nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2022‒05‒16
fifteen papers chosen by
Fulvio Castellacci
Universitetet i Oslo

  1. The rise of process claims: Evidence from a century of U.S. patents By Ganglmair, Bernhard; Robinson, W. Keith; Seeligson, Michael
  2. Data Production and the coevolving AI trajectories: An attempted evolutionary model. By Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
  3. Government R&D spending as a driving force of technology convergence By ZHU Chen; MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki
  4. Economic crisis accelerates urban structural change via inter-sectoral labour mobility By STRAULINO Daniel; DIODATO Dario; O'CLERY Neave
  5. Technology Transfer in Global Value Chains By Thomas Sampson
  6. Robots and women in manufacturing employment By Zuazu-Bermejo, Izaskun
  7. Computerization of White Collar Jobs By Marcus Dillender; Eliza Forsythe
  8. Are Ideas Really Getting Harder to Find? By Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G.
  9. Climate change affectedness and innovation in German firms By Horbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian
  10. On Labor Productivity Growth and the Wage Share with Endogenous Size and Direction of Technical Change By Zamparelli, Luca
  11. Some New Views on Product Space and Related Diversification By \"Onder Nomaler; Bart Verspagen
  12. The role of Venture Capital and Governments in Clean Energy: Lessons from the First Cleantech Bubble By Matthias van den Heuvel; David Popp
  13. The spillover effect of neighboring port on regional industrial diversification and regional economic resilience By Jung-In Yeon; Sojung Hwang; Bogang Jun
  14. The rule of law and investment in intangible capital: Evidence for the EU-16, 1996-2017 By Roth, Felix
  15. The Education-Innovation Gap By Barbara Biasi; Song Ma

  1. By: Ganglmair, Bernhard; Robinson, W. Keith; Seeligson, Michael
    Abstract: We document the occurrence of process claims in granted U.S. patents over the last century. Using novel data on the type of independent patent claims, we show an increase in the annual share of process claims of about 25 percentage points (from below 10% in 1920). This rise in process intensity is not limited to a few patent classes but can be observed across a broad spectrum of technologies. Process intensity varies by applicant type: companies file more process-intense patents than individuals, and U.S. applicants file more process-intense patents than foreign applicants. We further show that patents with higher process intensity are more valuable but are not necessarily cited more often. Last, process claims are on average shorter than product claims; but this gap has narrowed since the 1970s. These patterns suggest that the patent breadth and scope of process-intense patents are overestimated when claim types are not accounted for. We conclude by describing in detail the code used to construct the claim-type data, showing results from a data-validation exercise (using close to 10,000 manually classified patent claims), and providing guidance for researchers on how to alter the classification outcome to adapt to researchers' needs.
    Keywords: innovation,patent claims,patents,patent breadth,patent scope,process claims,process intensity,R&D,text analysis
    JEL: C81 O31 O34 Y10
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the understanding of the relationship between the nature of data and the Artificial Intelligence (AI) technological trajectories. We develop an agentbased model in which firms are data producers that compete on the markets for data and AI. The model is enriched by a public sector that fuels the purchase of data and trains the scientists that will populate firms as workforce. Through several simulation experiments we analyze the determinants of each market structure, the corresponding relationships with innovation attainments, the pattern followed by labour and data productivity, and the quality of data traded in the economy. More precisely, we question the established view in the literature on industrial organization according to which technological imperatives are enough to experience divergent industrial dynamics on both the markets for data and AI blueprints. Although technical change behooves if any industry pattern is to emerge, the actual unfolding is not the outcome of a specific technological trajectory, but the result of the interplay between technology-related factors and the availability of data-complementary inputs such as labour and AI capital, the market size, preferences and public policies.
    Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Data Markets, Industrial Dynamics, Agent-based Models.
    JEL: L10 L60 O33 O38
    Date: 2022
  3. By: ZHU Chen; MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of government R&D spending on promoting technology convergence. We test the hypotheses that a government funding program has a positive effect on technology convergence and the effects are heterogenous on different participants (i.e., academic, and industrial inventors). To investigate this, our empirical test applies the Advanced Sequencing Technology Program (ASTP) as one example. We develop a novel dataset by linking the ASTP grantee information with the PATSTAT patent database. Based on this, we create inventor-level characteristics to implement propensity score matching, selecting an appropriate control group of inventors who are comparable to those enrolled in the ASTP. We then employ DiD models to evaluate the impact of the program on the matched sample. The results confirm that the program is a driving force of technology convergence. The findings also indicate that the program is more influential to industry inventors than to their academic counterparts. Additionally, we conceptualize a ‘leverage effect’ of the program and show it can attract many external industrial inventors. The work contributes to better understanding the role of a government-funded program in encouraging convergence and providing implications for developing convergence-related R&D programs in the future.
