds that Ukraine still has too little of all three, and that exit mechanisms, in particular, function poorly. Since impediments to entry and exit are largely the product of excessive and ill administered regulation, the paper also provides a systematic assessment of product-market regulation in Ukraine, using indicators developed by the OECD Economics Department. Finally, the paper presents the main findings of two empirical studies concerned with the potentially large benefits of opening up markets, via both increased competition and further privatisation, for productivity growth in Ukraine. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Ukraine ( <P>Une insuffisance de création-destruction : un diagnostic schumpétérien des freins à la croissance en Ukraine <BR>Cet article examine les questions de concurrence, d’entrée et de sortie des entreprises sur le marché des biens. Il montre que toutes trois demeurent insuffisantes en Ukraine, et que les mécanismes de sortie du marché, en particulier, fonctionnent de manière très imparfaite. Compte tenu du fait que les barrières à l’entrée et à la sortie sont largement le produit d’une réglementation excessive et mal appliquée, l’article donne une évaluation systématique du niveau de réglementation du marché des biens en Ukraine, en utilisant les indicateurs développés par le Département des affaires économiques. Enfin, l’article expose les principaux résultats de deux études empiriques évaluant les effets bénéfiques sur la croissance de la productivité de l’ouverture des marchés, d’une part par un accroissement de la concurrence et d’autre part par la poursuite des privatisations. Ce document se rapporte à l’Etude économique de l’Ukraine 2007 (
    Keywords: product market regulation, competition, privatisation, réglementation sur les marchés des biens et du travail, concurrence, restructuring, restructuration, privatisation, entry, exit, Ukraine, Ukraine, creative destruction, destruction créatrice, entrée sur le marché, sortie sur le marché
    JEL: D24 D43 H11 L1 L5 L9 O12 P23
    Date: 2007–09–03
  2. By: Li Cui; Jahangir Aziz
    Abstract: The Chinese government has recently focused on the need to increase consumption to rebalance the economy. A widely held view is that despite China's remarkably high growth, the share of consumption in total expenditure has been low and declining due to high and rising saving rate of Chinese households as uncertainty over provision of pensions, and healthcare and education costs have increased since the mid-1990s. This paper finds that the rise in saving rate has been a minor factor. Much larger has been the role of the declining share of household income in national income, which has occurred across-the-board in wages, investment income, and government transfers. The paper finds that financial sector weaknesses, by restricting firms' access to bank financing for working capital, have played quantitatively a major role in keeping wage and investment income shares low and on a declining trend.
    Keywords: Working Paper , China, People's Republic of ,
    Date: 2007–07–26
  3. By: Mark J Flanagan; Felix Hammermann
    Abstract: Panel estimates based on 19 transition economies suggests that some central banks may aim at comparatively high inflation rates mainly to make up for, and to perhaps exploit, lagging internal and external liberalization in their economies. Out-of-sample forecasts, based on expected developments in the underlying structure of these economies, and assuming no changes in institutions, suggest that incentives may be diminishing, but not to the point where inflation levels below 5 percent could credibly be announced as targets. Greater economic liberalization would help reduce incentives for higher inflation, and enhancements to central bank independence could help shield these central banks from pressures.
    Date: 2007–07–31
  4. By: Garbis Iradian
    Abstract: This paper analytically explores and empirically tests a number of hypotheses to explain the rapid growth in transition economies. The paper finds that growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been higher because of the recovery of lost output, progress in macroeconomic stabilization and market reforms, and favorable external conditions. Some of these factors are unlikely to continue for a very long time. The challenge is to improve the investment climate in the non-primary sectors, which will require broadening the scope of macroeconomic reform into a second generation of reforms encompassing structural and institutional areas.
    Date: 2007–07–18
  5. By: Garbis Iradian
    Abstract: This paper uses the growth-accounting approach to determine the sources of growth in transition economies. The central conclusion is that the estimated total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the former Soviet Union republics were significantly higher than other fast growing economies. A key question for prospective growth is whether the TFP gains achieved thus far have already eliminated most of the inefficiencies of central planning-and will therefore soon fade away. Underutilized labor combined with the recent trend of faster capital accumulation may play a more important role in the medium-term growth.
    Date: 2007–07–17
  6. By: Sylvie Démurger (GATE CNRS); Martin Fournier (GATE CNRS); Yang Weiyong (University of International Business & Economics, Beijing, China)
    Abstract: This article illustrates the impact of changes related to market reforms and environmental policies on the economic structure in rural China by providing a comparative analysis of several villages in a poor township in Beijing municipality. Two main concomitant phenomena are affecting agricultural and non-agricultural choices in the studied area. First, the introduction of market mechanisms is encouraging local population to engage in new activities that are closer to local comparative advantages. Second, rural households are facing new constraints in the form of environmental protection measures, which have weakened traditional insurance channels provided by forest resources and cattle stock. Drawing on household-level survey data and interviews with village heads conducted in ten villages of Labagoumen township in December 2003, this article analyzes households decisions in response to market reforms and environmental constraints. We find large disparities both between villages and households in the diversification process and discuss the reasons of observed inertia in the region, most households still heavily relying on corn production.
