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on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | Zehra Usta; Martin Andersson; Katarzyna Kopczewska; Maria Kubara |
| Abstract: | A common proposition is that certain technologies play a catalytic role in regions by paving the way for the emergence of new related technologies, contributing to the development and diversification of technology clusters. This paper employs unsupervised machine learning algorithms with temporally informed association rule mining to identify catalytic patents in clusters in the UK. Using data spanning over 30 years (1980-2015) we show clear asymmetric relationships between patents. Some act as evident catalysts that drive future patent activity in clusters. The results point to a strong empirical relevance of asymmetric relatedness between patents in the development of clusters of technology. They also highlight the usefulness of machine learning algorithms to better understand the long-term evolution of clusters and show how temporally informed association rule mining can be used to analyses asymmetries in relatedness and to identify catalyst technologies. |
| Keywords: | clusters, innovation, cluster dynamics, technological relatedness, asymmetric relatedness, innovation catalysts, patents |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2528 |
| By: | Schmöller, Michaela; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Schmidt, Tobias |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on innovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the ef- fect of a large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during 2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over the medium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the survey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes. Responses to hikes and cuts are significant and largely symmetric at the baseline rate (4.5%), though we detect potential state-dependent asymmetry due to the extensive margin. The financing channel emerges as one of the trans- mission channels, with more pronounced effects in firms with higher shares of bank loans and variable-rate loans. Crucially, we show that monetary policy transmits via aggregate demand, with stronger responses in firms with pessimistic demand expectations. Forward guidance provides substantial additional stimulus by re- ducing uncertainty about future rates, suggesting long-term, supply-side effects of announcements. These results challenge monetary long-run neutrality and are sug- gestive of policy endogeneity of R∗ operating through innovation-driven technology growth. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission, R&D, Endogenous Growth, ForwardGuidance, R∗ |
| JEL: | E52 E22 E24 O30 D22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:324662 |
| By: | Jessica Birkholz; Susanna Bolz; Björn Jindra; Philip Kerner |
| Abstract: | Green hydrogen can play a major role in future net-zero energy systems. This paper investigates how existing technological and production capabilities can support the emergence and growth of green hydrogen value chains in Northern and Western Germany. Drawing on evolutionary economic geography, we argue that the development of the hydrogen value chain depends on the relatedness between existing knowledge bases and hydrogen technologies, and further recombinant capabilities, as well as the processes involved in acquiring capabilities. Our analysis focuses on seven NUTS 2 regions with favorable conditions for the development of hydrogen hubs, which are low cost of renewable energy production, access to hydrogen infrastructure, and political support for the hydrogen economy. We comparatively examine the regional capabilities using patent data to map technological innovation, firm-level data to identify key corporate actors, and regionalized export statistics to assess production capabilities. Based on our findings, we argue that the development of green hydrogen hubs might be facilitated by alignment between a region’s existing innovation capabilities, production capabilities, and hub specialization, with place-based policy approaches tailored towards each region’s unique profile. |
| Keywords: | Green hydrogen, Value chains, Regional capabilities |
| JEL: | O13 Q42 Q55 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:atv:wpaper:2505 |
| By: | Lukas B. Freund; Lukas F. Mann |
| Abstract: | Who will gain and who will lose as AI automates tasks? While much of the discourse focuses on job displacement, we show that job transformation—a shift in the task content of jobs—creates large and heterogeneous earnings effects. We develop a quantitative, task-based model where occupations bundle multiple tasks and workers possessing heterogeneous portfolios of task-specific skills select into occupations by comparative advantage. Automation shifts the relative importance of tasks within each occupation, inducing wage effects that we characterize analytically. To quantify these effects, we measure the task content of jobs using natural language processing, estimate the distribution of task-specific skills, and exploit mappings to prominent automation exposure measures to identify task-specific automation shocks. We apply the framework to analyze automation by large language models (LLMs). Within highly exposed occupations, like office and administrative roles, workers specialized in information-processing tasks leave and suffer wage losses. By contrast, those specialized in customer-facing and coordination tasks stay and experience wage gains as work rebalances toward their strengths. Our findings challenge the common assumption that automation exposure equates to wage losses. |
| Keywords: | AI, labor markets, inequality, skills, technological change |
