nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2023‒10‒23
ten papers chosen by
Fulvio Castellacci, Universitetet i Oslo

  1. Environmental Policies and Innovation in Renewable Energy By Luca Bettarelli; Davide Furceri; Pietro Pizzuto; Nadia Shakoor
  2. Growth and Innovation in the Modern Data Economy By Orlando Gomes; Roxana Mihet; Kumar Rishabh
  3. The Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Robot Hubs in U.S. Manufacturing Establishments By Erik Brynjolfsson; Catherine Buffington; Nathan Goldschlag; J. Frank Li; Javier Miranda; Robert Seamans
  4. AI Adoption in America: Who, What, and Where By Kristina McElheran; J. Frank Li; Erik Brynjolfsson; Zachary Krof; Emin Dinlersoz; Lucia Foster; Nikolas Zolas
  5. Patents, Innovation, and Market Entry By Dominik Jurek
  6. Agglomeration and human capital: an extended spatial Mankiw-Romer-Weil model for European regions By Alicia Gómez-Tello; María-José Murgui-García; María-Teresa Sanchis-Llopis
  7. Climate Policies, Labor Markets, and Macroeconomic Outcomes in Emerging Economies By Finkelstein-Shapiro, Alan; Nuguer, Victoria
  8. Technology and Development: An Exploration of the Data By Charles Kenny; George Yang
  9. Beyond Citations: Text-Based Metrics for Assessing Novelty and its Impact in Scientific Publications By Sam Arts; Nicola Melluso; Reinhilde Veugelers
  10. Monetary Policy and Innovation By Yueran Ma; Kaspar Zimmermann

