nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2019‒09‒30
eight papers chosen by
Fulvio Castellacci
Universitetet i Oslo

  1. World Innovation:Evidence from 100 years of Patent Data By Enrico Berkes; Kristina Manysheva; Marti Mestieri
  2. Testing the Employment Impact of Automation, Robots and AI: A Survey and Some Methodological Issues By Barbieri, Laura; Mussida, Chiara; Piva, Mariacristina; Vivarelli, Marco
  3. Knowledge searching strategies, testing for complementarities on the innovation behavior of the firm By Alejandro Bello-Pintado; Felipe Berrutti; Carlos Bianchi; Pablo Blanchard
  4. Patent-Based News Shocks By Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo; Vukotic, Marija
  5. The China Shock and Portuguese Manufacturing By Lee Branstetter; Ana Venancio; Brian Kovak
  6. Digitization and knowledge spillover effectiveness: Evidence from the "German Mittelstand" By Proeger, Till; Runst, Petrik
  7. Demand-Driven Labor-Market Polarization By Diego Comin; Ana Danieli; Marti Mestieri
  8. World Productivity: 1996-2014 By Mehrdad Esfahani; Bart Hobijn; John Fernald

  1. By: Enrico Berkes (The Ohio State University); Kristina Manysheva (Northwestern University); Marti Mestieri (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: We document the evolution of innovation patterns over the last 100 years for over 75 countries as measured by patent filings in these countries. We document how innova- tion has shifted across fields, from mechanical engineering in the beginning of the XXth century, to chemistry and physics in the mid-century, medicine and the digital economy. We also document how different countries have contributed to these shifts at different points in time and how innovation correlates across countries and across fields. Finally, we use the cross-country, cross-sectoral citation patterns to document knowledge link- ages in the innovation process. We leverage on these country-sector linkages to construct an instrument for innovation and assess the impact of innovation on sectoral productiv- ity, absolute and comparative advantage.
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Barbieri, Laura (Università Cattolica di Piacenza); Mussida, Chiara (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Piva, Mariacristina (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vivarelli, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
    Abstract: The present technological revolution, characterized by the pervasive and growing presence of robots, automation, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, is going to transform societies and economic systems. However, this is not the first technological revolution humankind has been facing, but it is probably the very first one with such an accelerated diffusion pace involving all the industrial sectors. Studying its mechanisms and consequences (will the world turn into a jobless society or not?), mainly considering the labor market dynamics, is a crucial matter. This paper aims at providing an updated picture of main empirical evidence on the relationship between new technologies and employment both in terms of overall consequences on the number of employees, tasks required, and wage/inequality effect.
    Keywords: technology, innovation, employment, skill, task, routine
    JEL: O33
    Date: 2019–09
  3. By: Alejandro Bello-Pintado (Universidad Pública de Navarra (España)); Felipe Berrutti (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a); Carlos Bianchi (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a); Pablo Blanchard (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a)
    Abstract: According to two basic building blocks of neo-Schumpeterian economics, firms innovation process shows idiosyncratic features related to their specific characteristics of the firm and of the environment where it acts. Moreover, firms innovation is recognized as an interactive process. Hence, due to systemic functioning, it is expected that the effect of two simultaneous external linkages will be different from the sum of their isolated effects. However, the external search for knowledge and information sources (KISs) may present constraints related to the searching costs and the cognitive distance between the firm and the KISs. This paper aims to contribute empirical evidence to revisit these theoretical building blocks by analyzing the search strategies conducted by firms. We identify three types of external KISs and analyze the effects of eight search strategies (KIS combinations) on firms innovation behavior. In addition, we test the complementarity or substitution effects of the simultaneous use of different KISs on the innovation behavior – effort and performance – of Uruguayan firms. We identify the specific effect of different KIS combinations but find no evidence of a linear relation between search scope and innovation behavior. Moreover, we find evidence of complementary effects between relatively closer and more distant KISs and substitution effects between relatively near KISs.
    Keywords: information sources, search strategy, complementarity, supermodularity
    JEL: D22 D83 L25 O32
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo (Federal Reserve Board); Vukotic, Marija (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: In this paper we exploit firm-level data on patent grants and subsequent reactions of their stocks to identify technological news shocks. Changes in stock market valuations due to announcements of individual patent grants represent expected future increases in the technology level, which we refer to as patent-based news shocks. Our patent-based news shocks resemble diffusion news in that they do not affect total factor productivity in the short-run but account for about 20 percent of its variations after five years. These shocks induce positive comovement between consumption, output, investment and hours. Unlike the existing empirical evidence, patent-based news shocks generate a positive response in inflation and the federal funds rate, in line with a standard New Keynesian model. Patenting activity in electronic and electrical equipment industries within the manufacturing sector and computer programming and data processing services within the services sector play a crucial role in driving our results.
