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on Transition Economics |
By: | Kudo, Toshihiro |
Abstract: | Against the background of closer diplomatic, political and security ties between Myanmar and China since 1988, their economic relations have also grown stronger throughout the 1990s and up to 2005. China is now a major supplier of consumer and capital goods to Myanmar, in particular through border trade. China also provides a large amount of economic cooperation in the areas of infrastructure, energy and state-owned economic enterprises. Nevertheless, Myanmar’s trade with China has failed to have a substantial impact on its broad-based economic and industrial development. China’s economic cooperation apparently supports the present regime, but its effects on the whole economy will be limited with an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and distorted incentives structure. As a conclusion, strengthened economic ties with China will be instrumental in regime survival, but will not be a powerful force affecting the process of economic development in Myanmar. |
Keywords: | Myanmar (Burma), China, trade, border trade, economic cooperation, energy, oil and gas, International economic relations, International trade, International cooperation |
JEL: | F14 P28 Q41 |
Date: | 2006–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper66&r=tra |
By: | Thomas Rawski |
Abstract: | Recent years have brought major changes in many dimensions of China’s large and dynamic economy. Issues of employment and unemployment, labor compensation, wage differentials, working conditions, migration, job mobility, and employment security figure prominently in these developments. This essay reviews recent developments in the Chinese labor scene, focusing successively on demographics, employment, unemployment, migration, productivity, wages, and distribution. The paper concludes with speculation about possible policy responses to China’s growing problems of unemployment and excess labor supply. |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:280&r=tra |
By: | Thomas Rawski |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:282&r=tra |
By: | Yongbok Jeon |
Abstract: | The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979-2002. For the income elasticity of import demand, an aggregate import demand function for the Chinese economy is estimated using ARDL-UECM model and the bounds test. This study finds (1) that for 1979-2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts, the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of demand-side approach to economic growth in China. |
Keywords: | Chinese economy, balance-of-payment constrained growth, aggregate import function, trade multiplier, bounds test for cointegration |
JEL: | F14 F43 O53 |
Date: | 2006–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2006_06&r=tra |
By: | Imai, Kenichi |
Abstract: | In the recent decade China witnessed an upsurge of privatization of small and medium state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast to the consequent sharp reduction in the number of firms, however, the estimated share of broadly-defined SOEs that includes limited liabilities companies controlled by the State has shown virtually no sign of decline. We explain the backgrounds of this seemingly paradoxical persistence of state-ownership by looking into two distinctive types of large SOEs: traditional SOEs that remain dominant in oligopolistic industries and manager-controlled SOEs surviving in competitive industries. The two types exemplify several factors constraining further progress of SOE reform such as, financing the costs of restructuring, redefining the role of the State as the single dominant shareholder, and balancing the interests of the State and managers as entrepreneurs. Sorting these issues out will take time, which means that instabilities associated with state corporate ownership will remain in place in the foreseeable future in China. |
Keywords: | State-owned enterprise, Corporate governance, China’s economic reform, Public enterprises, Small and medium-scale enterprises, Industrial management, China |
JEL: | L29 L32 P26 |
Date: | 2006–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper64&r=tra |
By: | Yanagawa, Noriyuki; Ito, Seiro; Watanabe, Mariko |
Abstract: | It is widely recognized that trade credit is an important financial mechanism, particularly in developing economies and transition economies where institutions are weak. This paper documents theoretical analysis and empirical accounts on what facilitates an effective supply of trade credit based on original surveys conducted in P.R. of China. Our theory predicts that trade volume and trade credit are increasing function of cash held by the buyer and enforcement technology of the seller. Furthermore, if the state sector’s enforcement technology is high, it has positive external effect to expand the volumes of trade credit and trades in the whole economy. From the data, we found that government made active commitment in enforcement of trade credit contract and the government owned firms are main supplier and receivers of trade credit, which suggest that enforcement by government and state sector were effective against presumptions in the previous literatures. |
Keywords: | Law and finance, Economic growth, Incomplete contract, Enforcement, Trade policy, Credit, China |
JEL: | G2 K0 O5 P31 Q5 |
Date: | 2006–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper58&r=tra |
By: | Thomas Rawski; Loren Brandt; Xiaodong Zhu |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:281&r=tra |
By: | Lindbeck, Assar |
