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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Qian, Yingyi; Roland, Gérard; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | We compare results from a pilot study on entrepreneurship in China and Russia. Compared to non-entrepreneurs, Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs have more entrepreneurs in their family and among childhood friends, value work more relative to leisure and have higher wealth ambitions. Russian entrepreneurs have a better educational background and their parents were more likely to have been members of the communist party but Chinese entrepreneurs are more risk-taking and greedy and have more entrepreneurs among their childhood friends. |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5705&r=tra |
| By: | Vladimir Popov (NES) |
| Abstract: | This paper starts by separating the transformational recession (reduction of output in most transition economies in the first half of the 1990s) from the process of economic growth (recovery from the transformational recession) in 28 transition economies (including China,Vietnam and Mongolia). It is argued that the former (the collapse of output during transition) can be best explained as adverse supply shock caused mostly by a change in relative prices after their deregulation due to distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns accumulated during the period of central planning, and by the collapse of state institutions during transition period, while the speed of liberalization, to the extent it was endogenous, i.e. determined by political economy factors, had an adverse effect on performance. In contrast, at the recovery stage the ongoing liberalization starts to affect growth positively, whereas the impact of pre-transition distortions disappears. Institutional capacity and reasonable macroeconomic policy, however, continue to be important prerequisites for successful performance. |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0068&r=tra |
| By: | Hasan, Iftekhar (BOFIT); Wachtel , Paul (BOFIT); Zhou, Mingming (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | There have been profound changes in both political and economic institutions in China over the last twenty years. Moreover, the pace of transition has led to variation across the country in the level of development. In this paper, we use panel data for the Chinese provinces to study the role of legal institutions, financial deepening and political pluralism on growth rates. The most important institutional developments for a transition economy are the emergence and legalization of the market economy, the establishment of secure property rights, the growth of a private sector, the development of financial sector institutions and markets, and the liberalization of political institutions. We develop measures of these phenomena, which are used as explanatory variables in regression models to explain provincial GDP growth rates. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, legal environment, awareness of property rights and political pluralism are associated with stronger growth. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; institutions; financial markets; China |
| JEL: | O16 O53 P14 P16 |
| Date: | 2006–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2006_012&r=tra |
| By: | Dorothea Rieck (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of second births in Russia before and during the economic and political transition. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey and apply the method of hazard regression, we find a strong period effect: whereas the second birth risk increased in the 1980s, it decreased significantly after 1992. This effect remains even after controlling for individual characteristics. We argue that the dramatic increase in economic and social uncertainties after the collapse of the communist system in Russia is responsible for the fertility reduction. |
| Keywords: | Russia, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-036&r=tra |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Qian, Yingyi; Roland, Gérard; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | Social scientists studying the determinants of entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct perspectives: the role of institutions, the role of social networks and the role of personal characteristics. We conduct a survey from five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship in view of these three perspectives. Using data from a pilot study with over 2,000 interviews in 7 cities across China, we find that controlling for institutional environment entrepreneurs in China are much more likely to have family members who are entrepreneurs as well as childhood friends who became entrepreneurs, suggesting that social environment plays an important role in entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs also differ strongly from non-entrepreneurs in their attitudes toward risks and their work-leisure preferences, echoing Schumpeter. Finally, failed entrepreneurs score the worst on aptitude tests, but have the best self-reported performance in school and perceive the business environment as least favourable. |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5706&r=tra |
