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on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | Acemoglu, Daron (MIT); Restrepo, Pascual (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence is set to influence every aspect of our lives, not least the way production is organized. AI, as a technology platform, can automate tasks previously performed by labor or create new tasks and activities in which humans can be productively employed. Recent technological change has been biased towards automation, with insufficient focus on creating new tasks where labor can be productively employed. The consequences of this choice have been stagnating labor demand, declining labor share in national income, rising inequality and lower productivity growth. The current tendency is to develop AI in the direction of further automation, but this might mean missing out on the promise of the "right" kind of AI with better economic and social outcomes. |
| Keywords: | automation, artificial intelligence, jobs, inequality, innovation, labor demand, productivity, tasks, technology, wages |
| JEL: | J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12704&r=all |
| By: | Gaétan de Rassenfosse (Chair of Innovation and IP Policy, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland); Jan Kozak; Florian Seliger (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | The dataset provides geographic coordinates for inventor and applicant locations in 18.8 million patent documents spanning over more than 30 years. The geocoded data are further allocated to the corresponding countries, regions and cities. When the address information was missing in the original patent document, we imputed it by using information from subsequent filings in the patent family. The resulting database can be used to study patenting activity at a fine-grained geographic level without creating bias towards the traditional, established patent offices. |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:19-458&r=all |
| By: | Rebecca Riley; Ana Rincon-Aznar; Lea Samek |
| Abstract: | We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK market sector. Average annual labour productivity growth was 2.5 percentage points lower during the period 2011-2015 than in the decade before the financial crisis that began in 2007. We find that several years on from the financial crisis stagnation remains widespread across detailed industry divisions, pointing to economy-wide explanations for the puzzle. With some exceptions, labour productivity growth lost most momentum in those industries that experienced strong growth before the crisis. Three fifths of the gap is accounted for by a few industries that together account for less than one fifth of market sector value added. In terms of why we observe continued stagnation, we find that capital shallowing has become increasingly important in explaining the labour productivity growth gap in service sectors, as the buoyancy of the UK labour market has not been sufficiently matched by investment, although our figures suggest that the majority of the productivity gap is accounted for by a TFP gap. The collapse in labour productivity growth has been more pronounced in the UK than elsewhere, but the broad sector patterns of productivity stagnation are in many respects similar across other advanced economies, emphasising the importance of global explanations for the puzzle. UK industries that saw the biggest reductions in productivity growth tended to be internationally competitive and more dependent on global demand than other industries. They were also industries where productivity is difficult to measure. |
| Keywords: | productivity, competitiveness, sector studies |
| JEL: | E22 E23 L60 L70 L80 L90 O47 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:508&r=all |
| By: | Uluc Aysun (Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida); Zeynep Yom (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that technology shocks have the largest impact on economies when industries adopt innovations of other industries at a high rate, if costs of adopting new technologies and adjusting R&D expenditures are low, and if innovators face a high degree of competition. It is not the level but the spillover of innovations across industries that is the key determinant of these findings. Under the conditions mentioned above, R&D becomes less procyclical and smoother along the business cycle yet R&D driven innovations have a larger impact on output since these innovations spillover at a higher rate. These inferences are drawn from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework describing a real economy with endogenous growth. The latter feature allows us to infer the welfare implications of R&D processes. |
| Keywords: | Research and development; spillover effects; endogenous growth |
| JEL: | E30 E32 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:43&r=all |
| By: | Barge-Gil, Andrés; López, Alberto; Núñez-Sánchez, Ramón |
| Abstract: | This paper is aims to identify genuine technological spillovers from multinational firms (MNEs). To this end, we use data on R&D from MNEs to measure spillovers, while most of the existing literature uses output to measure the foreign presence in an industry (what we call output-based spillovers). In line with the existing literature, we distinguish between horizontal spillovers (i.e., intra-industry linkages) and vertical spillovers (i.e., backward –or downstream– and forward –or upstream– inter-industry linkages). Our results show that the three types of technological spillovers from MNEs are positive, with the horizontal spillovers the larger ones, followed by backward spillovers. The effect of forward spillovers is much smaller in magnitude. Moreover, we find that not controlling for industry size (i.e., technological spillovers from all firms in an industry) leads to underestimating both horizontal and backward spillovers from MNEs, and to overestimating forward spillovers from MNEs. Finally, we find that the distinction between technological and output-based spillovers is of great relevance. The size of backward technological spillovers is approximately 44% of the size of output-based backward spillovers, while for horizontal spillovers both types of spillovers are quite similar. Importantly, output-based forward spillovers are negative while technological forward spillovers are positive. |
| Keywords: | technological spillovers; multinational firms; productivity; R&D |
| JEL: | F23 L53 O12 |
