nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2006‒10‒21
nine papers chosen by
Tono Sanchez
Universitat de Valencia

  1. Interregional Population Migration in Russia: Using an Origin-to-Destination Matrix By Kazuhiro Kumo
  2. Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements By Jokipii , Terhi; Lucey, Brian
  3. Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs By Bask , Mikael; Fidrmuc , Jarko
  4. Testing the Theory of Trade Policy: Evidence from the Abrupt End of the Multifibre Arrangement By James Harrigan; Geoffrey Barrows
  5. Impact redistributif des aides au logement en Russie : une analyse de " propensity score matching " By Matthieu Clément
  6. Reinvesting in Children? Policies for the very young in South Eastern Europe and the CIS By Kitty Stewart; Carmen Huerta; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre
  7. Redefining Property Rights with Specific Reference to Social Ownership in Successor States of Former Yugoslavia: Did it Matter for Economic Efficiency? By Mulaj, Isa
  8. Child Consumption Poverty in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States By Gerry Redmond; Leonardo Menchini; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre
  9. La Chine et le Japon : concurrents pour un "hégémon régional" ? Premiers jalons pour une approche en EPI de l'Asie Orientale By Catherine Figuière; Laëtitia Guilhot

  1. By: Kazuhiro Kumo
    Abstract: This study examines regional economic conditions and their effects on interregional population redistribution patterns in Russia. After reviewing striking changes in population flows before and after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, an application of the gravity model on population migration in Russia in 2003 is presented using a newly obtained interregional in- and out-migration flow matrix supplied by Rosstat (formerly Goskomstat). Gross migration patterns in since the year 2000, when large transformational population flows ceased, have not been investigated so far in the existing literature. The analysis conducted focuses on geographical factors, which have been basically omitted in existing literature on migration patterns in transformational Russia, and the attractiveness of Moscow regions and resource-mining areas is clearly presented.
    JEL: P36 R12 R23
    Date: 2006–07
  2. By: Jokipii , Terhi (Bank of Finland and Trinity College Dublin); Lucey, Brian (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements be-tween the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of conta-gion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces dif-ferent results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we ad-dress the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter insta-bility, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.
    Keywords: contagion; interdependence; macroeconomic news; banking sector; stock returns
    JEL: F30 F40 G15
    Date: 2006–07–03
  3. By: Bask , Mikael (Bank of Finland Research); Fidrmuc , Jarko (Department of Economics, University of Munich, CESifo and Comenius University in Bratislava)
    Abstract: We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates. Finally, we estimate the impact of the monetary fundamentals for a panel of Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the second half of the 1990s as well as the complete model of exchange rate determination for daily data over the more recent free-floating period.
    Keywords: foreign exchange market; fundamental analysis; panel cointegration; technical analysis
    JEL: C23 F31 F36
    Date: 2006–06–12
  4. By: James Harrigan; Geoffrey Barrows
    Abstract: Quota restrictions on United States imports of apparel and textiles under the multifibre arrangement (MFA) ended abruptly in January 2005. This change in policy was large, predetermined, and fully anticipated, making it an ideal natural experiment for testing the theory of trade policy. We focus on simple and robust theory predictions about the effects of binding quotas, and also compute nonparametric estimates of the cost of the MFA. We find that prices of quota constrained categories from China fell by 38% in 2005, while prices in unconstrained categories from China and from other countries changed little. We also find substantial quality downgrading in imports from China in previously constrained categories, as predicted by theory. The annual cost of the MFA to U.S. consumers was about $100 per household.
    JEL: F1 F13 F14
    Date: 2006–10
  5. By: Matthieu Clément (CED / IFReDE-GRES, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)
    Abstract: L’objectif de cet article est de questionner la capacité des aides au logement en Russie à venir en aide aux familles vulnérables face au renchérissement des coûts du logement. Afin de mener cette étude d’impact, nous recourons à une analyse de ‘propensity score matching’, à partir des données Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey de 2003. L’idée est de construire un groupe de comparaison captant la situation des ménages bénéficiaires avant l’allocation des aides, sur la base des caractéristiques observables des ménages non bénéficiaires. Finalement, la comparaison entre les distributions pré-intervention et post-intervention indique que l’aide publique au logement exerce un impact très limité sur le revenu des ménages et est incapable de réduire la pauvreté, en raison notamment d’un ciblage défaillant. The aim of this article is to discuss about the capacity of Russian housing benefits to help vulnerable families who face an increase of their housing costs. In order to undertake this incidence analysis, we use 'propensity score matching' techniques and micro-data from the Russia Longitudinal Survey Monitoring of 2003. The idea is to build a comparison group which describes the situation of beneficiaries households before they receive housing benefits, on the basis of observable characteristics of non-beneficiaries households. Finally, the comparison between the pre-intervention distribution and the post-intervention distribution indicate that public housing benefits have a very limited impact on households income and are unable to reduce poverty, because of a failing targeting. (Full text in french)
