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on Sports and Economics |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver |
| Abstract: | A series of high-profile judgments of the European Court of Justice has recently emphasized the anticompetitive character of many regulatory interventions of sports associations (like UEFA) into the sports markets they are governing. This has led to widespread calls for reforms and changes. However, given the special characteristics of sports requiring a market-internal regulator to set, implement, and enforce the common rules of the game, a somewhat neglected question is how regulatory interventions by sports associations can look like in the future in order to avoid violating competition rules. This paper develops a framework for regulatory activities by sports governing bodies (like UEFA) that stands in line even with ambitious interpretations of the judgments. It uses the Royal Antwerpen case about regulations to promote homegrown talent as an example. However, the developed framework may be applied for virtually all regulatory interventions by sports associations. |
| Keywords: | football, sports economics, sport law, governance, competition, Royal Antwerp case, homegrown talent, market-internal regulator |
| JEL: | Z20 K21 L83 J01 J08 J49 Z22 Z23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:343553 |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver; Haucap, Justus |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Wirkungen der Finanz- und Budgetregeln im europäischen Fußball in den letzten gut 15 Jahren. Es wird aufgezeigt, dass die negativen Externalitäten, welche eine solche Regulierung (sport-)ökonomisch rechtfertigen, durch die existierenden Finanzregeln auf europäischer und nationaler Ebene offenbar erfolgreich kontrolliert werden. Dazu reichen allerdings wohl bereits die mildesten und am wenigsten restriktiven der verschiedenen Regelsysteme und -elemente aus. Die wettbewerbsbeschränkenden und ökonomisch restriktiven Effekte der weitergehenden Regeln - wie der Break-Even-Regel oder Kaderkostenbegrenzungen - wären somit durch die Marktversagensproblematik nicht gerechtfertigt. Empirische Studien liefern zudem kaum Evidenz, dass sie weiterführenden Zielen (bspw. der Wettbewerbsausgeglichenheit) effektiv dienen würden. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es bedenklich, dass die DFL gerade beschlossen hat, ihre Finanzregeln zukünftig noch stärker restriktiv und spürbar invasiver auszugestalten als bisher. Insbesondere die parallele Gültigkeit einer Kaderkostenbegrenzungsregel und der Investorenbegrenzungsregel ("50plus1-Regel") wird aus sport- und wettbewerbsökonomischer Perspektive kritisch gesehen. |
| Abstract: | This article examines the effects of financial and budgetary regulations in European football over the past 15 years. It demonstrates that the negative externalities that justify such regulation from a (sports) economics perspective are apparently successfully controlled by existing financial rules at the European and national levels. However, even the mildest and least restrictive of the various rule systems and elements seem to suffice for this purpose. The competition-restricting and economically limiting effects of more far-reaching rules - such as the break-even rule or squad cost limits - would therefore not be justified by the problem of market failure. Furthermore, empirical studies provide little evidence that these rules effectively serve broader objectives (e.g., competitive balance). Against this backdrop, it is concerning that the DFL (German Football League) has just decided to make its financial rules even more restrictive and noticeably more invasive than before. In particular, the intended parallel application of a new squad cost limitation rule and the existing investor limitation rule ("50plus1 rule") must be viewed critically from a sports and competition economics perspective. |
| Keywords: | Sportökonomik, Fußball, Regulierungsökonomik, Finanzregeln, Fiskalregeln, Wettbewerb, Kaderkostenregel, 50plus1-Regel, sports economics, football, regulatory economics, financial and fiscal rules, competition, antitrust, squad cost rule, 50plus1 rule |
| JEL: | H39 K21 L40 L83 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:343551 |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Bereits seit einiger Zeit wird darüber diskutiert, ob die sog. 50plus1- Regel, mit welcher die Deutsche Fußball Liga die Ziele Vereinsprägung und Mitbestimmung im Profifußball erreichen möchte, konform zu den Wettbewerbsregeln ist oder einen wettbewerbsrechtlichen Verstoß darstellt. Dem entsprechend beschäftigt sich auch das Bundeskartellamt mit diesem Fall. Der vorliegende Beitrag fokussiert auf die Ausnahmen von der Regel und arbeitet aus (sport- und wettbewerbs-) ökonomischer Sicht heraus, dass selbst wenn man die 50plus1-Regel akzeptieren könnte, die relevanten Ausnahmen davon jedoch den Wettbewerb unbotmäßig verzerren würden. Angesichts der Zurückhaltung des Bundeskartellamts, hier mit einem formalen Beschluss zu intervenieren, untersucht der Beitrag weiterhin, welche Anreize und Möglichkeiten der Ligaverband als marktinterner Regulierer hat, die Ausnahmen wirksam und zeitnah abzuschaffen. Die ökonomische Untersuchung kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass wirksame Maßnahmen der Selbstregulierung nicht zu erwarten sind. Daher wird ein formales Eingreifen des Bundeskartellamts befürwortet. |
| Abstract: | There is an ongoing discussion about whether the so-called 50+1 rule, with which the German Football League (DFL) aims to achieve the goals of club autonomy and codetermination in professional football, complies with competition rules or constitutes a violation of competition law. Accordingly, the Federal Cartel Office is also investigating this matter. This article focuses on the exceptions to the rule and, from a (sports and competition) economic perspective, argues that even if the 50+1 rule were acceptable, the relevant exceptions would unduly distort competition. Given the Federal Cartel Office's reluctance to intervene with a formal decision, this article further examines what incentives and options the league association, as an internal market regulator, has to effectively and promptly abolish the exceptions. The economic analysis concludes that effective self-regulatory measures are not to be expected. Therefore, formal intervention by the Federal Cartel Office is advocated. |
