nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2006‒09‒30
thirteen papers chosen by
Tono Sanchez
Universitat de Valencia

  1. Poverty Is No Crime: Measuring Poverty in Russian Regions By Irina Denisova; Marina Kartseva
  2. Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade By Alexei Goriaev; Alexei Zabotkin
  3. Growth with Equity in East Asia? By Jomo K.S.
  4. Is Locking Domestic Funds into the Local Market Beneficial? Evidence from the Polish Pension Reforms By Anna Zalewska
  5. The Corporate Governance Role of the Media: Evidence from Russia By Alexander Dyck; Natalya Volchkova; Luigi Zingales
  6. Réformes foncières et émergence du localisme : l'incontrôlable urbanisation des terres arables en Chine By Julien Allaire
  7. Enlargement and the EU Periphery: The Impact of Changing Market Potential By Marius Brülhart; Matthieu Crozet; Pamina Koenig
  8. China’s Changing Economic Structures and Its Implications for Regional Patterns of Trade Production and Integration By Tan Kim Song; Khor Hoe Ee
  9. Les enjeux de la la dépendance pétrolière de la Chine By Sadek Boussena; Catherine Locatelli
  10. Les enjeux de la réorganisation du secteur pétrolier russe : vers un nouveau modèle privé-public ? By Catherine Locatelli
  11. Cuban Exceptionalism Revisited By Bert Hoffmann; Laurence Whitehead
  12. Zones de hautes technologies et politique de développement en Chine : éléments d'analyse By Olivier Boissin; Yong He
  13. La Chine, un hégémon régional en Asie Orientale ? Une approche d'Economie Politique Internationale By Laëtitia Guilhot

  1. By: Irina Denisova (CEFIR/New Economic School); Marina Kartseva
    Abstract: Fighting poverty is on the top of Russia’s political agenda. The scope of poverty as well as the poverty profile is still an open question, however. The question is even more open with respect to the Russian regions. One could expect that being a heterogeneous country, Russia’s regional poverty profiles are also heterogeneous. We measure poverty in Russia’s regions using absolute poverty notion, official regional subsistence levels and consumption-based approach. We also draw regional poverty profiles by identifying the factors which influence poverty rates and poverty gaps. The exercise is based on NOBUS database – a nationally and regionally (for 46 regions) representative survey of 45000 households done in April-May 2003. We find that poverty rates vary significantly – up to threefold difference - across regions. The list of factors that influence poverty rate and poverty gap in regions are similar, with variation in relative weights of the factors. The former conforms with other studies on poverty in Russia that conclude that there are no major differences in determinants of transitory or persistent poverty. Some interesting insights in regional-specific patterns of poverty are found.
    Keywords: poverty, Russian regions, poverty rate, poverty profile, NOBUS
    Date: 2005–09
  2. By: Alexei Goriaev (CEFIR/New Economic School); Alexei Zabotkin
    Abstract: The modern history of the Russian stock market has mirrored ups and downs of the country’s transition as well as swings in investor perceptions. In this paper, we describe the evolution of the Russian stock market over its first decade, with particular attention to the risk factors driving stock returns. First, we analyze the development of the institutional infrastructure and dynamics of the market’s size and liquidity measured by the number of listed and traded stocks, depositary receipts and IPOs as well as trading volume in the local stock exchanges and abroad. Then, we examine major political and economic events, which influenced the investor perceptions of the country risk and were reflected in stock prices. Finally, we carry out quantitative analysis of risk factors explaining considerable time and cross-sectional variation in Russian stock returns. We document a significant role of corporate governance, political risk, and macroeconomic risk factors, such as global equity markets performance, oil prices, and exchange rates, whose relative importance varied a lot over time.
    Keywords: financial institutions, risk factors, Russian stock market
    Date: 2006–08
  3. By: Jomo K.S.
    Abstract: Rapid growth and structural change have reduced poverty in East Asian economies. Income inequality has been low in Korea and Taiwan, but has risen in recent years with economic liberalization. In the Southeast Asian economies of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, poverty has declined, while income inequality trends have varied, rising most clearly in Thailand. With its strengthened (private) property rights, market liberalization and sustained rapid growth, China has also experienced increased inequality despite considerable poverty reduction. Hence, the common claim of egalitarian growth in East Asia may have been exaggerated, especially since the 1990s.
