nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2006‒06‒03
thirty-two papers chosen by
Tono Sanchez
Universitat de Valencia

  1. Comparative social capital: Networks of entrepreneurs and investors in China and Russia By Bat Batjargal; Bat Batjargal;
  2. China%u2019s FDI and Non-FDI Economies and the Sustainability of Future High Chinese Growth By John Whalley; Xian Xin
  3. The Determinants of Asset Stripping: Theory and Evidence From the Transition Economies By Nauro F. Campos; Francesco Giovannoni;
  4. China’s Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices, and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu? By Ronald Ian McKinnon; Gunther Schnabl
  5. Labour Market Concentration and Migration Patterns in Russia By Bignebat, C.
  6. Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take us to Dinner? - Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., Eu, Japan and China By Hans Fehr; Sabine Jokisch; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  7. The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries By Frait, Jan; Komarek, Lubos; Meleck, Martin
  8. Programs of regional development revisited - case of the Russian Federation By Alexander Granberg; Alexander Pelyasov
  9. Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER? By Ian Babetskii; Balázs Égert;
  10. The Political Economy of Industrial Policy in China: The Case of Aircraft Manufacturing By Andrea Goldstein; ;
  11. Monetary Policy and Asset Prices : What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States? By Frait, Jan; Komarek, Lubos
  12. Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just Another Blur Project? By Balázs Égert; Amalia Morales-Zumaquero;
  13. Autonomy and Performance of Foreign Subsidiaries in five Transition Countries By Urmas Varblane; Katrin Männik; Helena Hannula
  14. Economic Reform and Changing Patterns of Labor Force Participation in Urban and Rural China By Margaret Maurer-Fazio; James Hughes; Dandan Zhang
  15. Realising the Oil Supply Potential of the CIS: The Impact of Institutions and Policies By Rudiger Ahrend; William Tompson
  16. Labor Market Trends and Institutions in Belarus By Zuzana Brixiova; Vera Volchok;
  17. Does Economic Uncertainty Affect the Decision to Bear Children? Evidence from East and West Germany By Sumon Kumar Bhaumik; Jeffrey B. Nugent;
  18. Economic integration, regional structural change and cohesion in the EU new member-states By Dimitris Kallioras; George Petrakos; Georgios Fotopoulos
  19. How to Catch Foreign Fish? FDI and Privatization in EU Accession Countries By Bruno Merlevede; Koen Schoors;
  20. Which Firms Have a Soft Loan ? Managers' Believes in a Cross-Country Survey in Transition Economies By Bignebat, C.; Gouret, F.
  21. Dynamiques de pauvreté en Russie : une analyse en termes d'entrées et sorties à l'aide des modèles de durée By Matthieu Clément
  24. Clusters and Territorial-Industrial Complexes - Similar Approaches or Different Concepts? - first Evidence from Analysis of Development of Russian Regions By Igor Pilipenko
  25. The Challenges of EMU Accession Faced by Catching-up Countries: A Slovak Republic Case Study By Anne-Marie Brook
  26. Bank Supervision Russian style: Rules versus Enforcement and Tacit Objectives By Sophie Claeys,; Gleb Lanine; Koen Schoors
  29. New empirical insights into the growth effects of economic integration within EU By Tomasz Brodzicki
  30. Droit de propriété et réforme du secteur d'État By Thierry Pairault
  31. The Pattern of Spatially Concentrated Industries in East Germany - A Contribution to the Discussion on Economic “Clusters“ By Martin T.W. Rosenfeld; Peter Franz; Gerhard Heimpold
  32. Approches tontinières (première partie) : de la France à la Chine en passant par la Cochinchine et autres lieux By Thierry Pairault

  1. By: Bat Batjargal; Bat Batjargal;
    Abstract: Most studies on entrepreneurs’ networks incorporate social capital and networks as independent variables that affect entrepreneurs’ actions and its outcomes. By contrast, this article examines social capital of the Chinese and Russian entrepreneurs and venture capitalists as dependent variables, and it examines entrepreneurs’ social capital from the perspectives of institutional theory and cultural theory. The empirical data are composed of structured telephone interviews with 159 software entrepreneurs, and the data of 124 venture capital decisions in Beijing and Moscow. The study found that social networks of the Chinese entrepreneurs are smaller in size, denser in structure, and more homogeneous in composition compared to networks of the Russian entrepreneurs due to the institutional and cultural differences between the two countries. Furthermore, the study revealed that dyadic (two-person) ties are stronger and interpersonal trust is greater in China than in Russia. The research and practical implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Social capital, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, China and Russia.
    JEL: M13 F23 G24
    Date: 2005–07–01
  2. By: John Whalley; Xian Xin
    Abstract: This paper presents assesses of the contribution of inward FDI to China’s recent rapid economic growth using a two stage growth accounting approach. Recent econometric literature focuses on testing whether Chinese growth depends on inward FDI rather than measuring the contribution. Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs), often (but not exclusively) are joint ventures between foreign companies and Chinese enterprises, and can be thought of as forming a distinctive subpart of the Chinese economy. These enterprises account for over 50% of China’s exports and 60% of China’s imports. Their share in Chinese GDP has been over 20% in the last two years, but they employ only 3% of the workforce, since their average labor productivity exceeds that of Non-FIEs by around 9:1. Their production is more heavily for export rather than the domestic market because FIEs provide access to both distribution systems abroad and product design for export markets. Our decomposition results indicate that China’s FIEs may have contributed over 40% of China’s economic growth in 2003 and 2004, and without this inward FDI, China’s overall GDP growth rate could have been around 3.4 percentage points lower. We suggest that the sustainability of both China’ export and overall economic growth may be questionable if inward FDI plateaus in the future.
    JEL: F43 O40
    Date: 2006–05
  3. By: Nauro F. Campos; Francesco Giovannoni;
    Abstract: During the transition from plan to market, managers and politicians succeeded in maintaining control of large parts of the stock of socialist physical capital. Despite the obvious importance of this phenomenon, there have been no efforts to model, measure and investigate this process empirically. This paper tries to fill this gap by putting forward theory and econometric evidence. We argue that asset stripping is driven by the interplay between the firm’s potential profitability and its ability to influence law enforcement. Our econometric results, for about 950 firms in five transition economies, provide support for this argument.
    Keywords: Asset stripping, law enforcement, corruption, transition.
    JEL: H82 K42 O17 P26 P31
    Date: 2005–08–01
  4. By: Ronald Ian McKinnon; Gunther Schnabl
    Abstract: China keeps its exchange rate tightly fixed to the dollar. Its productivity growth and trade surplus have been high, and it continues to accumulate large dollar reserves. Many observers take this as evidence that the renminbi is undervalued and should be appreciated to reduce the Chinese trade surplus. We argue that an appreciation of the renminbi need not reduce China’s trade surplus but could cause serious deflation in China. To show this, we consider international adjustment between China and the United States from both an asset-market and a labor-market perspective, and compare this to Japan’s unsuccessful appreciation of the yen.
