nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2023‒06‒26
eight papers chosen by
Fulvio Castellacci
Universitetet i Oslo

  1. The Kaldor-Verdoorn Law at the Age of Robots and AI. By Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
  2. Innovation and the Labor Market: Theory, Evidence and Challenges By Corrocher, Nicoletta; Moschella, Daniele; Staccioli, Jacopo; Vivarelli, Marco
  3. Regional Eco-Innovation Trajectories By Hendrik Hansmeier; Sebastian Losacker;
  4. PERSISTENCE OF R&D INTENSITIES IN THE WORLD'S TOP INVESTORS IN R&D By Claudia Pigini; Alessandro Sterlacchini; Francesco Valentini
  5. A Crosswalk from the Business R&D and Innovation Survey (BRDIS) and the Survey of Industrial Research and Development (SIRD) to the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and the Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL) By Assa Cohen
  6. Innovation, localized externalities, and the British Industrial Revolution, 1700-1850 By Ugo M. Gragnolati; Alessandro Nuvolari
  7. Sprouting Cities: How Rural America Industrialized By Eckert, Fabian; Juneau, John; Peters, Michael
  8. Skill mismatch and the costs of job displacement By Neffke, Frank; Nedelkoska, Ljubica; Wiederhold, Simon

  1. By: Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature around the Kaldor-Verdoorn law and analyses the impact of robotisation on the channel through which the law shapes labour-productivity growth. We start with a simple evolutionary interpretation of the law that combines Kaldorian and Post-Keynesian arguments with the neo-Schumpeterian theory of innovation and technological change. Then we apply a GMM estimator to a panel of 17 industries in 25 OECD capitalist economies for the period 1990-2018. After elaborating on the general evidence of the Kaldor-Verdoorn law in the sample, we investigate the effect of increasing robotisation. The estimates suggest that for industries with a higher-than-average robot density, the increasing adoption of robots weakens, at least, the meso-economic channel that relates productivity growth to mechanisation. Yet, the higher degree of robotisation strengthens the mechanism that links labour productivity growth at the industrial level to the macro-level dynamic increasing returns to scale that emerge from a general expansion of economic activities through the many interactions between sectors. Such results are in agreement with the empirical literature that suggests different impacts from robotisation on the basis of the level of economic activity considered.
    Keywords: Labour productivity, Kaldor-Verdoorn law, Robotisation, GMM.
    JEL: J23 O33 O47
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Corrocher, Nicoletta (Bocconi University); Moschella, Daniele (Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies); Staccioli, Jacopo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vivarelli, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the complex relationship between innovation and the labor market, analyzing the impact of new technological advancements on overall employment, skills and wages. After a critical review of the extant literature and the available empirical studies, novel evidence is presented on the distribution of labor-saving automation (namely robotics and AI), based on natural language processing of US patents. This mapping shows that both upstream high-tech providers and downstream users of new technologies—such as Boeing and Amazon—lead the underlying innovative effort.
    Keywords: innovation, technological change, skills, wages, technological unemployment
    JEL: O33
    Date: 2023–05
  3. By: Hendrik Hansmeier; Sebastian Losacker;
    Abstract: Given that eco-innovations and the associated renewal of economic structures are pivotal in addressing environmental problems, economic geography research is increasingly focusing on their spatio-temporal dynamics. While green technological and industrial path developments in specific regions have received considerable attention, little effort has been made to derive general patterns of environmental inventive activities across regions. Drawing on unique data capturing both green incumbent and green start-up activities in the 401 German NUTS-3 regions over the period 1997-2018, this article aims to trace and compare the long-term green regional development. For this purpose, we introduce social sequence analysis methods to economic geography that allow us to understand the constitution of regional eco-innovation trajectories. The findings suggest that regions mainly display distinct trajectories. Yet, structural similarities emerge in the sense that regions of the same type occur in spatial proximity to each other and show persistent specialization patterns. These range from the simultaneous presence or absence of green incumbents and green start-ups to the dominance of just one of the two groups of actors. Only some regions manage to establish an above-average eco-innovation specialization over time. Since this greening originates from either green incumbent or green start-up specialization, green regional trajectories can be assumed to unfold mainly in a path dependent and less radical manner. In summary, this study provides important empirical and methodological impulses for further in-depth analyses to disentangle spatio-temporal phenomena in economic geography.
    Keywords: eco-innovation, green regional development, path dependency, regional transitions, social sequence analysis
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Claudia Pigini (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Alessandro Sterlacchini (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Francesco Valentini (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche)
