nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2018‒05‒28
ten papers chosen by
Fulvio Castellacci
Universitetet i Oslo

  1. Have R&D Spillovers Changed? By Nick Bloom; Brian Lucking; John Van Reenen
  2. A Man is Known by the Company He Keeps? : A Structural Relationship Between Backward Citation and Forward Citation of Patents By Junbyoung Oh; Wonchang Hur
  3. Obstacles to innovation and external sourcing of knowledge: Evidence for German and Spanish firms By Mery Patricia Tamayo; Estefanía Gómez; Elena Huergo
  4. Data-Driven Investment Decision-Making: Applying Moore's Law and S-Curves to Business Strategies By Christopher L. Benson; Christopher L. Magee
  5. What more can we learn from R&D alliances? : A review and research agenda By Martinez-Noya, Andrea; Narula, Rajneesh
  6. The green flings: market fluctuations and incumbent energy industries’ engagement in renewable energy By Tuukka Mäkitie; Håkon E. Normann; Taran M. Thune; Jakoba Sraml Gonzalez
  7. Directed Technological Change and Technological Congruence: A New Framework for the Smart Specialization Strategy. By Antonelli, Cristiano; Feder, Christophe; Quatraro, Francesco
  8. Structural Change, Trade and Global Production Networks By Michael Landesmann; Roman Stöllinger
  9. Skill Requirements across Firms and Labor Markets: Evidence from Job Postings for Professionals By Deming, David; Kahn, Lisa B.
  10. Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies By McMillan, Margaret; Rodrik, Dani; Sepulveda, Claudia

