nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2006‒08‒05
twenty-two papers chosen by
Tono Sanchez
Universitat de Valencia

  1. A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China By Marvin Goodfriend; Eswar Prasad
  2. Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable By Balázs Égert; Ronald MacDonald
  3. Exchange rate risk and economic reform: the case of endogenous institutional change in China By Veit, Wolfgang
  4. China's Embrace of Globalization By Lee Bransetter; Nicholas Lardy
  5. Progress in China's Banking Sector Reform: Has Bank Behavior Changed? By Richard Podpiera
  6. The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating? By Nienke Oomes; Oksana Dynnikova
  7. Health Service Delivery in China: A Literature Review By Eggleston, Karen; Ling, Li; Qingyue, Meng; Lindelow, Magnus; Wagstaff, Adam
  8. Economic Theory, Russia and the Fading "Washington Consensus" By M. FLORIO
  9. Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states – consequences for the enlargement of the euro area By Herrmann, Sabine; Jochem, Axel
  10. Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment By Herrmann, Sabine; Jochem, Axel
  11. An Evaluation of the Need and Cost of Selected Trade Facilitation Measures in China: Implications for the WTO Negotiations on Trade Facilitation By Wenjing Chen, Li Wei
  12. Policies to Promote Innovation in the Czech Republic By Alessandro Goglio
  13. Vertical intra-industry trade between EU and Accession Countries By Hubert Gabrisch
  14. Institutional Constraints for the Success of Agricultural Biotechnology in Developing Countries: The Case of Bt-Cotton in Shandong Province, China By Pemsl, D.; Waibel, H.; Gutierrez, A.P.
  15. Improving Public-spending Efficiency in Czech Regions and Municipalities By Philip Hemmings
  16. Ukraine: The Cost of Weak Institutions By Andrew Tiffin
  17. How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? : Evidence from a structural factor model By Eickmeier, Sandra; Breitung, Jörg
  18. Getting Education Right for Long-term Growth in the Czech Republic By Alessandro Goglio
  19. Mutation urbaine chinoise et dépendance énergétique By Julien Allaire
  20. Income Mis-Measurement and the Estimation of Poverty Rates. An Analysis of Income Poverty in Albania By Francesca Francavilla; Stephen Pudney
  21. Assessing the 2005 Czech Proposals for Pension Reform By Philip Hemmings; Edward Whitehouse
  22. How to prioritise policies for poverty reduction: Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam By Klump, Rainer; Prüfer, Patricia

  1. By: Marvin Goodfriend; Eswar Prasad
    Abstract: As China's economy becomes more market based and continues its rapid integration into the global economy, having an independent and effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectives will become increasingly important. Employing modern principles of monetary policy in light of the current state of China's financial institutions, we motivate and present a package of proposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime. Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflation objective, operational independence for the People's Bank of China (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government, and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinese banking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). We argue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflation objective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tie down inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policy to make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoring of money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to play a useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a money target would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor.
    Keywords: Monetary policy , China , Flexible exchange rates , Inflation targeting , Financial sector , Bank reforms , Central bank policy , Central bank role , Money supply , Financial systems , Transition economies ,
    Date: 2006–05–10
  2. By: Balázs Égert; Ronald MacDonald
    Abstract: This paper surveys recent advances in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM). In particular, while laying out the functioning of the separate channels in the MTM, special attention is paid to exploring possible interrelations between different channels through which they may amplify or attenuate each others’ impact on prices and the real economy. We take stock of the empirical findings especially as they relate to countries in Central and Eastern Europe, and compare them to results reported for industrialised countries, especially for the euro area. We highlight potential pitfalls in the literature and assess the relative importance and potential development of the different channels.
    Keywords: monetary transmission, transition, Central and Eastern Europe, credit channel, interest rate channel, interest-rate pass-through, exchange rate channel, exchange rate pass-through, asset price channel
    JEL: E31 E51 E58 F31 O11 P20
    Date: 2006
  3. By: Veit, Wolfgang
    Abstract: Over the past 15 years the mutual importance of institutional economics and development economics have grown strongly. This paper attempts to apply institutional analysis to issues of economic development by analysing China’s reform process after her accession to the WTO on the background of the hypothesis of vertically dependent institutions. It will be shown that institutions on a lower level (e.g. a fixed exchange rate regime) are dominated by higher level institutions like (e.g. laws governing firms, financial and labour markets). The latter are dominated by institutions on a higher level, for example by regulations governing the economic and political system. Consequently, economic policy options like a change in the exchange rate regime will depend on adjustments in areas ranging from constitutional to company law. In the second chapter, the concept of hierarchical institutions is introduced. In the third chapter, the general results of China’s recent trade liberalisation under WTO rules and the issue of a fixed exchange rate to the US Dollar are recounted. In the fourth chapter, reforms necessitated by China’s accession to the WTO, and reflected by the present exchange rate regime, are identified. This is followed by the analysis of institutions that are conducive to successful implementation of those reforms in China.