    Date: 2022–04
  4. By: STRAULINO Daniel; DIODATO Dario (European Commission - JRC); O'CLERY Neave
    Abstract: Are recessions drivers of structural change? Here we investigate the resilience of cities, and argue that a re-allocation of labour between industrial sectors in times of crisis induces an acceleration in structural change. Using UK data, we find that cities experienced a sharp increase in inter-sectoral job transitions, and that local employment in skill-related sectors is most strongly associated with employment growth, during the recession, which we identify with the period of employment contraction between 2008 and 2011. This coincides with a massive but short-lived increase in the rate of structural change (i.e. the total change in employment shares of different industries) around 2009. These findings suggest that cities with skill-related sectors re-allocate workers in a crisis, thus inducing structural change.
    Keywords: Cities, resilience, financial crisis, labour markets, structural change, labour mobility
    Date: 2022–04
  5. By: Thomas Sampson
    Abstract: Firm-to-firm relationships in global value chains create opportunities for North-South technology diffusion. This paper studies technology transfer in value chains when contracts are incomplete and input production technologies are imperfectly excludable. The paper introduces a new taxonomy of value chains based on whether or not the headquarters firm benefits from imitation of its supplier’s technology. In inclusive value chains, where imitation is beneficial, the headquarters firm promotes technology diffusion. By contrast, in exclusive value chains headquarters seeks to limit supplier imitation. The paper analyzes how this distinction affects the returns to offshoring, the welfare effects of technical change and the social efficiency of knowledge sharing. Weaker intellectual property rights over input production technologies raise welfare when value chains are inclusive, but have the opposite effect under exclusive value chains.
    Keywords: technology transfer, global value chains, incomplete contracts, intellectual property rights, imitation
    JEL: D23 F10 F23 O34
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Zuazu-Bermejo, Izaskun
    Abstract: Automation transforms the combination of tasks performed by machines and humans, and reshapes existing labour markets by replacing jobs and creating new ones. The implications of these transformations are likely to differ by gender as women and men concentrate in different tasks and jobs. This article argues that a gender-biased technological change framework will advance our understanding of the differentiated role of robots in labour market outcomes of women and men. The article empirically analyses the impact of industrial robots in gender segregation and employment levels of women and men using an industry-level disaggregated panel dataset of 11 industries in 14 developed and developing countries during 1993-2015. Within fixed-effects and instrumental variables estimates suggest that robotization increases the share of women in manufacturing employment. However, this impact hinges upon female labour force participation. As female labour participation rate increases, robots are associated with a negative effect of robotization in the female share of manufacturing employment. Results also show that the impact of robotization varies at different levels of economic development. The estimates point to a reducing employment effects of robotization, although the effect for women is larger. The results are robust to a variety of various sensitivity checks.
    Keywords: gender-biased technological change,robotization,manufacturing employment,gender industrial segregation
    JEL: C23 F16 J16 F14
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Marcus Dillender; Eliza Forsythe
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of computerization of white-collar jobs on wages and employment. Using online job postings from 2007 and 2010--2016 for office and administrative support (OAS) jobs, we show that when firms adopt new software at the job-title level they increase the skills required of job applicants. Furthermore, firms change the task content of such jobs, broadening them to include tasks associated with higher-skill office functions. We aggregate these patterns to the local labor-market level, instrumenting for local technology adoption with national measures. We find that a 1 standard deviation increase in OAS technology usage reduces employment in OAS occupations by about 1 percentage point and increases wages for college graduates in OAS jobs by over 3 percent. We find negative wage spillovers, with wages falling for both workers with and without a college degree. These results are consistent with technological adoption inducing a realignment in task assignment across occupations, leading office support occupations to become higher skill. We argue relative wage gains for OAS workers indicates that factor-augmenting features of OAS technological change dominate task-substituting features. In addition, while we find that total employment increases, these gains primarily accrue to college-educated women.
    JEL: J23 J24 O33
    Date: 2022–03
  8. By: Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G.
    Abstract: Bloom et al. (2020) attribute the post-WWII slowdown in growth of U.S. TFP and other productivity measures to a decline in research productivity. A weakness in their approach is that the authors measure research productivity as the annual growth rate of industrial or economywide productivity divided by the number of researchers, contemporaneously. They give no consideration to the stock-flow relationships whereby current research effort gives rise to increments to a stock of depreciable knowledge and hence an evolving path of enhanced productivity over an extended but possibly finite future period. Using examples from agriculture, for which we have comparatively rich data, we revisit established ideas and evidence on links between research spending and productivity. On both conceptual and empirical grounds, we question whether the evidence supports the claim that a decline in productivity of researchers is responsible for the slowdown in productivity growth that has been observed, the large increases in numbers of scientists and in spending per scientist notwithstanding.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2022–04
  9. By: Horbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian
    Abstract: Eco-innovations are crucial for the mitigation of climate change effects. It is therefore important to know if the existing climate change regulations and carbon pricing are appropriate and sufficient to trigger such innovations. Besides government measures, the demand for carbon neutral products or the impacts of climate change such as extreme weather conditions leading to higher costs for the affected firms may also promote eco-innovation activities. For the first time, the new wave of the Community Innovation Survey 2020 in Germany allows an analysis of the effects of climate change policy and costs, demand for climate friendly goods and extreme weather conditions on (eco-)innovation. The results of probit and treatment effect models show that innovative firms seem to be significantly more affected by climate change measures and consequences compared to other firms. All climate change indicators are positively correlated to eco-innovations. Interestingly, other innovation activities also profit from the extent to which a firm is affected by climate change albeit the marginal effects are lower compared to eco-innovations. Demand for climate neutral products is significantly important for all eco-product-innovations.