| Keywords: | Fußball, 50plus1-Regel, Antitrust, Wettbewerbsverzerrung, interner Marktregulierer, Sportökonomik, 0plus1-rule in European football, antitrust, restrictions of competition, marketinternal regulator, sports economics |
| JEL: | K21 L40 L83 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:343550 |
| By: | Gergely Csurilla; L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o |
| Abstract: | The pre-season strengths of European football clubs are usually measured by two proxies in the literature. Football Club Elo Ratings provide strictly performance-based Elo ratings from the early days of the European Cups, while Transfermarkt valuations are crowd-based estimates of squad market values. This paper compares them by evaluating their ability to forecast the results of matches played in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League between the seasons 2020/21 and 2024/25. The two indicators yield almost identical out-of-sample accuracy when used separately. Combining the two measures leads to a modest improvement, but the best aggregation procedure is sensitive to the forecast target. Our results suggest that seeding based on Elo ratings would be (closely) optimal. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.21674 |
| By: | Marcos Cardozo; Jos\'e Ignacio Rivero-Wildemauwe |
| Abstract: | The favorite--longshot bias (FLB) is one of the most persistent return patterns in betting markets, but its prevalence in modern prediction markets and its relation to recurrent longshot demand remain unclear. We study these questions in Polymarket, a large and increasingly important prediction market, using 588 million trades by 2.48 million accounts. In observed transaction flows, purchases below 10 cents lose 19.3 cents per dollar, while purchases at or above 90 cents earn 0.83 cents. How contracts are grouped changes the result: longshots lose 6.3 cents per dollar when each contract is weighted equally but gain 4.1 cents when related contracts are first grouped by parent event; the two-sided pattern is robust in Crypto and Politics but surprisingly absent in Sports. The top decile of accounts with the strongest past tendency to buy longshots accounts for 26.6 percent of next-month low-price purchases, but earns similar returns to others. The top decile of accounts with the strongest past tendency to buy favorites accounts for 15.1 percent of next-month high-price purchases but earns less than others. These findings provide evidence of an aggregate FLB on Polymarket, but its magnitude depends on how contracts are grouped. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.12878 |
| By: | Mangelsdorf, Hannes; Rebeggiani, Luca |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the moderating role of household structure on consumption decisions and the dynamics of expenditure elasticity for leisure and sporting goods along the income curve for different household types. Using microdata from the German Income and Consumption Survey (EVS), we employ an extended econometric approach featuring a log-log specification with a quadratic income term to capture non-linearity and interaction terms to model elasticity heterogeneity for different household configurations. While OLS is used for general leisure, advanced censored-data models (Tobit, Heckman, and Hurdle specifications) are applied to sporting goods demand to separate the consumption propensity from the intensity. We confirm significant non-linear demand dynamics for both leisure and sporting goods consumption, characterized by substantially higher expenditure elasticities in lower income brackets that subsequently flatten out with rising income. We find strong household heterogeneity: the most pronounced income effect is observed in households with children, who demonstrate the strongest reaction to additional income in the lower part of the income spectrum for leisure and sporting goods expenditures. This refined approach delivers a significantly improved explanatory power for the variance in leisure and sporting goods demand modelling. |
| Keywords: | Sports consumption, Leisure expenditures, Income elasticity, Household heterogeneity, Nonlinear Engel curves, Participation and expenditure |
| JEL: | D12 Z22 C25 D13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:343549 |
| By: | Small, Meg; Dancer, Sally; Wright, Jonathan; Colaianne, Blake Anthony; Sommerville, Gillian |
| Abstract: | Team effectiveness in high-stakes, time-limited work contexts remains an underexplored area of organizational and applied psychology research. This study examined whether daily process behaviors—specifically team communication and collaboration—predict end-of-program team effectiveness outcomes in the context of an intensive, eight-week technology entrepreneurship incubator program. Participants were members of five start-up teams enrolled in the start-up program at a large research university. As part of a larger mixed-methods study, participants completed daily diary measures of team communication and collaboration using a digital platform (Metricwire) for 15 days. At program end, participants completed a post-program survey assessing team effectiveness outcomes including creativity, psychological safety, team viability, collective efficacy, authentic relationships, opportunities for growth, and program satisfaction. Simple linear regressions revealed that daily collaboration significantly predicted creativity, psychological safety, team viability, and collective efficacy. Daily communication similarly predicted creativity and psychological safety. Authentic relationships were not significantly predicted by either behavioral measure. These findings contribute to the growing literature on team process and performance by demonstrating that observable daily team behaviors capture meaningful variance in team effectiveness outcomes, Implications for team-based intervention design and digital measurement methodology are discussed. |
| Date: | 2026–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2ke9c_v1 |