    Date: 2005
  4. By: Lee Bransetter; Nicholas Lardy
    Abstract: As China has become an increasingly important part of the global trading system over the past two decades, interest in the country and its international economic policies has increased among international economists who are not China specialists. This paper represents an attempt to provide the international economics community with a succinct summary of the major steps in the evolution of Chinese policy toward international trade and foreign direct investment and their consequences since the late 1970s. In doing so, we draw upon and update a number of more comprehensive book-length treatments of the subject. It is our hope that this paper will prove to be a useful resource for the growing numbers of international economists who are exploring China-related issues, either in the classroom or in their own research.
    JEL: O53 O19 F43 F14
    Date: 2006–07
  5. By: Richard Podpiera
    Abstract: Substantial effort has been devoted to reforming China's banking system in recent years. The authorities recapitalized three large state-owned banks, introduced new governance structures, and brought in foreign strategic investors. However, it remains unclear the extent to which currently reported data reflect the true credit risk in loan portfolios and whether lending decisions have started to be taken on a commercial basis. We examine lending growth, credit pricing, and regional patterns in lending from 1997 through 2004 to look for evidence of changing behavior of the large state-owned commercial banks (SCBs). We find that the SCBs have slowed down credit expansion, but that the pricing of credit risk remains undifferentiated and banks do not appear to take enterprise profitability into account when making lending decisions. Controlling for several factors, we find that large SCBs have continued to lose market share to other financial institutions in provinces with more profitable enterprises. The full impact of the most recent reforms will become clear only in several years, however, and these issues should be revisited in future research.
    Keywords: Banking systems , China , Credit risk , Bank supervision , Bank regulations ,
    Date: 2006–03–29
  6. By: Nienke Oomes; Oksana Dynnikova
    Abstract: This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the "natural rates" of capacity and labor utilization above which inflation begins to accelerate; (2) estimating a production function with utilization-adjusted capital and labor inputs; and (3) defining potential output as the level of output obtained when both capital and labor are at their estimated natural rates. The results suggest that the output gap in Russia was negative between 1999 and 2003, but may have recently become positive, thus contributing to inflationary pressures.
    Keywords: Inflation , Russian Federation , Labor mobility , Labor markets ,
    Date: 2006–03–23
  7. By: Eggleston, Karen; Ling, Li; Qingyue, Meng; Lindelow, Magnus; Wagstaff, Adam
    Abstract: The authors report the results of a review of the Chinese-language and English-language literatures on service delivery in China, asking how well China ' s health care providers perform, what determines their performance, and how the government can improve it. They find current performance leaves room for improvement in terms of quality, responsiveness to patients, efficiency, cost escalation, and equity. The literature suggests that these problems will not be solved by simply shifting ownership to the private sector, or by simply encouraging providers-public and private-to compete with one another for individual patients. In contrast, substantial improvements could be (and in some places have already been) made by changing the way providers are paid-shifting away from fee-for-service and the distorted price schedule toward prospective payments. Active purchasing by insurers could further improve outcomes.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Health Law,Health Economics & Finance,Health Systems Development & Reform,Population Policies
    Date: 2006–08–01
  8. By: M. FLORIO
  9. By: Herrmann, Sabine; Jochem, Axel
    Abstract: The current accounts of most EU member states in central and eastern Europe have been showing growing deficits in recent years. According to panel estimates the deficits can be attributed primarily to factors characteristic for the stage of development, ie the relative income level and high capital building. The positive impact of a closing income gap, however, is largely compensated by real appreciation. The net effect of government budget deficits is rather small, since they are mostly financed by private saving. Further integration of the financial sector is likely to improve the current accounts. Although the current account positions do not require fundamental policy reversals, there are clear risks of exchange rate adjustments that should be reduced before entering the euro area.
