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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Kristina Kittelmann; Marcel Tirpak; Rainer Schweickert; Lúcio Vinhas de Souza |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 1993–2004. For the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe, the results of our model show that the majority of crises in those countries can be explained by inconsistencies in the domestic policy mix and by the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals, as emphasized by first generation crises models, while for the CIS countries analysed, financial vulnerability type indicators were the most relevant, i.e., indicators connected with the second and third generation of crisis model better explain the vulnerability of these countries. Additionally, the set of indicators choosen by our model is rather heterogenous, supporting the superiority of a country-by-country approach. |
| Keywords: | EU, Central and Eastern Europe, CIS, early warning system, currency crisis, Markov switching |
| JEL: | F47 P20 C22 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1269&r=tra |
| By: | Rodrik, Dani |
| Abstract: | Much more than comparative advantage and free markets have been at play in shaping China's export success. Government policies have helped nurture domestic capabilities in consumer electronics and other advanced areas that would most likely not have developed in their absence. As a result, China has ended up with an export basket that is significantly more sophisticated than what would be normally expected for a country at its income level. This has been an important determinant of China's rapid growth. What matters for China's future growth is not the volume of exports, but whether China will continue to latch on to higher-income products over time. |
| Keywords: | development; economic growth |
| JEL: | F1 O4 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5484&r=tra |
| By: | J. David Brown Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, CEU Labor Project and IZA Bonn; John Earle (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, CEU Labor Project and IZA Bonn); Vladimir Gimpelson (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow and IZA Bonn); Rostislav Kapeliushnikov (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow); Hartmut Lehmann (University of Bologna, Heriot-Watt University, Labor Group EROC, Kiev School of Economics and IZA Bonn); Álmos Telegdy (CEU Labor Project, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Irina Vantu (CEU Labor Project); Ruxandra Visan (CEU Labor Project); Alexandru Voicu (City University of New York, Staten Island College and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper looks behind the standard, publicly available employment and unemployment statistics that studies of transition economy labor markets have typically relied upon. We analyze microdata on detailed labor force survey responses in Russia, Romania, and Estonia to measure nonstandard, boundary forms and alternative definitions of labor force status. Our estimates show that measured employment and unemployment rates are quite sensitive to definition, particularly in the treatment of household production (subsistence agriculture), unpaid family helpers, and discouraged workers, while the categories of part-time work and other forms of marginal attachment are still relatively unimportant. We find that tweaking the official definitions in apparently minor ways can produce alternative employment rates that are sharply higher in Russia but much lower in Romania and slightly lower in Estonia, and alternative unemployment rates that are sharply higher in Romania and moderately higher in Estonia and Russia. |
| Keywords: | alternative measures of unemployment and employment, transitional economies |
| JEL: | C81 J21 J64 P23 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1961&r=tra |
| By: | Johan F.M. Swinnen; Liesbeth Dries; Nivelin Noeva; Etleva Germenjia |
| Abstract: | The combination of transition and globalization since the early 1990s has caused dramatic changes in supply chains globally. This paper uses survey evidence from several Eastern European countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Russia) on how these forces affect the dairy sector. In many countries dairy farms are small family farms. Investments by foreign companies in processing and retailing and the opening to international markets have introduced higher standards, leading, in turn, to extensive contracting and vertical coordination in the dairy chain. In countries close to the EU the restructuring of the dairy chain was mostly driven by investments in dairy processing, while in countries further from the EU, and less advanced in transition, retail investments are playing a more important role in driving change throughout the dairy chain. There have been significant efficiency gains, and the vertical coordination had positive effects on farm investments and productivity, especially since the late 1990s. Evidence suggests that small dairy farms have generally benefited from the vertical coordination processes. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:16506&r=tra |
