|
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Yao Lu; Hanqing Shi; Wu Zhu |
| Abstract: | We study how exposure to automation affects the nature and level of corporate innovation, which informs how innovation begets innovation. We document that firms with high robot exposure alter their technological focus over time and shift innovative activities towards AI which automation naturally complements through data accumulation. The shift is more pronounced for firms with greater data generation or prior AI-related research experience. Because AI patents are more costly (e.g., in labor input), albeit more general and original, firms with high automation experience a significant rise in R&D expenditure but an initial drop in patent quantity, before benefiting—an innovation “J-Curve.” Our findings not only resolve the puzzle that globally firms invent less despite the greater research effort amidst rising automation, but also provides insights on the heterogeneous paths of innovation, all of which we rationalize in a parsimonious dynamic equilibrium model. |
| JEL: | G30 O36 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34240 |
| By: | Lorenzo Emer; Andrea Mina; Andrea Vandin |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key enabler of innovation against climate change. In this study, we investigate the intersection of AI and climate adaptation and mitigation technologies through patent analyses of a novel dataset of approximately 63 000 Green AI patents. We analyze patenting trends, corporate ownership of the technology, the geographical distributions of patents, their impact on follow-on inventions and their market value. We use topic modeling (BERTopic) to identify 16 major technological domains, track their evolution over time, and identify their relative impact. We uncover a clear shift from legacy domains such as combustion engines technology to emerging areas like data processing, microgrids, and agricultural water management. We find evidence of growing concentration in corporate patenting against a rapidly increasing number of patenting firms. Looking at the technological and economic impact of patents, while some Green AI domains combine technological impact and market value, others reflect weaker private incentives for innovation, despite their relevance for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. This is where policy intervention might be required to foster the generation and use of new Green AI applications. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10109 |
| By: | Esther Arenas-Arroyo (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Jacob Fabian (Market Development, ISO New England); Friederike Mengel (Department of Economics, University of Essex and Erasmus University Rotterdam); Bernhard Schmidpeter (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Michel Serafinelli (King's College London, ESCoE, RFBerlin, CESifo) |
| Abstract: | How does firms’ skill demand change as the business landscape evolves? We present evidence from the green transition by analyzing how hurricanes impact demand for green skills. These disasters signal the risks of not acting on environmental issues. Using data from U.S. online job postings (2010–2019) and hurricane paths, we create a new measure of green job postings. Firms in areas affected by hurricanes are 6.4% more likely to post jobs that require green skills after the event, particularly those serving local markets. |
| Keywords: | Green skills, Green transition, Online job postings, Hurricanes |
| JEL: | J23 Q54 L20 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp385 |
| By: | Carlo Bottai (University of Milano–Bicocca); Gaétan de Rassenfosse (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne); Emilio Raiteri (Eindhoven University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Measuring the commercialization of patented inventions remains a key challenge in innovation studies. This paper introduces a novel, web-based method for tracking the commercialization of patented inventions. The method leverages targeted web searches to identify online traces of the commercialization of patented products, offering a scalable alternative to surveys and case studies. We apply this method to patents arising from the U.S. Department of Defense’s Small Business Innovation Research program, linking 3, 070 patents to procurement contracts and assessing their commercialization outcomes. The results indicate that 21.5% of these patents show signs of commercialization, with variations across R&D stages and contract phases. The method provides a systematic way to identify market adoption of patented technologies and can be extended to other contexts where identifying commercialized patents is relevant. |
| Keywords: | government-funded research; invention commercialization; patents; policy evaluation; web-based evidence |
| JEL: | O31 O38 O34 L26 H81 C55 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iip:wpaper:28 |
| By: | Michael Kilumelume; Justice Tei Mensah; Aimable Nsabimana; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of automation on firm performance and the labour market in the context of an emerging economy. To do this, we leverage unique administrative data on the universe of manufacturing firms in South Africa to identify causal evidence of firm-level outcomes from automation adoption. In the event-study design, we derive direct effects of automation on automating firms, the spillover effects on non-automating firms, and employment within the industry and location. |
| Keywords: | Firms, Automation, Labour market, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-61 |
| By: | Mulabdic, Alen; Nayyar, Gaurav; Stapleton, Katherine |
| Abstract: | The environmental Kuznets curve postulates an inverted-U relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth. And economic growth has been synonymous with structural transformation. How do patterns of growth and structural transformation relate to carbon emissions? Based on data across almost 100 countries between 1960 and 2017, we find that the movement of workers into the manufacturing and services sectors is associated with a higher carbon emissions intensity of GDP. However, this positive association diminishes at higher shares of employment in both the manufacturing sector and modern, knowledge-intensive services. The diminishing positive association between emissions intensity and structural transformation towards these sectors is more discernible for developing economies compared with advanced economies. Further, based on sector-specific carbon emissions across 66 countries between 1995 and 2018, we find evidence of convergence in the carbon emissions intensity of production across countries in all sectors, with the potential for further reductions in developing economies, especially given relatively high indirect carbon emissions through inter-sectoral linkages. |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11214 |