    Keywords: China, exchange rate, adjustment, assets markets, labour markets
    JEL: F15 F31 F33
    Date: 2006
  5. By: Bignebat, C.
    Abstract: The following development proposes to focus on an underestimated aspect of the Russian restructuring process, namely the evolution of single industry areas throughout transition. We argue that the highly concentrated structure of the post-soviet labour market influences the transformation trend of the Russian economy: to assess this proposition, we describe the phenomenon and quantify it. Then, we use this information to investigate migration patterns in the Russian Federation: as employment is less diverse, these cities should experience outflows of inhabitants. However, we find empirical evidence that specialisation has no influence on migrations. ...French Abstract : L'article développe un aspect sous-estimé de la transition russe, à savoir celui de l'évolution des localités où se situe une unique entreprise. Cette structure du marché du travail caractérisée par une forte concentration du travail influence la transformation de l'économie russe. On commence par décrire ce phénomène et le quantifier. On utilise alors cette information pour étudier les flux migratoires dans les villes de la Fédération de Russie : quand les opportunités d'emploi sont moins diversifiées au niveau local, on devrait observer un solde migratoire négatif au niveau des villes. Cependant, nous montrons ici que la spécialisation très forte des villes dans un secteur n'a pas d'influence sur les migrations. On dérive alors les déterminants de celles-ci.
    JEL: J6 R1 P25
    Date: 2006
  6. By: Hans Fehr (University of Wuerzburg); Sabine Jokisch (Univeristy of Wuerzburg); Laurence J. Kotlikoff (Institute for Economic Development, Boston University)
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S.,and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging that will require major fiscal adjustments. But the aging of these societies may be a cloud with a silver lining coming, in this case, in the form of capital deepening that will raise real wages. In a previous model that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world’s demographic transition would lead to a major capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital over time by one fifth. A recalibration of our original model that treats government purchases of capital goods as investment rather than current consumption suggests this concern was overstated. With government investment included, we find much less crowding out over the course of the century and only a 4 percent long-run decline in real wages. Adding China to the model further alters, indeed, dramatically alters, the model’s predictions. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are currently very different from those of developed countries. If successive cohorts of Chinese continue to save like current cohorts, if the Chinese government can restrain growth in expenditures, and if Chinese technology and education levels ultimately catch up with those of the West and Japan, the model’s long run looks much brighter. China eventually becomes the world’s saver and, thereby, the developed world’s savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth percent by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. These wage increases are over and above those associated with technical progress, which we model as increasing the human capital endowments of successive cohorts. Even if the Chinese saving behavior (captured by its time preference rate) gradually approaches that of Americans, developed world real wages per unit of human capital are roughly 17 percent higher in 2030 and 4 percent higher at the end of the century. Without China they’d be only 2 percent higher in 2030 and, as mentioned, 4 percent lower at Century’s end. What’s more, the major short-run outflow of the developed world’s capital to China predicted by our model does not come at the cost of lower wages in the developed world. The reason is that the knowledge that their future wages will be higher (thanks to China’s future capital accumulation) leads our model’s workers to cut back on their current labor supply. So the shortrun outflow of capital to China is met with a commensurate short-run reduction in developed world labor supply, leaving the short-run ratio of physical capital to human capital, on which wages positively depend, actually somewhat higher than would otherwise be the case. Our model does not capture the endogenous determination of skill premiums studied by Heckman and Taber (1996). Doing so could well show that trade with China, at least in the short run, explains much of the relative decline in the wages of low-skilled workers in the developed world. Hence, we don’t mean to suggest here that all US, EU, and Japanese workers are being helped by trade with China, but rather that trade with China is, on average, raising the wages of developed world workers and will continue to do so. The notion that China, India, and other developing countries will alleviate the developed world’s demographic problems has been stressed by Siegel (2005). Our paper, although it includes only one developing country – China – supports Siegel’s optimistic long-term macroeconomic view. On the other hand, our findings about the developed world’s fiscal condition are quite troubling. Even under the most favorable macroeconomic scenario, tax rates will rise dramatically over time in the developed world to pay baby boomers their government-promised pension and health benefits. As Argentina has so recently shown, countries can grow quite well for years even with unsustainable fiscal policies. But if they wait too long to address those policies, the financial markets will do it for them, with often quite ruinous consequences.
    Date: 2005–09
  7. By: Frait, Jan (Czech National Bank, Prague); Komarek, Lubos (Czech National Bank, Prague); Meleck, Martin (University of New South Wales, Sydney)
    Abstract: The paper focuses on the developments of real exchange rates and their fundamental determinants in the five new EU Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia). First, the approaches that can be used for estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates are briefly discussed. Then, we use well-established determinants of real exchange rates associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to assess misalignments of the real exchange rates for the five new EU Member States. The estimates of the equilibrium exchange rates are obtained by means of both purely statistical approaches (HP filter, band-pass filter) and applying several multivariate estimation methods to our reduced-form BEER model. The results obtained indicate that the tendency towards appreciation of real exchange rates in the economies under consideration have been driven primarily by fundamental determinants.
    Keywords: Exchange rate misalignments ; equilibrium exchange rates ; ERM II ; Central European Countries
    Date: 2006
  8. By: Alexander Granberg; Alexander Pelyasov
    Abstract: One of unexpected results of the economic reform in Russia was the rebirth of interest for regional programs and schemes as documents of strategic planning. Regional and municipal authorities, scientific community (not only Keynesian-like, but liberal economist Friedman-style as well), big and small business community, and civil society structures, now emerging in the Russian regions, all demonstrate their interest towards regional programs and schemes. Of course these documents are not of directive character now. They are of coordinative, partnership nature, oriented to consolidate efforts and resources of the state, business, citizens for modernization of the regional economy and increase of the GRP. Their ideology is based not only on principles of Soviet economists under the Gosplan era but on the achievements of institutional theory, theory of regional markets and the experience of regional policy in the European Union. However, in spite of new methodology of contemporary Russian regional programs and schemes, they neglect post-industrial challenges ahead of the country, in their concrete projects. For instance, cluster of federal programs of regional parity (“Diminishing discrepancies between Russian regions”, “Socio-economic development of Kaliningrad; the Kurils Islands; Far-Eastern regions; Southern republics in the European Russia”), in contrast with cluster of federal programs on the new economy, deals only with current social problems. These defects of contemporary federal and regional programs of socio-economic development can be seen precisely in the federal Program “Diminishing discrepancies between Russian regions intil 2015” approved by federal government in 2001. In this document possibilities to decrease striking contrasts between leaders and outsiders are connected with state financed projects of social and communal infrastructure in the 40 oblasts, republics and okrugs, whose level of social and economic development is beyond the average. Same problems in the EU regions are solved by projects directed to increase the quality of human resources. They are proved to be very efficient. During the last years Council for Research for Productive Forces (CRPF) has been eleborated four programs of socio-economic development: for Republic of Komi, Kemerovo and Jewish Oblasts, Khanty-Mansi autonomous Okrug. These documents are not comprehensive in contrast with their Soviet predecessors. They deal with numbered list of problems. They admit that regional development is multi-actors process. Structures of regional authorities, business, civil society participate in the projects under the Program. Many program measures are oriented to provide balance of interest for economic agents. Special attention is devoted to improve regional norms and rules of economic behaviour for economic actors in the new section titled “Development of the regional normative base”. CRPF is working under schemes of development and allocation of productive forces for Khanty-mansy autonomous Okrug and Chechen Republic. In comparison with programs schemes are more long-term documents of territorial planning. Also they include different variants of future development for every municipality. Experience of several federative states in the European Union meeting the challenge of striking inter-regional contrasts proves the necessity to elaborate new federal program “Innovative region” for the Russian Federation. It can be seen as analogue of the German program “Innoregio”. This new program should affirm new perception of creative region (now dominating perception in the federal programs is about region as the location of social problems), stimulate build-up of regional innovative systems, development of post-industrial activities. Russian programs and schemes as tools of regional policy which in the Soviet era were so distinct from Europeans by their directive ideology, central role of the state, slowly but straightforwardly are synchronizing with their analogues in the EU by their goals, tasks, and mechanisms.
