nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2017‒06‒04
fourteen papers chosen by
Fulvio Castellacci
Universitetet i Oslo

  1. Demand pull instruments and the development of wind power in Europe: A counter-factual analysis By Marc Baudry; Clément Bonnet
  2. Assessing the effect of public funding on private innovation investment in Uruguay By Felipe Berrutti; Carlos Bianchi
  3. The Impact of Digital Financial Services on Firm's Performance: a Literature Review By Tariq Abbasi; Hans Weigand
  4. The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network By Grant, Everett; Yung, Julieta
  5. Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights By Lucia S. Foster; Cheryl A. Grim; John Haltiwanger; Zoltan Wolf
  6. Does Military Spending Matter for Long Run Growth? By Giorgio d'Agostino; J. Paul Dunne; Luca Pieroni
  7. Endogenous Recombinant Growth and Intellectual Property Rights By Marchese, Carla; Marsiglio, Simone; Privileggi, Fabio; Ramello, Giovanni B.
  8. Trade, Education, Governance and Distance: Impact on Technology Diffusion and Productivity Growth in Asia and LAC By Schiff, Maurice; Wang, Yanling
  9. Manufacturing productivity in China: Deconstructing the role of Agglomeration By Chen, Yang; He, Ming; Rudkin, Simon
  10. Competition, Uncertainty, and Misallocation By HOSONO Kaoru; TAKIZAWA Miho; YAMANOUCHI Kenta
  11. Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a Survey By Morikawa, Masayuki
  12. The empirics of enabling investment and innovation in renewable energy By Géraldine Ang; Pralhad Burli; Dirk Röttgers
  13. Fostering innovative business investment in Spain By David Haugh; Muge Adalet McGowan; Dan Andrews; Aida Caldera Sánchez; Gabor Fulop; Pilar Garcia Perea
  14. Local Discoveries and Technological Relatedness: the Role of Foreign Firms By Alessia Lo Turco Author-X-Name-First: Alessia; Daniela Maggioni Author-X-Name-First: Daniela

  1. By: Marc Baudry; Clément Bonnet
    Abstract: Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies can rely on two types of approach to stimulate innovation: supply-push and demand-pull. The latter aims at creating demand for new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. Nevertheless, due to the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and to spillovers between the countries it is hard to determine whether newly installed capacities are imputable to national support policies and/or to policies implemented by neighbor countries. The paper addresses this problem. A micro-founded model of technology diffusion is developed and calibrated. It captures the influence of demand-pull policies on wind power installed capacities for six European countries over the last decade. A counter-factual analysis is carried out to assess the impact of demand-pull policies on wind power development by taking into account the interplay between national policies via spillovers.
    Keywords: Renewable energy, Technology diffusion, Demand pull instruments
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Felipe Berrutti (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Carlos Bianchi (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: Despite the recent research efforts and methodological improvements, empirical evidence on the additionality effects of public innovation programs shows heterogeneous results by firm, sector, country and type of innovation. This paper assesses input additionality of public funding on private innovative investment of Uruguayan firms by applying a longitudinal analysis from 2001 to 2012. During this period, there was a dramatic increase of public innovation funds. However, the number of innovative firms remains stable and the amount of public funding for innovation at firm level is still very low. In this context, previous innovation experience appears as the most significant determinant of access to public innovation support. Moreover, we find evidence of a moderate substitution effect between public and private funds. We analyzed heterogeneous effects according to type of innovation, finding significant effects only for innovation based on acquisition of artifacts (embodied). We conclude on the main challenges of the current policy mix in Uruguay, stressing the relevance of further research lines on behavioral additionality to contribute to improve policy results.
    Keywords: public funding; input additionality, innovation survey, Uruguay
    JEL: O3 O38 L2 H81
    Date: 2017–04
  3. By: Tariq Abbasi; Hans Weigand
    Abstract: Digital Financial Services continue to expand and replace the delivery of traditional banking services to the customers through innovative technologies to meet the growing complex needs and globalization challenges. These diversified digital products help the organizations (service providers) to improve their firm performance and to remain competitive in the market. It also assists in increasing market share to grow their profitability and improve financial position. There is a growing literature on Digital Financial Services and firm performance. At this point of the development, this paper systemically reviews the existing (within last one decade) amount of literature investigating the impact of DFS on firm performance, analyzes and identifies the research gaps. We identify 39 works that have appeared in a wide range of peer-reviewed scientific journals. We classify the methodologies and approaches that researchers have used to predict the effect of such services on the financial growth and profitability. We observe that despite rapid technological advancement in DFS during the last ten years, Digital Financial Services being the factor affecting firm performance did not get the reasonable attention in academic literature. One of the reason is that almost all the authors limit their research to banking sector while ignoring others particularly mobile network operators (providing branchless banking) and new non-banking entrants. We also notice that newer researchers often ignore past research and investigate the same issues. This study also makes several recommendations and suggest directions for future research in this still emerging field.
