|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Elena Kondratyeva |
| Abstract: | This project utilizes panel data for 70 coal enterprises of Kuzbas region that were fully established and operated continuously between 1996 and 1998, and finds empirical evidence that negative supply shocks, liquidity problems in the region, efficiency of coal enterprises, and specific features of external opportunities in labor markets influence the occurrences of wage arrears. This work draws several major conclusions for Kuzbas region: (1) wage arrears have negative relation to demand for the output of the enterprise and are sensitive to efficiency of the enterprise, which is measured through profit/loss variable; (2) high regional average for wage arrears increases the probability that wage underpayments in a particular enterprise in this region have chronic nature; (3) the firms making a decision to withhold wages are taking into account the volume of sales and wage levels in the enterprise in previous periods. Also the form of ownership exerts the influence on the decision delay payments. |
| Keywords: | Russia, coal enterprises, upply shocks, liquidity, efficiency, labor markets |
| JEL: | J00 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-058e&r=tra |
| By: | Marina Malyutina; Svetlana Parilova |
| Abstract: | More than half of all Russian banks have gone bankrupt since the beginning of commercial banking in Russia ten years ago. It is poor macroeconomic environment that is usually blamed for banking crises. However we think that excessive risk-taking by banks themselves contributed a lot to their troubles. We model the interaction between a bank and a regulator as a dynamic game in which the regulator lacks complete information on the bank's behavior. A weak regulatory framework creates incentives for banks to take on excessive risks, while high discount rates lead to little attention being paid to banks’ reputation. We intend to test our model using an extensive data set on more than 1500 banks during 1998–1999. Possible policy implications of the project include recommendations on improving prudential regulation and creating incentives for more prudent behavior by banks. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-073e&r=tra |
| By: | Konstantin Kozlov; Daniil Manaenkov |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to study the impact of export operations of firms with foreign participation on the export activities of domestic enterprises. Analysis of panel data covers firm-level exports as well as firm export performance on the level of individual commodity. Our research tests for the presence of industrial, regional and commodity-specific spillover effects. The results of the analysis show that spillover effects from foreign affiliate and joint venture exporters on the industry level are negative. On the regional level results are ambiguous. Higher education in a region amplifies any positive effects. Strong support is also found for the existence of positive commodity-specific spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Russia, multinational firms; international business, firm behavior |
| JEL: | F23 D21 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-081e&r=tra |
| By: | Irina Slinko |
| Abstract: | What is the link between the fiscal decentralization, inequality among municipalities within a region, and Russian regions' welfare? Despite the conventional wisdom that fiscal decentralization is beneficial, the author suggests that the poor Russian regions do not always gain from decentralization. The author also suggests that a low initial capital endowment and long-term credit market imperfections could lead to the situation when fiscal decentralization fosters inequality within a region which, in turn, could slow down the overall regional growth. The analysis is conducted using an extensive panel dataset of Russian municipalities |
| JEL: | H71 H72 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-082e&r=tra |
| By: | Andrey Shinkevich |
| Abstract: | This project aims to (1) explain the forces that lead to dollarization in Russia, (2) analyze the cost and benefits of dollarization, (3) design a policy aimed at reducing dollarization, and (4) predict the consequences of making dollarization official. |
| Date: | 2002–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-087e&r=tra |
| By: | Alexey Savvateev |
| Abstract: | The author models the interaction between the “Center”, represented by inspectors, and free riders in local trains (“hares” in the Russian slang). In order to characterize the optimal deterring strategy of the Center, one must look into the nature the interaction among parties in this game. After accomplishing this task, the author considers a more general class of phenomena that are intimately related to the one just described. Such phenomena will be analyzed in the framework of a “Center-offenders” model (a special case of the “Crime and Punishment” problem). The appropriate solution concept may be called a “natural Stackelberg solution”. |
| JEL: | K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-103e&r=tra |
| By: | Konstantin Sonin |
| Abstract: | When the goods are to be publicly tendered off and it is the task of the tender officials to determine some specific characteristics of the good, their privileged status allows them to manipulate the results of the tender. In particular, if the officials are interested in getting side-transfers from bidders instead of revenue maximization, they may choose a particular pattern of characteristics to favor some particular bidder. These side transfers (bribes) may potentially become very large, especially when bidders' preferences differ substantially. In Russia and some other transition economies that have experienced a rapid privatization with vast and heterogeneous assets being privatized, this problem is particularly severe. The paper explores — both theoretically and empirically — tender procedures which involve a set of additional conditions to be satisfied by the winner. The aim is to provide a framework for understanding revenue inefficiencies inherent in many auctions and tenders held in Russia during transition. |