    Date: 2005–08
  9. By: Ian Babetskii; Balázs Égert;
    Abstract: This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna using the reduced form equation of the stock-ow approach advocated, for instance, by Faruqee (1995) and Alberola and others (1999). We investigate whether or not the observed real exchange rate of the Czech koruna is close to its equilibrium value over the period from 1993 to 2004. Our empirical approach is tantamount to the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) popularised by MacDonald (1997) and Clark and MacDonald (1998) in that the Czech real exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro is regressed on the dual productivity differential and the net foreign assets position, based on which actual and total misalignment gures are derived in a time series context. In other words, we check the quality of the Czech BEER. We also study the impact of a possible initial undervaluation on the estimated equilibrium exchange rate. Employing monthly time series from 1993:M1 to 2004:M9 and applying several alternative cointegration techniques, we identify a period of an overvaluation in 1997 and in 1999, an increasing overvaluation till 2002, an undervaluation in 2003 and a correction towards equilibrium in the second half of 2004
    Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate; real exchange rate; behavioral equilibrium exchange rate; Czech koruna, transition economies; stock-ow approach; productivity.
    JEL: F31
    Date: 2005–07–01
  10. By: Andrea Goldstein; ;
    Abstract: Since 1960, only one new country, Brazil, has succeeded in delivering more than one civil jet per month. Otherwise, all the countries now offering world-class planes were established in aviation by the end of World War I. This being said, low-cost producers within several of the newly emerging markets have already acquired front-end manufacturing expertise as a direct result of industrial offset contracts and/or other forms of technology transfer. In all such cases, government intervention, notably through state ownership, has been predominant, but failures have been numerous in view of the difficulty of aligning ownership structure to financial, managerial, and technological requirements and of garnering the support of domestic interest groups. In this paper the focus is China’s efforts to build a world-class aircraft manufacturing industry. In the first half of the 1990s the potential of the Chinese industry to mount a competitive challenge to Western aircraft builders was largely discounted. Nowadays, as China strives to bear the ARJ-21 project to execution and even considers entering the market for wide-bodies, the threat is taken more seriously. The growth in the Chinese air transport market has reinforced the bargaining power of national aircraft producers and authorities are giving priority to building science and technology capacity in this area. Progress in creating military/civilian synergies has proven much more modest – especially when compared to the shipbuilding industry – and better coordination in the overall industry comes a distant fourth in the explanations’ peaking order.
    Keywords: aerospace, China
    JEL: H11 L62 O14
    Date: 2005–07–01
  11. By: Frait, Jan (Czech National Bank, Prague); Komarek, Lubos (Czech National Bank, Prague and Prague School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices. Besides surveying the general discussion, it attempts to extend it to recent developments in the new Member States of the EU (NMS), namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the EU4). After a brief description of the current macroeconomic situation in the NMS, the appropriate reaction of monetary policy to asset price bubbles is dealt with and the main pros and cons associated with this reaction are summarised. Afterwards, the risks of asset market bubbles in the EU4 countries are evaluated. Since the capital markets are still underdeveloped and the real estate price boom seems to be a natural reaction to the initial undervaluation, the risks are viewed as rather small. The conclusion is thus that it is crucial for central banks in mature economies as well as in the NMS to conduct their monetary policies as well as their supervisory and regulatory roles in a way that does not promote the build-up of asset market bubbles. In exceptional times, central banks of small open economies must be ready to use monetary policy steps as a kind of insurance against the adverse effects of potential asset market bubbles.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy ; Asset Markets ; Central Banking ; New EU Member States
    JEL: E52 E58 G12
    Date: 2006
  12. By: Balázs Égert; Amalia Morales-Zumaquero;
    Abstract: This paper attempts to analyze the direct impact of exchange rate volatility on the export performance of ten Central and Eastern European transition economies as well as its indirect impact via changes in exchange rate regimes. Not only aggregate but also bilateral and sectoral export ows are studied. To this end, we rst analyze shifts in exchange rate volatility linked to changes in the exchange rate regimes and second, use these changes to construct dummy variables we include in our export function. The results suggest that the size and the direction of the impact of forex volatility and of regime changes on exports vary considerably across sectors and countries and that they may be related to specic periods.
    Keywords: exchange rate volatility, export, trade, transition, structural breaks
    JEL: F31
    Date: 2005–07–01
  13. By: Urmas Varblane; Katrin Männik; Helena Hannula
    Abstract: The paper analyses the link between the autonomy according to business function and the performance of foreign subsidiaries in Slovenia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Estonia. The novelty of the paper is in the deeper investigation of the multidimensionality of autonomy. Using the method of principal components, four business function factors relating to autonomy were obtained (technology, marketing, management, finance). The results supported the argument that the relationship between autonomy and performance depends on the type of autonomy. Marketing and finance are the most powerful dimensions of autonomy. Higher autonomy in marketing is negatively linked with technology upgrading, measured by productivity level, improvement of technological level of production equipment, and quality of products. The higher the financial autonomy of the subsidiaries the bigger the positive changes in all fields of performance.
    Keywords: international technology transfer, FDI effects on the host economy, subsidiary autonomy, subsidiary performance, transition countries
    JEL: F21 O30 O14
    Date: 2005–07–01
  14. By: Margaret Maurer-Fazio; James Hughes; Dandan Zhang
    Abstract: In this project, we employ data from the Chinese population censuses of 1982, 1990, and 2000 to examine reform-era changes in the patterns of male and female labor force participation and in the distribution of men’s and women’s occupational attainment. Very marked patterns of change in labor force participation emerge when we disaggregate the data by age cohort, marital status, sex, and rural/urban location. Women have decreased their labor force participation more than men, and urban women much more than rural women. Single young people in urban areas have decreased their labor force participation to stay in school to a much greater extent than single young people in rural areas. The urban elderly have decreased their rates of labor force participation while the rural elderly have increased theirs. We also find evidence of the feminization of agriculture.