    Keywords: current account, new EU member countries, catching-up process
    JEL: F15 F32
    Date: 2005
  10. By: Herrmann, Sabine; Jochem, Axel
    Abstract: Given the large trade and current account deficits in some of the new EU member states the development of their external economic situation plays a role in assessing their aptitude to enter the European Monetary Union. The empirical analysis with aggregated data indicates that in the eight central and east European EU member states FDI and trade are complementary. This result is confirmed by an FDI enhanced gravity model which makes use of sectoral data provided by the Bundesbank’s micro database direct investment (MIDI). The net effect of FDI on the trade balance is ambiguous, but FDI in high-tech industries clearly stimulates exports more than imports. Technological spill-over and the conglomeration of human capital seem to be important factors for the export performance. Against this background the prospects for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic look more favourable compared to the Baltic states.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, trade balance, gravity model
    JEL: F14 F15 F21
    Date: 2005
  11. By: Wenjing Chen, Li Wei (Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation)
    Abstract: In 2004, China became the third largest trading economy in the world. Although official overall average import tariff rate was reduced to 9.9% as of January 2005, actual tariff rates are likely much lower. Although further tariff reductions may lead to renewed and expanded global trade growth, trade facilitation will play an increasingly important role in promoting global trade. Costs associated with implementation of trade facilitation measures may be classified into four categories: new regulations, institutional changes, training, and equipment and infrastructure. The study was generally not able to determine costs of specific trade facilitation measures in China. However, Customs and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) are the two government departments that are most deeply involved in trade facilitation, and a review of their expenditures in this field provides useful information on equipment/infrastructure costs that may be associated with implementing modern trade facilitation systems.
    Keywords: GATT, WTO, Trade Liberalization
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2006–03
  12. By: Alessandro Goglio
    Abstract: The Czech government considers innovation policy a key component of the effort to improve the business environment. This paper underscores the importance for the Czech Republic of expanding R&D activities that have a potential for commercial innovation. It also points to the relevance of good general business conditions in encouraging research and ensuring that the economy benefits from the international diffusion of innovation. Concerning targeted policies, the need for structural reforms to improve the research and innovation environment is described. The paper looks at options to create a coherent governance framework for public R&D and to make the allocation of research funds efficient. Assessment of changes in R&D tax allowances and the strategy for giving direct support to innovative SMEs is also made. Finally, the paper considers what reforms are needed to help the creation of stronger science-industry links and the take-off of the venture capital and "business angels" market. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 OECD Economic Survey of the Czech Republic ( <P>Politiques visant à encourager l?innovation en République tchèque <BR>Le gouvernement tchèque considère que la politique d'innovation est un élément clé des efforts menés pour améliorer les conditions de fonctionnement des entreprises. Ce document souligne l'importance que la République tchèque accorde au développement des activités de R-D pouvant déboucher sur une innovation commerciale. Il souligne aussi la pertinence de bonnes conditions générales pour encourager la recherche et tirer parti des avantages économiques de la diffusion internationale de l'innovation. S'agissant des politiques ciblées, la nécessité de réformes structurelles pour améliorer les conditions de la recherche et de l'innovation est soulignée. Le document examine les options en vue de la création d'un cadre de gouvernance cohérent pour la R-D publique et de l'allocation efficiente des fonds destinés à la recherche. Sont évaluées également les modifications des aides fiscales à la R-D et la stratégie visant à apporter une aide directe aux PME novatrices. Enfin, le document passe en revue les réformes qui sont nécessaires pour favoriser la création de liens plus forts entre la science et l'industrie et encourager le développement de l'activité du marché du capital-risque et des investisseurs providentiels. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l'Étude économique de l'OCDE de la République tchèque 2006 (
    Keywords: OECD, transition economies, OCDE, économie en transition, Czech Republic, République tchèque, innovation processes and incentives, management of innovation and R&D, processus d'innovation, incitations à l'innovation
    JEL: O3
    Date: 2006–07–17
  13. By: Hubert Gabrisch
    Abstract: The paper analyses vertical intra-industry trade between EU and Accession countries, and concentrates on two country-specific determinants: Differences in personal income distribution and in technology. Both determinants have a strong link to national policies and to cross-border investment flows. In contrast to most other studies, income distribution is not seen as time-invariant variable, but as changing over time. What is new is also that differences in technology are tested in comparison with cost advantages from capital/labour ratios. The study applies panel estimation techniques with GLS. Results show country-pair fixed effects to be of high relevance for explaining vertical intraindustry trade. In addition, bilateral differences in personal income distribution and their changes are positive related to vertical intra-industry trade in this special regional integration framework; hence, distributional effects of policies matter. Also, technology differences turn out to be positively correlated with vertical intra-industry trade. However, the cost variable (here: relative GDP per capita) shows no clear picture, particularly not in combination with the technology variable.