| JEL: | D44 |
| Date: | 2004–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-111e&r=tra |
| By: | Vladimir Matveenko; Peter Saveliev |
| Abstract: | Recent RLMS data show that about 70 per cent of Russian citizens still have their principal employment in the so-called “old” sector of the economy, i.e. at State-owned enterprises or ones that have been privatized, but not really restructured. Typically, many Russians engage in homework and take second jobs: people spend about 30 per cent of their total working hours in the “new” sector, where hourly pay rates are 3 to 5 times higher than in their principal jobs. So why is it that there is no “exodus” of labor from the “old” sector? What are the factors maintaining a supply of labor for that sector? The study will analyze data of RLMS and a special survey planned to be conducted in St. Petersburg using an original questionnaire. The main factors maintaining labor supply in the old sector, as identified by the authors, include stable, if low, pay, social benefits, and relatively guaranteed employment. A very significant factor is the deep-rooted practice of “formal” employment, whereby people get their tiny salaries regardless of performance. So in fact, working in the “old” sector is being replaced by leisure time, work in the new sector, and homework. The situation can be described as follows: while management pretends to pay, employees pretend to work. |
| JEL: | J00 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-215e&r=tra |
| By: | Irina Tochitskaya; Ernest Aksen |
| Abstract: | In 1995 three countries of the former Soviet Union (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) established a Customs Union, which Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan joined later. After the passage of five years since the Customs Union formation, it is essential to assess the implications of Belarus’ membership in this Customs Union. The objective of this project is the analysis of the costs and benefits of the Belarus’ participation in the Customs Union of the CIS countries based on the study of the static and dynamic economic effects and their impact on the nation’s welfare, and the Belarus’ economy growth rate. As the evaluations of Belarus’ participation in the Customs Union by the country’s government and political opposition are completely opposite, a politically independent analysis is of principal importance. |
| JEL: | F00 |
| Date: | 2004–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-443e&r=tra |
| By: | Oleksiy Isayenko; Alexander Shcherbakov |
| Abstract: | The share of antidumping investigations against transition economies in the total number of investigations increased from 20 to over than 40 percent during the last decade. There are two opposite explanations of this trend among economists. One group argues that the growth of antidumping investigations is caused by direct and indirect subsidies to exporters in transition economies. Others see the main cause in the inability of transition economies to protect their interests in international trade. In this paper, the authors develop an econometric model that evaluates the comparative weight of each factor that influences the antidumping activity against transition economies. On the base of obtained results policy recommendations are designed to improve international trade efficiency |
| JEL: | F00 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:00-466e&r=tra |
| By: | Aleksandr Abolmassov; Denis Kolodin |
| Abstract: | The structure of the electricity market in Russia is analyzed. The findings of this project will help to evaluate different scenaria of structural changes in terms of electricity price and market concentration. |
| JEL: | D4 L43 L51 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-016e&r=tra |
| By: | Irina Bezlepkina |
| Abstract: | This project analyzes whether Russian farms operate under liquidity constraints or under soft budget constraints. A production function that utilizes the concept of total factor productivity will be used. Incorporation of financial variables in the production function will allow analyzing their effects on farm output and suggest agricultural policy implications. |
| JEL: | Q00 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-034e&r=tra |
| By: | Georgy Kolodyazhny; Alexey Medvedev |
| Abstract: | The project will focus on the microstructure of Russian stock market. The main question to be asked: is there any fundamental information in the market? In order to answer this question we will carry out a study of investor behavior in the leading organized exchange (MICEX) and the determinants of investors’ successes. |
| JEL: | G00 G14 |
| Date: | 2003–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-060e&r=tra |
| By: | Valentina Lapo |
| Abstract: | The goal of this project is the explanation of spatial distribution of investment in Russia during the transition to a market economy. The influence of agglomeration and investor expectations on investment in the real sector of the economy are analyzed. A theoretical model is constructed, which describes an increase in investment concentration. An empirical test of hypothesis is conducted. The results provide useful recommendations for regional investment policies. |