Abstract: | The author applies a systems-oriented " holistic " approach to China ' s radical economic reforms during the past quarter of a century. He characterizes China ' s economic reforms in terms of a multidimensional classification of economic systems. When looking at the economic consequences of China ' s change of economic system, he deals with both the impressive growth performance and its economic costs. The author also studies the consequences of the economic reforms for the previous social arrangements in the country, which were tied to individual work units-agriculture communes, collective firms, and state-owned enterprises. He continues with the social development during the reform period, reflecting a complex mix of social advances, mainly in terms of poverty reduction, and regresses for large population groups in terms of income security and human services, such as education and, in particular, health care. Next, the author discusses China ' s future policy options in the social field, whereby he draws heavily on relevant experiences in industrial countries over the years. The future options are classified into three broad categories: policies influencing the level and distribution of factor income, income transfers including social insurance, and the provision of human services. |
Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Banks & Banking Reform,Investment and Investment Climate,Privatization,Economic Systems |
Date: | 2006–11–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4057&r=tra |
By: | Theocharis N. Grigoriadis; Benno Torgler |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the relative impact of regional energy production on the legislative choices of Russian Duma deputies on energy regulation between 1994 and 2003. We apply Poole’s optimal classification method of roll call votes using an ordered probit model to explain energy law reform in the first decade of Russia’s democratic transition. Our goal is to analyze the relative importance of home energy on deputies’ behavior, controlling for other factors such as party affiliation, electoral mandate, committee membership and socio-demographic parameters. We observe that energy resource factors have a considerable effect on deputies’ voting behavior. On the other hand, we concurrently find that regional economic preferences are constrained by the public policy priorities of the federal center that continue to set the tone in energy law reform in post-Soviet Russia. |
Keywords: | energy regulation; energy roll law reform; energy resources; roll call votes; legislative politics; State Duma; Russia |
JEL: | Q40 D72 K23 P27 P37 P31 R11 |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2006-25&r=tra |
By: | Christos Papazoglou (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and Panteion University) |
Abstract: | Two major stylized facts that emerged during the early transition experience of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe were the fall in output and the appreciation of the real exchange rate. In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical explanation, beyond that found in the existing literature, for the emergence of these two facts, which relies on the role of two basic characteristics of these economies in the early stages of transition. The first refers to their structure involving the existence of an almost liberalized price system for domestic output, a large part of which, however, was still produced by state firms and the second to the nature of the disturbances they initially encountered. |
Keywords: | Transition economies, real exchange rate dynamics, output decline, structural reform, price liberalization. |
JEL: | F41 |
Date: | 2005–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:29&r=tra |
By: | Camara, Modibo K.; Montes-Negret, Fernando |
Abstract: | The objective of this paper is not to review the pros and cons of deposit insurance systems, but to focus, rather narrowly, on the recent adoption of a deposit insurance system (DIS) in Russia, the rationale offered, and the potential impact it might have on the stability and development of the Russian banking system. An attempt is made to draw some lessons from the implementation experience in Russia. The paper starts with a brief description of the Russian DIS, followed by an overview of the banking system ' s structure and some observations on the sequencing followed for adopting the DIS and the political economy of its adoption. It concludes with a discussion of areas requiring attention. |
Keywords: | Banks & Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Financial Crisis Management & Restructuring,Corporate Law,Insurance & Risk Mitigation |
Date: | 2006–11–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4056&r=tra |
By: | Balázs Égert (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria); Peter Backé (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria); Tina Zumer (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany) |
Abstract: | This paper analyzes the equilibrium level of private credit to GDP in 11 Central and Eastern European countries in order to see whether the high credit growth recently observed in some of these countries led to above equilibrium private credit-to-GDP levels. We use estimation results obtained for a panel of small open OECD economies (out-of-sample panel) to derive the equilibrium credit level for a panel of transition economies (in-sample panel). We opt for this (out-of-sample) approach because the coe¢ cient estimates for transition economies are fairly unstable. We show that there is a large amount of uncertainty to determine the equilibrium level of private credit. Yet our results indicate that a number of countries are very close or even above the estimated equilibrium levels, whereas others are still well below the equilibrium level. JEL Classification: C31, C33, E44, G21. |
