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on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | Robert C. Dent; Fatih Karahan; Benjamin Pugsley; Aysegul Sahin |
| Abstract: | The U.S. economy has been going through a striking structural transformation—the secular reallocation of employment across sectors—over the past several decades. We propose a decomposition framework to assess the contributions of various margins of firm dynamics to this shift. Using firm-level data, we find that at least 50 percent of the adjustment has been taking place along the entry margin, owing to sectors receiving shares of start-up employment that differ from their overall employment shares. The rest is mostly the result of life cycle differences across sectors. Declining overall entry has a small but growing effect of dampening structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, employment dynamics, sectoral reallocation |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:16-38&r=tid |
| By: | Elena Verdolini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici); Francesco Vona (OFCE Sciences-Po and SKEMA Business School); David Popp (Syracuse University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | The diffusion of renewable energy in the power system implies high supply variability. Lacking economically viable storage options, renewable energy integration has so far been possible thanks to the presence of fast-reacting mid-merit fossil-based technologies, which act as back-up capacity. This paper discusses the role of fossil-based power generation technologies in supporting renewable energy investments. We study the deployment of these two technologies conditional on all other drivers in 26 OECD countries between 1990 and 2013. We show that a 1% percent increase in the share of fast-reacting fossil generation capacity is associated with a 0.88% percent increase in renewable in the long run. These results are robust to various modifications in our empirical strategy, and most notably to the use of system-GMM techniques to account for the interdependence of renewable and fast-reacting fossil investment decisions. Our analysis points to the substantial indirect costs of renewable energy integration and highlights the complementarity of investments in different generation technologies for a successful decarbonization process. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy Investments, Fossil Energy Investments, Complementarity, Energy and Environmental Policy |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 Q55 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2016.51&r=tid |
| By: | Francesco Vona (OFCE-SciencesPo, Sophia Antipolis); Giovanni Marin (IRCrES-CNR, Milan); Davide Consoli (INGENIO CSIC-UPV, Valencia) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the nature and the key empirical regularities of green employment in US local labor markets between 2006 and 2014. We construct a new measure of green employment based on the task content of occupations. Descriptive analysis reveals the following: 1. the share of green employment oscillates between 2 and 3 percent, and its trend is strongly pro-cyclical; 2. green jobs yield a 4 percent wage premium; 3. despite moderate catching-up across areas, green jobs remain more geographically concentrated than similar non-green jobs; and 4. the top green areas are mostly high-tech. As regards the drivers, changes in environmental regulation are a secondary force compared to the local endowment of green knowledge and resilience in the face of the great recession. To assess the impact of moving to greener activities, we estimate that one additional green job is associated with 4.2 (2.4 in the crisis period) new jobs in non-tradable activities in the local economies. |
| Keywords: | Green Employment, Local Labor Markets, Environmental Regulation, Environmental Technologies, Local Multipliers |
| JEL: | J23 O33 Q52 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2016.48&r=tid |
| By: | Bertschek, Irene; Briglauer, Wolfgang; Hüschelrath, Kai; Kauf, Benedikt; Niebel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We provide a structured overview of the quantitative literature on the economic impacts of telecommunications networks and broadband internet. Differentiating between wireline and wireless technologies as well as broadband availability and broadband adoption, respectively, we review studies investigating the impacts on economic growth, employment and regional development as well as productivity and firm performance. Eventually, the survey does not only allow the identification of main research gaps but also provides useful information for policy makers on the significance and importance of communication networks for social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Telecommunications,Broadband,Economic Growth,Employment,Regional Development,Productivity |
| JEL: | D24 J23 J24 L96 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16056&r=tid |