| By: | A. MORDONU |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to assess the possible trade diversion from the Russian Federation caused by the 2004 EU enlargement to 10 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Left out of the club, Russia has been confronted with potential losses of CEECs and EU15 markets. The effect of the factual enlargement is approximated by the transformations introduced by earlier regional integration in the region. The Europe Agreements (EA) and other Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) among the CEECs anticipated most of the transformations related to the EU enlargement, at least as far as trade is concerned. The method rests on the gravity model enriched with the Michaely indices of potential trade diversion, potential trade creation and export compatibility, as a new measure for trade diversion and trade creation. The use of the indices in this context provides several advantages over the use of PTA dummies. They constitute a more accurate measure of trade diversion, they can be correctly estimated since they are not incorporated in the bilateral importer-exporter effects and they do not suffer from endogeneity. In our exercise, the dynamic panel setting reveals to be the correct specification, from a theoretical and empirical point of view. The results of the estimations do not confirm the trade diversion hypothesis for the aggregated data. Although intra-EU25 trade increased tremendously, this was not at the expense of Russian exports. The low level of Russian exports to the EU and the CEECs could thus be caused by other factors than the EU enlargement. |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:06/394&r=tra |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten; Laeven, Luc |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the recent literature on economic institutions and the origins of economic development, we offer a political economy explanation of why institution building has varied so much across transition economies. We identify dependence on natural resources and the historical experience of these countries during socialism as major determinants of institution building during transition. Using natural resource reliance and the years under socialism to extract the exogenous component of institution building, we also show the importance of institutions in explaining the variation in economic development and growth across transition economies during the first decade of transition. |
| Keywords: | economic development; institutions; transition economies |
| JEL: | O10 P20 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5718&r=tra |
| By: | Amelie Constant (IZA Bonn, Georgetown University and DIW Berlin); Martin Kahanec (IZA Bonn); Klaus F. Zimmermann (IZA Bonn, Bonn University, DIW Berlin and Free University Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Ethnic differences are often considered to be powerful sources of diverse economic behavior. In this paper, we investigate whether and how ethnicity affects Ukrainian labor market outcomes. Using micro data from the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS) and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of earnings, we find a persistent and rising labor market divide between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians throughout Ukraine’s transition era. We establish that language rather than nationality is the key factor behind this ethnic premium favoring Russians. Our findings further document that this premium is larger among males than among females. |
| Keywords: | ethnicity, earnings differences, discrimination, transitional labor markets, ethnic premium |
| JEL: | J15 J70 J82 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2330&r=tra |
| By: | Girma, Sourafel; Gong, Yundan; Görg, Holger |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether inward FDI, either at the firm or industry level, has any impact on product innovation by Chinese State owned enterprises (SOEs). We use a comprehensive firm level panel data set of Chinese SOEs covering the period 1999 to 2003. Our results show that foreign capital participation is associated with higher innovative activity. Inward FDI in the sector has a negative effect on innovative activity in SOEs. However, there is a positive effect of FDI on SOEs that export, invest in human capital or R&D, or have prior innovation experience. We also find that SOEs with internal R&D activity and human capital development are successful innovators. Hence, our results suggest that rather than relying on sector level inward FDI to improve domestic innovative activity, it is important to get the firm-level fundamentals right. |
| Keywords: | China; competition; FDI; innovation; spillovers; state-owned enterprises |
| JEL: | F23 O31 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5838&r=tra |
| By: | Piketty, Thomas; Qian, Nancy |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the prospects for income tax reform in China during the coming decade (with a comparison to India), and argues that such reforms should rank high on the policy agenda in these two countries. Due to high average income growth and sharply rising top income shares during the 1990s and early 2000s, progressive income taxation is about to raise non-trivial tax revenues in China and India and to become an important political object. According to our projections, the income tax should raise at least 4% of Chinese GDP in 2010 (versus less than 1% in 2000 and 0,1% in 1990), in spite of the 20% nominal rise in the exemption threshold that took effect in 2004. The fact that progressive income taxation is becoming an important policy tool has important consequences for China’s ability to finance social spending and to keep under control the rise in income inequality associated to globalization and growth. Due to faster income growth and to a higher fraction of wage earners in the labor force, the prospects for income tax development look better in China than in India. This potential is however limited by the fact that Chinese top wage-earners are under-taxed relatively to top non-wage income earners. |
| Keywords: | income distribution; income taxation |
| JEL: | E25 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5703&r=tra |
