|
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | Benjamin Schneider; Hillary Vipond |
| Abstract: | Debates about the future of work frequently reference past instances of transformative innovation to preface analysis of how automation and artificial intelligence could reshape society and the economy. However, technological shifts in history are rarely considered in depth or used to improve predictions and planning for the coming decades. In this paper we show that a deeper understanding of history can expand knowledge of possibilities and pitfalls for employment in the future. We open by demonstrating that evidence from historical events has been used to inform responses to present-day challenges. We argue that history provides the only way to analyze the long-term impacts of technological change, and that the scale of the First Industrial Revolution may make it the only precedent for emerging transformations. Next, we present an overview of the current debates around the potential effects of impending labor-replacing innovation. We then summarize existing historical research on the causes and consequences of technological change and identify areas in which salient historical findings are overlooked. We close by proposing further research into past technological shocks that can enhance our understanding of work and employment in an automated future. |
| Keywords: | technological change, innovation, automation, future of work, technological unemployment, labor displacement |
| JEL: | J23 J64 J81 N31 N33 N71 N73 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10766&r=tid |
| By: | Janssen, Matthijs (Utrecht University); Wanzenböck, Iris (Utrecht University); Fünfschilling, Lea (CIRCLE, Lund University); Pontinakis, Dimitris (Joint Research Centre, Seville, European Commission) |
| Abstract: | There has been great interest in the rationales for transformative innovation policies (TIP), including those following a mission-oriented logic. However, few studies have investigated how public administration can effectively implement TIP. To study this, we first identify from existing literature four TIP governance tasks (creating legitimacy and leadership, coordination across levels/instruments/actors, reflexivity, resolving conflicts) and three distinct governance modes (administrative-, network-, system-oriented). In a comparative study, we then ask how the different governance modes shape the implementation of the TIP governance tasks, including the opportunities and boundaries related to a specific mode. Empirical insights are obtained from seven regional and national policy programmes across Europe with an ambition to promote system-wide transformation. Our analysis highlights similarities and differences between transformative policy designs, and identifies challenges related to implementing the TIP tasks within certain modes. The findings serve to inform and inspire the further uptake of transformative and mission-oriented innovation policies. |
| Keywords: | innovation policy; societal challenges; governance; public administration; transitions |
| JEL: | O32 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2023–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2023_013&r=tid |
| By: | Bazzana, Davide; Comincioli, Nicola; Gusperti, Camilla; Legrenzi, Demis; Rizzati, Massimiliano; Vergalli, Sergio |
| Abstract: | Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) stands as a pivotal technology crucial for achieving the most ambitious climate objectives. Despite its prominent inclusion in energy mix projections, its current deployment falls short of the requisite level. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding future developments pose potential obstacles to its optimal diffusion. This study addresses two primary shortcomings that could impede the widespread adoption of CCUS. Firstly, it investigates how investments in CCUS technologies either compete with or complement other green research and development (R&D) activities. Secondly, it explores how the heterogeneity among different economies and the factors influencing the technology might lead to alternative configurations compared to the current trajectory. To address these issues, this study introduces CCUS into a regional Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) incorporating endogenous green R&D and heterogeneous cost functions. The model generates optimal pathways for both CCUS and green R&D, revealing a significant challenge: an insufficient valuation of R&D costs could potentially displace all investment in CCUS. Furthermore, the distribution of CCUS capital across regions by the end of the century necessitates substantial investments from regions with currently lower values, such as Europe and lower-income countries. This research underscores the imperative need for policies that mitigate uncertainties surrounding future technologies and coordinate contemporary state investments. Such policies are essential for CCUS to attain the envisaged contributions to emission reduction targets. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2023–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:338948&r=tid |
| By: | Leonardo M. Giuffrida; Emilio Raiteri; Leonardo Maria Giuffrida |
| Abstract: | Is work overload a friction to public agencies? Using data on R&D procurements, patents, and contracting units from a US federal agency, we investigate how officer workload impacts innovation procurement outcomes. Unanticipated retirement shifts provide an exogenous source of variation that we exploit as an instrument for workload. When workload declines, we find a significant increase in patent rates. One additional officer leads to a 28 percent increase in the probability that a contract will generate a patent. Our findings suggest that officers burdened with excessive workloads may not provide adequate guidance to R&D suppliers when it is most needed. |