    Keywords: China, labor force participation, economic reform, occupational attainment, population censuses
    JEL: J0 J16 J21 J62 O15 O53
    Date: 2005–08–01
  15. By: Rudiger Ahrend; William Tompson
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the political economy of oil in the CIS. It briefly situates the region?s oil sector potential in the global context, before analysing the structural features of the oil sectors by country. It examines the ways in which CIS oil industries have been organised and governed since 1991, as well as questions of transport infrastructure and export routes, which are especially critical for Central Asia?s landlocked producers. The paper finally considers the causes and likely consequences of the recent shift towards greater state ownership and control in Russia and Kazakhstan, the region?s most important oil producers. The paper?s central argument is that these changes have increased the risk that the full hydrocarbon potential of the CIS may not be developed in a timely and economically efficient way. <P>Réaliser le potentiel pétrolier des pays de la CEI Cette étude présente un panorama de l?économie politique du secteur pétrolier dans les pays de la CEI. Après une brève description du potentiel de la région, vu dans un contexte global, une analyse des caractéristiques structurelles des secteurs pétroliers pays par pays est présentée. L?étude propose également un examen des modes d?organisation et de gestion des industries pétrolières depuis 1991, ainsi que des questions d?infrastructure de transport et des routes de transit pour l?exportation, qui sont particulièrement cruciales pour les producteurs enclavés d?Asie Centrale. Enfin, les causes et les conséquences probables du mouvement récent vers un contrôle croissant du secteur par l?état en Russie et au Kazakhstan, les deux plus importants producteurs de la région, sont analysées. La conclusion principale de l?étude est que ces changements ont accru le risque que le plein potentiel des pays de la CEI ne soit pas développé de manière opportune et économiquement efficiente.
    Keywords: growth, corruption, croissance, privatisation, privatisation, energy, énergie, Russia, pipelines, state ownership, Russie, entreprise d'État, oil, property rights, pétrole, droit de propriété, corruption, political economy, économie politique, CIS, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Caspian, CEI, Kazakhstan, Azerbaïdjan, Ouzbékistan, Turkménistan, Caspienne, oléoducs, Azerbaijan
    JEL: L71 O57 P28 Q41
    Date: 2006–06–12
  16. By: Zuzana Brixiova; Vera Volchok;
    Abstract: In most countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, the transition to market led to the emergence of a private sector and open unemployment. The Belarusian labor market is characterized by low official unemployment, combined with a low share of the private sector in the aggregate employment. However, the cumulative fall in employment since 1990 has been similar to other transition economies, leading to a sharp reduction of labor force, and the youth unemployment remains high. The mismatch in skills between the unemployed and the vacancies and the geographical mismatch suggest that policies aimed at improving skills and increasing mobility are needed. At the same time, the low vacancy-unemployment ratio calls for policies aimed at encouraging private job creation. An immediate policy concern for the government is to launch a labor market reform that would balance providing adequate protection for workers with the need to design the incentives for the unemployed workers to search for new jobs.
    Keywords: labor markets, institutions, transition
    JEL: J21 J31 P23
    Date: 2005–06–01
  17. By: Sumon Kumar Bhaumik; Jeffrey B. Nugent;
    Abstract: Although economic agents routinely face various types of economic uncertainty, their effects are often unclear and hard to assess, in part due to the absence of suitable measures of uncertainty. Because of the numerous and very substantial institutional changes that people in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe experienced during the last two decades, these countries are excellent candidates for examining the effects of uncertainties on various kinds of behavior. During their periods of uncertainty, moreover, these countries have experienced sharply falling fertility rates. Some have argued that these two phenomena are linked but others have remained skeptical in view of the fact that the evidence is largely confined to the macro level. This paper demonstrates the existence of such a link at the micro level using two different types of uncertainty measures based on GSOEP data from Eastern (and for comparison purposes also Western) Germany for the years 1992-2002. The results suggest that employment uncertainty (but not financial uncertainty) was considerably greater in Eastern Germany during its transition than in Western Germany and had a highly nonlinear effect on the probability of a birth in any period. The result is rather robust to differences in specification and suggests that the higher employment uncertainty in East Germany in the transition could have contributed significantly to the sharp fall and unusually low level of its fertility. In view of the results, we argue that an options based theory is perhaps a richer analytical paradigm for a discussion of fertility decisions in a rapidly changing environment than the traditional Beckerian theory.
    Keywords: Falling Fertility, Uncertainty, Germany
    JEL: J13 J22 D81
    Date: 2005–08–01
  18. By: Dimitris Kallioras; George Petrakos; Georgios Fotopoulos
    Abstract: The European economic landscape has changed dramatically during the last decade, following the collapse of the bi-polar world. The parallel and interacting processes of economic integration and transition are the driving forces of these changes. In this context, the EU new member-states (including the candidate countries of Bulgaria and Romania) have experienced, often forcefully and painfully, the impact of these processes as a pre-condition for catch-up and integration with the prosperous EU-15 countries. Being still in progress, these processes have altered the intraregional division of labor, affecting the patterns of regional specialization and industrial concentration and increasing the level of interregional competition and inequalities, in a newly emerged internationalized environment. The extent and the impact of these changes, however, are still issues of major scientific dialogue and concern, with many unknown parameters. The need for this first period of transition and economic integration (decade of 90s) to be re-evaluated is evident concerning the mobility of economic activities and possible re-location of industries, the behaviour of the individual regions, the dynamics of regional discrepancies and the stability of the territorial structures. The overall scientific objective of this paper is to identify and explain in a cross-country and comparative analysis the structural industrial patterns in the area of EU new member-states bringing together the findings and reports of the scientific bibliography. Furthermore, a static and dynamic analysis takes place in order to uncover in more depth the possible relation between economic integration, regional structural change and cohesion in these countries. To this direction, a number of research questions are addressed: What is the impact of economic integration to the evolution of regional industrial patterns? Have advanced and lagging-behind regions developed similar or different types of specialization? What is their mix of activities? Over time, do they become more similar or dissimilar? Have metropolitan regions the same mix of activities with peripheral and border regions? Do their economic structures become more similar or dissimilar over time? Are there particular types of structural change more closely related to strong growth performance? The main part of the analysis is conducted on a basis of employment data, as a proxy for industrial structures in NUTS III spatial level, disaggregated by manufacturing branches according to NACE rev.1 two-digit classification. Emphasis is given to the countries of Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Hungary and Estonia due to lack of statistical information (regional-structural figures) for the other countries under research. However, despite this shortcoming, the country sample of our analysis can be considered representative of the whole area since it covers all its parts i.e. Southeastern Europe–Balkans (Bulgaria, Romania), Central Europe (Slovenia, Hungary), Eastern Europe–Baltic (Estonia). The research covers the period between 1990 and 1999, a period of extreme significance since it includes both the shocks and the upsets of the early transition (sub-period 1991–1995) and the recent, more independent, trends (1995–1999). The reported findings and conclusions of this research may be a valuable basis for the understanding of the impact of economic integration on regional structure change and cohesion and, as a result, be the basis for the discussion of the appropriate policies of cohesion in the enlarged EU-27.