    Date: 2017–05
  4. By: Grant, Everett (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Yung, Julieta (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
    Abstract: We estimate global inter-firm networks across all major industries from 1981 through 2016 and provide the first empirical tests for both robust (beneficial) and fragile (harmful) network behavior, relating firms' health with global integration. More connected firms are less likely to be in distress and have higher profit growth and equity returns, but are also more exposed to direct contagion from distressed neighboring firms and network level crises. Our analysis reveals the centrality of finance in the international firm network and increased globalization, with greater potential for crises to spread globally when they do occur.
    JEL: C3 F36 F61 G15
    Date: 2017–05–01
  5. By: Lucia S. Foster; Cheryl A. Grim; John Haltiwanger; Zoltan Wolf
    Abstract: Researchers have been using a variety of methods to estimate productivity at the firm level. Absent data on prices and quantities, these methods yield what have become known as revenue productivity measures. How these measures are related to physical productivity depends on the assumptions about the environment in which establishments operate. It is perhaps less recognized that the differences across estimation methods have important consequences for interpretation. One such difference concerns revenue function estimates: while cost-share-based coefficients are, in principle, equivalent to factor elasticities, regression-based estimates equal factor elasticities only under strict assumptions about product markets. This implies that revenue residuals are conceptually different under these two broad approaches. Using plant-level manufacturing data for the U.S., we look at the empirical relevance of such distinctions in the context of key stylized facts of the productivity literature. First, we find non-trivial differences in estimated elasticities and returns to scale. The variation in elasticities affects numerical results on dispersion, yet all methods imply large productivity differences across establishments. More productive plants are shown to be more likely to grow and survive by all reviewed methods, although differences remain in the quantitative marginal effects of productivity. Reallocation is found to be comparable and productivity enhancing by all methods considered, but within-plant growth seems to be more sensitive. We find evidence that imputation and imposing homogeneous elasticities negatively affect within-industry dispersion. In addition, imputation results in some attenuation in growth and exit coe cients but does not invalidate qualitative conclusions.
    Date: 2017–01
  6. By: Giorgio d'Agostino (University of Roma Tre); J. Paul Dunne (School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Luca Pieroni (University of Perugia)
    Abstract: The effects of military spending has on the economy continues to be a subject of considerable debate, with a lack of consensus in the literature. This paper takes advantage of the SIPRI extended dataset to contribute to the debate using empirical methods made available, or more applicable, by the extra observations. It constructs a large panel of countries for the period 1970-2014 to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between military spending and economic growth, applies the more flexible Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and to compare the results with the more restrictive Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) method used in earlier influential studies. It also compares results from different time and country samples. Across the specifications it finds a significant and persistent negative effect of military burden on economic growth that is robust across different country groups, with the largest impact being for OECD countries.
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Marchese, Carla; Marsiglio, Simone; Privileggi, Fabio; Ramello, Giovanni B.
    Abstract: We show that, even in a framework in which monopolistic exploitation of patents does not occur, patents still give rise to serious drawbacks. We build on Weitzman’s (1998) recombinant growth model which provides a stylized but clear description of the formation of knowledge externalities. In our framework a benevolent government buys immediately new patents in a competitive market and releases their contents for free. We show that inefficiencies nevertheless arise and welfare can be improved by correcting the market price through a tax-subsidy scheme. We characterize the (asymptotic) steady state equilibrium, and some properties of the transitional path. We show that if certain conditions are met, then the economy will converge to its (asymptotic) balanced growth path, and along such a path growth will be independent of the policy parameter; conversely, transition dynamics are affected by the choice of the policy parameter. We then quantitatively analyze the effect of different policy interventions on welfare, and show that stricter tax (weaker appropriability) regimes lead to higher social welfare.
    Date: 2017–05
  8. By: Schiff, Maurice; Wang, Yanling
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of North-South trade, education, governance and North-South distance, on technology diffusion and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the South, focusing on LAC and East Asia over the 32 years before the Great Recession (1976-2007). Findings are: i) TFP rises with education, trade, governance (ETG) and imports’ R&D content, and falls with distance to the North; ii) an increase of LAC’s ETG to East Asia’s levels raises TFP by 165%, fully accounting for its TFP gap with East Asia; iii) the impact of the education gap equals the sum of the governance and openness gaps; and iv) South America’s loss of TFP relative to Mexico associated with its greater distance to US-Canada (both Europe and Japan) is 9.3 (0) percent.
    Keywords: Trade,Governance,Education,Distance,Technology Diffusion,Productivity growth
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Rudkin, Simon (SHU-UTS SILC Business School, University of Shanghai)
    Abstract: Economists talk of agglomeration bene ting rms but little work has sought to understand the impact various consequences of close location of rms has on productivity. Using unconditional quantile regression for the rst time in productivity we revisit the Chinese Industry Survey, from 1999 to 2007, to ask (a) how does spatial competition, local diversity, population density and regional specialisation impact across the productivity distribution, and (b) how have these effects changed through China's opening up to foreign direct investment. High productivity firms bene t more from specialist agglomerations, monopoly and can take larger advantage of market size compared to those which are less productive.