| Keywords: | workload, procurement, bureaucrats, R&D, patents, instrumental variable |
| JEL: | D23 D73 H57 J24 O31 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10775&r=tid |
| By: | David Hémous; Simon Lepot; Thomas Sampson; Julian Schärer |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a first comprehensive quantitative analysis of optimal patent policy in the global economy. We introduce a new framework, which combines trade and growth theory into a tractable tool for quantitative research. Our application delivers three main results. First, the potential gains from international cooperation over patent policies are large. Second, only a small share of these gains has been realized so far. And third, the WTO’s TRIPS agreement has been counterproductive, slightly reducing welfare in the Global South and for the world. Overall, there is substantial scope for policy reform. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, innovation, growth, patents, TRIPS |
| JEL: | F13 D43 O34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10777&r=tid |
| By: | Keraga, Mezid N. (Addis Ababa University); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the question of whether innovation expands or reduces employment using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (ES) for six African economies. The results of the difference-in-differences estimations combined with propensity score matching confirm that both product and process innovations significantly expand job opportunities in Africa. In addition, the findings show significant intra-industry innovation spillover effects on employment. In sum, this study supports the view that innovation enhances employment in the analyzed African economies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Employment; Sub-Saharan; Spillover effects; DID; Matching approach |
| JEL: | J20 O30 |
| Date: | 2023–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0494&r=tid |
| By: | Yanfei Li (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Jia Zhao (Hunan University of Technology and Business); Jianjun Yan (Hunan University of Technology and Business) |
| Abstract: | Currently, major economies are competing on the technological and industrial development of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This paper discusses the relationship between the patent value of FCEVs and the commercialisation of this technology. First, the patent data of FCEVs are analysed, focusing on data of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States. Then, the paper constructs the FCEV patent value index framework based on the technological value and economic value of patents. Finally, this paper conducts an empirical study to analyse the influence of patent value on the development of the FCEV industry. It is found that, under the current situation, individual patent value can significantly promote the development of the FCEV industry, whilst the gross patent value of a certain country even has a negative impact. In addition, the increase of hydrogen infrastructure, research and development expenditure, and market demand will significantly promote the development of the FCEV industry. The development level of related industries such as the battery electric vehicle industry and the reduction of environmental pollution are also significant drivers of the development of FCEVs |
| Keywords: | FCEV, patent value, industry development |
| Date: | 2023–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-05&r=tid |
| By: | CAPPELLANO Francesco; MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC); DOTTI Nicola Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper provides quantitative evidence on the geography of regional readiness to tackle climate change using data from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain. Following Cappellano et al. (2022), we estimate a composite indicator that reports the situation of regions in these countries between 2009 and 2020 regarding the directionality of their Science and Technological Innovation and policy priorities to fight climate change. Using regression analysis, we assess the relationship between such directionality and the degree of risk of disasters (coastal floods, river floods, and landslides) they face in the short, medium, and long-term as a result of climate change effects. Results shows a positive relationship between estimated risk projection and climate change preparedness. However, a more in-depth analysis demonstrates the complexity of such geographical “problem-solution convergence”. Indeed, more developed regions are the ones that appear more ready to tackle climate change effects compared with transition and less developed regions. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Innovation; Public Policy; Regional Economics; Europe |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202310&r=tid |
| By: | Karina Doorley; Jan Gromadzki; Piotr Lewandowski; Dora Tuda; Philippe Van Kerm |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of robot penetration on household income inequality in 14 European countries between 2006–2018, a period marked by the rapid adoption of industrial robots. We establish that, similarly to the United States, automation reduced relative hourly wages and employment of directly affected demographic groups in Europe. We then use the estimated wage and employment shocks as input to the EUROMOD microsimulation model to assess how robot-driven shocks affected household income inequality. Automation had very small effects on income inequality. Household risk-sharing and tax and welfare policies largely absorbed wage and employment shocks caused by automation. |