| Keywords: | investment, agglomeration, expectation, concentration of production, regions |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-087e&r=tra |
| By: | Alexander Sotskov |
| Abstract: | The project provides a characterization of optimal non-stationary financial policies in the Sidrausky model with initial debt and threshold consumption which specifies the Phelps relation. The range of the nominal interest rate, and the gain from the difference between internal and external interest rates are also investigated. Finally, the project also supposes an exploration of behavior of trajectories, which are the same as in a cash-in-advance model, and a study of the time-consistency problem. |
| JEL: | E00 G00 G1 |
| Date: | 2004–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-166e&r=tra |
| By: | Yury Andrienko |
| Abstract: | Is development criminogenic? Presented model of criminal behavior in the economy with heterogeneous agents shows, that economic development (wealth increase) is accompanied with crime growth, whereas reduction in inequity (inequality in distribution of wealth) and higher human development (rise of honesty, measured by the level of education) lead to lower crime rate. These hypotheses will be tested on data from international crime victim surveys. |
| JEL: | K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2003–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-214e&r=tra |
| By: | Sergey Kokovin; Evgeniy Zhelobodko |
| Abstract: | In this normative study of fiscal competition mechanism, we allow for various schemes of taxation, various mobility of tax-base, non-identical regions, and nonbenevolent governments. We examine the fundamental trade-o® between “negative externalities” of the competition and benefits from its budget discipline. Some indicators of regional “rivalry” and “non-benevolence” are constructed for diagnosing marginal “over-taxing” in any region. It enables also “in-large” comparison of fiscal regimes. Under some restrictions on the country’s heterogeneity in tax rates, marginal “over-taxing” at competition signifies that switching to certain sort of tax co-ordination would deteriorate welfare. |
| JEL: | H73 H32 D43 |
| Date: | 2004–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-219e&r=tra |
| By: | Valentin Melnik |
| Abstract: | What is the optimum mix of trade policy instruments? Usually governments choose among such instruments as quotas, tariffs, explicit or implicit subsidies. The goal of the project is to consider the possibility of a simultaneous use by the government of quotas (and corresponding license fees) and tariffs. The combined use of quotas and tariffs is better — from the efficiency point of view — than a policy based on simple quotas or simple tariffs. The qualitative outcomes of the analysis depend on the type of government behavior (revenue or public welfare maximization), and market structure. The study aims at improving our understanding of the link between government intervention — the optimal mix of trade policy instruments — and competition in the home goods market. |
| JEL: | C72 D43 F12 L13 F00 |
| Date: | 2003–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:01-250e&r=tra |
| By: | Sergey Verstyuk |
| Abstract: | This empirical research aims to test for the presence of opportunistic electoral business cycles in Ukraine. National and regional-level data on budget revenues and expenditures, output, unemployment rate, wages, and wage arrears (and prices, subject to the availability of data) will be employed. We will try to evaluate the magnitudes of electoral cycles, and check whether magnitude decreases with rationality of voters. |
| JEL: | D72 E32 E62 H71 H72 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:02-209e&r=tra |
| By: | Anna Vdovichenko; Victoria Voronina |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Bank of Russia behaviour in post crisis period. Special attention is devoted to econometric modelling of monetary policy rules of various types. Standard model is modified in a number of ways and estimated with the use of alternative econometric techniques (GMM, OLS and TSLS methodology). One of the modifications is set in the form of a system of two simultaneous equations, describing dynamics of intervention on foreign currency market and sterilisation of excess liquidity by the Bank of Russia. Empirical results support preliminary assumptions made on the basis of qualitative analysis of terms and principles of monetary and exchange rate policy in 1999-2003. Thus, interest rate policy of the Central Bank has had rather adaptive format, while management of base money dynamics possessed pronounced stabilising pattern. Another major finding lie in the fact that despite officially declared priority of anti-inflation policy major efforts of the Bank of Russia were turned to the regulation of the exchange rate. There are some reasons to suggest that the Central Bank intervened in the exchange market with the aim to affect not only the smoothness of the exchange rate but also its level. |
| Keywords: | Russia, monetary and exchange rate policy, monetary policy rule, intervention, sterilisation |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2004–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:04-09e&r=tra |
| By: | Elizaveta Shevyakhova; Oleg Rytchkov |