| By: | Dwayne Benjamin (University of Toronto); Loren Brandt (University of Toronto); John Giles (Michigan State University and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | We explore the relationship between the level of village inequality in 1986, and the subsequent growth of household incomes from 1986 to 1999. Using a detailed householdlevel data set from rural China, we find robust evidence that initial inequality is negatively related to subsequent household income growth. We are able to address a number of econometric issues that affect the use of aggregate data for this exercise, especially measurement error and aggregation: Our results strongly suggest that village inequality has an external adverse impact on household-level income trajectories. However, once we account for possibly fixed village-level unobserved heterogeneity, we find no evidence that changes in inequality are correlated with household income growth: Whatever factor drives the inequality-growth relationship only operates in the “long run.” We explore several possible avenues by which initial inequality – or an unobserved variable correlated with it – affects household income growth. While we do not find the precise mechanism, our findings point toward a class of explanations based on collective choice (like the provision of public goods or determination of local taxes), and away from credit-market based explanations. |
| Keywords: | inequality, growth, rural China, panel data |
| JEL: | O12 O15 P20 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2344&r=tra |
| By: | John Giles (Michigan State University and IZA Bonn); Ren Mu (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial increases in income for families in rural China. This paper asks how participation is affected by elder parent health. We find that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill. Poor elder parent health has less impact on the probability of employment as a migrant when an adult child has siblings who may be available to provide care. We also highlight the potential importance of including information on non-resident family members when studying how parent illness and elder care requirements influence the labor supply decisions of adult children. |
| Keywords: | migration, health, aging, rural China |
| JEL: | O12 O15 I12 J14 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2333&r=tra |
| By: | Lane, Philip R.; Schmukler, Sergio |
| Abstract: | Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China’s FDI liabilities), these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are “short equity, long debt.” Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the last decade although, based on their income level, neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. Domestic financial developments and policies seem essential in understanding these patterns of integration. These include financial liberalization and exchange rate policies; domestic financial sector policies; and the impact of financial reform on savings and investment rates. Changes in these factors will affect the international financial integration of China and India (through shifts in capital flows and asset/liability holdings) and, consequently, the international financial system. |
| Keywords: | capital flows; China; financial integration; India; world economy |
| JEL: | F02 F30 F31 F32 F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5852&r=tra |
| By: | Obstfeld, Maurice |
| Abstract: | In the face of huge balance of payments surpluses and internal inflationary pressures, China has been in a classic conflict between internal and external balance under its dollar currency peg. Over the longer term, China’s large, modernizing, and diverse economy will need exchange rate flexibility and, eventually, convertibility with open capital markets. A feasible and attractive exit strategy from the essentially fixed RMB exchange rate would be a two-stage approach, consistent with the steps already taken since July 2005, but going beyond them. First, establish a limited trading band for the RMB relative to a basket of major trading partner currencies. Set the band so that it allows some initial revaluation of the RMB against the dollar, manage the basket rate within the band if necessary, and widen the band over time as domestic foreign exchange markets develop. Second, put on hold ad hoc measures of financial account liberalization. They will be less helpful for relieving exchange rate pressures once the RMB/basket rate is allowed to move flexibly within a band, and they are best postponed until domestic foreign exchange markets develop further, the exchange rate is fully flexible, and the domestic financial system has been strengthened and placed on a market-oriented basis. |
| Keywords: | China balance of payments; China currency; fixed exchange rate exit strategy; renminbi |
| JEL: | F32 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5771&r=tra |
| By: | Kirill Sosunov (Higher School of Economics); Oleg Zamulin (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005 can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is assumed to be permanent. |
| Keywords: | Real exchange rate; Commodity prices |
| JEL: | F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083&r=tra |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Miguel, Edward; Qian, Yingyi; Roland, Gérard; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | Studies of the determinants of entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct perspectives: market institutions, social networks and personal characteristics. Using data from a pilot survey with over 2,000 interviews in 7 cities across Russia, we find evidence for a particularly strong effect of social networks: individuals whose relatives and childhood friends are entrepreneurs are more than twice as likely to be entrepreneurs. Mothers’ characteristics play a significant role in determining future entrepreneurs. |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5707&r=tra |