    Keywords: East Asia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, inequality, poverty
    JEL: D31 D63 F02
    Date: 2006–09
  4. By: Anna Zalewska
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with the effect of enforced home bias on the development of emerging stock markets. It provides a detailed study of the impact on the Warsaw Stock Exchange of the Polish pension fund reforms and the associated restrictions on international investment. The time path of market development for the Warsaw Stock Exchange is compared with a benchmark sample consisting of the other seven post-communist countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that benefits arising from the pension funds’ increased investment in the home market are short-lived. In the long run, the relative performance of the Polish market returned to pre-1999 levels or worse, suggesting that enforced home bias on emerging markets may be detrimental, rather than beneficial, to the long-run development of the market.
    Keywords: pension reforms, home bias, stock market development, transition countries
    JEL: G23 G28 G11
    Date: 2006–07
  5. By: Alexander Dyck; Natalya Volchkova; Luigi Zingales
    Abstract: We study the effect of media coverage on corporate governance by focusing on Russia in the period 1999-2002. This setting offers us three ideal conditions for such a study: plenty of corporate governance violations, no alternative mechanisms to address them, and the presence of an investment fund (the Hermitage) that actively lobbies the international press to shame companies perpetrating those violations. We find that Hermitage’s lobbying is effective in increasing the coverage of corporate governance violations in the Anglo-American press. We also find that coverage in the Anglo-American press increases the probability that a corporate governance violation is reversed. This effect is present even when we instrument coverage with an exogenous determinant, i.e. the Hermitage’s portfolio composition at the beginning of the period. The Hermitage’s strategy seems to work in part by impacting Russian companies’ reputation abroad and in part by forcing regulators into action.
    JEL: G3 O16
    Date: 2006–09
  6. By: Julien Allaire (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: Le développement chinois résulte de la transition d'une économie maoïste à une économie socialiste de marché amorcée il y a plus de 25 ans. La soutenabilité du développement chinois dépend de la consommation de ressources naturelles. Nous étudions dans cet article la question de l'urbanisation du territoire en revenant sur les réformes concernant l'usage du sol en milieu urbain. Les villes chinoises se sont rapidement développées depuis la mise en place d'un système foncier dual confrontant allocation de terrain et marché foncier. La valorisation de la terre dans un contexte de décentralisation et de privatisation a donné beaucoup de pouvoirs aux gouvernements locaux. La somme des politiques locales a engendré une rapide urbanisation des terres arables. Le gouvernement central tente de contenir ce phénomène menaçant la sécurité alimentaire du pays.
    Keywords: Marché foncier ; transition ; terres arables ; Chine
    Date: 2006–09–18
  7. By: Marius Brülhart (HEC - LAUSANNE - École des HEC, Université de Lausanne Département d'économétrie et économie politique - [Université de Lausanne]); Matthieu Crozet (TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - [CNRS : UMR8059] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Pamina Koenig (TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - [CNRS : UMR8059] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I], CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - [INSEE] - [ École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique])
    Abstract: We study the impact of changing relative market access in an enlarged EU on the economies of incumbent Objective 1 regions. First, we track the impact of external opening on internal spatial configurations in a three-region economic geography model. External opening gives rise to potentially offsetting economic forces, but for most parameter configurations it is found to raise the locational attractiveness of the region that is close to the external market. Then, we explore the relation between market access and economic activity empirically, using data for European regions, and we simulate the impact of EU enlargement on Objective 1 regions. Our predicted market-access induced gains in regional GDP and manufacturing employment are up to seven times larger in regions proximate to the new accession countries than in “interior” EU regions. We also find that a future Balkans enlargement could be particularly effective in reducing economic inequalities among the EU periphery, due to the positive impact on relative market access of Greek regions.
    Keywords: New economic geography, Market potential, EU enlargement, Objective 1 regions
    Date: 2006–09–19
  8. By: Tan Kim Song (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University); Khor Hoe Ee (Monetary Authority of Singapore)
    Abstract: There is tremendous momentum for economic and financial integration in East Asia today. Partly inspired by the formation of the European Union and partly as a response to the 1997/98 Asia financial crisis, many East Asian countries are showing greater commitment to regional economic cooperation. A number of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have either been concluded or are being negotiated.1 At a less formal level, the ASEAN+3 grouping has brought the whole region together in regular consultations over trade, investment, as well as monetary and exchange rate policy matters.