| Abstract: | In this paper we suggest to use a 'new economic geography' paradigm for explanation of regional reallocation of industrial employment in Russia in 1985-1999. We construct a new economic geography" type model adjusted to specific features of Russian economy. This model gives a counterfactual distribution of industry across regions and allows us to construct a theoretical factor NEGF which is supposed to predict real changes in allocation of industrial employment. Our analysis of empirical data shows that NEGF indeed has a predictive power and this result is valid for a sufficiently wide range of model specifications. |
| Keywords: | Russia, new economic geography, industry allocation |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2004–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:04-10e&r=tra |
| By: | Sergey Afontsev |
| Abstract: | When designing a trade policy reform, government of a transition country faces the problem of minimizing both trade distortions and losses in tariff revenues. One possible solution of this problem is tariff unification, which undermines stimuli for tariff evasion and thus saves budget revenues. We use Grossman-Helpman (1994) model of tariff formation extended for the case of asymmetric information to analyze a political economy basis of tariff unification in Russia (2000-2001) and prospects of further tariff unification during the WTO accession process. |
| Keywords: | Russia, political economy, endogenous protection theory, tariff regulation, policy formation in transition economy, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 P26 P33 |
| Date: | 2004–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:04-12e&r=tra |
| By: | Tatyana Chetvernina; Irina Soboleva; Svetlana Lomonosova |
| Abstract: | This project is aimed at assessing and comparing the influence of enterprise restructuring on employment and labor practices in several industrial regions of Russia. Analysis will be based on survey data compiled over the last six years as well as future data the authors intend to collect. |
| Date: | 1998–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:96-050e&r=tra |
| By: | Alexander Granberg; Victor Suslov; Evgenia Kolomak |
| Abstract: | The project focuses on the contemporary state of five Russian macro-regions - European Russia, the Urals, Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia and the Far East - and their immediate perspectives for trade and economic integration in both an inter-regional and an international context. The study uses an open economy model, looking at its current state and short-term dynamics. The authors employ input-output models for 30 industries and five regions as well as economic equilibrium and cooperative game theory. |
| Date: | 1998–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:96-132e&r=tra |
| By: | Alexander Varshavsky |
| Abstract: | This project will focus on creating an aggregate model for analyzing processes of inflation and stabilization of the Russian economy based on monthly statistical data anaysis. This includes specification of linear and nonlinear multifactor and lag equations, choosing adequate factors, estimation of parameters, and adjustment of the model. The author will also investigate the model’s response to different shocks and make recommendations for stabilizing the Russian economy. |
| Date: | 1999–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:97-109e&r=tra |
| By: | Olga Kuzina; Yana Roshchina |
| Abstract: | The project will provide a comparative analysis of financial behavior of households in Russia in the mid-90's. The data is collected from the authors' own surveys conducted in four regions of Russia. The project will evaluate parameters of regression models and construct typologies of financial behavior, with particular attention being paid to the household saving strategies. |
| Date: | 2000–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:98-041e&r=tra |
| By: | Victor Chetverikov |
| Abstract: | The authors apply the single-index Sharp model and construct the effective Markowitz set for the most liquid stocks of Russian companies listed in the Russian Trading System. Their stability during 1996-98 is studied for various investment horizons. |
| Date: | 2000–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:98-057e&r=tra |
| By: | Igor Korel; Liudmila Korel |
| Abstract: | The project centers on the effect of macroeconomics factors on inter-regional migration in Russian, using regression analysis and discriminant analysis. The motivation focuses on understanding migration in order to choose appropriate policies to influence it. The key question is whether the emerging pattern of migration provides evidence that a pro-market (labor market) mechanism is emerging. The authors hope to differentiate market-motivated migration from "catastrophic" migration such as flight from Chechnya or emigration after the Sakhalin earthquake. |
| Date: | 2000–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:98-089e&r=tra |
| By: | Sergey Kokovin |
| Abstract: | The model of competition for investment assumes that regions use individualized tax relief for different projects and produce public goods. The capital market allocates investments among regions, and the labor market adjusts wages and employment. Simulations with the model under different assumptions on regions’ behavior should discover clusters of developing and stagnating regions. |
| Date: | 2000–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:98-242e&r=tra |
| By: | Ekaterina Gnedenko; Zoya Gorbunova; Georgy Safonov |
| Abstract: | The project is devoted to investigation of the households’ perception of the ecological health risk using the example of the drinking water consumption. The authors estimate the households’ willingness-to-pay for improvement of drinking water quality. In addition, they analyze the possibilities of using the households’ resources as an alternative source for financing the ecological health risk reduction in Transition. |