    Keywords: Unconditional Quantile Regression, Manufacturing Productivity, China, Agglomeration.
    Date: 2017–05–24
    Abstract: Uncertainty delays investment that involves disruption cost or time-to-build, resulting in capital misallocation from a static point of view. However, theory predicts that uncertainty will affect investment, and hence static misallocation, depending on the degree of product market competition. Using a large panel dataset of manufacturing plants in Japan, we find that although uncertainty results in static misallocation, the effect is weaker for industries with less severe product market competition. We further find that competition worsens uncertainty-driven misallocation through the misallocation among firms that invested in the previous year (the active margin) rather than among those that did not (the inactive margin). While competition increases the probability of investment, it increases the variability of the optimal level of capital as well, which worsens misallocation. To improve allocative efficiency, reduced uncertainty complements competition policies.
    Date: 2017–05
  11. By: Morikawa, Masayuki
    Abstract: This study, using original survey data of 10,000 individuals, analyzes the possible impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics on employment. The first interest of this study is to ascertain, from the viewpoint of workers, what types of worker characteristics are associated with the perception of risk of jobs being replaced by the development of AI and robotics. The second interest is to identify, from the viewpoint of consumers, what types of services are likely to be replaced by AI and robotics. The results suggest that malleable/adaptable high skills acquired through higher education, particularly in science and engineering, are complementary with new technologies such as AI and robotics. At the same time, occupation-specific skills acquired by attending professional schools or holding occupational licenses, particularly those related to human-intensive services, are less likely to be replaced by AI and robotics.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence,robotics,skill,household production
    JEL: J24 O33 D12
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Géraldine Ang (OECD); Pralhad Burli (Montclair State University); Dirk Röttgers (OECD)
    Abstract: This working paper undertakes econometric analysis to assess the impacts of climate mitigation policies and the quality of the investment environment on investment and innovation in renewable power in OECD and G20 countries. It also assesses how countries’ investment environments interact with climate mitigation policies to influence investment and patent activity in renewable power. The paper gathered and tested data across OECD and G20 countries on more than 70 explanatory variables, which were analysed using two Poisson-family regression models: one to investigate determinants of investment flows in renewable power from 2000 until 2014; and one to investigate determinants of patent counts in renewable-power technologies from 2000 until 2012. Results of the econometric analysis are consistent with the main hypothesis in this paper that beyond setting climate mitigation policies, policy makers need to strengthen the general investment environment and align it with climate mitigation policies in order to mobilise investment and innovation in renewable power across OECD and G20 countries.
    Keywords: climate change, climate finance, estimation, public intervention, regression
    JEL: F30 H23 L94 O3 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2017–05–31
  13. By: David Haugh (OECD); Muge Adalet McGowan (OECD); Dan Andrews (OECD); Aida Caldera Sánchez (OECD); Gabor Fulop (OECD); Pilar Garcia Perea (OECD)
    Abstract: Spain has chronically low productivity growth, which undermines its ability to generate higher living standards. Important contributors to low productivity growth are the misallocation of capital to low productivity firms and under-investment in knowledge-based capital. To foster a better allocation of capital a first priority is to better tune bank, capital market and government financing to the needs of new innovative firms. This could be done through better small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) bond and loan securitisation tools, reallocating public financing to early stage finance and making it easier for firms to access public innovation funding by shifting some funding from loans to grants for research and development (R&D) projects. Attracting more foreign capital and improving the regulatory framework to increase the return on investment would also help. This could be done by reducing regulatory barriers that hold back competition, improving the neutrality of the tax system, improving pricing signals and reforming insolvency laws.
    JEL: E22 G24 G28 O16 O38 O44 O47 O5
    Date: 2017–05–30
  14. By: Alessia Lo Turco Author-X-Name-First: Alessia; Daniela Maggioni Author-X-Name-First: Daniela
    Abstract: We explore the role of local intra and extra-regional product-specific capabilities in foster ing the introduction of new products by firms active in the Turkish manufacturing sector. We model firmsÕ product additions to their product basket as dependent on extra and intra-regional knowledge. We find that regional "discoveries", that is newly introduced products never produced before in the region, are positively and significantly affected by external related knowledge spurring from foreign firms active in the same location as well as by firm internal capabilities. Technologically related intra-regional knowledge spillovers and extra-regional knowledge spilling from imported inputs do not play a relevant role. The former, however, matter when we extend the analysis to all new products introduced by firms, regardless of their previous presence in the regional production basket. We interpret this evidence as foreign affiliates bringing new and exclusive capabilities which are missing in the region where they locate, thus providing a stimulus for regional production diversification and upgrading. This hypothesis is validated by exploring the heterogeneous role of the different intra and extra-regional knowledge sources according to productsÕ complexity. Length:
    JEL: F11 F14 D22 D80 N30
    Date: 2017–06

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