| By: | Ruperta Lichtenecker (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | China, das Reich der Mitte, ist mit schwerwiegenden Umweltproblemen konfrontiert die hohe Kosten verursachen. Mit der zunehmenden Anwendung der Umwelttechnik kann der Herausforderung diese Problemfelder zu beheben sinnvoll begegnet werden. Die Indikatoren Wirtschaftswachstum, notwendiger Schutz der natürlichen Ressourcen, externe Kosten, politische und institutionelle Faktoren prognostizieren einen stark wachsenden Absatzmarkt für Umwelttechnik in China. Um dieses Marktpotential tatsächlich auszuschöpfen ist es notwendig in China und in Österreich verschiedene Anforderungen zu erfüllen die in diesem Artikel erörtert werden. |
| JEL: | Q01 Q42 Q53 Q55 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2006_01&r=tra |
| By: | Olena Havrylchyk; Emilia Jurzyk |
| Abstract: | Using data for 265 banks in the Central and Eastern European Countries for the period of 1995-2003, this paper analyses the differences in profitability between domestic and foreign banks. We show that foreign banks, especially greenfield institutions, earn higher profits than domestic banks. However, this effect is acquired, rather than inherited, since there is evidence that foreign banks tend to take over less profitable institutions. Profits of foreign banks in the CEEC also exceed profits of their parent banks, explaining the reasons for their entry. Further, we study benefits and costs of foreign ownership by analyzing determinants of profitability for domestic, takeover, and greenfield banks. Profits of foreign banks are less affected by macroeconomic conditions in their host countries. However, greenfield banks are sensitive to the situation of their parent banks. Only domestic banks enjoy higher profits in more concentrated banking markets, whereas takeover banks suffer from diseconomies of scale due to the fact that they acquired large institutions. |
| Keywords: | Foreign banks, Bank profits, Multinational banking, Transition economies |
| JEL: | G15 G21 F36 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:16606&r=tra |
| By: | Qi Quan; Nancy Huyghebaert |
| Abstract: | Using data on 451 Chinese privatizations over the period 1994-2002, this paper empirically investigates the firm and stock market characteristics that determine the size of the portion of new shares sold to the general public and underpricing at SIP-time. We find that poor performance and financing constraints, reflected by a low profitability and high leverage, mainly drive public share allocation. Also, the government widens ownership to a larger extent in firms that receive substantial subsidies. By contrast, stock market returns pre-SIP and variables capturing the firm’s growth opportunities do not positively affect public share allocation. Yet, in firms with a low market-to-book ratio, the government is more likely to relinquish its majority stake at SIP-time. The determinants of underpricing further illustrate the uniqueness of SIPs compared to private-firm IPOs. Overall, there is little evidence that information asymmetries regarding firm value influence first-day returns whereas stock market conditions have an impact. After accounting for the endogeneity of the public share allocation decision, we find that the fraction of ownership divested is significantly positively related to underpricing. |
| Keywords: | privatization; motives for going public; government divestment; underpricing |
| JEL: | G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:16205&r=tra |
| By: | Christoph Bühler (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ewa Fratczak |
| Abstract: | - |
| Keywords: | Poland, fertility determinants, social capital |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2004–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-012&r=tra |
| By: | Charles Ka Yui Leung; Peiling Wei; Siu Kei Wong |
| Abstract: | Due to the relocation of manufacturing facilities from Hong Kong to Mainland China, it is widely believed that some vacant private factories have been used as offices in Hong Kong. Yet there is no direct and systematic evidence to support this speculation. In fact, according to MacGregor and Schwann (2003), industrial and commercial real estate shares some common features. Our research attempts to investigate empirically the price and volume relationship between industrial and commercial real estate, using both aggregate and disaggregate data from the industrial and commercial property markets in Hong Kong. The study was built on the observation that economic restructuring and geographical distance will affect the substitutability (and thus the correlation) of different types of property, and utilizes commonly used time series techniques for analysis. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | aggregation bias, geographical distance, industrial real estate, substitutability |
| JEL: | G12 L80 R30 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chk:cuhkdc:00018&r=tra |
| By: | Margarete C. Kulik (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | With the transition of the 1990s in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the demographic behavior of their populations has changed drastically. This paper focuses on Hungary where some of these developments like falling marriage rates were evident even before 1990. We examine the emergence of cohabitation as a first union and the stability of such relationships. Are they rather transformed into marriage or do they end in dissolution? How long do Hungarian woman stay in these unions? In addition to some descriptive statistics we apply event history analysis because this allows us to study the impact of individual-level characteristics on such choices. The data used is the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey collected around November 2001. The analysis shows that there are marked differences in behavior between periods and that factors like pregnancy or employment do influence the decision for cohabitation as well as its further development. |