| Date: | 2000–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:98-263e&r=tra |
| By: | Andrey Sarychev; Yulia Kossykh |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a dynamic theory of adjustment of the two contract enforcement mechanisms: use of collateral and coalitions employing multilateral punishment strategies. We show that in the aftermath of transition, both of these mechanisms fail to provide sufficient protection so that not only the new contracts are excessively simple to economize on enforcement, but also some contracts existing before the liberalization may actually break down. |
| Date: | 2000–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:98-267e&r=tra |
| By: | Rustam Bakirov; Maxim Grishan |
| Abstract: | Panic and a massive withdrawal of deposits triggered by an expectation of bankruptcy may force the bank to sell off valuable assets, causing sizeable losses and, in some cases, closure of an initially healthy financial institution. The traditional way of preventing bank runs has to do with the imposition of various restrictions on the bank’s activity. Yet, restrictions and regulations can vary. Based on a theoretical model, the authors analyze the effect of alternative banking regulation instruments on the stability of the Russian financial system. |
| JEL: | E00 G00 |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-088e&r=tra |
| By: | Mikhail Matovnikov |
| Abstract: | Transition from a stage of inflation and/or currency depreciation to a period of monetary stability puts heavy pressures on the banking system. The stage of monetary contraction during attempts at disinflation brings the banking system to the verge of crisis. The success of stabilization and subsequent expansion works to improve conditions in the banking system; yet, an expansion which is too fast and unbalanced may end in a new crisis. Based on data obtained from a sample of Russian banks and from a cross-country panel, this study aims to identify the channels for the transmission of monetary developments during the stabilization of banking system operations |
| Date: | 2003–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-244e&r=tra |
| By: | Yury Andrienko |
| Abstract: | What were the causes of the criminal waves that have accompanied the transition in Russia during the 90s? The usual suspects are poverty, income inequality, unemployment, in particular among young people, excessive alcohol consumption, inconsistency in reform and the inability of the authorities to combat crime. Based on data for 77 Russian regions, this econometric study focuses on the different socio-economic, demographic and other indicators in order to identify the major determinants of crime. |
| Date: | 2002–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-252e&r=tra |
| By: | Guillaume GAULIER; Francoise LEMOINE; Deniz ÜNAL-KESENCI |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian production networks. International processing activities, based on Asian inputs and mainly carried out by Asian affiliates have been the engine of China's trade expansion in the nineties. China's position in « triangular trade », characterised by deficits with Asia in intermediate goods and surpluses with "Western" countries in final goods, is similar to that of ASEAN countries. But the size of China's economy carries the mechanisms of triangular trade to extremes, as China's exports are displacing those of other Asian economies in Western markets at an accelerated pace. |
| Date: | 2004–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:04033.&r=tra |
| By: | Oliver Froer |
| Keywords: | Contigent Valuation; |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoh:hohdip:245&r=tra |
| By: | Igor Eremenko; Katerina Lisenkova |
| Abstract: | The goal of our research is to study Ukraine's accession to the WTO referring to one particular sector discussed most hotly in this context: metallurgy. Ukrainian metallurgy has two remarkable features: from one side, steel producers receive substantial subsidies; from the other side, Ukrainian metallurgical exports have been permanently brought under antidumping investigations. The purpose of this research is to study effects of both cases and find impact on metallurgy and total welfare. The results of partial equilibrium model shows that on balance the total gains for the Ukrainian economy are calculated to be above USD 343 million, or 1.1 % of GDP; hence, in the subsidies-antidumping duel there is no trade-off for Ukrainian economy. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, WTO, antidumping, subsidization, metallurgy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L61 H21 H25 |
| Date: | 2004 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:certdp:0411&r=tra |
| By: | Mauricio Mesquita Moreira (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | China’s emergence has raised pointed questions about the future of manufacturing in Latin America. Once saw as its economic future, the viability of this activity in the region has long been challenged by traditional trade theory and, in practical terms, by at least three generations of Asian Tigers. China and its “unlimited supply of labor”, rapid productivity growth, scale, and extremely interventionist state has brought the practical challenge to unprecedented levels. This paper, using mainly descriptive production and trade statistics, looks at the nature of this challenge and its implications. It begins by dealing with a central issue: Does manufacturing still matter for Latin America’s development? It argues that even though there are other options that should be exploited, the region cannot afford to completely turn its back to a well-proven road to development. It then moves on to examine the scope and nature of the Chinese challenge. It shows that endowments, productivity, scale and the government role, all work together to make China a formidable competitor. The importance of this challenge is confirmed by an analysis of the trade data, which suggests a small impact so far, but a trend that should make Latin American policy makers uncomfortable in their seats. The paper concludes by discussing, in general terms, the (difficult) policy options available. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, China, Manufacturing |