    Date: 2005–08
  19. By: Bruno Merlevede; Koen Schoors;
    Abstract: We examine the determinants of FDI stocks of ‘old’ EU-members in ten accession countries. Our partial adjustment framework results in a dynamic panel data analysis. In addition to the traditional variables, such as market potential and unit labour costs, we find institutional development to be a robust determinant of equilibrium FDI stocks. The adjustment towards equilibrium is rapid. The relationship between FDI and the privatization process is complex. Non-direct privatization schemes negatively affect the speed of adjustment, whereas direct privatization strategies positively affect the equilibrium itself. Privatization history increases equilibrium FDI stocks, independently of the method applied.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, privatisation, partial adjustment
    JEL: F20 F23 P33
    Date: 2005–08–01
  20. By: Bignebat, C.; Gouret, F.
    Abstract: This paper is an empirical work grounded in the soft budget constraint literature. A loan is soft when a bank cannot commit to hold an enterprise to a fixed initial budget and/or the timing of repayment. Using data collected by the EBRD (BEEPS 2002) in 26 transition economies, we analyze the determinants of managers' expectations to have a soft loan. We show that managers' believes integrate some of the decision criteria of the banks: managers' expectations to have soft loans are lower when the initial financing requires collateral, higher for big firms and higher when firms had recently experienced financial distress. ...French Abstract : Ce papier empirique s'inscrit dans la littérature sur la contrainte budgétaire lâche. Un prêt est lâche quand la banque ne peut pas s'engager, de manière crédible, à maintenir le prêt à un certain montant et/ou à certaines échéances. A l'aide de données collectées par la BERD (BEEPS 2002) dans 26 pays en transition, on analyse les croyances des managers d'obtenir un prêt lâche. Les managers intègrent dans leurs croyances les critères de décision des banques. Les anticipations d'avoir un prêt lâche sont plus faibles quand le financement engage un collatéral. Les grandes firmes et les firmes qui ont connu des difficultés financières ont, elles, des anticipations plus élevées.
    JEL: D84 G3 O12 P21
    Date: 2006
  21. By: Matthieu Clément (CED, IFReDE/GRES, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)
    Abstract: La pauvreté en Russie est un phénomène principalement transitoire, signifiant par là même l'existence de nombreux mouvements d'entrées et sorties dans/de de la pauvreté. L'analyse des dynamiques de pauvreté requiert par conséquent d'évaluer des probabilités de transition. A cet égard, les modèles de durée offre certaines promesses dans la mesure où ils visent à évaluer la probabilité d'occurrence d'un évènement conditionnelle à la durée passée dans un état particulier. Cet article utilise les données longitudinales des enquêtes Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey afin d'étudier les transitions de pauvreté en Russie entre 1994 et 2000 à l'aide des modèles de durée. Dans un premier temps, l'estimation des probabilités de transition à l'aide d'une méthode non paramétrique montre que les taux d'entrée et de sortie dépendent négativement de la durée des épisodes de non pauvreté et de pauvreté. De plus, même si les taux de sortie sont supérieurs aux taux d'entrée, l'importance des taux de retour dans la pauvreté suggère que la plupart du temps, les sorties ne sont pas définitives. Dans un second temps, nous estimons des modèles logistiques à temps discret, séparément pour les sorties et les entrées, afin d'identifier les facteurs associés aux transitions de pauvreté. Les résultats indiquent d'une part que les caractéristiques du marché du travail sont cruciales dans l'explication des entrées dans la pauvreté, mais ont moins d'influence sur les sorties. D'autre part, nous soulignons la situation paradoxale des ménages de retraités en montrant qu'ils ont une probabilité de rester pauvres plus élevée que la moyenne, mais présente un risque d'entrée dans la pauvreté moindre. Enfin, nous introduisons dans les modèles des variables censées rendre compte de l'influence du comportement stratégique des ménages et insistons sur la distinction entre stratégies de promotion et stratégies de prévention. A titre d'illustration, les résultats indiquent que l'accès à la terre facilite les sorties de pauvreté alors que les transferts publics sont décisifs pour protéger les ménages faisant face à un risque d'entrée dans la pauvreté. Poverty in Russia is mainly a transitory phenomenon which means that there are a lot of transitions in and out of poverty. As a consequence, the analysis of poverty dynamics requires to evaluate transition probabilities. In this respect, duration models offer some promises in so far as they aim at measuring the probability of occurence of an event, conditional at the duration spent in a particular state. This paper uses longitudinal data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to study poverty transitions in Russia between 1994 and 2000, using duration analysis. In a first time, the estimation of transition rates for Russia with a non parametric method show that exit and entry rates depend negatively on poverty and non poverty spells duration. Moreover, even if exit rates are higher than entry rates, the importance of reentry rates suggest that most of the time, poverty exits are not definitive. In a second time, we estimate logistic discrete-time models, separately for poverty exits and poverty entries, in order to identify factors which are associated with poverty transitions. On the one hand, the results indicate that labour market characteristics are crucial in the explanation of poverty entries but have less influence on poverty exits. On the other hand, we point out the paradoxal situation of elderly people showing that they have more risk to stay in poverty than other people but less risk to enter it. Finally we introduce variables which take into account the strategic behaviour of households and insist on the distinction between promotion strategies and protection strategies. As an example, the results show that land access facilitate poverty exit whereas public transfers are decisive in order to prevent households falling into poverty. (Full text in french)
    JEL: C41 I32 P20
    Date: 2004–11
  22. By: Hrabrin Bachev (Institute of Agricultural Economics, Sofia, Bulgaria)
    Abstract: Attempt has been made to identify dominant forms and factors for output realization in Bulgarian farms. New Institutional and Transaction Costs Economics framework is used to estimate comparative efficiency of various modes for realization of farm outputs in farms of different type (unregistered, cooperative, agro-firms) and various sizes (small, middle-size, large). Study is based on a large-scale microeconomic data collected through interviews with managers of 0.5% of commercial farms in the country. Big institutional, economic, and behavioral uncertainty combined with high assets specificity and low recurrence of transactions, have blocked formation of agrarian markets in the country. Market has “failed” to organize significant part of inputs supply and outputs realization transactions. However, agrarian agents have developed various private modes to overcome transacting difficulties and to govern their dependent transactions. A great variety of in-farm production and processing, personal contacts, long-term marketing contracts, and interlinked modes etc. have come to existence and they characterize dominant structures for outputs realization in Bulgarian farming today. Major type of farming outputs realization (household consumption and giving to friends and relatives; production in-farm consumption; additional processing in-farm; long-term contract for outside processing; sell) in farms of different types and sizes has been identified and their relative share in brut farm output determined. Product specificity (grain, vegetables, fruits and grape, live animals and meat, milk, others) and its relation to specific organizational choice of outputs realization (member cooperative; other farm, cooperative or firms; retail trade; wholesale trade to store, hotel, restaurant; commodity exchange; wholesale market; in-farm processing; state reserve; direct export) have been identified and microeconomic factors for governance choice discussed. Importance of diverse factors for preferring a particular buyer or mode for realization of farm outputs (lack of alternative buyer; best prices; maximum profit; minimum risk; cheapest way; maximum security; high trust; tradition; frequency of transactions with the same partner) have been specified. Prominence of various transacting problems for realization (lack of buyers; low prices; unstable prices; no price information; no buyer information; buyer is better informed; unreliable partner; not-fulfillment of negotiated terms; controlling and enforcement of contracts; non-business factors etc.) for main farming products and type of farms have been specified. In the same way the significance of chief factors for successful realization (mutual benefits for partners; written contract; oral agreement; third-party assistance; good will of partners; tradition; trust; beneficial for farm prices; lack of competition) have been identified. High marketing costs along with the big enforcement costs of contracts in general, and enormous credit supply costs are the major factors restricting farm enlargement of Bulgarian farms as present stage. Besides, the most important factors for farm development in future relate to improvement of institutional environment (guaranteed marketing, enforcement of Laws and private contracts, macro-economic stability, legislation framework, access to free markets), and own and family experience in farm management.