| Keywords: | Hungary |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-031&r=tra |
| By: | Azeta Cungu; Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses econometrically the contribution of aid to output growth in a panel of twenty transition countries over nine years (1989-1997). The study finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between foreign aid and growth. A second result is that the positive effect of aid seems to be stronger when associated with economic liberalisation. The above findings are important, particularly in light of recent scepticism on the role of aid on developing country economic growth and the recent declining trend in aid commitments from industrialized countries. |
| Keywords: | economic transition, empirical study, foreign aid, growth, reform. |
| JEL: | C23 F35 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:12803&r=tra |
| By: | Olivier Brunet; Ronny Nilsson |
| Abstract: | The OECD developed a System of Composite Leading indicators for its Member countries in the early 1980's based on the 'growth cycle' approach. Today the OECD compiles composite leading indicators (CLIs) for 23 of its 30 Member countries and it is envisaged to expand country coverage to include all Member countries and the major six OECD non-member economies (NMEs) monitored by the organization in the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators. The importance of the six major NMEs was considered the first priority and a workshop with participants from the six major NMEs was held at the OECD in Paris in April 2005 to discuss an initial OECD selection of potential leading indicators for the six major NMEs and national suggestions for alternative and/or additional potential leading indicators for calculation of country specific composite leading indicators. The outcomes of this meeting and followup activities undertaken by the OECD in co-operation with the participating national agencies are reflected in the results presented in this final version of the document. The OECD indicator system uses univariate analysis to estimate trend and cycles individually for each component series and then a composite indicator is obtained by aggregation of the resulting de-trended components. Today, statistical techniques based on alternative univariate methods and multivariate analysis are increasingly used in cyclical analysis and some of these techniques are used in this study to supplement the current OECD approach in the selection of leading components and the construction of composite indicators. L’OCDE a développé un système d’indicateurs composites avancés pour ses pays membres au début des années 80 basé sur les "cycles de croissance". Aujourd’hui, l’OCDE calcule les indicateurs composites avancés pour 23 des 30 pays membres et envisage d’étendre la couverture du système des indicateurs composites avancés à tous les pays membres ainsi qu’aux six principales économies non membres suivies par l’Organisation. L’importance des six principales économies non membres est considérée comme prioritaire et un séminaire regroupant ces six principales économies non membres fut organisé au siège de l’OCDE à Paris en avril 2005 afin de discuter d’une première sélection par l’OCDE d’indicateurs avancés potentiels pour les six principales économies non membres et discuter des suggestions des pays pour des indicateurs avancés potentiels alternatifs et/ou supplémentaires pour le calcul des indicateurs composites avancés spécifiques aux pays. Les résultats de cette réunion et les futures activités entreprises par l’OCDE en collaboration avec les agences nationales participantes sont décrits dans la version finale de ce document. Le système des indicateurs composites avancés de l’OCDE utilise une analyse univariée afin d’estimer la tendance et les cycles individuellement pour chaque série composante et ensuite un indicateur composite est obtenu par aggrégation des composantes sans tendance. Aujourd’hui, les techniques statistiques basées sur d’autres méthodes d’analyse univariée ainsi que multivariée sont de plus en plus utilisées en analyse cyclique et certaines de ces techniques sont utilisées dans l’étude afin de compléter l’approche courante de l’OCDE dans la sélection des composantes avancées et dans la construction des indicateurs composites. |
| Date: | 2006–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2006/1-en&r=tra |
| By: | Sophie Claeys (Department of Financial Economics and CERISE, Ghent University, W. Wilsonplein 5D, B-9000 Ghent, Tel.: +32-9-264 34 91, Fax.: +32-9-264 89 95. sophie.claeys@ugent.be); Christa Hainz (Department of Economics, University of Munich, Akademiestr. 1/III, 80799 Munich, Tel.: +49-89-2180 3232, Fax.: +49-89-2180 2767. christa.hainz@lrz.uni-muenchen.de) |