| Date: | 2019–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96662&r=all |
| By: | Alessandra Perri (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Daniela Silvestri (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Francesco Zirpoli (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the evolution of the knowledge base of the automotive industry. Over the last decades, the knowledge base of this industry has experienced major changes. New and originally unrelated fields have increasingly become relevant in the industry. Using data on utility patent families granted in the period 1990-2014, we map the knowledge base of the automotive industry by reconstructing and analyzing the innovative portfolio of the top firms operating in this industry. The analysis documents exploration in new technical fields as well as persistence in industry-specific technical areas, pointing to the relevance of core competences that might be difficult to accumulate for industry outsiders. |
| Keywords: | knowledge base evolution, automotive industry, patent analysis |
| JEL: | L62 O34 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:167&r=all |
| By: | Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Künn, Steffen (Maastricht University); Weissenberger, Martin (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | From an active labor market policy perspective, start-up subsidies for unemployed individuals are very effective in improving long-term labor market outcomes for participants. From a business perspective, however, the assessment of these public programs is less clear since they might attract individuals with low entrepreneurial abilities and produce businesses with low survival rates and little contribution to job creation, economic growth, and innovation. In this paper, we use a rich data set to compare participants of a German start-up subsidy program for unemployed individuals to a group of regular founders who started from non-unemployment and did not receive the subsidy. The data allows us to analyze their business performance up until 40 months after business formation. We find that formerly subsidized founders lag behind not only in survival and job creation, but especially also in innovation activities. The gaps in these business outcomes are relatively constant or even widening over time. Hence, we do not see any indication of catching up in the longer run. While the gap in survival can be entirely explained by initial differences in observable start-up characteristics, the gap in business development remains and seems to be the result of restricted access to capital as well as differential business strategies and dynamics. Considering these conflicting results for the assessment of the subsidy program from an ALMP and business perspective, policy makers need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of such a strategy to find the right policy mix. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, start-up subsidies, business growth, innovation, job creation |
| JEL: | L26 M13 J68 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12690&r=all |
| By: | Yasushi Hara (Hitotsubashi University, FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Akiyuki Tonogi (Toyo University); Konomi Tonogi (Rissho University) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates the impact of research and development (R&D) activity on product turnover from Point-of-Sales (POS) data. When measuring the inflation rate in an economy, the effects of quantitative changes, volume changes, and quality changes from nominal sales changes must be removed. In order to examine the effect of R&D activities on price changes from sales data, we implement an empirical combining three datasets: weekly POS data, patent database (IIP Patent DB) data, and Survey of Research and Development data. We use regression analysis with pooling and panel regression. We observe that while the effect of price increases due to the new product introduction can be related to R&D behavior a negative effect on the price of the incumbent product is also observed. In addition, the relative prices of new and incumbent products tended to be higher for companies with active R&D expenditures. We suggest that continuous R&D is necessary to keep introducing high value products while prices are under pressure. |
| Keywords: | POS Data,Unit Value Price,R&D,Patent Acquisition |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02318466&r=all |
| By: | Roberto Antonietti; Sandro Montresor |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) in the regional diversification of economic activities. We maintain that KETs drive different diversification trajectories, leading regions from the most conservative to the most radical pattern of diversification. Using an original dataset for Italian NUTS3 regions, we estimate a series of ordered logit models, in which a region’s propensity to move across industry diversification patterns depends on its KETs endowment. We find regions with more KETs better able to move towards more ‘unrelated’ diversification patterns, but only when KETs are combined with other technologies, and only in densely populated regions. |
| Keywords: | diversification patterns, Key Enabling Technologies, ordered logit |
| JEL: | R11 R58 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1928&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Grjebine; Jérôme Héricourt; Fabien Tripier |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of sectoral reallocations in the divergence of productivity in Europe, based on a database for 33 sectors and 14 countries between 1995 and 2015. Using the contribution of sectoral productivity growth to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) at the country level, we highlight that variations in the relative size of sectors - less productive sectors growing relatively to more productive ones - have been at the origin of variable productivity losses in main European countries. Parallel to this divergence, European countries experienced heterogeneous real estate price dynamics, which took the form, in some economies, of massive boom-bust cycles. We investigate real estate shocks as a potential source of sectoral reallocations through a collateral mechanism. These shocks turn out to be a strong driver of productivity divergence between European countries. |
| Keywords: | Productivity;Sectoral Reallocations |
| JEL: | D22 F45 R30 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-09&r=all |