Keywords: | Credit to the private sector, credit growth, equilibrium level of credit, initial undershooting, transition economies. |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060687&r=tra |
By: | Hendrik P. van Dalen (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam) |
Abstract: | Does medical insurance affect health care demand and in the end contribute to improvements in the health status? Evidence for China for the year 2004, by means of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), shows that health insurance does not affect health care demand in a significant manner. Counterfactuals suggest that full insurance coverage of the Chinese population will not radically change the health care decisions and may even enlarge the perverse effects of today’s health care system: insured persons are more likely to fall back on self-care when they are injured or ill than on the care of a local clinic. This effect is particularly strong in urban areas. In case of a severe injury hospital consultation is preferred to local clinic or self-care by most people, but still a substantial percentage (20 percent) resorts to self-care or ignores the illness. The high level of out-of-pocket expenses paid by both insured and uninsured patients lies at t! he root of this problem. Insurance does not offer real protection against unpredictable high health care expenditures and can lead people into a position of long-term poverty or serious liquidity problems. |
Keywords: | health insurance; poverty; China; health care; market failure |
JEL: | D12 H51 I11 I18 P36 |
Date: | 2006–10–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060091&r=tra |
By: | Lorenzo Cappiello (DG Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany); Bruno Gérard (Mellon Capital Management, 595 Market Street Suite 3000, San Francisco, CA 94105.); Arjan Kadareja; Simone Manganelli (DG Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany) |
Abstract: | This study assesses the degree of financial integration for a selected number of new EU member states between themselves and with the euro zone. Within the framework of a factor model for market returns, we measure integration as the amount of variance explained by the common factor relative to the local components. We show that this measure of integration coincides with return correlation. Correlations are proxied by comovements, estimated via a regression quantile-based methodology. We find that the largest new member states, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, exhibit strong comovements both between themselves and with the euro area. As for smaller countries, only Estonia and to a less extent Cyprus show increased integration both with the euro zone and the block of large economies. In the bond markets, we document an increase in integration only for the Czech Republic versus Germany and Poland. JEL Classification: C32, F30, G12. |
Keywords: | Integration, new EU member states, regression quantile. |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060683&r=tra |
By: | Thomas Rawski |
Abstract: | During the last four decades of the twentieth century, China`s economy produced a truly remarkable sequence of events. The Great Leap Forward of 1958-60 initiated a twenty-year interlude of widespread hunger and deprivation. Twenty years later, the reform policies of the late 1970s triggered a massive and unexpected economic boom that catapulted hundreds of millions from absolute poverty. This experience raises profound questions about links between culture, institutions and economy, a central focus of C.K. Yang=s distinguished research career. |
Date: | 2002–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:279&r=tra |
By: | Li Gan; Lixin Colin Xu; Yang Yao |
Abstract: | Using a sample of households in 48 Chinese villages for the period 1986-2002, this paper studies the dynamic effects of major health shocks on household income and the role played by village elections in mitigating these effects. Our results show that in the first 15 years after a shock, a shock-hit household on average falls short of its normal income trajectory by 11.8% and its recovery would take 19 years. Based on the premise that shock-hit families impose negative externalities on richer families by borrowing from them, our political economy model predicts that the outcome of village elections would differ from that of a standard median voter model in that the elected village leaders tend to adopt pro-poor policies. Our empirical study finds that villages are more likely to establish a healthcare plan after the election is introduced. In addition, village elections reduce the probability of a household to borrow by 16.7% when one of its working adults is seriously sick. As a result, they reduce more than half of the negative effect of a health shock on household income. |
JEL: | I12 O15 Z13 |
Date: | 2006–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12686&r=tra |
By: | Shirley Cassing |
Abstract: | . . . |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:285&r=tra |
By: | Takeuchi, Takayuki |