| Abstract: | Credit markets in many Eastern European countries are now dominated by foreign-owned banks. We analyze the development for foreign ownership and its impact on lending rate in ten Eastern European countries between 1995 and 2003. Currently, the majority of loans from foreign banks is granted by acquired banks. The presence of foreign acquired banks as measured by their relative number among the banks in our dataset increased somewhat slower than that of foreign de novo banks. However, since market entry through acquisition allows acquiring a credit portfolio and a customer base, acquired banks were able to expand their market share much faster than the foreign de novo banks. Our results also show that the interest rate decreased after foreign bank entry. Moreover, while the reduction in interest rates of domestic banks is more pronounced in the case of foreign entry through a de novo investment, foreign de novo banks charge higher interest rates than foreign acquired banks. |
| Keywords: | SME, Banking, Foreign Entry, Mode of Entry, Interest Rate |
| JEL: | D4 G21 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trf:wpaper:95&r=tra |
| By: | Alessia Amighini; Stefano Chiarlone |
| Abstract: | Central and Eastern European Countries have increased the weight of international trade on their GDP and the role of Foreign Direct Investment. Some are key final market for EU companies. Their integration, though, has been triggered by outsourcing and offshoring. Data show that their industrial structure is evolving towards new specialisation in the backward phase of the production process. Central European countries’ competitiveness in traditional clothing and fashion sectors is decreasing, while Eastern countries are improving. The comparative advantage in some advanced sectors, instead, are on the rise. This happen, mainly, in the “parts and intermediates” categories both as for import and as for export. Such division of labour suggest that Central and Eastern European countries are complementary to EU competitiveness. They contribute to keep costs under control. This may harm Italian firms’ competitiveness if the don’t follow the same practices as other companies. Finally, the Italian firms engaged in assemblying activities without own brands might be hit by such practices. |
| Date: | 2005–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liu:liucec:182&r=tra |
| By: | Qiang Li (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The present study investigates the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and mortality risk, using a large sample (N=7852) from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (age range 80-105) conducted in 2000 and 2002. Initially, we intended to contribute to the understanding of system relations between SWB, mortality risk, and unobserved heterogeneity by treating SWB as an endogenous variable, using a multi-process model. However, failure to identify unobserved heterogeneity in the mortality equation prevents us from employing this model. Given this limitation, the study examines three issues. First, we argue that the mortality model with duration dependency on the age of the study subjects is specified and that the model with duration dependency on time since the interview is misspecified. Second, we address problems associated with the identification of unobserved heterogeneity in the mortality equation. Third, we examine the association between SWB and mortality risk in the Chinese oldest old as well as the risk pattern by gender, without considering unobserved heterogeneity. We find that SWB is not a significant predictor of mortality risk when we control for socio-demographic characteristics and health status. Health plays a very important role in the relationship between SWB and mortality risk in the oldest old. Gender differences in the predictive pattern of SWB on this risk are negligible in the sample. |
| Keywords: | China, mortality |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-011&r=tra |
| By: | Elizabeth Brainerd (Williams College, CEPR, WDI and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Both Western and Soviet estimates of GNP growth in the USSR indicate that GNP per capita grew in every decade - sometimes rapidly - from 1928 to 1985. While this measure suggests that the standard of living improved in the USSR throughout this period, it is unclear whether this economic growth translated into improved well-being for the population as a whole. This paper uses previously unpublished archival data on infant mortality and anthropometric studies of children conducted across the Soviet Union to reassess the standard of living in the USSR using these alternative measures of well-being. In the prewar period these data indicate a population extremely small in stature and sensitive to the political and economic upheavals visited upon the country by Soviet leaders and outside forces. Remarkably large and rapid improvements in infant mortality, birth weight, child height and adult stature were recorded from approximately 1940 to the late 1960s. While this period of physical growth was followed by stagnation in heights and an increase in adult male mortality, it appears that the Soviet Union avoided the sustained declines in stature that occurred in the United States and United Kingdom during industrialization in those countries. |
| Keywords: | Soviet Union, Russia, health, standard of living |
