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on Sports and Economics |
| By: | Jan van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | This study examines eight seasons of professional football matches in the English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga. The focus is on the existence of non-transitive triads in match outcomes in terms of points, the quality of performance as indicated by expected points, and the difference between the two, which reflects overperformance or underperformance. The main finding is that there are quite a few non-transitive triads in match outcomes. Surprisingly, these are related to non-transitive patterns in overperformance, but not to non-transitive patterns in quality of performance. Persistent overperformance over a long period of time is generally unlikely to occur; however, it does appear in these non-transitive triads. Circular triads of overperformance may be related to psychological effects, such as placebo or nocebo effects, whereby recent histories of encouraging or disappointing match outcomes have long-lasting consequences. |
| Keywords: | Circular triads, Football |
| JEL: | C23 D01 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260009 |
| By: | Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Expectations about future events can be influenced by prior outcomes of similar events, even when those outcomes were partly determined by chance. When such randomness is overlooked in decision-making, outcome bias may arise. This paper investigates the presence of outcome bias in consumer demand for professional football, focusing specifically on stadium attendance in the top divisions of the "big five" European football leagues. The analysis reveals that stadium occupancy rates are influenced by the outcomes of previous matches, even when those outcomes do not accurately reflect the home team’s underlying performance quality. These findings suggest that consumer demand for stadium attendance exhibits outcome bias. |
| Keywords: | utcomebias, professionalfootball, stadiumattendance |
| JEL: | C20 L83 M12 Z20 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250055 |
| By: | Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Decisions informed by past events can be distorted when outcomes partially determined by chance are misinterpreted as purely skill-based. This can lead to outcome bias, where decisions are evaluated based on results rather than the quality of the performance that produced them. Outcome bias is prevalent across domains, including managerial decision-making. This paper investigates outcome bias in professional football, a highly competitive industry. The analysis is based on managers who were replaced within-season from 2017/18 to 2024/25 in the top divisions of the five main European football leagues. The main finding is that clubs tend to change managers in response to recent match results rather than underlying performance indicators. This behavior reflects an economically inefficient decision-making process driven by outcome bias. |
| Keywords: | Outcomebias, professionalfootball, bookmakerodds, managerreplacement |
| JEL: | C20 L83 M12 Z20 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250054 |
| By: | Jan C.van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Team production is increasingly important for economic outcomes, yet the factors driving team performance remain poorly understood. This paper examines the influence of psychological factors on team performance using data from the top divisions of the five major European football leagues, with a particular focus on the phenomenon of home advantage. Home advantage has been widely studied, and research has reached a point where further progress is challenging. This study offers a modest but insightful contribution by distinguishing between goals and expected goals to separate the creation of scoring opportunities from the conversion of those chances into actual goals, which reflects individual performance. The analysis shows that home teams not only generate more scoring chances but also convert them into goals more efficiently. In the absence of a stadium crowd, home advantages in goals and expected goals are substantially reduced, and the home advantage in the conversion of expected goals into actual goals is virtually absent. These findings suggest that psychological factors can be stimulating and have a positive effect on productivity, rather than workers choking under pressure and thereby decreasing their productivity. |
| Keywords: | Home advantage, professional football, expected goals |
| JEL: | D91 L83 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260005 |
| By: | Christoph M. Flath; Fabian Kosse; Victor Klockmann; Alicia von Schenk; Nikolai Stein; Nico Elbert |
| Abstract: | The value of being a "team player" is not fixed – it depends on how work is organized. Using 1.5 million matches among 30, 459 players in temporary teams formed by quasi-random matchmaking, we measure each player's coordination ability as a stable trait distinct from solo technical skill. This "team player effect" has a standardized coefficient ratio to individual skill (TPE/SELO) of about 47% in team contests but near zero in solo play. The return to coordination is strongly context-dependent: across a team-size × task-structure grid, the TPE/SELO coefficient ratio shifts from 35% to 72% (2.1×; 1.28×–1.49× within player), driven by team scale increasing coordination demands and task interdependence attenuating the predictive power of individual skill. Teammates perceive this quality, re-selecting high-coordination partners 23% more often. These findings connect individual coordination capabilities to organization design, providing field-scale evidence for classical contingency theory's prediction that the value of coordination depends on structural context. |
| Keywords: | team performance, coordination, social skills, team player effect, familiarity, e-sports |
| JEL: | D24 L23 J24 M54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12626 |