| Keywords: | robots, automation, tasks, income inequality, wage inequality, microsimulation |
| JEL: | J24 O33 J23 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp062023&r=tid |
| By: | Mr. Damien Capelle; Mr. Divya Kirti; Mr. Nicola Pierri; Mr. German Villegas Bauer |
| Abstract: | Using self-reported data on emissions for a global sample of 4, 000 large, listed firms, we document large heterogeneity in environmental performance within the same industry and country. Laggards—firms with high emissions relative to the scale of their operations—are larger, operate older physical capital stocks, are less knowledge intensive and productive, and adopt worse management practices. To rationalize these findings, we build a novel general equilibrium heterogeneous-firm model in which firms choose capital vintages and R&D expenditure and hence emissions. The model matches the full empirical distribution of firm-level heterogeneity among other moments. Our counter-factual analysis shows that this heterogeneity matters for assessing the macroeconomic costs of mitigation policies, the channels through which policies act, and their distributional effects. We also quantify the gains from technology transfers to EMDEs. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Productivity; Technology Adoption; Capital Vintages; Emissions |
| Date: | 2023–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/242&r=tid |
| By: | Antonio Andreoni (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Guendalina Anzolin (Centre for Science, Technology and Innovation Policy, Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge); Mateus Labrunje (Centre of Development Studies and Cambridge Industrial Innovation Policy, University of Cambridge); Danilo Spinola (College of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Birmingham City Business School; Maastricht Economic Research Institute for Innovation and Technology (UNU-Merit); and South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | This research pioneers the construction of a novel Digital Production Technology Classification (DPTC) based on the latest Harmonised Commodity Description and Coding System (HS2017) of the World Customs Organisation. The DPTC enables the identification and comprehensive analysis of 127 tradable products associated with digital production technologies (DPTs). The development of this classification offers a substantial contribution to empirical research and policy analysis. It enables an extensive exploration of international trade in DPTs, such as the identification of emerging trade networks comprising final goods, intermediate components, and instrumentation technologies and the intricate regional and geopolitical dynamics related to DPTs. In this paper, we deploy our DPTC within a network analysis methodological framework to analyse countries' engagements with DPTs through bilateral and multilateral trade. By comparing the trade networks in DPTs in 2012 and 2019, we unveil dramatic shifts in the global DPTs' network structure, different countries' roles, and their degree of centrality. Notably, our findings shed light on China's expanding role and the changing trade patterns of the USA in the digital technology realm. The analysis also brings to the fore the increasing significance of Southeast Asian countries, revealing the emergence of a regional hub within this area, characterised by dense bilateral networks in DPTs. Furthermore, our study points to the fragmented network structures in Europe and the bilateral dependencies that developed there. Being the first systematic DPTC, also deployed within a network analysis framework, we expect the classification to become an indispensable tool for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in research on digitalisation and digital industrial policy. |
| Keywords: | Digital Production Technology (DPT), DPT Classification, Network Analysis, Bilateral Trade, Digitalisation patterns. |
| JEL: | O14 O33 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:261&r=tid |
| By: | Brandt, Loren; Van Biesebroeck, Johannes; Wang, Luhang; Zhang, Yifan |
| Abstract: | China's manufacturing sector has been a key source of the economy's dynamism. Analysis after 2007 however is hampered by problems in the key data source for empirical analysis, the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) annual survey of industrial firms. Issues include missing information on value added and intermediate inputs, and concerns of over-reporting. The annual survey of firms conducted by China's State Taxation Administration (STA) provides a reliable, alternative source of firm-level data for years from 2007 to 2013. Since the sample is not representative and the precise sampling scheme is not known, the data cannot be used directly to draw inferences on China's manufacturing sector. By comparing the joint distribution of key variables for which both surveys provide reasonably reliable information, we recover the sampling scheme of the STA survey and use it to simulate samples for 2007 to 2013 that are comparable to the NBS sample in earlier years. Our estimates reveal a marked slowdown in revenue-based total factor productivity growth that cuts across all industries, ownership types, and regions. The loss of dynamism in the private sector, and the reduced contribution of firm entry to aggregate productivity growth are especially prominent. |
| Keywords: | TFP, Industrial development, Economic growth |
| JEL: | D24 O14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:280407&r=tid |