| JEL: | P23 P36 N34 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1958&r=tra |
| By: | Hill Kulu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Previous research has proposed four competing views on an individual’s fertility following a move from one social context to another. Each view has received support but has also been challenged by literature. This study contributes to the existing discussion on fertility by providing an analysis of the effects of internal migration on the fertility of post-war Austrian and Polish female cohorts. We base our study on retrospective event-history data and apply intensity regression to both single and simultaneous equations. Our analysis shows, first, that natives in urban areas in general and in the large cities in particular have lower fertility compared to non-migrants in rural areas, both in Austria and Poland. Second, it reveals that people who move from one place to another adopt the fertility behaviour that is dominant at destination. Third, we observe an elevated first birth risk for women who move because of union formation, and a short-term postponement of childbearing for those who settle in a large city. Our country comparison shows some differences in fertility variation across settlements, but, overall, the results are quite similar, despite the different post-war societal context of two countries. |
| Keywords: | Austria, Poland, event history analysis, fertility, internal migration |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-022&r=tra |
| By: | José Manuel Martins Caetano (Department of Economics, University of Évora); Aurora Galego (Department of Economics, University of Évora) |
| Abstract: | Most trade between the European Union (EU) and the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) is inter-industrial in nature, based on comparative advantages. However, recent studies have uncovered structural changes in the nature of trade, the most unexpected being the rapid increase in Intra-industry trade (IIT). In this paper we characterise the dynamics of the CEEC-EU trade using several methodologies that evaluate the type of trade and price-quality ranges. The analysis confirms that there was a significant decline in inter-industrial trade and an increasing specialisation in vertical IIT. Moreover, we found substantial differences in the unit values of exported and imported goods, which suggest that the increasing weight of IIT in the EU-CEEC trade does not result from the factorial contents convergence of the traded goods. Therefore, these trends indicate the emergence of a new division of labour in the enlarged EU. Using a panel data approach we also identify the determinants of vertical and horizontal IIT. The results allow us to conclude that there are some differences in the determinants of these types of trade, although both seem to have a statistically significant relationship with country’s size and Foreign Direct Investment flows. |
| Keywords: | Intra-industry Trade, European Union enlargement, panel data |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:evo:wpecon:2_2006&r=tra |
| By: | Júlia Lendvai (University of Namur, Economics Department.) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates traditional and New Phillips curves for Hungary over the sample period 1995Q1 to 2004Q1. It presents the first structural Phillips curve estimations for a New EU Member State economy. We find that Hungarian inflation dynamics can be reasonably well described by a standard New Hybrid Phillips curve and by its open economy extension specifying imported goods as intermediate production goods. Our estimation results indicate that Hungarian inflation is significantly more inertial than Euro area inflation. Hungarian inflation inertia appears to be the result of pervasive backward looking price setting behaviour, while prices seem to be reset more frequently than in the Euro area. At the same time, Hungarian inflation dynamics is comparable to that of countries characterized by a relatively high average inflation rate. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips curve, Inflation dynamics, Open economy. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:opaper:2005/46&r=tra |
| By: | Martin Spielauer (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dora Kostova; Tatyana Kotzeva; Vetka Jekova; Kremena Borissova |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines the concept and content of the Contextual Database of the international Generations and Gender Program and gives an overview of the context of demographic behavior in Bulgaria. The Contextual Database provides an instrument that together with the Generations and Gender Survey allows studying how differences in context shape demographic processes. The database offers the opportunity to analyze in a comparative way the interaction between the micro and macro dimension. Bulgaria is among the first countries fielding the Generations and Gender Survey and that is engaged in contextual data collection within this comparative framework. While both micro- and contextual data for Bulgaria will become available in the course of the year 2005, we present in this paper a text contribution that provides an overview of the Bulgarian context and introduces the list of variables that make up the database. |
