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on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | Gathmann, Christina (LISER); Grimm, Felix (LISER); Winkler, Erwin (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | How does Artificial Intelligence (AI) affect the task content of work, and how do workers adjust to the diffusion of AI in the economy? To answer these important questions, we combine novel patent-based measures of AI and robot exposure with individual survey data on tasks performed on the job and administrative data on worker careers. Like prior studies, we find that robots have reduced routine tasks. In sharp contrast, AI has reduced non-routine abstract tasks like information gathering and increased the demand for 'high-level' routine tasks like monitoring processes. These task shifts mainly occur within detailed occupations and become stronger over time. While displacement effects are small, workers have responded by switching jobs, often to less exposed industries. We also document that low-skilled workers suffer some wage losses, while high-skilled incumbent workers experience wage gains. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, tasks, skills, reallocation, robots, patents |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17554 |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Sadhna Naik; Keyra Primus |
| Abstract: | European countries are lagging behind in productivity growth, with significant productivity gaps across industries. In this study, we use comparable industry-level data to explore the patterns and sources of total factor productivity (TFP) growth across 28 countries in Europe over the period 1995–2020. Our empirical results highlight four main points: (i) TFP growth is driven largely by the extent to which countries are involved in scientific and technological innovation as the leader country or benefiting from stronger knowledge spillovers; (ii) the technological gap is associated with TFP growth as countries move towards the technological frontier by adopting new innovations and technologies; (iii) increased investment in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and research and development (R&D) contributes significantly to higher TFP growth; and (iv)the impact of human capital tends to be stronger when a country is closer to the technological frontier. The core findings of this study call for policy measures and structural reforms to promote innovation and facilitate the diffusion of new and existing technologies across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity; technology; R&D; innovation; human capital; Europe |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/258 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the relationship between immigration and firmlevel innovation in the Finnish manufacturing sector. The analysis leverages unique matched data, including employees’ immigration status, firm-level patenting, process and product innovation activities, and innovation inputs spanning the 2000–2018 period. To address the potential endogeneity of a firm’s immigrant employment, an instrumental variables approach is employed using the historical geographic distribution of immigrants in the region where the firm is located. The results reveal that an increase in immigrant employment positively influences process and product innovation, and skilled foreign knowledge boosts the number of patent applications. Additionally, immigration leads to reduced external R&D expenditures, indicating that immigrant workers may substitute outsourced innovation inputs. The study also finds no evidence that immigration adversely affects native workers’ employment in Finnish firms. By contrast, it may benefit natives with complementary skills. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level, Immigration, Innovation |
| JEL: | D22 F22 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:124 |
| By: | Losacker, Sebastian (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Befort, Nicolas (NEOMA Business School); Kriesch, Lukas (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Lhuillery , Stephane (NEOMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | National governments worldwide have implemented strategies to transition towards biobased economies, primarily driven by technological progress. However, how this transition unfolds at the regional level remains under-researched. This paper aims to uncover regional trajectories towards a bioeconomy with a focus on bio-based technologies. We build on the geography of innovation literature and show that potential pathways towards regional bioeconomies are very heterogeneous, thus requiring place-based policy strategies to advance the bioeconomy and its innovations. Empirically, the paper combines two unique patent datasets to reveal how the bioeconomy patent portfolio of 617 regions from 27 OECD countries has changed from 1982 to 2014. We utilize geographical sequence analysis, a novel tool recently introduced to geographical research, and shift-share techniques to categorize and better understand the regional trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomy; Sequence Analysis; Geography of Innovation; Sustainability Transitions |
| JEL: | O31 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_021 |
| By: | Meissner, Leonie P.; Peterson, Sonja; Semrau, Finn Ole |
