nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2005‒04‒24
fifteen papers chosen by
Toño Sanchez
Universitat de Valencia

  1. Forecasting China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Provincial Approach By Maximilian Auffhammer; Richard Carson; Teresa Garin-Munoz
  2. Government Policy Effects on Urban and Rural Income Inequality By Ximing Wu; Jeffrey Perloff; Amos Golan
  3. China's Income Distribution over Time: Reasons for Rising Inequality By Ximing Wu; Jeffrey Perloff
  4. Changing Composition of Human Capital: The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland By Byeongju Jeong; Michal Kejak; Viatcheslav Vinogradov
  5. All in the Family: A Dynasty Approach to Household Migration Evidence from the 19th Century Austro-Hungarian Empire By Alexander Klein
  6. Inflation Expectations in the Czech Interbank Market By Martin Fukac
  7. Fiscal Consequences of Monetary Integration within the Common Economic Area: the Case of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia By Ainura Uzagalieva
  8. What Explains Differences in Efficiency Across Russian Banks? By Styrin Konstantin
  9. Application of Technological Control Measures on Vehicle Pollution: A Cost-Benefit Analysis in China By Paulo Augusto Nunes; Qiang Wu
  10. Should Latin America Fear China? By Eduardo A. Lora
  11. Learning and Dynamic Comparative Advantage: Lessons from Austria's Postwar Pattern of Growth for Eastern Europe By Dalia, Marin
  12. Spatial Price Differences in China: Estimates and Implications By Loren BRANDT; Carsten A HOLZ
  13. New Capital Estimates for China By Carsten A. Holz
  14. China's Reform Period Economic Growth: Why Angus Maddison Got It Wrong and What That Means By Carsten A. Holz
  15. Railroad Restructuring in Russia and Central and Eastern Europe: One Solution for All Problems?* By Russell Pittman; Sergei Guriev; Guido Friebel; Anna Tomova; Elizaveta Cheviakhova

  1. By: Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley); Richard Carson (University of California, San Diego); Teresa Garin-Munoz (UNCED - Madrid)
    Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, climate change,
    Date: 2004–02–03
  2. By: Ximing Wu (University of Guelph); Jeffrey Perloff (University of California, Berkeley, and Giannini Foundation); Amos Golan (American University)
    Keywords: income distribution, inequality, public policy, welfare,
    Date: 2004–02–01
  3. By: Ximing Wu (University of Guelph); Jeffrey Perloff (University of California, Berkeley, and Giannini Foundation)
    Abstract: We use a new method to estimate China's income distributions using publicly available interval summary statistics from China's largest national household survey. We examine rural, urban, and overall income distributions for each year from 1985-2001. By estimating the entire distributions, we can show how the distributions change directly as well as examine trends in traditional welfare indices such as the Gini. We find that inequality has increased substantially in both rural and urban areas. Using an inter-temporal decomposition of aggregate inequality, we determine that increases in inequality within the rural and urban sectors and the growing gap in rural and urban incomes have been equally responsible for the growth in overall inequality over the last two decades. However, the rural-urban income gap has played an increasingly important role in recent years. In contrast, only the growth of inequality within rural and urban areas is responsible for the increase in inequality in the United States, where the overall inequality is close to that of China. We also show that urban consumption inequality (which may be a better indicator of economic well-being than income inequality) rose considerably.
    Keywords: economic development, income distribution,
    Date: 2004–02–01
  4. By: Byeongju Jeong; Michal Kejak; Viatcheslav Vinogradov
    Abstract: We show that the business education/occupations have expanded and that the technical education/occupations have contracted in the Czech Republic and Poland since 1990. We interpret these changes as an adjustment necessary for their transition to a market economy. We do not find the same pattern in Hungary, which we attribute to its earlier timing of transition. We construct an aggregate model in which labor reallocates in response to changing demand structure. When calibrated to the Czech and Polish data, the model generates a large movement of workers with technical education and experience into business occupations in the early 1990s. The discounted sum of output loss due to the gap between the demand structure and the composition of existing human capital amounts to 20 to 40 percent of 1990 GDP.
    Keywords: Human capital; Composition; Occupation; Education; Mobility; Transition.
    JEL: J31 J62 P23 E13
    Date: 2005–01
  5. By: Alexander Klein
    Abstract: This paper deals with the rural-urban migration of families in the last decades of the 19th century in one of the most developed regions of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy – the Pilsen region. The analysis indicates that the household head’s expected real rural-urban wage gap was not the main factor behind migration. Instead, the observed behavior is consistent with families maximizing a dynastic utility function such that it was the future prospects of children which triggered migration. The results are not based on tracing of families in time but rely on identifying a control group of stayers. Specifically, I compare the structure of migrant families at the time of arrival to an urban area with that of families who stayed in the hinterlands and to decipher migration motifs.