    Date: 2005–11
  9. By: Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]); Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: La croissance des importations pétrolières chinoises met au 1er plan la question de sa dépendance énergétique par les autorités chinoises. Celle-ci passe par une présence active de la Chine sur la scène énergétique internationale (diversification des sources, des approvisionnements, rôle des compagnies pétrlières chinoises, etc.).
    Keywords: Dépendance énergétique ; importations ; pétrole ; Chine
    Date: 2006–09–19
  10. By: Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: Cet article porte sur l'analyse de la réorganisation du secteur pétrolier en Russie. Il montre que l'on s'oriente vers une hybridation des modes de gouvernance publics et privés dans l'industrie. Celle-ci peut s'analyser comme une tentative de sortie du blocage institutionnel dans lequel la privatisation a enfermé le secteur pétrolier.
    Keywords: restructuration ; industrie pétrolière ; Russie
    Date: 2006–09–20
  11. By: Bert Hoffmann (GIGA Institute for Ibero-American Studies); Laurence Whitehead (Nuffield College, Oxford University)
    Abstract: The end of Cuban exceptionalism has been much announced since 1989, but a decade and a half later state socialism on the island is still enduring. Transition studies have been criti-cized for focusing on success stories. Exploring the deviant case of Cuba’s “non-transition” from a comparative social science perspective can shed light on the peculiarities of this case and, more importantly, test the general assumptions underlying post-1989 expecta-tions of regime change in Cuba. Theories of path dependence and cumulative causation are particularly helpful when attempting to link Cuban current political exceptionalism with a more long-term historic perspective. Moreover, they suggest that interpretations of Cuba as simply a “belated” case of “third wave” democratization may prove erroneous, even when the health of Fidel Castro finally falters.
    Keywords: Cuba, comparative politics, exceptionalism, socialism, transition
    Date: 2006–09
  12. By: Olivier Boissin (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]); Yong He (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: En Chine le développement des activités à contenu technologique passe depuis plus de dix ans prioritairement par deux leviers. Premièrement, une politique publique de recherche impulsée par l'Etat Central et sous contrôle des ministères des sciences et de la technologie et du ministère de l'industrie et du commerce ; en second lieu par une politique d'attractivité des investissements directs étrangers sur des activités à haut contenu technologique. Dans le cadre de cette présentation, nous explorons ce deuxième axe : l'agglomération d'IDE (Investissement Direct Etranger) au sein de zones économiques spéciales à haut contenu technologique. Cette politique d'attractivité territoriale se généralise à partir de la loi de développement des ZDET (Zone de Développement Economique et Technologique) à la fin des années 1980 et représente aujourd'hui le premier pôle de développement de recherches appliquées à orientation concurrentielle dans une optique de "Bottom up".
    Keywords: technologie de pointe ; développement technologique ; politique technologique ; politique de développement ; investissment direct ; investissement étranger ; Chine
    Date: 2006–09–25
  13. By: Laëtitia Guilhot (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: L'objet de cette contribution est double. Elle vise tout d'abord à présenter l'évolution du rôle de la Chine dans le processus de régionalisation asiatique, notamment en analysant le poids et l'impact de cette insertion dans le volume des échanges et des flux d'IDE intra-régionaux. L'essor de la Chine dans cette région pose ensuite la question de l'hégémon régional. Le Japon, autre économie incontournable de la zone, ne peut être écarté de cette étude. Ces deux pays peuvent tous deux prétendre au statut d'hégémon régional. Mais après une évaluation de leurs capacités, ni la Chine, ni le Japon ne possèdent toutes les caractéristiques nécessaires à ce rôle. Seuls les attributs de la Chine conjugués à ceux du Japon permettraient de donner naissance à un tandem moteur "théorique" pertinent, capable d'organiser la zone.
    Keywords: régionalisation ; échange commercial ; investissement direct ; investissement étranger ; économie politique internationale ; hégémonie ; chine ; Asie ; Japon
    Date: 2006–09–25

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