    Keywords: agrarian change, Environmental protection, Income-source diversification, rural China
    JEL: O18 O53 Q10 R20
    Date: 2007–04
  7. By: Yang, H.; Pollitt, M.
    Abstract: In this article we examine the effects of undesirable outputs on the Malmquist TFP indices. Our empirical work uses an unbalanced panel which covers 796 utility and non-utility coal-fired power plants in China during 1996-2002. In order to meet the requirement of a balanced panel for calculating the Malmquist indices, an innovative fake unit approach has been introduced. Our final results show that (1) the growth of the Chinese electricity heavily depends upon an increase of resource input; and (2) huge potential remains with regards to the efficiency improvement and emissions control in Chinese coal-fired power plants. Key words: Malmquist indicies, total factor productivity, Chinese electricity, power plant efficiency.
    JEL: D24 L94
    Date: 2007
  8. By: Giulio PALOMBA ([n.a.]); Caterina LUCARELLI (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the Chinese mainland Stock Exchanges and their following;interconnecting features: savers' attitude towards stock investments,;investors' trading behaviour and stock returns explanations. We evaluate;the eectiveness of the recent eorts made by the Chinese authorities to;improve the level of legal protections for shareholders and the opening-up;of the Chinese Stock Markets to foreign investors. The whole analysis is;carried out through a system of simultaneous equations. The main results;are that Chinese shareholders and stock markets are mostly driven by emotional;behaviour. Stock market returns are barely influenced by the overall;chinese economic booming, but reveal the presence of speculative influences.;Investors' behaviour, as well as general trading activities, hardly seems to;be aected by the legal framework introduced by the national Authorities.
    Keywords: chinese stock exchanges, corporate governance, investors' behaviour, shareholders' rights, system of simultaneous equations
    JEL: C30 F30 G18
    Date: 2007–09
  9. By: Saleem, Kashif; Vaihekoski, Mika
    Abstract: In this paper we study international asset pricing models and pricing of global and local sources of risk in the Russian stock market using weekly data from 1999 to 2006. In our empirical specification, we utilize and extend the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998), by allowing conditional local influence as well. Similar to them we find global risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency risk components.
    Keywords: international asset pricing models; segmentation; currency risk; multivariate GARCH-M; Russia
    JEL: G15 G12
    Date: 2007–09–10
  10. By: Douglas Almond; Lena Edlund; Hongbin Li; Junsen Zhang
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of maternal malnutrition exploiting the 1959-1961 Chinese famine as a natural experiment. In the 1% sample of the 2000 Chinese Census, we find that fetal exposure to acute maternal malnutrition had compromised a range of socioeconomic outcomes, including: literacy, labor market status, wealth and marriage market outcomes. Women married spouses with less education and later, as did men, if at all. In addition, maternal malnutrition reduced the sex ratio (males to females) in two generations -- those prenatally exposed and their children -- presumably through heightened male mortality. This tendency toward female offspring is interpretable in light of the Trivers-Willard (1973) hypothesis, according to which parents in poor condition should skew the offspring sex ratio toward daughters. Hong Kong natality micro data from 1984-2004 further confirm this pattern of female offspring among mainland-born residents exposed to malnutrition in utero.
    JEL: I10 I12 J12 J13 J16 J24 P2
    Date: 2007–09
  11. By: Sylvie Démurger (GATE CNRS); Yang Weiyong (University of International Business & Economics, Beijing, China); Hou Yuanzhao (Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China)
    Abstract: Using the latest forest inventory, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of China’s forest sector by focusing on new forest trends, forest policy changes and challenges to achieve a sustainable forest management. We analyze the dynamics of forest resources and provide an impact assessment of forest policies on China’s forestry development over the last decades. Moreover, the analysis of the forest market highlights substantial disequilibria marked by a limited domestic supply potential and a growing demand for forest products satisfied by increasing imports. Internal and external solutions are explored and their implications for China and supplying countries are assessed.
    Keywords: China - Forest management - Forest resources
    JEL: O13 O53 Q23 Q28
    Date: 2007–04
  12. By: David Moore; Athanasios Vamvakidis
    Abstract: This paper examines the factors and constraints that affect recent and potential growth in Croatia, as well as policies that can influence it. On current productivity trends, it estimates Croatia's potential growth rate at 4-4½ percent, a result reasonably robust to different methodologies. To sustain growth at a higher rate in line with the authorities' aspirations, the analysis highlights the critical need to improve the business environment through further measures to reduce the administrative burden, legal uncertainties, and corruption. It also emphasizes the importance of attracting more greenfield foreign direct investment, and reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy through fiscal consolidation and faster privatization.
    Keywords: Economic growth , Croatia , Privatization , Foreign direct investment , Economic reforms , Working Paper ,
    Date: 2007–08–03
  13. By: Irene Andreou (GATE CNRS); Gilles Dufrénot (Université Paris 12, GREQAM); Alain Sand (GATE CNRS); Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand (GATE CNRS)
    Abstract: We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to determine whether a system produces true predictions of a crisis, but also whether there are forewarning signs of a forthcoming crisis prior to its actual occurrence. To this end, we adopt the approach initiated by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998), analyzing each indicator and calculating each threshold separately. We depart from this approach in that each country is also analyzed separately, permitting the creation of a more “custom-made” early warning system for each one.
    Keywords: composite indicator, currency crisis, early warning system
    JEL: F31 F47
    Date: 2007–04

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