    Date: 2005–03
  6. By: Martin Fukac
    Abstract: Monthly data on the inflation expectations of financial analysts in the Czech Republic exhibit a tendency for permanent bias and ineffectiveness which violates the rational expectations hypothesis assumed in macroeconomic models. This paper asks whether the surveyed data include any monetary-policy relevant information, in other words, whether the surveyed expectations correspond to the true market expectations, and hence should be reflected in macro models of the Czech economy instead of the rational expectations hypothesis. Using a methodology based on a simple Fisher rule, it is found that the difference between the surveyed and market expectations is not statistically significant.
    Keywords: Inflation expectations, Nominal interest rate, Fisher rule.
    JEL: C52 E43 E44
    Date: 2005–03
  7. By: Ainura Uzagalieva
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the possible impact of planned monetary integration on public sector revenues from seigniorage in three countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Using the concept of total gross seigniorage, we investigate the main sources and uses of the central bank revenues in these countries. Special attention is given to the role of seigniorage revenues in financing public sector expenditures. Amounts of yearly transfers from central banks to the state budget in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia are evaluated, and the size of potential gains and looses in seigniorage revenues under different scenarios of monetary integration are estimated.
    Keywords: Seigniorage, Monetary integration, Transition economies.
    JEL: E
    Date: 2005–04
  8. By: Styrin Konstantin
    Abstract: A bank can be viewed as a firm that uses deposits as inputs to “produce” loans and investments. If a manager does all her best, the bank affords its production possibilities frontier. However, the manager’s incentives may not go in-line with those of the bank’s owners, and this leads to X-inefficiency. The purpose of the research is two-fold. First, we measure the X-inefficiency of Russian banks econometrically using a quarterly panel of financial statements of all Russian banks for the period 1998-2002. Second, we explain the variation in X-inefficiency among Russian banks with a number of determinants such as the diversification of ownership structure, the type of ownership, and the bank size. Our findings suggest inter alia that regulatory authorities should be cautios in interpreting raw X-inefficiency scores: a low level of X-inefficiency may be due to the lack of intermediation rather that due an efficient intermediation.
    Keywords: Russia, Russian banks
    Date: 2005–04–21
  9. By: Paulo Augusto Nunes (University Ca' Foscari of Venice); Qiang Wu (Bologna Center, SAIS and Johns Hopkins University)
    Abstract: For the past two decades, China has experienced strong, continuous economic growth. At the same time, the number of motor vehicles in China has rapidly increased. As a direct result of such a phenomenon, China has been registering significant increases in air pollution. In spite of recent advances in air pollution control, it remains a serious problem for China’s major cities, and constitutes an important issue in the agenda of its policy makers. The object of this paper is to explore the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to evaluate and rank alternative policy scenarios regarding the control of air pollution emitted by motor vehicles. The empirical analysis carried out relates specifically to the Chinese context, over a twenty year period, from 2001 to 2020, and focuses on emission changes of the following three principal pollutants: CO, HC and NOx.
    Keywords: Vehicle, Pollution, CO, HC, NOx, Scenario, Standard, Cost, Benefit, China
    JEL: O33 O53
    Date: 2005–01
  10. By: Eduardo A. Lora (Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper compares growth conditions in China and Latin America to assess fears that China will displace Latin America in the coming decades. China’s strengths include the size of the economy, macroeconomic stability, abundant low-cost labor, the rapid expansion of physical infrastructure, and the ability to innovate. China’s weaknesses, stemming from insufficient separation between market and State, include poor corporate governance, a fragile financial system and misallocation of savings. Both regions share important weaknesses: the rule of law is weak, corruption endemic and education is poor and very poorly distributed
    Keywords: China, Latin America, economic growth, investment climate
    JEL: E66 O57 P52
    Date: 2004–10
  11. By: Dalia, Marin
    Abstract: This paper looks at Austria's pattern of development and its lessons for Eastern Europe. Austria's development path is characterized by two features. In the post-war era Austria was among the countries with the fastest convergence rate. At the same time Austria's movement up the technological ladder was slow compared to other European countries. The paper uses insights from recent dynamic theories of trade to explain these two stylized facts. It is argued that resource endowments, international knowledge spillovers, learning, and government policy have contributed to Austria's post war growth and the evolution of its pattern of trade over time. The paper looks at two lessons for Eastern Europe. First, Austria as a possible economic case for a gradual approach to economic reform. Second, in light of the Austrian experience a recent industrial and trade policy proposal for Eastern Europe is discussed.