    Keywords: governing of output realization and marketing; transaction cost economics; transitional farm organization
    JEL: D1 D2 D3 D4
    Date: 2005–11–06
  23. By: Daniel Daianu; Ella Kallai;
    Abstract: Disinflation has been pursued successfully in Romania in recent years. Inflation came down from over 40 per cent in 2001 to 14 per cent in 2003 and is expected to be cca 9.5 per cent in 2004. By 2007 it should come down to around 3%. The benefits of a lowinflation environment are unquestionable, as price stability is the ultimate objective of monetary policy. In addition, low inflation is a pre-condition for EU accession. There only remains the other critical question, namely, what is the proper strategy to achieve the ultimate objective. Different central banks have adopted strategies which place different emphasize on the various pieces of information, or elements of their decision-making process or different aspects of their communication policies. Inflation targeting (IT) is one of those strategies.
    Keywords: inflation-targeting, transition economy, EU accession
    JEL: E52 F41 P44
    Date: 2005–11–01
  24. By: Igor Pilipenko
    Abstract: The cluster concept has been attracting a special attention of scholars and policymakers since almost 15 years due to considerable contribution of its theoretical results to practical rising of national and regional competitiveness. The concept of territorial-industrial complex (TIC) elaborated by Soviet regional economists and economic geographers in 1920-1980s realised the idea of optimisation of industrial production within a certain territory in the planning economy according to its endowments of natural and labour resources. At the first sight, these two concepts have many things in common, but in reality they have many differences. First, they were elaborated in different economic systems, which have various aims of economic activity. Secondly, clusters and TICs have different genesis, because in case of TICs theoretical and applied research resulted in practical construction of TICs, while clusters are generally forming themselves as a result of the market “invisible hand”. Thirdly, clusters and TICs are normally located in different types of regions: clusters tend to form in within agglomerations, while TICs were constructed mainly in newly developed regions with low population density. Fourthly, they differ also in terms of their structure. Clusters are groups of companies from one or related in industries often connected to R&D institutions and government structures, but TICs are inter-industrial complexes that involve production chains between different industries. Fifthly, cluster firms specialise in production of buyer-oriented good and services, while TICs' plants and factories represented producer-oriented heavy industries and machinery. Sixthly, the role of information flows between cluster SMEs and their staffs makes one of key distinctions between these two concepts. Seventhly, higher wages in cluster labour pools and higher productivity in cluster firms lead to raising of regional competitiveness while in the concept of TICs people are considered to be one of factors of TIC's development as well as natural resources, infrastructure, etc. A general weak development of SMEs in Russia restricts so far the development of regional/local clusters, but nevertheless some examples of local clusters can be found. One of them is an expanding cluster of small and medium IT-enterprises in Novosibirsk (Western Siberia) that has been developing since the beginning of 1990s in the region that inherits its original industrial specialization from TICs. The cluster firms have tight connections to R&D institutions from Akademgorodok (Science city), Novosibirsk State University, and Technopark Novosibirsk; the intensive information flows and exchange of know-how can be observed between cluster firms and their staffs; the productivity and wages within cluster are higher than in surrounding districts. Development of clusters of SMEs makes differences between clusters and TICs more obvious. The further development of Russian economy may lead to its dual spatial structure – combination of big and medium plants established within TIC concept till the end of 1980s and clusters of SMEs developing since the beginning of 1990s in agglomerations.