| By: | Cigna, Luca; Di Carlo, Donato; Durazzi, Niccolò |
| Abstract: | The green transition is fundamentally transforming contemporary economies and societies. This article investigates how European models of capitalism perform and specialize across the green value chain—conceptualized as innovation, manufacturing, services, and deployment—and how national skill formation systems underpin these specializations. Integrating insights from comparative capitalism literatures with descriptive statistics and principal component analysis (PCA), we develop and test expectations about growth regime‐specific patterns of green specialization and skill profiles. Our findings reveal marked cross‐national variation between green leaders and laggards: Nordic economies characterized by dynamic services and continental manufacturing‐based models are frontrunners in the green transition, while Eastern Europe's FDI‐led regimes and Southern Europe's demand‐led regimes emerge as laggards. Furthermore, PCA results uncover two distinct decarbonization pathways among European green leaders: one group of countries (Austria, Finland, Germany) specializes in green manufacturing, supported by high shares of STEM graduates; another (Denmark, Switzerland, and to a lesser extent Norway and Sweden) focuses on green innovation and dynamic services, sustained by a strong supply of STEM doctorates. This article contributes to political economy debates on the green transition by identifying distinct green specializations and decarbonization pathways across European models of capitalism and by underscoring the growing centrality of high‐level STEM skills in the green transition. |
| Keywords: | growth regimes; skill formation; global value chains; green transition; comparative political economy |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129591 |
| By: | Klaus Friesenbichler; Agnes Kügler |
| Abstract: | We study the short- and medium-term extensive and intensive margins of intangible investments in firm growth processes. The intensive and extensive margins of investment are both highly skewed and differ across sectors. Less productive firms are less likely to invest in intangibles, while incorporated firms are more likely to do so. Intangible capital only complements physical capital for a limited number of firms. Intangible investment is positively associated with short-term productivity growth, particularly among firms that consistently invest over time. The medium-term effects on productivity are limited and are largely confined to top-performing firms. We find systematic short-term effects of intangible investment on employment growth. Regular investment patterns correlate with higher employment growth over both time horizons. These results challenge the conventional assumption that intangible capital uniformly enhances firm performance. They also highlight the importance of sustained investment behavior and sectoral context. |
| Keywords: | intangible capital, employment, productivity, investment, firm growth, sample selection, Austria, microdata |
| Date: | 2025–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:711 |
| By: | Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Martin Stojanovikj (Deusto Business School, University of Deusto) |
| Abstract: | We examine how extractive institutions affect the timing of the takeoff to sustained economic growth, the pace of industrialization, and the long-run balanced growth path of an economy. The politically dominant ruling elite can choose to extract a share of output and/or to interfere with creative destruction by extracting innovation resources. In so doing, the ruling elite needs to balance its desire for grabbing a greater share of resources with the constraint of being able to stay in power. We show that the extraction from output delays the takeoff to sustained economic growth and reduces economic growth in the early industrial period. However, taken by itself, output extraction does not reduce the long-run balanced growth rate. By contrast, if the ruling elite interferes with creative destruction by extracting resources meant for innovation, it suppresses economic growth during industrialization and along the balanced growth path. After deriving the main results analytically, we calibrate the model to the U.S. economy to illustrate the adverse long-run development effects of extractive institutions. According to our results, institutions and policies that reduce the extractive power of the ruling elite can boost economic development to a substantial degree. |
| Keywords: | Extractive Institutions, Institutions and Growth, Industrial Takeoff, Schumpeterian Growth, Economic Development, Long-Run Growth, Growth Transitions |
| JEL: | O31 O40 O43 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp387 |
| By: | Jaedo Choi; George Cui; Younghun Shim; Yongseok Shin |
| Abstract: | US multinationals formed joint ventures in China for market access and lower labor costs. However, these ventures transfer technology to Chinese firms, fueling future competition. While individual firms weigh the risks to their own profits, they disregard the negative impact on other US firms and the broader economy, resulting in an over-investment that may reduce the US welfare. In our empirical analysis, industries with more joint ventures in China show positive spillovers to Chinese firms but negative outcomes for firms in the US. We develop a two-country model with oligopolistic competition, innovation, and joint ventures. For the US, the short-run gains from joint ventures are outweighed by long-run losses due to rising Chinese competition. Joint ventures benefit large US firms at the expense of small firms and the real wages of workers. A ban on joint ventures since 1999 would have boosted US welfare by 1.2 percent. |
| JEL: | F23 O25 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34284 |