| By: |
Hegarty, Tadgh;
Whelan, Karl |
| Abstract: |
The Asian Handicap is a way to bet on soccer matches where payouts depend on
an adjustment to the score that favors the weaker team. These bets are more
complex than traditional betting on soccer because they require assessing the
likely goal difference in the match rather than just the probabilities of a
home win, away win or draw and because they can feature the possibility of all
or half the bet being refunded. We show that bettors systematically lose more
money on the type of Asian Handicap bets where refunds are not possible than
they do when it is possible to obtain a half refund and that bets with the
possibility of a full refund have the lowest loss rates. Bookmakers do not
appear to adjust odds to equate the expected return on these bets. We show
that the pattern of differences in loss rates across bets is predictable based
on the odds quoted. |
| Keywords: |
Pricing Complexity, Betting Markets, Asian Handicap |
| JEL: |
G0 G02 L83 |
| Date: |
2023–05–08 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117244&r=spo |