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on Sports and Economics |
| By: | Davis, Kyle (University of Oklahoma); Ransom, Tyler (University of Oklahoma); Black, Christopher (University of Oklahoma); Larson, Daniel (University of Oklahoma) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the extent to which market size disparity across franchises—measured as the coefficient of variation of MSA populations—moderates the effectiveness of competitive balance interventions (CBIs) in Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Football League (NFL), the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the National Hockey League (NHL) from 1967 to 2023. Using two-way fixed effects models with multiple balance measures, we find that CBI effectiveness depends on the distribution of market sizes across league members. Jointly adopting a salary cap and floor improves competitive balance at low levels of market size disparity but is ineffective at high levels. Revenue sharing shows limited effects. Luxury taxes are associated with worsened competitive balance in high-disparity leagues. Our findings demonstrate that market size disparity not only affects competitive balance directly but also determines which interventions succeed. These results have direct relevance to recent discourse on competitive balance in MLB. |
| Keywords: | competitive balance, salary floor, salary cap, market size disparity, Major League Baseball |
| JEL: | L83 L51 C23 D63 L11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18491 |
| By: | Hirsch, Michael (RWTH Aachen University); Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the influence of air pollution, measured by particulate matter concentration (PM_10 and PM_2.5), on sabotage in rank order tournaments. To achieve this, we use player-level data from German Soccer Bundesliga players between 2009 and 2024, which we link with hourly pollution values on the exact match location and kick-off time. This research design addresses key identification problems in estimating the effect of air pollution on non-health outcomes. Our results suggest that an increase in particulate matter concentration has a statistically significant effect on destructive efforts (i.e. competitive sabotage), measured in fouls committed by a player. If particulate matter pollution measured in PM_10 (PM_2.5) increases by 10 μg/m^3, the number of fouls committed increases by 0.6% (0.9%). We also find strong evidence that this effect is driven primarily by players from weaker teams (underdogs). |
| Keywords: | air pollution, sabotage, tournaments |
| JEL: | M5 Q53 L83 J83 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18512 |
| By: | Richard Duhautois (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam], CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales); Samir Zine El Alaoui (INJEP - Institut national de la jeunesse et de l'éducation populaire, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé) |
| Abstract: | Le métier d'éducateur sportif est une profession réglementée, dont l'exercice est soumis à l'obtention d'une carte professionnelle, que l'activité soit exercée en tant que salarié ou en tant qu'indépendant. Depuis le Grenelle de l'emploi et des métiers du sport de juin 2023, les enjeux de l'emploi des éducateurs sportifs sont de plus en plus portés par les pouvoirs publics et le mouvement sportif. À partir de différentes sources de données et d'enquêtes, ce numéro de Connaissance de l'emploi propose un éclairage sur les conditions d'emploi peu favorables des éducateurs sportifs salariés, sur leurs trajectoires d'insertion professionnelle - souvent marquées par des départs vers d'autres secteurs en début ou en milieu de carrière - ainsi que sur les facteurs explicatifs des tensions récentes de recrutement. |
| Date: | 2026–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05576954 |
| By: | Jaden Zhang; Gardenia Liu; Oliver Johansson; Hileamlak Yitayew; Kamryn Ohly; Grace Li |
| Abstract: | We introduce Prediction Arena, a benchmark for evaluating AI models' predictive accuracy and decision-making by enabling them to trade autonomously on live prediction markets with real capital. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, Prediction Arena tests models in environments where trades execute on actual exchanges (Kalshi and Polymarket), providing objective ground truth that cannot be gamed or overfitted. Each model operates as an independent agent starting with $10, 000, making autonomous decisions every 15-45 minutes. Over a 57-day longitudinal evaluation (January 12 to March 9, 2026), we track two cohorts: six frontier models in live trading (Cohort 1, full period) and four next-generation models in paper trading (Cohort 2, 3-day preliminary). For Cohort 1, final Kalshi returns range from -16.0% to -30.8%. Our analysis identifies a clear performance hierarchy: initial prediction accuracy and the ability to capitalize on correct predictions are the main drivers, while research volume shows no correlation with outcomes. A striking cross-platform contrast emerges from parallel Polymarket live trading: Cohort 1 models averaged only -1.1% on Polymarket vs. -22.6% on Kalshi, with grok-4-20-checkpoint achieving a 71.4% settlement win rate - the highest across any platform or cohort. gemini-3.1-pro-preview (Cohort 2), which executed zero trades on Kalshi, achieved +6.02% on Polymarket in 3 days - the best return of any model across either cohort - demonstrating that platform design has a profound effect on which models succeed. Beyond performance, we analyze computational efficiency (token usage, cycle time), settlement accuracy, exit patterns, and market preferences, providing a comprehensive view of how frontier models behave under real financial pressure. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07355 |