| By: | Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky; Konstantin Sonin; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya |
| Abstract: | We study the nature of judicial bias in bankruptcy proceedings following the enactment of bankruptcy law in Russia in 1998. We find that regional political characteristics affected judicial decisions about the numbers and types of bankruptcy procedures initiated after the law took effect. In particular, controlling for indicators of firms' insolvency and the quality of the regional judiciary, reorganization procedures were significantly more frequent in regions with politically popular governors and governors who had hostile relations with the federal government. Poor judicial quality was also associated with higher incidence of reorganizations. In addition, the quality of the regional judiciary affected performance of firms in reorganization procedure: in regions with poor judicial quality firms in reorganization significantly underperformed firms not in bankruptcy; while the opposite was true in regions with high-quality judges. The effect of judicial quality on restructuring is particularly strong in regions with politically popular governors because the judicial bias in governor's favor is the highest in poor-quality courts when governors are popular. This evidence is consistent with previously reported anecdotes that suggested that politically strong regional governors used bankruptcy proceedings to protect firms from paying federal taxes. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2006-30&r=tra |
| By: | Kirill Sosunov (Higher School of Economics); Oleg Zamulin (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the ability of monetary authorities to keep the real exchange rate undervalued over the long run by implementing a policy of accumulating foreign exchange reserves. We consider a model of a three-sector, small, open economy, where the central bank continuously purchases foreign currency reserves and compare the results to Russian and Chinese economies in recent years. Both countries appear to pursue reserve accumulation policies. We find a clear trade-o between the steady state levels of the real exchange rate and inflation. After calibration, the model predicts an 8.5% real undervaluation of the Russian currency and a 13.7% undervaluation of the Chinese currency. Predicted inflation is found to match observed levels. |
| Keywords: | Real exchange rate targeting, foreign exchange reserves, Dutch disease |
| JEL: | E52 F4 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0082&r=tra |
| By: | Stanislav Anatolyev (NES); Dmitry Shakin |
| Abstract: | We investigate the distribution and evolution of intertrade durations for frequently traded stocks at the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. We use a flexible econometric model based on ARMA and GARCH which, when coupled with a certain class of distributions that allow for skewness and slim-tailedness, adequately captures the characteristics of conditional distribution of durations for Russian stocks, and is able to generate high quality density forecasts. We also analyze what factors determine the dynamics of logdurations and in which way. The results in particular indicate that the Russian market is characterized by aggressive informed traders and timid liquidity traders, and that the participants react evenly to upward and downward short-run price trends. |
| Keywords: | High frequency data; Trading intensity; Intertrade durations; ACD model; ARMA–GARCH model; Market microstructure. |
| JEL: | C22 C41 G10 G15 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0070&r=tra |
| By: | Kamil Dybczak |
| Abstract: | The government intertemporal budget constraint states that all public liabilities have to be financed by either current or future generations. The generational accounting approach incorporates the expected demographic development and the parameters of the current fiscal policy into the intertemporal government budget constraint. By contrast with the public debt and deficit, the indicators based on generational accounting are forward looking and provide us with additional information about the current fiscal policy. To assess the sustainability of public budgets we constructed the first set of generational accounts for the Czech Republic. We found that a representative living agent obtains more benefits than he/she pays in taxes in 2004, i.e. the generational account of this representati ve agent is negative. In addition, the total amount of the government liabilities resulting from the current fiscal policy pursued to 2150 reaches about 300% of GDP in 2004. Finally, the costs of postponed adjustment of government revenues and expenditures seem to be considerable. We conclude that the present fiscal policy is not sustainable, i.e. public budgets in the Czech Republic should be stabilized by changing the current system of taxes and benefits to reflect potential demographic development. |
| Keywords: | . Fiscal sustainability, generational accounting. |
| JEL: | H61 H62 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/2&r=tra |
| By: | Arjan Lejour; Vladimir Solanic; Paul Tang |