| JEL: | J01 E00 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12072 |
| By: | Cetin, Furkan |
| Abstract: | I examine how Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 606 affects R&D alliance formations and innovation in the drug development industry. ASC 606 alters revenue recognition timing and increases disclosure requirements. I document that firms dependent on R&D alliance revenues accelerate revenue recognition and expand revenue-related disclosures following ASC 606 adoption. These concurrent changes reduce information asymmetry, both between firms and between managers and investors, but only when increased disclosure accompanies accelerated recognition. Consistent with these net reductions in information asymmetry, affected firms raise more equity capital and increase R&D investment. Notably, these firms, which historically acted as technology providers (principals), form more R&D alliances as technology acquirers (partners). Consequently, they exhibit higher innovation output, measured by new patents and drug candidates. This study identifies a specific mechanism through which accounting standards can stimulate innovation: reduced information asymmetry that facilitates strategic R&D alliance formation. |
| Keywords: | real effects; innovation; R&D Alliances; ASC 606; revenue recognition |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2025–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129274 |
| By: | Camilo Levenier |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the relationship between machines and employment across different workers' income quintiles, utilizing firm-level and worker-level microdata for Chile from 2009 to 2023, considering a total of 80, 000 firms and 2, 900, 000 workers. To investigate this dynamic, a panel regression is used, modeling employment as a function of machines and a set of other covariates. Additionally, a generalized propensity score is used to address the endogeneity problem. The results indicate that the relationship between machines and employment is predominantly negative, especially for workers in the middle-income quintiles and for certain economic sectors such as business services, transport, and information & communication. Furthermore, the results suggest that the relationship between machines and employment in high-income quintiles has been positive, supporting the idea that technological development requires highly qualified workers. Overall, the results suggest that automation has had heterogeneous effects on employment in the Chilean labor market, and these effects are smaller than those suggested by the literature. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1048 |
| By: | Billington, Stephen D. (Ulster University Business School, Ulster University); Colvin, Christopher L. (Queen’s Business School, Queen’s University Belfast); Coyle, Christopher (Queen’s Business School, Queen’s University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the design of the patent system shapes firms’ access to finance. We exploit a UK reform that introduced substantive examination into the patent application process, improving the quality of information available to investors about the value of firms’ innovation. Using a newly compiled dataset of officially listed corporations, we find that firms with examined patents increased their borrowing, reflecting improved access to capital markets, which translated into firm growth. Our results highlight how patent examination can function as a screening mechanism that reduces information asymmetry, strengthens the signalling value of patents, and mitigates financial barriers to innovation. |
| Keywords: | firm finance, debt, innovation, patents, patent examination, signalling. JEL Classification: G32, N23, N43, O16, O31, O34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:767 |
| By: | Pablo Acevedo; Elías Albagli; Gonzalo García-Trujillo; María Antonia Yung |
| Abstract: | This project uses unique Chilean administrative data to shed light on how production networks might play a key role in shaping the macroeconomic impacts of green transition policies. First, using customs and firm-to-firm transaction data that covers the universe of firms in Chile, we build the fossil fuel consumption and the direct CO2 emissions at the firm, sectoral, and aggregate levels. In line with the official national sources, the electricity generation sector is the most important contributor to aggregate CO2 emissions, followed by the manufacturing, transport, and mining sectors. Then, we study the role of input-output linkages in propagating CO2 emissions to the rest of the economy. To do so, we construct the production network and the carbon footprint at the firm level using firm-to-firm transaction data from the Chilean IRS, and we validate our results with the input-output tables approach used in the literature. The results show that the electricity generation sector is central in the network, with potentially important downstream spillover effects, while the mining sector is located in the outer part of the network with rich upstream connections. Also, we show that the copper mining industry is the most exposed one to a carbon tax scheme implemented on all the firms in the economy and also to one that only targets the electricity generation sector. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1047 |
| By: | Bairy, Gaurav Gopal; Raj, Prateek; Yayavaram, Sai |