  1. By: Nick Bloom; Brian Lucking; John Van Reenen
    Abstract: This paper revisits the results of Bloom, Schankerman, and Van Reenen (2013) examining the impact of R&D on the performance of US firms, especially through spillovers. We extend their analysis to include an additional 15 years of data through 2015, and update the measures of firms' interactions in technology space and product market space. We show that the magnitude of R&D spillovers appears to have been broadly similar in the second decade of the 21st Century as it was in the mid-1980s. However, there does seem to have been some increase in the wedge between marginal social returns to R&D and marginal private returns with the ratio of marginal social to private returns increasing to a factor of 4 from 3. There is certainly no evidence that the need to subsidize R&D has diminished. Positive spillovers appeared to increase in the 1995-2004 boom.
    Keywords: innovation, RD, patents, productivity and spillovers
    JEL: O31 O32 O33 F23
    Date: 2018–05
  2. By: Junbyoung Oh (Department of Economics, Inha University); Wonchang Hur (College of Business Administration, Inha University)
    Abstract: Inventing is a recombinant process that involves searching and recombining differ- ent streams of knowledge. The value of invention is associated with not only how many prior inventions are considered, but also how they are related to each other. We introduce social network analysis broadly used in the social capital theory, and extend the dimension of analysis for the evaluation of patent value. This study em- ploys U.S. pharmaceutical patent data and investigates whether the network charac- teristic of backward citations have significant effect on the future patent value. The empirical results suggest that the network features of backward citations measured by cohesion, constraint, and efficiency have statistically significant implication on the value of invention in both level and depreciation rate. The study also provides empirical evidence that the exploration strategy is more significantly and positively correlated with the future value of invention compared to the exploitation strategy of inventors.
    Keywords: Patent value, Social network analysis, Network structure of backward citation
    JEL: H23 O31 O38
    Date: 2018–05
  3. By: Mery Patricia Tamayo; Estefanía Gómez; Elena Huergo
    Abstract: The goal of this research is to empirically study the relationship between obstacles perceived by companies to carrying out their innovation activities and their decisions about external sourcing of knowledge through the outsourcing of R&D or technological cooperation. Using information on German and Spanish companies from the year 2010, we obtain that in both countries this association is positive, and that companies that assign greater importance to factors that impede their innovation activities are also more likely to engage in external sourcing of knowledge. This relationship seems to be especially strong in companies that do not engage in internal R&D activities or do so sporadically, while it is much weaker in companies that perform internal R&D continuously. Nonetheless, the importance that companies assign to the market power of established companies as a barrier to innovation is positively associated with technological cooperation especially in continuous R&D performers.
    Keywords: Obstacles to innovation, outsourcing, technological cooperation
    JEL: L2 O3 O57
    Date: 2018–05–16
  4. By: Christopher L. Benson; Christopher L. Magee
    Abstract: This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates (i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions applied to the time dependence of performance for other technologies. The prior work has culminated with methodology for quantitative estimation of technological improvement rates for nearly any technology. This paper examines the implications of such regular time dependence for performance upon the timing of key events in the technological adoption process. We propose a simple crossover point in performance which is based upon the technological improvement rates and current level differences for target and replacement technologies. The timing for the cross-over is hypothesized as corresponding to the first 'knee'? in the technology adoption "S-curve" and signals when the market for a given technology will start to be rewarding for innovators. This is also when potential entrants are likely to intensely experiment with product-market fit and when the competition to achieve a dominant design begins. This conceptual framework is then back-tested by examining two technological changes brought about by the internet, namely music and video transmission. The uncertainty analysis around the cases highlight opportunities for organizations to reduce future technological uncertainty. Overall, the results from the case studies support the reliability and utility of the conceptual framework in strategic business decision-making with the caveat that while technical uncertainty is reduced, it is not eliminated.
    Date: 2018–05
  5. By: Martinez-Noya, Andrea (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Oviedo); Narula, Rajneesh (Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: R&D cooperation has become a core aspect of the innovation strategy of R&D-performing organisations over the last three decades. Globalisation has increased the imperative to organise these cross-border, inter-firm agreements efficiently, and this has led to a cross-fertilisation of ideas from a variety of fields, including international business, management, geography and, more recently, psychology. The aim of this paper is to review and synthesise this literature to identify new directions for research. The breadth of the academic discussion has evolved towards a general consensus on governance choice decisions, motives for collaboration, partner selection decisions and performance implications. Despite having achieved some degree of clarity on these issues, the growing complexity and international nature of these alliances requires a multidisciplinary approach, both in relation to the theories to apply, as well as in the type of data needed.
    Keywords: R&D alliances, technological cooperation, strategic technology partnering, literature review, research agenda
    JEL: O32 L24
    Date: 2018–05–09
  6. By: Tuukka Mäkitie (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, UiO.); Håkon E. Normann (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, UiO.); Taran M. Thune (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, UiO.); Jakoba Sraml Gonzalez (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, UiO.)
    Abstract: Reorientation of fossil fuel industries towards renewable energies, and the role of market changes underlying such processes, have not featured strongly in the study of sustainable energy transitions. We contribute to this important policy issue with a case study of diversification of Norwegian oil and gas industry in offshore wind power. We study how the engagement in diversification has changed during 2007-2016, and whether these changes correspond with developments in the industry’s task and institutional environments. By using news, statistical and survey data, our study reveals that despite continuous growth in offshore wind market, the industry engaged more in offshore wind during two market downturn periods in the oil and gas market, and less during an oil and gas boom period. Our results therefore draw attention to the importance of market changes in reorientation of fossil fuel industries towards renewable energies. We conclude by discussing the role of market changes in influencing reorientations towards renewable energies, and implications of results for policies which seek to support sustainable energy transitions.
    Date: 2018–05
  7. By: Antonelli, Cristiano; Feder, Christophe; Quatraro, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Technological congruence implements the analysis of directed technological change showing how the match between the relative size of outputs’ elasticity and the relative abundance and cost of production factors has powerful effects on total factor productivity (TFP). Smart specialization strategies can rely upon technological congruence to support the introduction and diffusion of new directed technologies characterized by the best mix of factors relative cost -as determined by pecuniary externalities in the regional factor markets- and output elasticity. The evidence of 278 European regions in the years 1980-2011 confirms that the levels and the changes in technological congruence, brought about by the introduction of directed technological changes, have significant effects on the levels and the changes of TFP. The key policy implication is that the optimal S3 policy mix should not only look at the history of local industrial or technological specializations, but it should also take into account the pecuniary externalities that characterize local factor markets to promote technological changes directed to augmenting the output elasticity of the cheaper regional production factors.
    Date: 2018–04
  8. By: Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: An ‘Appropriate Industrial Policy’ for Peripheral and Catching-up Economies The global economy has been undergoing rapid structural change the impressive development processes in a range of emerging economies have induced strong shifts in global trade shares; international production networks (IPNs) are characterising regional and global trading relationships and we observe also persistent changes in the positions of countries in global value chains due to rather rapid technological and human capital upgrading. The aim of this paper is to assess these developments, but also discuss the importance of – what we call – ‘appropriate industrial policy’ (AIP) for countries at different developmental stages to support their position in the current global context. We emphasise in particular the role of AIP for European low- and medium-income economies (LMIEs) as the recent financial and economic crisis has shown that they are particularly vulnerable with respect to ‘structural external imbalances’ and thus policies to support their tradable sectors are of great importance.
    Keywords: appropriate industrial policy, structural change, structural upgrading, Emerging Europe, emerging economies, international production networks, global value chains, catching up, industrial policy and industrial organisation
    JEL: L16 L52 F15 F14
    Date: 2018–05
  9. By: Deming, David (Harvard University); Kahn, Lisa B. (Yale University)
    Abstract: We study variation in skill demands for professionals across firms and labor markets. We categorize a wide range of keywords found in job ads into ten general skills. There is substantial variation in these skill requirements, even within narrowly defined occupations. Focusing particularly on cognitive and social skills, we find positive correlations between each skill and external measures of pay and firm performance. We also find evidence of a cognitive social-skill complementarity for both outcomes. As a whole, the job skills have explanatory power in pay and firm performance regressions, beyond what is available in widely-used labor market data
    JEL: F01 F16
    Date: 2017–04
  10. By: McMillan, Margaret (Tufts University); Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University); Sepulveda, Claudia (World Bank)
    Abstract: Developing countries made considerable gains during the first decade of the 21st century. Their economies grew at unprecedented rates, resulting in large reductions in extreme poverty and a significant expansion of the middle class. But more recently that progress has slowed with an economic environment of lackluster global trade, not enough jobs coupled with skills mismatches, continued globalization and technological change, greater income inequality, unprecedented population aging in richer countries, and youth bulges in the poorer ones. This essay examines how seven key countries fared from 1990-2010 in their development quest. The sample includes seven developing countries--Botswana, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia, India, Vietnam and Brazil--all of which experienced rapid growth in recent years, but for different reasons. The patterns of growth are analyzed in each of these countries using a unifying framework which draws a distinction between the "structural transformation" and "fundamentals" challenge in growth. Out of these seven countries, the traditional path to rapid growth of export oriented industrialization only played a significant role in Vietnam.
    JEL: O11
    Date: 2017–05

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