    Keywords: Intra-industry trade, transition countries
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2006–07
  14. By: Pemsl, D.; Waibel, H.; Gutierrez, A.P.
    Abstract: The use of genetically engineered crop varieties has recently become one option to prevent pest damage in agriculture. The promoters of biotechnology stress the great potential for yield increase and pesticide reduction while the critics point out the potential risks for biodiversity and human health as well as institutional problems for implementation especially in developing countries. The objective of this paper is an in-depth economic analysis of Btcotton production in North East China under small-scale conditions and several years after technology introduction. Data were collected in 2002 (March - October) in Linqing County, a major cotton growing area of Shandong Province, China. Data collection comprised a seasonlong monitoring of Bt-cotton production with 150 farmers from five villages, and three complementary household interviews. In addition, plot-level biological testing was carried out to determine the actual Bt toxin concentration in the varieties that were used by the farmers. All farmers in the case study were growing insect resistant Bt-cotton varieties in 2002. Nevertheless, they sprayed high amounts of chemical pesticides that were almost entirely insecticides. A proportion of 40% of the pesticides applied belonged to the categories extremely or highly hazardous (WHO classes Ia and Ib). The paper reviews methodological issues inherent to impact assessment of crop biotechnology and identifies market and institutional failure as possible reasons for continued high pesticide use. The production function methodology with damage control function was applied and it was found that for both damage control inputs, i.e. Bt and insecticides the coefficients were not significantly different from zero. In contrast to studies that treat Bt varieties as dummy variable in economic models, in this research it was possible to specify Bt toxin concentration in cotton leaf samples as a continuous variable. The results of this study support the notion that introducing Biotechnology in developing countries without enabling institutions that assure proper use of the technology can considerably limit its benefits. Hence it is important to include institutional criteria in the evaluation of agricultural biotechnology especially in developing countries.
    Date: 2005
  15. By: Philip Hemmings
    Abstract: This paper looks at ways of ensuring Czech regions and municipalities are fully motivated to make efficiency improvements in public service provision and so help achieve countrywide fiscal sustainability. The very large number of small municipalities in the Czech Republic means that scale economies are difficult to exploit and the policy options for overcoming this problem are discussed. In the financing system there are issues of transparency and the balance between autonomy for the regions and municipalities and central-government power to direct resources. In terms of accountability, questions of oversight and transparency arise in the public-procurement system and benchmarking in cost and output in public services is not yet widely used. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 OECD Economic Survey of the Czech Republic ( <P>L'amélioration de l'efficience des dépenses publiques dans les régions et les communes en République tchèque <BR>Ce document porte sur les moyens de veiller à ce que les régions et communes tchèques soient pleinement encouragées à réaliser des gains d’efficience dans la prestation des services publics, et à contribuer ainsi à garantir la viabilité budgétaire de l’ensemble du pays. Le très grand nombre de petites communes que compte la République tchèque signifie que les possibilités d’économies d’échelle sont difficiles à exploiter, et les options envisageables pour résoudre ce problème sont examinées. Par ailleurs, le système de financement soulève des questions de transparence et d’équilibre entre l’autonomie des régions et des communes, d’une part, et les prérogatives de l’administration centrale en matière de répartition des ressources, d’autre part. En termes d’obligations redditionnelles, des questions de contrôle et de transparence se posent dans le domaine des marchés publics, et l’analyse comparative des coûts et des résultats reste peu utilisée dans les services publics. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l'Étude économique de l'OCDE de la République tchèque 2006 (
    Keywords: dépenses publiques, public expenditure, Czech Republic, République tchèque, regions, municipalities, régions, communes
    JEL: H50 H70
    Date: 2006–07–18
  16. By: Andrew Tiffin
    Abstract: Ukraine has the potential to be a very wealthy country. It has a well-educated workforce, some of the best agricultural land in the world, an enviable supply of hydrocarbons and minerals, and a relatively well-developed infrastructure. Despite these advantages, however, Ukraine's per capita income remains low. Using a cross-country stochastic-frontier framework, this paper argues that Ukraine's failure to tap its full potential is mainly a result of its market-unfriendly institutional base. With an inherited Soviet framework that is ill suited to the needs of a market economy, Ukraine has been slow to establish the institutions needed to use its resources efficiently. The paper provides a quantitative guide to the benefits, in terms of potential output, of further structural reform. Looking forward, the study finds that durable growth in Ukraine will depend primarily on the authorities' ability to implement their ambitious reform agenda, and thereby to help secure the basic foundations of a modern market economy.