| Abstract: | Productivity spillovers between firms are frequently viewed as an important source of firm productivity enhancement. In this study, we focus on vertically linked inter-industry spillovers and examine their two key characteristics: asymmetry between forward (upstream) and backward (downstream) spillovers and heterogeneity among firms in leveraging such spillovers. We estimate productivity of Indian firms using firm-level data and use Input-Output tables to identify vertical linkages at the industry level. Our findings show that productivity spillovers from upstream industries benefit all firms whereas spillovers from downstream industries primarily benefit productive firms. Furthermore, the impact of forward spillovers is higher for firms operating in less competitive industries and lower for foreign firms. These heterogeneous spillover effects are likely to slow convergence in firm productivity, providing additional justification for the persistence of firm-level differences in productivity levels. |
| Keywords: | productivity spillovers, vertical linkages, firm heterogeneity, industry competition, firm ownership |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:324651 |
| By: | Bastian Silvester Bruestle; Patrick Lehnert; Erik Buunk; Uschi Backes-Gellner; Dietmar Harhoff |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes whether inventor teams composed of members with diverse educational backgrounds, both academic and vocational, exhibit higher performance than teams with the same educational backgrounds. To exploit the different educational backgrounds among patent inventors in Switzerland, we construct a unique dataset of 35, 486 inventors. This dataset links individual patenting activities from European Patent Office data from 1980-2021, with detailed biographical information obtained from LinkedIn. Using a supermodularity framework to assess complementarity, we find that inventor teams composed of members with academic and vocational backgrounds (as opposed to members with the same background) achieve higher team performance, measured by the quality of their jointly filed patents. This complementarity is even stronger in teams with at least one team member from a University of Applied Sciences. Further analysis reveals heterogeneous effects across technological fields. Overall, our findings show the importance of strategically combining different educational backgrounds in inventor teams, thereby highlighting the value of maintaining a balanced educational landscape. |
| Keywords: | team productivity, inventor biographies, vocational education, patent quality |
| JEL: | I23 I26 M54 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0248 |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli; Mauro Napoletano; Angelo Secchi |
| Abstract: | We revisit the size-volatility relationship in firm growth using administrative data on French manufacturing firms. Departing from the log-log linear decay commonly reported by other studies, we find a two-regime pattern: volatility declines steeply with size for small firms, but flattens for larger ones. We relate this new fact to the presence of resources misallocation as captured by imperfect correlation between size and productivity at the firm level. To explain the nexus between these two facts, we develop a stochastic model where firms face a number of risky business opportunities for which they compete. Two key features characterize this competition process. First, larger firms are more intensively exposed to competition dynamics. Second, firms with higher productivity are more likely to see business opportunities turning into positive, rather than negative, growth episodes. We analytically show that only when the correlation between firm size and productivity is lower than 1 the model is able to reproduce the volatility scaling we observed in the data. Simulations suggest that finite sample approximations of our asymptotic result are satisfactory in a reasonable portion of the parameter space. We conclude showing that in France industries populated by firms with higher correlation between size and productivity are associated with steeper average size-volatility decays consistent with the model's main prediction. Our findings suggest that the existence of resources misallocation, shaping the size-volatility relation, affects the relevance of the granularity channel in explaining aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix, 2011). |
| Keywords: | volatility scaling, granularity, resource allocation |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/27 |
| By: | Alessio Tomelleri; Giorgio Cutuli; Andrea Signoretti |
| Abstract: | In the last decades, socio-economic literature has paid considerable attention to the distribution of costs and benefits of technological introduction and ICT diffusion for different segments of the workforce, mainly across distinct occupational or educational groups. This study explores how wage returns to ICT use differ between temporary and permanent workers focusing on the role of trade unions in mitigating this contractual divide. Using recent European microdata from the ESJ2 survey (CEDEFOP 2022), we examine whether union membership enhances wage outcomes for temporary workers using digital skills, and how this effect varies depending on national patterns of union representation. By combining individual-level information with country-level indicators of trade union density across contractual types, we assess how micro and macro level dynamics shape wage parity in ICT returns. Overall, our findings reveal a clear penalty for non-unionised temporary workers. The protective role of trade union membership is nonetheless significant only in national contexts characterized by similar level of trade union density across contractual groups. These results underscore both the conditionalities and potentials of industrial relations in fostering inclusive labour markets amid technological change. |
| Keywords: | ICT skills, wage premiums, European labour markets, temporary contracts, trade unions |
| JEL: | J2 E24 O30 J50 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2025-04 |