Abstract: | Ever since the handover of the territory in 1997, Hong Kong has had its own unique law and itsown economic system and international legal personality, and has not been integrated withMainland China. The Basic Law guarantees the uniqueness of the Hong Kong SAR until 2047. But close economic ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland will promote closer economic integration. The Basic Law limits only a customs union and the introduction of a single currency, but not the formation of a Free Trade Agreement (hereafter FTA) and monetary union. FTA has already been realized in the form of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (hereafter CEPA). The Hong Kong SAR government, including the bureaucrat as well as the Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa, was opposed to, and hesitant towards, the formation of a regional trade agreement with the Mainland, but the business community made them to adopt a positive attitude towards the CEPA. It is unclear how much integration can been deepened, but it can be argued that the current policy of the Hong Kong SAR is too supportive of business, and an excessive degree of economic integration may threaten the uniqueness of Hong Kong. But if Hong Kong achieves democracy and enjoys complete autonomy, it will be easy for economic integration to co-exist with the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ approach, in the interests of the business community and of the citizens of the SAR. |
Keywords: | Hong Kong, China, Integration, Politic, FTA, Economic systems, Economic policy |
JEL: | F15 H77 K00 N45 P16 |
Date: | 2006–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper70&r=tra |
By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University); Chia-Hui Lu (Academia Sinica, Taiwan) |
Abstract: | We extend Antras and Helpman (2004) on firm heterogeneity and organizational choice to a dynamic setting with FDI uncertainty, in which the probability of investment failure decreases with the host country's infrastructure level and increases with the technological complexity facing each firm. Moreover, it decreases over time as the accumulated mass of firms succeeding in FDI increases. We show that a minimum level of infrastructure is required to trigger a first wave of industrial migration. We then formalize the often noted "magnet effect" of FDI-the first wave of industrial migration generates positive externality (information spillover) for subsequent investors, which stimulates a second wave of industrial migration. The process continues until the power of the "magnet" reaches its steady-state level. In contrast with the predictions in Antras and Helpman (2004), we show that firms with intermediate productivity levels are the ones migrate first, while the most productive and the least productive firms tend to stay behind. This non-monotonic relationship between firms' productivity and their FDI propensities is consistent with the patterns of Taiwanese firms undertaking FDI in China. |
Date: | 2006–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:21-2006&r=tra |
By: | Daniela Irrera |
Abstract: | In the last few years, Albania, as well as other South Eastern and Mediterranean countries, have shown increased growth in corruption affecting every level of political power. Organized crime is becoming more sophisticated as it consolidates links between Albanian clans and the wider criminal world. According to the EU, the FBI and other police organization reports, while the situation concerning organized crime and corruption is grave throughout the Balkans, it is especially so in Albania, even as its authorities are continuing to implement talks for future membership in the EU. Efforts to combat this problem have thus far been insufficient. Authorities appear to not admit the full extent of criminal links among individuals across state offices, the police and politics. In many areas the traffickers work with the complicity of police and customs officials and enjoy the protection of high-ranking politicians. Corruption remains endemic and is destined to seriously undermine efforts for democratization of the society. This is a sort of vicious cycle: every institution in Albania is affected by organized crime which hampers democracy and economic development; any attempts to change the situation, like the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe seem to be ineffective. This paper aims to analyze the problem of corruption and illegality in the current period in Albania and to measure its infiltration, via local authorities, into every level of the political, economic and social life. |
Keywords: | EU-East-Central Europe; transparency; democratization; civil society; pre-negotiation |
Date: | 2006–05–15 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0173&r=tra |
By: | Okamoto, Ikuko |
Abstract: | Creating a rice marketing system has been one of the central policy issues in Myanmar's move to a market economy since the end of the 1980s. Two liberalizations of rice marketing were implemented in 1987 and 2003. This paper examines the essential aspects of the liberalizations and the subsequent transformation of Myanmar's rice marketing sector. It attempts to bring into clearer focus the rationale of the government's rice marketing reforms which is to maintain a stable supply of rice at a low price to consumers. Under this rationale, however, the state rice marketing sector continued to lose efficiency while the private sector was allowed to develop on condition that it did not jeopardize the rationale of stable supply at low price. The paper concludes that the prospect for the future development of the private rice marketing sector is dim since a change in the rice market's rationale is unlikely. Private rice exporting is unlikely to be permitted, while the domestic market is approaching the saturation point. Thus, there is little momentum for the private rice sector to undertake any substantial expansion of investment. |
Keywords: | Myanmar, Rice, Marketing system, Liberalization, Marketing, Transition to market economy |
JEL: | P39 Q13 Q18 |
Date: | 2006–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper43&r=tra |
By: | Avdagic, Sabina |
Keywords: | institutionalism; path dependence; corporatism; industrial relations; post-Communism; transition processes; interest representation; trade unions; game theory; political opportunity structure |
Date: | 2006–10–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:mpifgx:p0073&r=tra |
