| Abstract: |
In this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply
the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely
semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two
comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry
experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles
across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly
contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines
of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models
establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the
most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle. |