    Date: 2005–08
  25. By: Anne-Marie Brook
    Abstract: The Maastricht criteria for accession to the euro area can be difficult for any economy to achieve, not least because of the challenges posed by the “impossible trinity”, which suggests that it is not possible to target both a stable exchange rate and stable inflation at the same time as maintaining free capital mobility. But for poorer economies which are catching up to the living standards of the wealthier EMU members, the challenges are magnified. This is because economies with very high productivity growth may have larger Balassa-Samuelson effects, resulting in higher steady state inflation rates as well as gradually appreciating equilibrium real exchange rates. While some nominal appreciation is permitted during ERM-II membership, the rules do not make it easy to signal the magnitude of expected appreciation. This may lead to poorly anchored exchange rates, making the catching-up economies more vulnerable to the challenges of the impossible trinity. Moreover, countries that have recently introduced fully-funded pension pillars which involve high transition costs, may find it difficult to meet the Maastricht criteria for government finances. It is unclear whether recent changes to the Stability and Growth Pact will alleviate the short-term fiscal pressure on countries that have improved the long-term sustainability of their government finances at the cost of short-term deterioration to their fiscal deficits. The example of Slovakia is used to illustrate these points, and a number of policy guidelines are proposed to minimise the risks. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of the Slovak Republic ( <P>Problèmes posés aux pays en phase de rattrapage par l'adhésion à l'UME Toute économie peut éprouver des difficultés à répondre aux critères de Maastricht pour adhérer à la zone euro, surtout en raison des problèmes posés par l’«impossible trinité», selon laquelle il n’est pas possible de poursuivre à la fois les objectifs de stabilité du taux de change et de l’inflation tout en maintenant la liberté des mouvements de capitaux. Cependant, pour les économies plus défavorisées qui sont en train de rattraper le niveau de vie des membres les plus riches de l’UME, les difficultés sont encore amplifiées. Cela s’explique par le fait que les économies dont la croissance de la productivité est très rapide peuvent enregistrer des effets Balassa-Samuelson plus marqués, se traduisant par des taux d’inflation constamment plus élevés ainsi que par une appréciation progressive des taux de change réels d’équilibre. Si une certaine appréciation nominale est autorisée durant la phase de participation au MCE-II, les réglementations applicables ne permettent pas aisément d’indiquer l’ampleur de l’appréciation attendue. Cela peut se traduire par une instabilité des taux de change et rendre les économies en phase de rattrapage plus vulnérables aux défis de l’impossible trinité. De plus, les pays qui ont instauré récemment des piliers de système de retraite par capitalisation entraînant des coûts de transition élevés pourraient éprouver des difficultés à respecter les critères de Maastricht en matière de finances publiques. On ne sait pas encore si les modifications récentes du Pacte de stabilité et de croissance allègeront la pression fiscale à court terme sur les pays qui ont amélioré la viabilité à long terme de leurs finances publiques au prix d’une détérioration à court terme de leurs déficits budgétaires. L’exemple de la Slovaquie est utilisé pour illustrer ces points et un certain nombre d’orientations de politique économique sont proposées pour minimiser les risques. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l'Étude économique de l'OCDE de la République slovaque, 2005 (
    Keywords: stability and growth pact, pacte de stabilité et de croissance, impossible trinity, Balassa-Samuelson effect, EMU accession, Maastricht criteria, impossible trinité, effet Balassa-Samuelson, adhésion à l'UME, critère de Maastricht
    JEL: F31 F33 O52
    Date: 2005–09–21
  26. By: Sophie Claeys,; Gleb Lanine; Koen Schoors
    Abstract: We focus on the conflict between two central bank objectives, namely individual bank stability and systemic stability. We study the licensing policy of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) in 1999-2002. Banks in poorly banked regions, banks that are too big to be disciplined adequately and banks that are active on the interbank market enjoy protection from license withdrawal, showing a tacit concern for systemic stability. The CBR is also reluctant to withdraw licenses from banks that violate the individuals’ deposits to capital ratio, because this conflicts with the tacit CBR objective to secure depositor trust and systemic stability.
    Keywords: Bank supervision, bank crisis, Russia.
    JEL: G2 N2 E5
    Date: 2005–06–01
  27. By: Hrabrin Bachev (Institute of Agricultural Economics, Sofia, Bulgaria)
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to incorporate achievements of the New Institutional and Transaction Costs Economics to analysis of efficiency of agrarian organizations in transitional economies. That modern framework for analysis of agrarian organizations is based on their role to govern transactions between individual agents. Since governing (coordination, organization) of transactions is associated with significant costs (for finding best prices and partners, for negotiation and contracting, for monitoring and enforcement of contract terms, for adjustment and re-negotiation according to changed conditions of exchange, for dispute resolutions etc.), the economic efficiency of agrarian organizations has to assess not only their capacity to minimize the production costs, but their potential to economize transacting costs as well. Initially, main kinds of transactions of the managers of agrarian transactions (farms entrepreneurs) are clarified as land, labor, service, inputs, and finance supply; marketing; and collective actions. After that, the alternative market, non-market, and mixed modes for organization of different types of agrarian transitions are identified. Next, various types of costs associated with each form of transacting are determined. And then, the comparative efficiency of different governance structures is estimated according to (minimum) transacting costs criteria. One direction for evaluation of comparative efficiency of governing structures is based on direct assessment of items of costs for transaction in different organizations. However, that manner is often restricted since: difficulties (or impossibility) to measure absolute level of transaction costs; opposite dynamics of different items of costs in various organizations; great use of complex (and interlinked) rather than pure modes in transitional agriculture; and not existence (missing) of alternative form for organization (the base for comparison). Another direction is through comparative structural (qualitative) analysis of alternative governing forms. Firstly, critical factors of transactions in particular institutional environment are identified. These factors affect transaction costs variation, and they are associated: with behavioral characteristic of agrarian agents (bounded rationality, tendency for opportunism, building of reputation, risk aversion, level of trusts); and with economic dimensions of individual transactions (frequency, uncertainty, assets specificity and appropriability). Secondly, assessment is made on effective potential of alternative organizational modes to: minimize bounded rationality of agrarian agents and uncertainty associated with transacting; to appropriate and protect private investments from possible opportunism; to recover long-term investments for organizational development through high recurrence of transactions between same agents; to exploit economy of size and scale on specific for relationship with a particular partner capital etc. Third, principal matrix of generic organizational modes is build for effective governance of transactions with different combination of critical dimensions: free market mode if effective to carry out transactions with high appropriability and low assets specificity; the special contract form is appropriate for transactions with high frequency, and increased uncertainty and assets specificity; the internal integration can manage effectively repeated transactions with high capital dependency and big uncertainty; the hybrid and public modes are the most effective forms for occasional transactions with low appropriability and high assets specificity. Finally, effective horizontal and vertical boundaries of every specific form within each generic modes could be determined through comparison of their potential to explore economy of size (scale) on specific or (and) specialized assets, and their comparative efficiency to minimize bounded rationality and to control opportunism of counterparts.
    Keywords: agrarian governance, efficiency of agrarian organizations, new institutional and transaction costs economics
    JEL: D1 D2 D3 D4
    Date: 2005–11–06
  28. By: Hrabrin Bachev (Institute of Agricultural Economics, Sofia, Bulgaria)
    Abstract: The traditional approach for assessing farm sustainability (based on indicators of “productivity”, “profitability”, and “financial dependency”) fails to explain why there exist highly sustainable farms with different levels of “efficiency” such as low productive subsistent and part-time farming, non-for profit and cooperative enterprises, small commercial farms and large agro-corporations, etc. In this paper we adapt the New Institutional and Transaction Costs Economics perspective to agrarian sphere, and suggest a new framework for assessing sustainability of farms and farm structures. Firstly, an analysis is made on various approaches for defining sustainability of agricultural systems: as “an ideology”, as “a set of strategies”, as “the ability to fulfill a set of goals”, and as “ability to continue”. The “problem of sustainability” in the economic model (mainly associated with “negative externalities”, “tragedy of commons”, “jointness of farm production”) is also presented, and the “institutional” solutions of that problem discussed. Second, we prove that analysis of institutions and transacting costs is important for proper understanding the farms sustainability. Institutional environment is the crucial factor, which determines the restrictions and costs of farm activities, and eventually - the level of sustainability of different farm organizations. In the specific institutional setting, agrarian agents use (or develop) a great variety of effective (cost economizing) market and non-market modes for governing of their exchanges. Therefore, studying the farm as a governance (rather than production) structure is the key for understanding the farm efficiency and sustainability. Third, we define sustainability of farm as a state when it manages all transactions in the most economical way – that is the situation when there exist no transaction, which could be carried out with net benefit. When a farm experiences high costs and difficulties meeting institutional restrictions and carrying out transactions, comparing to other feasible modes, it will be unsustainable. That is because there will be strong incentives for exploring the existing potential (adapting to sustainable state) through reduction or enlargement of farm size, or via reorganization or liquidation of the farm. Thus the farm potential for adaptation to changing (market, institutional, technological etc.) environment is to be the main indicator for farm sustainability. Furthermore, the most effective form for organization of farm transactions will depend on individuals’ characteristics (preferences, entrepreneurial abilities, risk aversion etc.) and specific attributes of each transaction (uncertainty, frequency, assets specificity, and appropriability). Consequently, effective farms of different type and size could persist (sustain) in agriculture. Finally, we develop a principle matrix with the effective modes for governing of agrarian sustainability. Discrete structural analysis is used to define the transactions for which market, contract, and integral forms are efficient (sustainable). We also determine the situation(s), where there is strong need for a third-party public involvement in agrarian sphere - that is for transactions with low appropriablity, and high uncertainty and asset specificity. In later case, there are no sustainable market and private modes to organize such transactions effectively (e.g. supply of environmental goods). Next, we specify the spectrum of possible public forms for intervention in market and private transactions - assistance, regulation, hybrid and in-house organization, international cooperation, property rights and institutional modernization. The comparative efficiency of feasible modes for public involvement is to be assessed taking into account the overall costs and benefits. Sustainable agrarian development is compromised when both market and private forms fails, and no effective public intervention takes place.