| Abstract: | In a race against global warming, the world must accelerate the development and adoption of environmental innovations (EIs). In this literature review, we explore the role of governments in promoting EIs across stages of maturity and assess the potential to reduce emissions. Theoretical frameworks on market imperfections underline the necessity of governmental Research and Development (R&D) support. While emission pricing remains the most cost-efficient climate policy, it fails as a stand-alone instrument to sufficiently encourage EI. Overall, the optimal approach is a policy mix complementing emission pricing with governmental R&D support. The theoretical finding is backed by empirical studies on the developmentand deployment of renewable energies, which also show that investment in R&D can effectively reduce emissions. The review concludes by dissecting two pivotalpolicy initiatives, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the European Green New Deal Industrial Plan, evaluating their potential to effectively contribute to decarbonization. |
| Keywords: | green/eco-/environmental innovation, R&D support, climate policy, innovation policy |
| JEL: | O32 O38 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:306604 |
| By: | Peede, Lennert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stops, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "We study how artificial intelligence (AI) affects labour demand at the establishment level. We use the share of AI related vacancy postings at the establishment level to measure efforts to develop, implement or use AI technologies. Low overall AI vacancy shares show that we study a phase of early AI adoption. At the establishment level, the AI vacancy share relates to a small reduction in those skills which are not related to AI technologies. We further find no effects on overall employment growth but slightly higher employment growth in jobs for highly skilled workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Kompetenzprofil ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Betrieb ; Entwicklung ; Jobbörse ; künstliche Intelligenz ; Anwendung ; Qualifikationsanforderungen ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; Stellenanzeige ; Stellenausschreibung ; Arbeitskräftenachfrage ; 2015-2019 |
| JEL: | E23 J24 J63 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202415 |
| By: | Cavalcanti, T.; Mohaddes, K.; Nian, H.; Yin, H. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the long-term impact of air pollution on firm-level R&D human capital composition and innovation, as well as the strategies firms adopt to mitigate these effects. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design based on China’s Huai River heating policy and exploring a novel dataset with detailed information on firm-level R&D sector, we show that prolonged exposure to air pollution significantly reduces the proportion of R&D workers with advanced degrees, such as PhDs and master’s degrees. To counteract these challenges, firms in polluted areas increase their reliance on external strategies, such as acquiring technology and collaborating with universities, and adopt internal measures, including enhanced welfare subsidies for R&D staff and greater investment in experimental instruments. Despite these efforts, firms in polluted areas still produce lower R&D value compared to those in cleaner regions. Our results highlight the key importance of internal human capital in complementing external technological investments. |
| Keywords: | adaptive strategies, air pollution, firm value, innovation, R&D human capital composition |
| Date: | 2024–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2428 |
| By: | Jo, Karam (Korea Development Institute); Kim, Seula (Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | We study how frictions in learning others' technology, termed "imperfect technology spillovers, " impact firm innovation strategies and the aggregate economy through changes in innovation composition. We develop an endogenous growth model that generates strategic innovation decisions, where multi-product firms improve their products via own-innovation and enter new product markets through creative destruction under learning frictions. In our model, firms with technological advantages intensify own-innovation as learning frictions enable them to protect their markets from competitors, thereby reducing creative destruction of rivals. This pattern gets more pronounced when competitive pressure increases exogenously. Using U.S. administrative firm-level data, we provide regression results supporting the model predictions. |
| Keywords: | innovation, technology spillover, endogenous growth, competition |
| JEL: | L11 L25 O31 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17581 |
| By: | Sen, A. |
| Abstract: | I examine the recent productivity growth slowdown and the emergence of digital technologies through the lens of production networks. Digital technologies are increasingly embedded in intermediate inputs, and digital-intensive sectors, often key producers of intermediate and capital goods, amplify the positive effects of these technologies across industries. I show that the slowdown in computer-specific technical change has contributed to the decline in aggregate productivity growth, particularly in digital-intensive service industries, with these effects spreading through the economy via intersectoral linkages. My estimates suggest that this accounts for around 45–55% of the productivity growth slowdown in both the UK and the US since the mid-2000s. I attribute this slowdown largely to structural changes within the computers industry, especially the rising value-added intensity of the sector. In general, production in digital technology-producing industries is characterized by perfect complementarity, explaining the waning effects of digital technologies on aggregate productivity since the mid-2000s. In light of these findings, I take a pessimistic view on the future of productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | digitalization, productivity, production networks, investment-specific technical change |