    Date: 2006–07–12
  17. By: Eickmeier, Sandra; Breitung, Jörg
    Abstract: A high degree of cyclical synchronization between central and east European countries (CEECs) and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. This paper investigates comovements between CEECs and the euro area. We first establish stylized facts on economic linkages using dynamic correlation and cohesion measures. By means of a large-scale dynamic factor model, we then identify the main structural common euro-area shocks and investigate their transmission to the CEECs in comparison to the current EMU members. We finally carry out a counterfactual experiment which allows us to assess the costs and benefits of accession to EMU for individual CEECs in terms of economic volatilities and the implications of enlargement for synchronization. Overall, our results are mixed. Dynamic business cycle and inflation correlations between CEECs and the euro area are, on average, lower than between individual EMU members and the euro area, but they are higher than for some small peripheral EMU countries. This is confirmed by our other measure, variance shares of output and inflation explained by common euro-area factors. The proliferation of euro-area shocks to the CEECs does not differ significantly from the propagation to EMU countries in most cases. Based on our counterfactual experiment, we do not find significant stabilizing or destabilizing effects through a common monetary policy and fixed exchange rates. We also find that business cycle synchronization between CEECs and between most CEECs and the euro area will increase. There seems to be considerable heterogeneity across CEECs, implying that for some countries, accession to EMU would be more costly than for others. According to our analysis and based on our measures, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary and Estonia are more suitable EMU candidates than other countries.
    Keywords: Dynamic factor models, international business cycles, EMU e gement, counterfactual experiment
    JEL: C32 C50 E5 F02 F41 F42 F47
    Date: 2005
  18. By: Alessandro Goglio
    Abstract: The Czech education system is performing reasonably well. Secondary-school participation and completion rates have traditionally been high, and continue to be so. PISA results are above average, with Czech students performing among the best in the OECD in problem-solving abilities, particularly for mathematics and science. Though tertiary attainment is low in the population as a whole, the enrolment rate is increasing rapidly. At just a little below 5% of GDP, total education spending is low compared with other OECD countries.
    Date: 2006–07–17
  19. By: Julien Allaire (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II])
    Abstract: Depuis vingt-cinq ans, les villes chinoises se sont transformées avec le développement économique. Elles sont devenues plus peuplées et plus riches. Elles se sont aussi fortement étendues pour libérer de l'espace en centre-ville et offrir de nouveaux territoires aux populations migrantes et aux nouvelles activités économiques. Cette mutation des villes a entraîné une augmentation des distances de déplacement permise par le développement de modes de transport mécanisés. La bicyclette a assuré une transition dans les années 1980 vers la mise en place d'un système automobile. Celui-ci fut d'abord balbutiant dans les années 1990 avec la voiture collective. Dans les années 2000, les ménages les plus aisés des villes les plus riches ont commencé à se doter d'un véhicule suivant la politique industrielle des autorités. Les villes ont toutefois conservé une telle densité que la congestion est devenue chronique et la circulation automobile contribue de plus en plus à la pollution atmosphérique. La motorisation des ménages chinois qui offre des perspectives de croissance à tous les constructeurs, entraîne toutefois une consommation de pétrole grandissante pour les déplacements urbains. La construction des villes chinoises autour de l'automobile amènera à une dépendance énergétique plus ou moins forte selon les politiques envisagées. Cette dépendance du point de vue des technologies actuelles sera nécessairement pétrolière. Elle sera source de tensions internationales et d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Le débat engagé à la fin des années 1980 par Newman et Kenworthy concernant la relation entre densité urbaine et consommation d'énergie pour les transports urbains demeure d'actualité. Nous revenons dans cet article sur le terme de dépendance automobile et sur le débat alimenté par la communauté anglo-saxonne. L'argumentation des uns et des autres était principalement dédiée aux villes australiennes et américaines. Les villes européennes ont connu une histoire bien différente où l'automobile n'a pas supprimé la ville héritée. Elle ne l'a pas transformé en ouvrant de nouveaux territoires mais en laissant une place aux autres systèmes de transport. Nous reviendrons ici sur l'évolution historique de la ville et ses relations avec la conjecture de Zahavi qui permet de définir des limites temporelles et économiques à la ville. Pour terminer, nous présenterons les données statistiques de Newman et son équipe d'un point de vue historique. L'évolution de la motorisation et de l'automobilisation des villes décrites de 1960 à 1990 permet de présenter clairement ce que nous appelons les spécificités continentales. Nous ajoutons à cela les données dont nous disposons pour la Chine pour montrer l'orientation de l'automobilisation chinoise. Celle-ci se trouve confrontée à une troisième limite : la limite spatiale de l'expansion urbaine.