| JEL: | O P |
| Date: | 2004–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0412008&r=tra |
| By: | Chung H. Lee (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the economic crisis of 1997-98 South Korea has undertaken a number of major institutional reforms. What are these reforms? Why were they undertaken? What is the outcome of the reforms? In answering these questions the paper examines the influence that the ideas of political leaders on political economy had in setting forth the reform agenda and the role that various interest groups have played in implementing the reform. It argues that there was a shift in the developmental paradigm in the early 1980s, that the new paradigm guided reforms in Korea during the 1980s and 1990s but with initial conditions and interest politics influencing the implementation and actual outcome of reform, and that the post-crisis reform was a culmination of the reform process that began in the early 1980s. |
| Keywords: | Korea, Institutional Reform, Asian Financial Crisis. |
| JEL: | O5 P1 G1 |
| Date: | 2004 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:0412&r=tra |
| By: | Richard M. Bird (International Tax Program, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a brief review of some issues in urban finance facing China’s larger cities. It argues that at present many key aspects of the ways in which local and metropolitan governments finance infrastructure and services are financed in China seem to be both too obscure for proper accountability and too perverse for efficient use of scarce urban land and capital. Given the importance of urban areas for sustained national development, it is important to get urban finance “right” in the sense of providing the right signals to both public and private actors in urban development. Some suggestions are made on how this might perhaps be done by better designed user charges, property taxes, and other instruments. |
| Keywords: | China, urban finance, user charges, local taxes, infrastructure finance, public-private partnerships |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ttp:itpwps:0413&r=tra |
| By: | Olivier Lamotte (ROSES) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of disintegration of an economic union on trade patterns. Our study focuses on Southeastern Europe, which was highly fragmented during the nineties because of the dissolution of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) and of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). The empirics are based on the gravity equation and the estimation uses a 29-country panel database for 1993-2001. We show that despite the setting up of barriers to trade and the war, trade flows between countries of the region remained higher than explained by their economic size and mutual distance. |
| Keywords: | Disintegration, gravity equation, Southeastern Europe |
| JEL: | F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2004–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:j04031&r=tra |
| By: | Suiwah Leung; James Riedel |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Vietnam’s economic development for the three decades since the early 1980s, and the changing role that the state played in this process. The success of the first major liberalization step (Doi Moi ) is attributed, in large part, to the microeconomic/structural reforms that occurred throughout the 1980s and to the confluence of economics and politics. This did not continue into the second half of the 1990s when reforms stalled. Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997/98, the pace of reforms has accelerated. This paper argues that, for the reforms to be effective, the state has to be viewed as performing a catalytic role whilst permitting the private sector to contribute directly to economic growth. |
| JEL: | O1 P2 |
| Date: | 2001 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec01-1&r=tra |
| By: | Patrick de Fontenay; Suiwah Leung |
| Abstract: | Not available |
| JEL: | Q11 Z00 |
| Date: | 2002 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec02-4&r=tra |
| By: | Tuong Nhu Che; Tom Kompas; Neil Vousden |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a dynamic model to analyse the effects of liberalisation on the longrun output and transitional growth of the Vietnamese rice sector during the period of reform from 1981 to the present. In particular, the paper attempts to allow for the incentive effects which can result if liberalisation induces individuals to work harder and use land more efficiently. Each new stage of liberalisation is shown to result in a higher steady-state level of physical capital and rice output. It is shown that, even with an assumed zero rate of growth in the ‘Solow residual’ component of total factor productivity, liberalisation may increase the long-run production of rice output by an order of two times its initial value. The analysis also predicts a significantly higher transitional growth rate of rice output for the more pervasive second stage of liberalisation than that for the first stage, suggesting that incentives and open markets matter greatly. |