By: | Manfred Horn; Claudia Kemfert; Vitaly Kalashnikov |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of the eastern enlargement of the European Union in 2004 and the liberalisation of European electricity markets on Germanys electricity exchange with neighbouring countries and on electricity prices. Thus, electricity imports from Czech Republic have increased sharply in the last few years and have dampened German wholesale prices for electricity. In this paper the EMELIE simulation model, a game theoretic model for the European electricity market, is applied to analyse possible long-term effects of these changes. In the model calculations it is assumed that competition will prevail on the European electricity market in 2030, as far as possible with the existing transmission capacities. Primary energy prices are assumed to increase moderately from 2004 to 2030 (30 % for gas and 15 % for hard coal), and the price for CO2-certificats is assumed to remain high (€25/t). It is further assumed that Germany sticks to the aim to shut down nuclear power stations [...] |
Keywords: | Solow model, regional convergence, spatial lags, spatial filtering |
Date: | 2006 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp632&r=tra |
By: | Filip Jasinski |
Abstract: | As a world-wide problem, trafficking in human beings now attracts some well-deserved attention after years of political reservation and operational hesitation in European Union Member States. This working paper examines a particular aspect of the EU policy against this phenomenon: its change vis-à-vis the 2004 enlargement to the East. As the topics, actors and activities on the anti-trafficking scene multiply, national co-ordination of the fight against trafficking in human beings is in need of several improvements. The following ideas derive from research performed in Florence, as well as from consultations with anti-trafficking experts and the study of official documents of international organisations and governments. 'Pooling of resources', together with the creation of a national coordinator, are the key concepts of the envisaged enhanced model of Poland's policy. |
Keywords: | Poland; immigration policy; asylum policy; cross-border crime; enlargement |
Date: | 2006–05–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0172&r=tra |
By: | Kuchiki, Akifumi |
Abstract: | It is expected that an Asian triangle of growth will be formed in the coming few decades. China, India and ASEAN surround the Asian triangle, which is home to many industrial clusters. Multinational corporations will link these clusters together. Regional integration will help them in this task by lowering the barriers of national borders. This paper explains the necessity of regional integration for cluster-to-cluster linkages in the Asian triangle of growth. |
Keywords: | Asian Triangle of growth, Regional integration, Cluster-to-cluster linkages, Economic growth, International economic integration, Industrial policy, ASEAN, Asia, China, India, Southeast Asia |
JEL: | F23 F59 R12 R58 |
Date: | 2006–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper71&r=tra |
By: | Minoas Koukouritakis (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece); Leo Michelis (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada) |
Abstract: | This paper uses cointegration and common trends techniques to investigate empirically the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for the 10 new EU countries, along with Bulgaria and Romania. The empirical results support the expectations theory of the term structure for all countries except Malta. By decomposing each term structure into its transitory and permanent components, we also analyze short run and long run interdependence among the term structures of interest rates in these countries. Our results indicate weak linkages among the term structures of the 10 new EU countries, and strong linkages between Bulgaria and Romania that hope to join the EU in 2007. |
Keywords: | Term Structure, EU Enlargement, Cointegration, Common Trends, Granger Causality |
JEL: | E43 F15 F42 |
Date: | 2005 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crt:wpaper:0505&r=tra |
By: | Kemp, R. (UNU-MERIT); van den Bergh, J. (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit and Institute for Environmental Studies) |
Abstract: | Currently, there is much interest in stimulating or 'speeding up' socio-technical transitions to sustainable systems, most notably in the sectors of energy, transport and agriculture. This essay attempts to assess whether and how 'transition' type problems and issues are being addressed in the various sub-disciplines and methodological approaches of economics. This allows us to identify concepts, ideas, theories and empirical methods in economics that are suitable for inclusion and elaboration in 'transition research'. Surprisingly, we find that many sub-disciplines of economics have in one way or another addressed problems similar to transitions. Our main conclusion therefore is that economics offers a rich palette of ideas that may be useful for transition research. Studies on development stages, long waves, technological path-dependency, conflict resolution, public investments, emergence of institutions and, transitions from communist to market-democracy systems seem especially relevant to the study of transition. Although mainstream economics conflicts in certain ways with the approach called for by many involved in transition research, we show that economics certainly has something to offer to the study of transitions. |
Keywords: | Sustainable Development, Technological Change, Economic Development |
JEL: | Q01 O13 O33 |
Date: | 2006 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2006038&r=tra |