| By: |
Pascal Flurin Meier (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich);
Raphael Flepp (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich);
Egon Franck (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: |
This paper examines whether sports betting markets are semistrong-form
efficient — i.e., whether new information is rapidly and completely
incorporated into betting prices. We use news on ghost games in the top
European football leagues due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a clean arrival of
new public information. Because spectators are absent during ghost games, the
home advantage is reduced, and we test whether this information is fully
reflected in betting prices. Our results show that bookmakers and betting
exchanges systematically overestimated a home team’s winning probability
during the first period of the ghost games, which suggests that betting
markets are, at least temporally, not semistrong-form efficient. Examining
different leagues, we find that our main results are driven by the German
Bundesliga, which was the first league to resume operations. We exploit a
betting strategy that yields a positive net payoff over more than one month. |
| Keywords: |
Sports Betting Market, Market Efficiency, Home Advantage, COVID-19 |
| JEL: |
G14 L83 Z2 |
| Date: |
2021–08 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zrh:wpaper:387&r= |