| Keywords: | Bulgaria, data collection |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2005–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-006&r=tra |
| By: | Christoph Bühler (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dimiter Philipov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Interpersonal relationships of support have been found to be an important factor in individual fertility intentions in Central and Eastern European countries. The foundations of this positive influence have not been well explored to date, however. We present a theoretical discussion on exchange-based social capital and argue that processes of interpersonal exchange are relevant for reproductive decisions when they provide access to resources that help to reduce the costs of having children and stabilize the economic situation of a household. Data from 2002 on the fertility intentions of 2,016 Bulgarian women support our argument. The availability of important and substantive resources has a positive impact on women’s intentions to have a second or third child and their timing of having a first or second child. The embededness in kin-based exchange systems of indirect reciprocity shows similar positive effects and highlights especially the significance of parents as a source of intergenerational transfers and support. |
| Keywords: | Bulgaria, fertility determinants, social capital |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-016&r=tra |
| By: | Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Rembrandt D. Scholz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | A systematic comparison of the Human Mortality Database and official estimates of populations aged 80+ is presented. We consider statistical series for East and West Germany and also series for Denmark, England and Wales, France, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland. The Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) methodology re-lies on the methods of extinct and almost extinct generations. HMD estimates are precise if the quality of death data is high and the migration among the elderly is negligible. The comparisons between the HMD and the official populations are not fully appropriate for the 1990s since the HMD calculations are related to official population estimates. A significant overestimation of the male population aged 80+ and especially 90+ between the censuses of 1970 and 1987 was found in West Germany. The relative surplus of men aged 90+ increased from 5 to 20 percent, which expressed in absolute numbers indicates an increase from 2 to 10 thousand. In 1971-1987 the of-ficial death rates have fallen dramatically to implausibly low values. In 1987-88 death rates based on the official populations suddenly jumped to the HMD death rates due to the census re-estimation. In the 1990s an accelerated decrease in male death rates has resumed. For other coun-tries, the relative and absolute deviations from the HMD estimates were especially high in Rus-sia, Hungary, and England and Wales. Regression analysis reveals common factors of the rela-tive deviation from the HMD populations. The deviation tends to decrease with time, increase with age, be higher during inter-census periods than in census years, and to decrease after the introduction of population registers. (Key words: aging; elderly; population estimates; quality of statistics) |
| Keywords: | ageing |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-010&r=tra |
| By: | Holger Von der Lippe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Gunnar Andersson (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with psychological determinants of fertility differentials in East Germany in the 1990s. We test the explanatory and statistical power of psychological covariates in an event-history model of first-birth intensities together with other covariates. We show that different psychological covariates (wishes and fears, coping-styles, etc.) are important determinants of the transition to parenthood. A crucial finding is the existence of strong sex differentials in such impacts. |
| Keywords: | Germany (new Länder), fertility determinants, sex differentials, social psychology |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2005–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-008&r=tra |
| By: | Johannes Huinink; Michaela Kreyenfeld (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The birth cohort 1971 entered transition to adulthood at the onset of societal transformation in East Germany. Their marriage and fertility behavior therefore was expected to be severely affected by the upheavals following unification. And indeed, compared to their predecessors, there is a drastic increase in the age at marriage, age at first birth and a decline in second birth risks. In this paper, we adopt a life course perspective to investigate the factors that have contributed to the postponement of family formation after unification. The empirical analysis suggests that highly educated women in particular are postponing fertility. Women with a relatively low education, by contrast, are accelerating family formation. Contrary to standard views on East German fertility, we do not find evidence for the hypothesis that unemployment generally lead to a postponement of first birth. |
| Keywords: | Germany, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2004–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-013&r=tra |