    Keywords: étalement urbain ; mobilité ; transports urbains ; énergie ; Chine
    Date: 2006–07–17
  20. By: Francesca Francavilla (University of Florence); Stephen Pudney (Institute for Social and Economic Research)
    Abstract: We investigate the reliability of estimated income poverty profiles for Albanian survey data. We find evidence that a significant number of households with low reported incomes have relatively high living standards and are consequently misclassified as poor. We extend the theory of contaminated distributions to incorporate direct measures of well-being as indicators of data contamination, and develop a new nonparametric approach for constructing bounds on conditional poverty rates. We find very large upward biases in measured income poverty under the assumption of independence between living standards and the misreporting propensity, but a wide range of uncertainty under more general conditions.
    Keywords: Albania, bounds, contaminated distributions, measurement error, poverty
    Date: 2006–07
  21. By: Philip Hemmings; Edward Whitehouse
    Abstract: The Czech Republic faces one of the largest demographic challenges in the OECD area and making sure the public pension system is able to cope with rapid population ageing is important for long-term fiscal stability and social welfare. This paper assesses five proposals for pension reform made in late 2005 with a view to helping progress towards a final decision on reform. The proposals cover a wide range of options: only parametric change of the current pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system, systems combining a PAYG pension with a second-pillar (defined-contribution), a flat-rate pension and a system of notional accounts. The analysis uses OECD simulation models to compare the proposals in terms of fiscal sustainability, safety nets, early retirement incentives, diversification into private provision, simplicity and the pensions-earnings link. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 OECD Economic Survey of the Czech Republic ( <P>Évaluation des propositions de la République tchèque de 2005 sur la réforme des retraites <BR>La République tchèque se trouvera confrontée à l'un des problèmes démographiques les plus aigus dans la zone de l'OCDE, et faire en sorte que le système public de retraite résiste à la forte augmentation des cohortes de personnes âgées est essentiel à long terme pour la stabilité budgétaire et la protection sociale. On examinera dans ce document cinq propositions de réforme des retraites formulées à la fin de 2005, le but étant de faciliter la prise de décision finale. Ces propositions couvrent un large éventail de formules : une modification uniquement paramétrique du système actuel de répartition, des solutions combinant la répartition et un deuxième pilier (à cotisations définies), une pension de retraite uniforme et un système de comptes virtuels. On s'appuiera sur les modèles de simulation de l'OCDE pour comparer ces propositions sous les aspects suivants : viabilité budgétaire, filet de sécurité, incitation à la retraite anticipée, diversification au profit d'une couverture privée, simplicité et lien entre pension de retraite et revenu d'activité. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l'Étude économique de l'OCDE de la République tchèque 2006 (
    Keywords: pensions, dépenses publiques, public expenditure, système de retraite, Czech Republic, République tchèque, early retirement, retraite anticipée
    JEL: D10 H55 J14 J18
    Date: 2006–07–17
  22. By: Klump, Rainer; Prüfer, Patricia
    Abstract: The UN Millennium Development Goals have recognized poverty reduction as the main goal of global development policy. A comprehensive framework to evaluate the effectiveness of single policy measures and policy packages with respect to poverty reduction is still lacking, though. Policy evaluation is exposed to manifold uncertainties given the dependency of the preferred outcomes on a chosen policy, available information, and policy makers' preferences. We show that Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is most valuable in this context as it addresses the parameter and model uncertainty inherent in development policies. Using data for the 61 Vietnamese provinces we are able to ascertain the most important determinants of poverty from a large number of potential explanatory variables.
    Keywords: Poverty determinants, Vietnam, model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)
    JEL: C11 C52 O18 O53 R11
    Date: 2005

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