  1. By: Luca Bettarelli; Davide Furceri; Pietro Pizzuto; Nadia Shakoor
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of Climate Change Policies (CCPs) on green innovation, for a sample of 40 advanced and emerging market economies and 5 economic sectors, during the period 2000-2021. Our results suggest that CCPs increase green patents, with the effect increasing gradually over time. The effect is larger for non-market-based policies—such as R&D subsidies—and technology-support instruments, in countries with greater competitiveness and during periods of stronger economic activity—that is, higher GDP growth, lower uncertainty and financial stress. The results based on a difference-in-differences approach suggest that the positive effect of stricter CCPs on green innovation is stronger in sectors with limited financial constraints.
    Keywords: green patents; climate change policy; diff-in-diff approach; innovation
    Date: 2023–09–01
  2. By: Orlando Gomes (Lisbon Accounting and Business School); Roxana Mihet (University of Lausanne, Swiss Finance Institute and CEPR); Kumar Rishabh (University of Basel and University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: In this paper, we formulate a growth model of the data economy, highlighting data's dual role as a business optimization tool and a cybercrime target. We investigate the impact of cybercrime on firm innovation and economic growth, finding that it unequivocally leads to reduced knowledge stocks, decreased productivity, and slower overall economic growth for all firms. However, there is a silver lining: cybercrime risk prompts data-intensive companies to pursue digital innovation, enhancing productivity in other domains. We observe increased R&D, patenting, and patent diversity in response to higher cyber risk, especially among data-intensive firms. Non-data-intensive firms do not exhibit increased general innovation in response to cyber risk. Notably, in-house cybersecurity innovation sustains this cycle, while third-party cybersecurity delegation lacks the same innovation benefits.
    Keywords: Data economy, data theft, data breaches, cyber-risk, growth, artificial intelligence, innovation
    JEL: D8 O3 O4 G3 L1 L2 M1
    Date: 2023–09
  3. By: Erik Brynjolfsson (Stanford University and NBER); Catherine Buffington (U.S. Census Bureau); Nathan Goldschlag (U.S. Census Bureau); J. Frank Li (Stanford University); Javier Miranda (Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and Friedrich-Schiller University Jena); Robert Seamans (New York University)
    Abstract: We use data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geography of investments in robots across U.S. manufacturing establishments. We find that robotics adoption and robot intensity (the number of robots per employee) is much more strongly related to establishment size than age. We find that establishments that report having robotics have higher capital expenditures, including higher information technology (IT) capital expenditures. Also, establishments are more likely to have robotics if other establishments in the same Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and industry also report having robotics. The distribution of robots is highly skewed across establishments’ locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presence of robot integrators and higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub.
    Keywords: robot, technology adoption, manufacturing, labor
    Date: 2023–10–05
  4. By: Kristina McElheran; J. Frank Li; Erik Brynjolfsson; Zachary Krof; Emin Dinlersoz; Lucia Foster; Nikolas Zolas
    Abstract: We study the early adoption and diffusion of five AI-related technologies (automated-guided vehicles, machine learning, machine vision, natural language processing, and voice recognition) as documented in the 2018 Annual Business Survey of 850, 000 firms across the United States. We find that fewer than 6% of firms used any of the AI-related technologies we measure, though most very large firms reported at least some AI use. Weighted by employment, average adoption was just over 18%. Among dynamic young firms, AI use was highest alongside more-educated, more-experienced, and younger owners, including owners motivated by bringing new ideas to market or helping the community. AI adoption was also more common in startups displaying indicators of high-growth entrepreneurship, such as venture capital funding, recent innovation, and growth-oriented business strategies. Adoption was far from evenly spread across America: a handful of “superstar” cities and emerging technology hubs led startups’ use of AI. These patterns of early AI use foreshadow economic and social impacts far beyond its limited initial diffusion, with the possibility of a growing “AI divide” if early patterns persist.
    Date: 2023–09
  5. By: Dominik Jurek
    Abstract: Do patents facilitate market entry and job creation? Using a 2014 Supreme Court decision that limited patent eligibility and natural language processing methods to identify invalid patents, I find that large treated firms reduce job creation and create fewer new establishments in response, with no effect on new firm entry. Moreover, companies shift toward innovation aimed at improving existing products consistent with the view that patents incentivize creative destruction.
    Keywords: intellectual property rights, creative destruction, entry, job creation, Alice decision, natural language processing
    Date: 2023–09
  6. By: Alicia Gómez-Tello (University of Valencia); María-José Murgui-García; María-Teresa Sanchis-Llopis
    Abstract: Over the last two decades a handful of very rich European regions have increased the gap separating them from the European average in terms of labour productivity. In this paper we extend a spatial version of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil model (MRW, 1992) as developed by Fischer (2011) to accommodate human capital spillovers linked to agglomeration. After modelling this specific spillover, we go on to test empirically whether its effect has been to stimulate labour productivity growth in those European regions with the greatest potential to benefit from agglomeration economies. The theoretical model leads to a cross-sectional spatial Durbin model specification. The empirical analysis is carried out for 121 European regions for the period 1995-2014. We find significant conditional b-convergence, positive impacts of investment in physical and human capital, and a negative impact of population growth. Our most notable result involves the specific spillover effect that enhances the impact of investment in human capital in the most highly agglomerated regions. We find this externality significant in explaining labour productivity growth and therefore also in increasing labour productivity disparities across European regions.
    Keywords: Human capital, labour productivity, spatial externalities, European region
    JEL: R
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Finkelstein-Shapiro, Alan; Nuguer, Victoria
    Abstract: We study the labor market and macroeconomic effects of introducing a carbon tax in the energy sector in emerging economies (EMEs) by building a framework with equilibrium unemployment and firm entry that incorporates key elements of the distinct employment and firm structure of EMEs. Our model endogenizes the adoption of green energy-production technologies--a core element of policy discussions regarding the transition to a low-carbon economy. Calibrating the model to EME data, we show that a carbon tax fosters greater green technology adoption and increases the share of green energy produced. However, the tax leads to higher energy prices, which reduce salaried firm creation and formal employment and increase self-employment, labor participation, and unemployment. As a result, the tax generates output and welfare losses. Green technology adoption plays a key role in limiting the quantitative magnitude of these losses, while the response of self-employment is crucial to explaining the adverse labor market and macroeconomic effects of the policy. Given this finding, we show that a carbon tax coupled with a plausible reduction in the cost of becoming a formal firm can offset the adverse effects of the tax and generate a transition to a lower-carbon economy with minimal economic costs. Finally, we show that lowering green-technology adoption costs or the cost of green-energy production inputs--two alternative climate policies--reduces emissions while limiting the output and welfare costs compared to a carbon tax.
    Keywords: Environmental and fiscal policy;carbon taxes;Endogenous firm creation;Green technology adoption;Search frictions;Unemployment;Labor force par ticipation;Informality and self-employment;Emerging economies
    JEL: E20 E24 E61 H23 J46 J64 O44 Q52 Q55
    Date: 2023–04
  8. By: Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development); George Yang (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: We present data on the global diffusion of technologies over time, updating and adding to Comin and Mestieri’s "CHAT" database. We analyze usage primarily based on per capita measures and divide technologies into the two broad categories of production and consumption. We conclude that there has been strong convergence in use of consumption technologies with somewhat slower and more partial convergence in production technologies. This reflects considerably stronger global convergence in quality of life than in income, but we note that universal convergence in use of production technologies is not required for income convergence (only that countries are approaching the technology frontier in the goods and services that they produce).
    Keywords: Technology, Diffusion, Dataset
    JEL: O33 O47 F02
    Date: 2022–05–20
  9. By: Sam Arts; Nicola Melluso; Reinhilde Veugelers
    Abstract: We use text mining to identify the origin and impact of new scientific ideas in the population of scientific papers from Microsoft Academic Graph (MAG). We validate the new techniques and their improvement over the traditional metrics based on citations. First, we collect scientific papers linked to Nobel prizes. These papers arguably introduced fundamentally new scientific ideas with a major impact on scientific progress. Second, we identify literature review papers which typically summarize prior scientific findings rather than pioneer new scientific insights. Finally, we illustrate that papers pioneering new scientific ideas are more likely to become highly cited. Our findings support the use of text mining both to measure novel scientific ideas at the time of publication and to measure the impact of these new ideas on later scientific work. Moreover, the results illustrate the significant improvement of the new text metrics over the traditional metrics based on paper citations. We provide open access to code and data for all scientific papers in MAG up to December 2020.
    Date: 2023–09
  10. By: Yueran Ma; Kaspar Zimmermann
    Abstract: We document that monetary policy has a substantial impact on innovation activities. After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development (R&D) spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3 years. Patenting in important technologies, as well as a patent-based aggregate innovation index, declines by up to 9 percent in the following 2 to 4 years. Based on previous estimates of the sensitivity of output to innovation activities, these magnitudes imply that output could be 1 percent lower after another 5 years. Monetary policy can influence innovation activities by changing aggregate demand and correspondingly the profitability of innovation, and by changing financial market conditions. Both channels appear relevant in the data. Our findings suggest that monetary policy may affect the productive capacity of the economy in the longer term, in addition to the well-recognized near-term effects on economic outcomes.
    JEL: E2 E5 G31 O3
    Date: 2023–09

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