| By: | Thomas Winberry (University of Chicago); Pablo Ottonello (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | It is well-documented that there is tremendous heterogeneity in firms’ productivity, investment, and hiring, implying the allocation of resources is important in determining aggregate dynamics. In this project, we measure the dynamics of the allocation of capital and labor across firms and use this measurement to understand how heterogeneity matters for aggregate business cycles. We measure the allocation of resources using the distribution of marginal products across firms. Preliminary empirical results using Compustat data suggest that the dispersion of the marginal product of capital is strongly countercyclical, while the dispersion in the marginal product of labor is acyclical, implying that models with frictions to capital adjustment are most promising for explaining the data. To discriminate between particular models, we plan to quantitatively map their predictions for the distribution in terms of informative micro-level wedges, in the spirit of Hsieh and Klenow (2009). |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:578&r=tid |
| By: | Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota); Sewon Hur (University of Pittsburgh); Kim Ruhl (New York University Stern School of Busi); Jose Asturias (Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | Using plant-level data from Chile and Korea, we find that, during episodes of rapid growth, most of the aggregate productivity growth is due to the entry and exit of firms while, during episodes of slower growth, it is mostly due to growth within and across existing firms. Studies for other countries suggest that this is an empirical regularity. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model based on Hopenhayn (1992) which incorporates the theory of economic growth proposed by Parente and Prescott (1994) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002). In this model, new firms enter every period with productivities drawn from a distribution whose mean grows over time. After entering, a firm’s productivity grows, but not as rapidly as new firms’ productivity distribution. In a version of the model calibrated to U.S. plant-level data, we simulate two sets of reforms: a decrease in new firms’ costs of entry and a reduction in the barriers to technology adoption for new firms. The model reproduces the regularity that we observe in the data, and confirm that entry and exit of firms is crucial for reforms to generate rapid growth. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:573&r=tid |
| By: | Fortier, George E. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Wen, Yi (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | China is undergoing its long-awaited industrial revolution. There is no shortage of commentary and opinion on this dramatic period, but few have attempted to provide a coherent, in-depth, political economic framework that explains the fundamental mechanisms behind China’s rapid industrialization. This article reviews the New Stage Theory of economic development put forth by Wen (2016a). It illuminates the critical sequence of developmental stages since the reforms enacted by Deng Xiaoping in 1978: namely, small-scale commercialized agricultural production, proto-industrialization in the countryside, a formal industrial revolution based on mass production of labor-intensive light consumer goods, a sustainable “industrial trinity” boom in energy/motive power/infrastructure, and a second industrial revolution involving the mass production of heavy industrial goods. This developmental sequence follows essentially the same pattern as Great Britain’s Industrial Revolution, despite sharp differences in political and institutional conditions. One of the key conclusions exemplified by China’s economic rise is that the extent of industrialization is limited by the extent of the market. One of the key strategies behind the creation and nurturing of a continually growing market in China is based on this premise: The free market is a public good that is very costly for nations to create and support. Market creation requires a powerful “mercantilist” state and the correct sequence of developmental stages; China has been successfully accomplishing its industrialization through these stages, backed by measured, targeted reforms and direct participation from its central and local governments. |
| Keywords: | China; Income Traps; Institutions; Industrial Revolution; Economic Development; Industrial Policies; Washington Consensus; Shock Therapy; New Stage Theory |
| Date: | 2016–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2016-016&r=tid |
| By: | Valero, Anna; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | We develop a new dataset using UNESCO source materials on the location of nearly 15,000 universities in about 1,500 regions across 78 countries, some dating back to the 11th Century. We estimate fixed effects models at the sub-national level between 1950 and 2010 and find that increases in the number of universities are positively associated with future growth of GDP per capita (and this relationship is robust to controlling for a host of observables, as well as unobserved regional trends). Our estimates imply that doubling the number of universities per capita is associated with 4% higher future GDP per capita. Furthermore, there appear to be positive spillover effects from universities to geographically close neighboring regions. We show that the relationship between growth and universities is not simply driven by the direct expenditures of the university, its staff and students. Part of the effect of universities on growth is mediated through an increased supply of human capital and greater innovation (although the magnitudes are not large). We find that within countries, higher historical university presence is associated with stronger pro-democratic attitudes. |
| Keywords: | growth; Human Capital; innovation; Universities |
| JEL: | I23 I25 J24 O10 O31 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11462&r=tid |