    JEL: I32 I38 H53 P20
    Date: 2006–11
  6. By: Kitty Stewart; Carmen Huerta; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre
    Abstract: Economic collapse in the former Communist bloc led to soaring levels of child poverty in the 1990s. The effects of rising unemployment, underemployment and wage arrears were exacerbated by the erosion of state support for families with children as governments responded to a collapse in revenue. Since 1998, even the poorer countries of the bloc - those in South Eastern Europe and the CIS - have seen a return to economic growth. But have the benefits of growth been felt by children? Are child support policies being restored or restructured as economic conditions improve, and to what effect? This paper examines three aspects of government support for the youngest children – maternity leave policy, child and family allowances and pre-school/nursery provision. The paper calls for governments and donors to pay greater attention to the needs of very young children. It calls for a substantial increase in public spending on each of these policy areas, and it further recommends that governments (a) introduce proxy means tests to improve the targeting of family allowances; (b) make maternity benefit available on a social assistance as well as a social insurance basis; and (c) make a commitment to ensuring that all 3-5 year olds have free access to some early years education each week, albeit on a part-time basis.
    Keywords: Child Poverty; Family Income;; Baltic States; Russia;
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2006
  7. By: Mulaj, Isa
    Abstract: High economic growth rates after World War II characterized both socialism and capitalism. There have been impressive results in the former socialist block, Western Europe, USA, and Japan. Apart from these models based on private (capitalist) and state (socialist) ownership, the fastest economic growth in the world for some time was recorded in former Yugoslavia under social ownership with no specific owner having full ownership rights. The issue of property rights despite being subject to comparative analysis, did not matter much. After social ownership was privatized, the effects were not only as they were expected to be, but the countries like those that emerged from former Yugoslavia have yet to cope and strive for greater efficiency than before. This paper looks at the redefinition or privatization of social ownership in successor states of former Yugoslavia, and identifies the causes of smaller effects than expected of this redefinition.
    Keywords: property rights; social ownership; privatization; former Yugoslavia
    JEL: P26
    Date: 2006–05–06
  8. By: Gerry Redmond; Leonardo Menchini; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre
    Abstract: This paper examines poverty in recent years among children in the countries of South Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The indicator used to measure poverty is found to be robust to sensitivity testing, and to correlate well with non-income indicators of well-being among children. The absolute poverty rate among children is highest where national income is lowest, and where the density of children in the population is highest. The paper analyses two dimensions of child poverty – according to household composition, and according to its urban, rural and regional dimensions. The most important findings from a policy point of view are the strong rural character of child poverty, and the relationship between child population density (at the level of the country, the sub-national region, and the household) and child poverty: where child population shares are higher, child poverty rates are also higher. This relationship, moreover, may have strengthened over time. Child population density needs to be seen more as a trigger to redistribution.
    Keywords: Child Poverty; Development Indicators; Monitoring;; Baltic States; Eastern Europe;
    JEL: I32
    Date: 2006
  9. By: Catherine Figuière (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]); Laëtitia Guilhot (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: L'objet de cette communication est d'analyser l'évolution du rôle du Japon dans le processus de régionalisation asiatique parallèlement à l'émergence de la Chine comme "l'économie incontournable" de la zone. Alors que le Japon focalisait l'attention des économistes tout au long des années 80 jusqu'au milieu des années 90, c'est aujourd'hui la Chine qui suscite le plus grand nombre de publications. Pour autant peut-on comparer le Japon d'hier à la Chine d'aujourd'hui, en particulier dans leur rôle respectif dans la région ? Dans un premier temps, il convient de préciser le périmètre du processus économique en cours. En effet, le périmètre de la seule institution existante, l'ASEAN, n'englobant ni la Chine ni le Japon, ne peut par conséquent être considéré comme la zone pertinente. Dans un second temps, les concepts proposés par l'approche en Economie Politique Internationale dans le domaine des relations inter-étatiques seront déclinés à l'échelon régional. Hégémon, économie motrice et effets d'entraînement sont des outils qui permettent de montrer que ni la Chine ni le Japon ne peuvent prétendre jouer seul le rôle du leader régional. Dans un troisième temps, l'examen rapide de la complémentarité entre les deux économies permettra d'esquisser les modalités d'une éventuelle véritable construction régionale dans cette zone du monde.
    Keywords: régionalisation ; développement économique ; économie internationale ; relations internationales ; relations commerciales ; économie politique ; économie politique internationale ; hégémonie ; Chine ; ASEAN ; Japon
    Date: 2006–10–09

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