    Abstract: There is extensive empirical evidence of a within-sector heterogeneity in terms of firms' R&D intensity (share of expenditures on sales) which, moreover, does not converge to a common level over time. Using a balanced panel of the world's top R&D investors, we first investigate whether there is a different degree of time persistence along the R&D intensity distribution. Secondly, we analyse whether the persistence in and the transition to different levels are heterogeneous between four R&D-intensive sectors. As a general result, we find that companies starting with low R&D intensities are more likely to move towards the sector medium levels than those exerting a high innovative effort, which persist in the right tail of the distribution. With the exception of the Pharmaceutical sector, company size affects negatively (positively) the persistence and the entry rate into the top (bottom) 20% of the R&D intensity distribution. Differences across sectors emerge with respect to the impact of other company characteristics (profitability, capital investment, and location).
    Keywords: Innovation persistence, R&D intensity, High-tech sectors, Large companies.
    JEL: O3 L2
    Date: 2023–06
  5. By: Assa Cohen
    Abstract: The Survey of Industrial Research and Development (SIRD) and the Business R&D and Innovation Survey (BRDIS) provide a rich description of R&D at the firm-level. Unfortunately, linking BRDIS and SIRD to other Census data is not straightforward. Standard Census identifiers are often missing, while the identifiers used in BRDIS-SIRD are different in format than those used in other data sets like Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and the Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL). In this project we develop a new crosswalk to address the problem. The crosswalk assigns to each firm-year pairs in BRDIS-SIRD the identifiers of corresponding observations in LBD or SSEL. To generate the crosswalk, we: (i) Infer standard CES identifiers (FIRMID) from variables in SIRD. (ii) Map from BRDIS-SIRD to LBD, and from LBD to SSEL. (iii) Combine the results of multiple linkages, each using a different identifier. The crosswalk allows connecting BRDIS-SIRD with any Census collected data set that uses the identifiers applied in LBD and SSEL. Further, it allows creating links from BRDIS-SIRD to external data using names and addresses appearing in SSEL. In this context, it improves researchers’ ability to use tools that were developed by the Census to connect SSEL to patent data for assigning patents to firms in BRDIS-SIRD. That, in turn, facilitates further study of the relation between R&D activity, reported in BRDIS-SIRD, and innovation outputs, as they are reflected in patenting.
    Date: 2023–05
  6. By: Ugo M. Gragnolati; Alessandro Nuvolari
    Abstract: We study the determinants of the spatial distribution of patent inventors at the county level for Great Britain between 1700-1850. Our empirical analysis rests on the localization model by Bottazzi et al. (2007) and on the related estimation procedure by Bottazzi and Gragnolati (2015). Such an approach helps in particular to discriminate the role of localized externalities against other descriptors of county attractiveness. Our results show that, while the underlying geography of production remained a strong determinant of inventor location all throughout the industrial revolution, the effect of localized externalities among patent inventors went from being nearly absent in the early phases of industrialization to becoming a major driver of inventor location. In particular, local interactions among the ''mass'' of generic inventors turn out to be at least as important as interactions with ''elite'' inventors.
    Keywords: Inventor location; Patents; Localized externalities; Industrial Revolution.
    Date: 2023–06–05
  7. By: Eckert, Fabian; Juneau, John; Peters, Michael
    Abstract: We study the joint process of urbanization and industrialization in the US economy between 1880 and 1940. We show that only a small share of aggregate industrialization is accounted for by the relocation of workers from remote rural areas to industrial hubs like Chicago or New York City. Instead, most sectoral shifts occurred within rural counties, dramatically transforming their sectoral structure. Most within-county industrialization occurred through the emergence of new “factory” cities with notably higher manufacturing shares rather than the expansion of incumbent cities. In contrast, today's shift toward services seems to benefit large incumbent cities the most.
    Keywords: Rural Health, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
    Date: 2023–05–01
  8. By: Neffke, Frank; Nedelkoska, Ljubica; Wiederhold, Simon
    Abstract: When workers are displaced from their jobs in mass layoffs or firm closures, they experience lasting adverse labor market consequences. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience when returning to the labor market. Using novel measures of skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze individuals' work histories in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate difference-in-differences models, using a sample in which we match displaced workers to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupational change eleven fold, and that the type of skill mismatch after displacement is strongly associated with the magnitude of post-displacement earnings losses. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the counterfactual earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings.
    Keywords: difference-in-differences, job displacement, occupational change, skill mismatch
    JEL: J24 J31 J63 O33
    Date: 2023

This nep-tid issue is ©2023 by Fulvio Castellacci. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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