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on Technology and Industrial Dynamics |
| By: | G. Buenstorf |
| Abstract: | The paper makes the case for an empirically grounded, "bottom-up" approach to theory building in evolutionary industrial economics. This approach is based on studying systematically selected industries that are comparable in key dimensions. It opens up opportunities for testing the relevance, preconditions, and generality of explanatory factors in industry evolution. An illustration of the approach is subsequently given by presenting some findings on the evolution of the historical U.S. farm tractor industry. Length 23 pages |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:evopap:2006-23&r=tid |
| By: | Gautier Duflos (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I], CREST-LEI - [Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées]) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes American pharmaceutical firms' persistence in innovating prior to the wave of mergers and acquisitions that accompanied the "Biotech revolution". We evaluate the impact of past innovative activity on firms' innovation propensities using a non-linear GMM estimator for exponential models that allows for predetermined regressors and linear feedback. We find that innovative activity at the firm level depends strongly on the technological importance of past innovations. In particular, breakthroughs depend largely on past innovations' scope, and this effect is likely to deter further pioneering behaviors rather than strengthen incentives to invest on non cumulative R&D. The results also shed light on the importance of small firms for the technological change in pharmaceuticals, and suggest that large firms may persist in using patents strategically to retain sales. |
| Keywords: | Patent citations, pharmaceutical industry, persistence in innovation. |
| Date: | 2007–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00113499_v2&r=tid |
| By: | Nick Bloom |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions - a "caution-effect" - making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the dynamics of R&D through the business cycle, and its response to technology policy. I also show that if firms are increasing their level of R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be negative, while if firms are reducing R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be positive. |
| JEL: | D8 D92 E32 O3 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12841&r=tid |