    Keywords: News Shocks ; Patents ; Patent-based news shocks
    JEL: E3 E32 L60
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Lee Branstetter (Carnegie Mellon University); Ana Venancio (ISEG (Lisbon School of Economics and Business), Universidade de Lisboa); Brian Kovak (Carnegie Mellon University)
    Abstract: In a widely cited series of papers, David Autor, Gordon Hanson, David Dorn, and their coauthors have documented the surprisingly strong effect of increased competition from Chinese exports on U.S. employment, political polarization, and even R&D spending and innovation (Autor et al., 2013; Autor et al., 2016a, b). China's exports to Western Europe have also grown sharply in recent decades. A number of papers have sought to follow Autor et al. (2013) in exploring the impact of these exports on European labor markets. The chief finding of this paper is that the nature of the impact of the China shock in Portugal and the mechanism through which it operates are quite different than that highlighted by Autor et al. (2013). We strongly suspect our findings for Portugal reflect economic realities common to other Southern European countries.
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Proeger, Till; Runst, Petrik
    Abstract: The Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship (KSTE) considers determinants of knowledge diffusion as well as their impact on entrepreneurial activities and growth. Extending the KSTE, the role of incumbent firms for the broad diffusion of new knowledge has been emphasized. For those firms, the barriers to an effective flow of information are considered using the concepts of knowledge filters and absorptive capacities. Both concepts enable the derivation of institutional measures to penetrate knowledge filters and systematically increase absorptive capacities. We interpret the process of digitization as a central process of knowledge spillover in recent years and determine digitization-related knowledge filters for particular domains of firm decision-making. Using a consultant-based in-depth evaluation of 200 SMEs conducted in the context of a federal innovation program, structural drivers, firm clusters and domain-specific knowledge filters for digitization are determined. We find little evidence for structural drivers of knowledge spillover effectiveness. However, as firms are clustered according to their digitization pattern, we show that firms realize high degrees of digitization in most domains or in none, leading us to argue that domain-specific knowledge filters are weak. Rather, knowledge spillover in digitization can be considered a process with initially strong general knowledge filter and - once this filter has been penetrated - weaker subsequent domain-specific knowledge filters. Policy and managerial implications for increasing digitization-related knowledge spillovers in SMEs are discussed.
    Keywords: Digitization,Knowledge Filter,Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship,Small and Medium Enterprises
    JEL: D21 D82 H41 K23 L14
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Diego Comin (Dartmouth College); Ana Danieli (Northwestern University); Marti Mestieri (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: We document that income elastic sectors are more intensive in high- and low-skill oc-cupations than income inelastic sectors, which are relatively more middle-skill intensive.As a result, increases in aggregate expenditure have an asymmetric effect on labor demandacross occupations and cause labor-market polarization. We quantify the importance of thisdemand-driven labor market polarization for the US using a general equilibrium modelwith endogenous job assignment and nonhomothetic demand. Our model is calibrated toaggregate variables from 1980 and household-level estimates of sectoral income elasticity.We find that the increase in aggregate expenditure from 1980 to 2016 accounts for 50% of theincrease in the wage bill share of high-skill occupations, 60% of the decline for medium-skilloccupations and virtually all of the increase in the wage bill share of low-skill occupations.This mechanism is also quantiatively important to understand the evolution of labor marketoutcomes across occupations in the period 1950-1980 and in other developed economies.
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Mehrdad Esfahani (Arizona State University); Bart Hobijn (Arizona State University); John Fernald (INSEAD/FRBSF)
    Abstract: We account for the sources of world GDP growth using data for 40 major economies and 36 industries from the World Input-Output Database from 1996 to 2014. We nd that the contribution of productivity growth at the country-industry level to world GDP growth is relatively constant and that the recent productivity slowdown in industrialized countries is largely oset, at the world level, by productivity growth in emerging economies. Most of the fluctuations in world productivity growth are the result of shifts in the distribution of employment across countries and industries. This shift in employment to countries with lower average labor productivity and wages is a drag on the growth of aggregate productivity in the world. Using new data on PPP-based value-added measures by country and industry, we show that about a third of this shift, however, seems to reect employment growing in countries, most notably China and India, and industries that benet from an international cost advantage in terms of deviations from PPP.
    Date: 2019

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