    JEL: P2 O3 O1 F1
  12. By: Loren BRANDT (University of Toronto); Carsten A HOLZ (Hong Kong University of Science & Technology)
    Abstract: Prices differ across space: from province to province, from rural (or urban) areas in one province to rural (or urban) areas in another province, and from rural to urban areas within one province. Systematic differences in prices across a range of goods and services in different localities imply regional differences in the costs of living. If high- income provinces also have high costs of living, and low-income provinces have low costs of living, the use of nominal income measures in explaining such economic outcomes as inequality can lead to misinterpretations. Income should be adjusted for costs of living. We are interested in the sign and magnitude of the adjustments needed, their changes over time, and their impact on economic outcomes in China. In this article, we construct a set of (rural, urban, total) provincial- level spatial price deflators for the years 1984-2002 that can be used to obtain provincial-level income measures adjusted for purchasing power. We provide illustrations of the significant effect of ignoring spatial price differences in the analysis of China's economy.
    JEL: O18 D63 D3
    Date: 2005–04–21
  13. By: Carsten A. Holz (Hong Kong University of Science & Technology)
    Abstract: Data on physical capital are an indispensable part of economic growth and efficiency studies. In the case of China, fixed asset time series are usually derived either by aggregating gross fixed capital formation data over time, net of depreciation, or by correcting the limited official fixed asset data available. These procedures, to varying degrees, ignore that (i) gross fixed capital formation does not equal investment, (ii) investment does not equal the value of fixed assets newly created through investment, (iii) depreciation is an accounting measure that has no impact on changes in the production capacity of fixed assets, (iv) official fixed asset data, where available, incorporate significant revaluations in the 1990s, and (v) the variable 'net fixed assets,' frequently used in the literature, is an inappropriate measure of fixed assets for the purpose of growth or efficiency studies. This paper derives economy-wide fixed asset values for 1954-2002, correcting for these shortcomings. It also uses the so far unexplored method of combining economy-wide depreciation data (in the income approach to the calculation of gross domestic product) with an economy-wide depreciation rate to directly yield economy-wide fixed assets. The fixed asset time series derived here are contrasted with each other as well as with those presented in the literature. The reliability of the different series is evaluated, leading to the recommendation of a specific choice of fixed asset time series.
    Keywords: Capital, fixed assets, investment, national income accounting, production function estimations, measurement of economic growth, Chinese statistics
    JEL: C80 D24 O47 P23 P24
    Date: 2005–04–21
  14. By: Carsten A. Holz (Hong Kong University of Science & Technology)
    Abstract: China's economic growth statistics of the late 1990s have repeatedly been questioned. Angus Maddison in a 1998 OECD study goes further in that he revised China's official average annual real growth rate for the first seventeen years of economic reform, 1978 through 1995, downward by 2.39 percentage points per year. His study is the most thorough criticism of Chinese official statistics to date, and the one with the largest impact on the data. By 1995, the revisions imply 150% less output, in 1978 terms, than the official data do. Angus Maddison's revisions were subsequently incorporated into the Penn World Tables; the findings of countless cross-country studies are therefore affected by Angus Maddison's growth estimates for China. This paper examines Angus Maddison's revisions to official data and finds them invalid. Angus Maddison's growth estimates for China in the reform period constitute no alternative to the official data.
    JEL: O4 P27 O53 C82
    Date: 2005–04–21
  15. By: Russell Pittman (Antitrust Division, US Department of Justice); Sergei Guriev (New Economic School); Guido Friebel (University of Toulouse); Anna Tomova (University of Zilina); Elizaveta Cheviakhova (Boston College)
    Abstract: Railways restructuring takes place under very different circumstances and with very different goals in Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and Russia. Observed improvements in productivity associated with vertical access and vertical separation in Western Europe are not certain to be replicated following similar restructuring in transition economies, especially if one takes account of the much higher shadow price on government subsidies in the latter. This paper describes in detail the current and proposed reforms in the railways of Central and Eastern Europe and Russia, analyzes the likely outcomes of reforms in the special economic, regulatory, and legal environments of these countries, and presents an alternative proposal for restructuring in Russia.
    Keywords: railway, restructuring, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, transition, vertical separation
    JEL: L
    Date: 2005–04–20

This nep-tra issue is ©2005 by Toño Sanchez. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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