    Keywords: assessing farm sustainability, governing of agrarian and farm sustainability, new institutional and transaction costs economics
    JEL: D1 D2 D3 D4
    Date: 2005–11–06
  29. By: Tomasz Brodzicki (University of Gdansk)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the existence of medium and long-run growth effects of economic integration within the European Union. We apply the system GMM methodology to estimate a number of dynamic panel data models. The study is undertaken for a panel sample consisting of 27 advanced economies and covering eight time periods between 1960 and 1999. We propose a number of new economic integration variables which presumably better reflect the complex nature of the economic integration process within the EU characterized by gradual widening and deepening. Our results point to an existence of a positive long-term relationship between economic integration and growth rates of real GDP per capita. At the same time we identify a negative medium-run effect on growth of accession into the EU. Both deepening and widening of the economic integration are found to be beneficial to long-term growth performance of Member States. The benefits associated with accession and membership in the EU are found to be asymmetrical.
    Keywords: economic growth, European economic integration, dynamic panel data models, system GMM estimator
    JEL: F15 O53 C23
    Date: 2005–05–24
  30. By: Thierry Pairault (CECMC - Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine - [CNRS : UMR8561] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales])
    Abstract: La question des droits patrimoniaux relatifs à la propriété et du droit de propriété en Chine dans le contexte de la réforme du secteur d'État est l'objet de cette étude. Afin d'assumer l'héritage du système d'appropriation, les dirigeants chinois ont été régulièrement confrontés à la nécessité de clarifier ces droits patrimoniaux. Une telle clarification est particulièrement cruciale pour les entreprises d'État dont le statut est étroitement lié à la légitimité d'un « socialisme à la chinoise ». Aux termes de la onstitution, « l'État maintient la propriété publique comme élément principal dans un système économique où plusieurs modes d'appropriation se développent ensemble ». Une telle diversité d'intérêts divergents suppose une mutation des droits patrimoniaux et des obligations du secteur d'État. La restructuration des entreprises d'État doit-elle être interprétée comme leur privatisation ? Dans quelle mesure la clarification des droits patrimoniaux conduit-elle inévitablement à une redistribution du droit de propriété ?
    Keywords: Chine;droit de propriété;droits patrimoniaux;entreprises d'État
    Date: 2006–05–25
  31. By: Martin T.W. Rosenfeld; Peter Franz; Gerhard Heimpold
    Abstract: Throughout the literature in regional economics, most authors agree that spatially concentrated industrial activities are important for regional economic growth. Agglomeration economies, which may occur in the context of spatial concentration and “clusters“, may lead to lower costs of production and may reduce transaction costs of all kind, e. g. information costs, including the costs for R&D activities. There is much less agreement on (and: knowledge about) the empirical identification of existing spatially concentrated economic activities in the real world. For the last decade, the discussion on spatial concentration has been dominated by praising the benefits of economic “clusters“. Many case studies on regions with economic “clusters“ are describing how the mechanisms of these specific “clusters“ work. But there have been only a few attempts, so far, to look at a greater region or even at an economy as a whole, in order to find out – with empirical data which allow to compare between the sub-regions – for all sub-regions what their specific „competences“ in the field of spatially concentrated industrial activities are and whether there is a typical spatial pattern of concentrated industrial activities. The proposed paper is presenting the empirical results of a study on spatially concentrated industries in the Eastern part of Germany, where the current regional policy scheme, which de facto follows the “watering can principle”, is under debate. In the first part of the paper, the possible dimensions and the “ingredients” of economic “clusters“ and industrial agglomerations will be discussed. One important dimension is the existence of intra-regional value-added chains for certain products. But, at the moment, it is not possible to identify such value-added chains by using existing empirical data at the more aggregated levels of an economy. Therefore, our study and the paper are concentrating on just three main dimensions of economic “clusters” and industrial agglomerations: (1.) Particular high spatial concentrations of certain industries are identified (based on employment data by NACE 2 digit level) for all East German counties. (2.) The existence of business networks (and their main characteristics, e. g. industry classification) in the East German regions is discovered by a broad exploration of internet sources and an inquiry among regional development agencies. (3.) Spatially concentrated innovation activities are recorded for each region by using data on patent applications (by IPC classes). It will be discussed in the paper what is implicated with these three dimensions and their operationalization with empirical data. Finally, the findings from the first three steps of research are synthesized for showing how sectoral concentration, business networking and innovation competencies in the individual regions are overlapping. The findings reveal that spatially concentrated industries are mainly located in and around the largest East German cities in Saxony and Thuringia, and in Berlin and its hinterland. In contrast, a number of less densely populated, rural or former industrialized areas in the northern and central parts of East Germany have no or only some elements of spatially concentrated industries. The presented method for identifying spatially concentrated industries could be applied to other regions and economies for bringing more light into the debate on economic “clusters“. With regard to regional policy in East Germany, one may conclude from our findings that the present use of the “watering can principle” had not been able to stimulate economic agglomerations in economically weak peripheral regions. It could be a better strategy to support the existing “clusters” and industrial agglomerations.
    Date: 2005–08
  32. By: Thierry Pairault (CECMC - Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine - [CNRS : UMR8561] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales])
    Abstract: Histoire et analyse des pratiques tontinières chinoises en Chine et hors de Chine
    Keywords: Chine; microfinance;tontines;
    Date: 2006–05–25

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