| Abstract: | The dynamic effects from EU membership are crucial for the new member states to catch up with the average income level in the old member states. To gauge the dynamic effects, we follow a two-step procedure in which a gravity equation for bilateral trade shows the trade effect of EU membership and a growth regression yields the income effect of trade. Shared EU membership is found to increase trade between two of its member states with about 34%. EU membership may contribute to trade by inducing countries to improve the quality of their institutions. Trade increases by another 22% if institutions improve, yielding a total trade increase of 56%. Improved openness increases income by 37.5% according to our estimates. Adding a small direct effect of improved institutions on income, the total income effect of EU membership is 39% for the ten new members. This implies that EU membership, or its effect on trade and institutions, could lead to large economic gains for the new member states, but does not bring them economically on par with the old member states. |
| Keywords: | income and openness; EU accession; gravity equation |
| JEL: | F15 F43 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:72&r=tra |
| By: | Shibao Guo (University of Calgary); Don J. DeVoretz (RIIM, Simon Fraser University and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports findings from a Vancouver study which examines the settlement and adaptation experience of Chinese immigrants in Vancouver. The study reveals that noneconomic reasons, such as the environment, education and citizenship, constituted the primary motivations for Chinese immigrants to move to Canada. Employment and language facilities were the most frequently cited barriers inhibiting their integration into the Vancouver social and economic spheres. Their poor economic performances coupled with the devaluation of both their acquired Chinese education qualifications and labour market experience have hindered integration and increased dissatisfaction with their lives in Canada. Given the logic of our posited triangular migration model we argue that this dissatisfaction will encourage Chinese emigration from Vancouver. |
| Keywords: | Chinese immigrants, emigration, integration, triangle theory |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J60 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2340&r=tra |
| By: | Campos, Nauro F; Horváth, Roman |
| Abstract: | We construct objective measures of privatization, internal and external liberalization reform efforts, across countries over time, and investigate their determinants, reversals and macroeconomic impacts. We find that GDP growth determines external liberalization and privatization, concentration of political power drives internal liberalization, and democracy underpins all three. We find that FDI inflows reduce the probability of privatization reversals, labour strikes increase that of internal liberalization reversals, and OECD growth increase that of external liberalization reversals. We replicate previous studies and find that the macroeconomic effects of reform (when measured objectively) tend to be larger and more precisely estimated. |
| Keywords: | political economy; privatization; reform; transition |
| JEL: | D72 E23 H26 O17 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5673&r=tra |
| By: | Ian Babetskii |
| Abstract: | A fixed exchange rate regime eliminates one degree of freedom in absorbing macroeconomic shocks. Therefore, there is a call for higher labor market flexibility in countries which are members of the monetary union or those which intend to join the monetary union. Focusing on the cross-country analysis of labor markets in the enlarged European Union, this paper aims to assess empirically the role of aggregate wages as a correction mechanism for dealing with economic disturbances. A comparable quarterly data-set is constructed covering 1995–2004 for four central European states (CE-4), four new EU members already participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism-II (ERM-II participants), and three peripheral members of the euro area (EMU- 3). We apply classical time series/panel, Bayesian, and cointegration techniques to determine the extent to which aggregate wages can accommodate shocks in the economy. The macroeconomic data does not seem to support the argument that real wages are flexible in the CE-4, the ERM-II participants, and the EMU-3. |
| Keywords: | . ERM-II, euro adoption, labor market, wage flexibility. |
| JEL: | E24 E52 C22 C33 P20 |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/1&r=tra |
| By: | Irina Peaucelle |
| Abstract: | Ce texte fait le point sur l'évolution du secteur hospitalier en Allemagne depuis 1990, selon trois cibles d'analyse. D'abord, sont examinés les raisons des réformes. Pour le faire, l'hôpital est placé dans l'offre des soins et dans la structuration des espaces industriels régionaux, appelés «professionnels» ou «l économie basée sur la connaissance». Puis, l'applicabilité de la théorie économique de santé à la politique médicale est analysée pour évoquer la succession des réformes sur le territoire de l'ex-RDA, les réformes de la convergence, celles qui remédient à des détériorations démographiques et celles qui sont provoquées par l'évolution de la situation économique générale dans la RFA. ### [english abstract: The paper reports on the evolution of the hospital industry in Germany according to three targets of analysis: first, I examine the reasons of the reforms; for that, I position the hospital in the offer of care and in the structuring the regional industrial spaces of Germany, called "professional" or "based on the knowledge" economy. Then I find out the applicability of the health economy improvements into the medical policy: I evoke the succession of the reforms in Germany and in particular on the territory of ex-GDR i.e. the reforms of convergence, those which remedy current demographic deteriorations, and those which are impelled by the evolution of economic situation.] ### |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2006-31&r=tra |