    Keywords: Climate change,eco-innovation,Community Innovation Survey,probit regression,treatment effect models
    JEL: C25 C21 O31 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Zamparelli, Luca
    Abstract: This paper combines induced innovation and endogenous growth to investigate both the relation between the wage share and labor productivity growth and the long-run determinants of the wage share. We assume that myopic competitive firms choose the size and direction of technical change to maximize the growth rate of profits. We first prove that the optimal choice of labor productivity growth may be either a positive or a negative function of the wage share, depending on specific restrictions on the innovation technology. Next, by embedding the microeconomic problem into a Classical growth model, we show that a rise in the saving rate may reduce the steady state wage share. Both results conflict with the standard findings of the induced innovation literature, where labor productivity growth is always a positive function of the wage share and where the steady state labor share is independent of the saving rate.
    Keywords: Labor productivity growth, Induced innovation, wage share
    JEL: O30 O40
    Date: 2022–04
  11. By: \"Onder Nomaler; Bart Verspagen
    Abstract: We aim to contribute to the literature on product space and diversification by proposing a number of extensions of the current literature: (1) we propose that the alternative but related idea of a country space also has empirical and theoretical appeal; (2) we argue that the loss of comparative advantage should be an integral part of (testing the empirical relevance of) the product space idea; (3) we propose several new indicators for measuring relatedness in product space; and (4) we propose a non-parametric statistical test based on bootstrapping to test the empirical relevance of the product space idea.
    Date: 2022–03
  12. By: Matthias van den Heuvel; David Popp
    Abstract: After a boom and bust cycle in the early 2010s, venture capital (VC) investments are, once again, flowing towards green businesses. In this paper, we use Crunchbase data on 150,000 US startups founded between 2000 and 2020 to better understand why VC initially did not prove successful in funding new clean energy technologies. Both lackluster demand and a lower potential for outsized returns make clean energy firms less attractive to VC than startups in ICT or biotech. However, we find no clear evidence that characteristics such as high-capital intensity or long development timeframe are behind the lack of success of VC in clean energy. In addition, our results show that while public sector investments can help attract VC investment, the ultimate success rate of firms receiving public funding remains small. Thus, stimulating demand will have a greater impact on clean energy innovation than investing in startups that will then struggle through the “valley of death”. Rather than investing themselves in startups bound to struggle through the valleys of death, governments wishing to support clean energy startups can first implement demand-side policies that make investing in clean energy more viable.
    JEL: G24 Q40 Q48 Q55
    Date: 2022–04
  13. By: Jung-In Yeon; Sojung Hwang; Bogang Jun
    Abstract: We examine the spillover effect of neighboring ports on regional industrial diversification and their economic resilience using the export data of South Korea from 2006 to 2020. First, we build two distinct product spaces of ports and port regions, and provide direct estimates of the role of neighboring ports as spillover channels spatially linked. This is in contrast to the previous literature that mainly regarded ports as transport infrastructure per se. Second, we confirm that the knowledge spillover effect from neighboring ports had a non-negligible role in sustaining regional economies during the recovery after the economic crisis but its power has weakened recently due to a loosened global value chain.
    Date: 2022–03
  14. By: Roth, Felix
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between the rule of law (RoL) and intangible capital investment by businesses within a sample of 16 European countries, over the period from 1996 to 2017. Studies on the effects of RoL on intangible capital investment are scarce, hence, the relevance of empirical research in this area. When controlling for endogeneity, the study found a coefficient of 2.0 for the relationship between RoL and investment in intangibles, confirming the significant and positive relationship between the two and highlighting RoL as a driving factor of investment in intangibles and, hence, labour productivity growth in the EU-16.
    Keywords: rule of law (RoL),intangible capital investment,labour productivity growth,European Union (EU)
    JEL: E02 E22 O34 O43 O52 P14
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Barbara Biasi; Song Ma
    Abstract: This paper documents differences across higher-education courses in the coverage of frontier knowledge. Comparing the text of 1.7M syllabi and 20M academic articles, we construct the “education-innovation gap,” a syllabus’s relative proximity to old and new knowledge. We show that courses differ greatly in the extent to which they cover frontier knowledge. More selective and better funded schools, and those enrolling socio-economically advantaged students, teach more frontier knowledge. Instructors play a big role in shaping course content; research-active instructors teach more frontier knowledge. Students from schools teaching more frontier knowledge are more likely to complete a PhD, produce more patents, and earn more after graduation.
    Keywords: education, innovation, syllabi, instructors, text analysis, inequality
    JEL: I23 I24 I26 J24 O33
    Date: 2022

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