| JEL: | O30 O33 D57 O47 L86 L23 |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2432 |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Janser, Markus; Lehmer, Florian; Vonnahme, Christina |
| Abstract: | Using a text-mining approach applied to task descriptions of occupations together with worker-level administrative data, we explore the growth in the greenness of employment in Germany between 2012 and 2022. We first show that the greening of occupations over time ("within-effect") is as important for the overall greening of employment as shifting occupational employment shares ("between-effect"). Second, we examine which occupations and task types contribute most to the within-effect, and which worker flows are mainly responsible for the between-effect. Third, we demonstrate that the employment prospects of foreign and of low-skilled workers are most at risk from the green transition. |
| Abstract: | In diesem Papier untersuchen wir die Entwicklung der ökologischen Transformation auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt zwischen 2012 und 2022. Wir zeigen zunächst, dass diese Entwicklung sowohl durch eine Zunahme umwelt- bzw. klimaschutzbezogener beruflicher Tätigkeiten als auch durch einen Rückgang von umwelt-/klimaschädlichen Tätigkeiten erfolgt. Darüber hinaus ist diese Veränderung innerhalb von Berufen im Laufe der Zeit ('Within-Effekt") mindestens ebenso wichtig für die Gesamttransformation der Beschäftigung wie die Verschiebung von Beschäftigungsanteilen zwischen Berufen ('Between-Effekt"). Zweitens zeigen wir, welche Berufe und welche Tätigkeiten ('brown" oder 'green") am meisten zum Within-Effekt beitragen und welche Beschäftigtenflüsse hauptsächlich für den Between-Effekt verantwortlich sind. Drittens untersuchen wir die Folgen der ökologischen Transformation der Beschäftigung auf individueller Ebene. Wir stellen fest, dass die Beschäftigungsaussichten von Menschen mit ausländischer Staatsangehörigkeit und gering qualifizierten Beschäftigten am stärksten durch die ökologische Transformation gefährdet sind, was wiederum bestehende Ungleichheiten auf dem Arbeitsmarkt verstärken kann. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, job tasks, occupational mobility, worker flows |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 Q55 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306826 |
| By: | Falck, Oliver; Guo, Yuchen; Langer, Christina; Lindlacher, Valentin; Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | Job training is widely regarded as crucial for protecting workers from automation, yet there is a lack of empirical evidence to support this belief. Using internationally harmonized data from over 90, 000 workers across 37 industrialized countries, we construct an individual-level measure of automation risk based on tasks performed at work. Our analysis reveals substantial within-occupation variation in automation risk, overlooked by existing occupation-level measures. To assess whether job training mitigates automation risk, we exploit within-occupation and within-industry variation. Additionally, we employ entropy balancing to re-weight workers without job training based on a rich set of background characteristics, including tested numeracy skills as a proxy for unobserved ability. We find that job training reduces workers' automation risk by 4.7 percentage points, equivalent to 10 percent of the average automation risk. The training-induced reduction in automation risk accounts for one-fifth of the wage returns to job training. Job training is effective in reducing automation risk and increasing wages across nearly all countries, underscoring the external validity of our findings. Women tend to benefit more from training than men, with the advantage becoming particularly pronounced at older ages. |
| Keywords: | automation, entropy balancing, human capital, job training, technological change |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:308050 |
| By: | Becerra, Oscar (Universidad de los Andes); Piñeros, Juana (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the green transition on the Colombian labor market. Using a task-based approach and data from the 2022 Colombian Household Survey, we find that approximately 22.6% of Colombian employment is linked to green tasks, with 15.9% directly affected by the green transition. While these figures are in line with global estimates, most jobs will not change significantly. Green jobs are concentrated among men, urban residents, and higher-educated workers with STEM degrees in managerial roles, who also earn more and are located at the top of the income distribution. In addition, the tasks and skills of occupations of workers with a lower prevalence of jobs limit their mobility to green jobs. This suggests a need for targeted training programs to facilitate the transition of non-green workers to green occupations, given the limited transferability of skills between these types of jobs. |
| Keywords: | Green jobs; energy transition; task-based approach; Colombia |
| JEL: | J24 O13 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021270 |