| JEL: | Q18 Q33 |
| Date: | 2002 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec02-5&r=tra |
| By: | Quoc Ngu Vu |
| Abstract: | Not available |
| JEL: | L32 O33 H89 |
| Date: | 2002 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec02-6&r=tra |
| By: | Nhat Le |
| Abstract: | We reconsider the theory of ambiguous property rights in China. In a static game context, this ownership allocation is good because a local entrepreneur can probably get services provided by local bureaucrats at lower costs than a private owner; but bad because once knowing the firm’s unobservable income, local bureaucrats are likely to encroach the firm. In an ongoing relationship, such a predatory behaviour may be limited if local bureaucrats care enough about future returns. Ironically, they often discount future too much. An additional device to supplement the shadow of future is needed. In China, this is the contingent delegation from the central. Under this policy, local bureaucrats must compete to gain more autonomy on the basis of local economy’s performance. If the expected gain from the competition is sufficiently large, it may become incentive compatible for capable local bureaucrats to enhance local firms, despite incapable ones shirks. For those shirkers, the central still keeps regulating their activities as if they were under the central planing regime. One then sees that the pace of reform is slow and uneven across regions or sectors. It may be seen as a step back compared with a rapid and large-scale reform such as the one in the Former Soviet Union. However, this policy has served reasonably well to solve some incentive problems in reform, including the central contradiction: the local agencies blame the central for lack of autonomy; and the central blames them for lack of accountability. |
| JEL: | C7 O1 P2 |
| Date: | 2003 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec03-4&r=tra |
| By: | Amy Y.C. Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys 1992–93 and 1997–98 to examine changes in the gender wage gap. The intertemporal decomposition of Juhn et al. (1991) indicates that changes in observed variables, skill prices and wage inequality have tended to narrow the gap, but the gap effect has tended to widen it, with the net effect being one of little change. This finding is in contrast with that for the EEC but in line with the experience of China. Improving education about equity practices in the workplace to combat discriminatory attitudes, and further decentralisation to facilitate the growth of the private sector, are two of the policy implications drawn. |
| JEL: | J40 J71 P23 O15 |
| Date: | 2003 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec03-5&r=tra |
| By: | Tom Kompas |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the dramatic increases in rice output and productivity in Vietnam due largely to market reform, inducing farmers to work harder and use land more efficiently. The reform process is captured through changes in effort variables and a decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) due to enhanced incentives for two main reform periods: output contracts (1981-87) and trade liberalization (1988-94). The results show that the more extensive is market reform the larger the increase in TFP and the share of TFP growth due to incentive effects, suggesting that more competitive markets and secure property rights matter greatly. However, in the post-reform period (1995-99), the incentive component of TFP dissipates as a result of falls in the price of rice and slow increases in input prices, especially for hired labour, fertilizer and capital. A stochastic production frontier is estimated to determine what farm-specific factors limit efficiency gains. Results show that farms in the main rice growing regions, those with larger farm size and farms with a higher proportion of rice land ploughed by tractor are more efficient, suggesting the need for additional reforms to augment productvity. In particular, the requirement that rice be grown in every province in Vietnam, restrictions on farm size (especially in the north) and the slow development of rural credit markets for capital and land are seen to restrict the level and growth of efficiency substantially. |
| JEL: | O13 O47 Q10 |
| Date: | 2004 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec04-4&r=tra |
| By: | Amy Y.C. Liu |
| Abstract: | The impact of sectoral location on the gender earnings gap is important in the context of Vietnam’s transition into a market-oriented economy. More and more women are seeking employment in the private sector either in response to retrenchment in the public sector or in response to increasing economic opportunities in the private sector. We apply the Appleton et al. (1999) decomposition technique to the Vietnam Living Standards Survey data collected in 1992- 93 and 1997-98, to decompose the gender earnings gap into within sector and between-sector differences. It has found that sectoral location has become more important in 1997-98 and that the changes have had an adverse impact on the gender gap. To further examine the results, conventional decomposition methods are used on different sectors. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, the absolute gender earnings gap has risen over time in the private sector. Second, discrimination has increasingly accounted for more of the gender earnings differences in the private sector over time. Third, discrimination accounts for more of the gap in the private sector than in SOEs in 1997-98 than in 1992-93. |
| JEL: | J3 J7 P23 |
| Date: | 2001 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec01-3&r=tra |