nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2021‒08‒23
four papers chosen by
Humberto Barreto
DePauw University

  1. Forecasting football matches by predicting match statistics By Wheatcroft, Edward
  2. Quantifying the intangible impact of the Olympics using subjective well-being data By Dolan, Paul; Kavetsos, Georgios; Krekel, Christian; Mavridis, Dimitris; Metcalfe, Robert; Senik, Claudia; Szymanski, Stefan; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
  3. Athletes Greatly Benefit from Participation in Sports at the College and Secondary Level By Heckman, James J.; Loughlin, Colleen P.
  4. Race to the podium: Separating and conjoining the car and driver in F1 racing By Rockerbie, Duane; Easton, Stephen

  1. By: Wheatcroft, Edward
    Abstract: This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts for the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of the match outcome could be made. Whilst, in practice, match statistics are clearly never available prior to the match, this leads to a simple philosophy. If match statistics can be predicted pre-match, and if those predictions are accurate enough, it follows that informative match forecasts can be made. Two approaches to the prediction of match statistics are demonstrated: Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings and a set of ratings based on the Bivariate Poisson model which are named Bivariate Attacking (BA) ratings. It is shown that both approaches provide a suitable methodology for predicting match statistics in advance and that they are informative enough to provide information beyond that reflected in the odds. A long term and robust gambling profit is demonstrated when the forecasts are combined with two betting strategies.
    Keywords: probability forecasting; sports forecasting; football forecasting; football predictions; soccer predictions
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2021–04–19
  2. By: Dolan, Paul; Kavetsos, Georgios; Krekel, Christian; Mavridis, Dimitris; Metcalfe, Robert; Senik, Claudia; Szymanski, Stefan; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
    Abstract: Hosting the Olympic Games costs billions of taxpayer dollars. Following a quasi-experimental setting, this paper assesses the intangible impact of the London 2012 Olympics, using a novel panel of 26,000 residents in London, Paris, and Berlin during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013. We show that hosting the Olympics increases subjective well-being of the host city's residents during the event, particularly around the times of the opening and closing ceremonies. However, we do not find much evidence for legacy effects. Estimating residents' implicit willingness-to-pay for the event, we do not find that it was worth it for London alone, but a modest well-being impact on the rest of the country would make hosting worth the costs.
    Keywords: Subjective well-being; Life satisfaction; Happiness; Intangible effects; Olympic Games; Sport events; Quasi-natural experiment
    JEL: I30 I31 I38 L83
    Date: 2019–09–01
  3. By: Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Loughlin, Colleen P. (Compass Lexecon)
    Abstract: The recent Supreme Court decision NCAA vs Alston (June 2021) has heightened interest in the benefits and costs of participation in sports for student athletes. Anecdotes about the exploitation of student athletes were cited in the opinion. This paper uses panel data for two different cohorts that follow students from high school through college and into their post-school pursuits to examine the generality of these anecdotes. On average, student athletes' benefit- often substantially so—in terms of graduation, post-collegiate employment, and earnings. Benefits in terms of social mobility for disadvantaged and minority students are substantial, contrary to the anecdotes in play in the media and in the courts.
    Keywords: sport economics, social mobility, returns to education
    JEL: Z2 I32 I26
    Date: 2021–07
  4. By: Rockerbie, Duane; Easton, Stephen
    Abstract: This paper provides a statistical estimate of the breakdown in race outcomes in Formula One races between the two most important inputs: driver skill and car technology. Financial data and racing results from the 2012-19 F1 seasons are used to estimate a combined driver and team censored regression model for each season. Treating each season uniquely allows for the exclusion of weather and track specific variables common to other statistical studies of F1 racing. Our use of financial data provides an answer to the economic question of how should F1 teams allocate their scarce financial resources. The so-called “80-20” rule distinguishing team effects and driver effects is found to be a very rough approximation to the output shares for teams and drivers. A strong complementarity exists between driver skill and car technology that distorts the rule. The return to driver salaries and team budgets are both positive in term of race outcomes, but at diminishing rates.
    Keywords: Formula one; salaries; budgets; finishes
    JEL: O3 Z0
    Date: 2021–07–30

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