nep-tid New Economics Papers
on Technology and Industrial Dynamics
Issue of 2007‒07‒27
one paper chosen by
Rui Baptista
Technical University of Lisbon

  1. Cyclical Dynamcis in Three Industries By Hao Tan; John A. Mathews

  1. By: Hao Tan; John A. Mathews
    Abstract: In this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle.
    Keywords: Industry cycle; business cycle; technology cycle; business dynamics; VAR model
    JEL: L60 L63
    Date: 2007

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