nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2020‒11‒02
six papers chosen by
Humberto Barreto
DePauw University

  1. Performance Expectations of Professional Sport Teams and In-Season Head Coach Dismissals-Evidence from the English and French Men's Football First Divisions By Yvon Rocaboy; Marek Pavlik
  2. The impact of the results of football matches on the stock prices of soccer clubs By Robert Ślepaczuk; Igor Wabik
  3. Using reminders with different reward opportunities to reduce no-show behavior: Empirical evidence from a large-scale field experiment in professional sport By Dominik Schreyer; Sascha L. Schmidt; Benno Torgler
  4. Welfare Maximizing Competitive Balance: the Evidence from Top European Football leagues By Dejan Trifunovi?; Vito Pipitone
  5. Estimation of final standings in football competitions with premature ending: the case of COVID-19 By Paolo Gorgi; Siem Jan Koopman; Rutger Lit
  6. Home advantage revisited. Did COVID level the playing fields? By Michał Krawczyk; Paweł Strawiński

  1. By: Yvon Rocaboy (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marek Pavlik
    Abstract: The goals of this paper are first to identify why professional football clubs replace their head coach and, second, to investigate the effect of coach dismissal on team performance. To do that, we propose a new method for assessing the performance expectations of professional sport teams using Monte Carlo simulation. We apply our method to the English Premier league and the French Ligue 1 football teams over the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons. We find that coach dismissal is the result of a drop in the average expected performance compared with the performance expectations at the beginning of the season. We also show that dismissing a coach may enhance performance only if the team under-performed before the dismissal. There is no obstacle to using the same method for professional teams in other sports. The method is easily reproducible and does not require much information in order to be applied.
    Keywords: coach dismissal,Monte Carlo simulation,team performance,payrolls,expectations
    Date: 2020–10–09
  2. By: Robert Ślepaczuk (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Quantitative Finance Research Group, University of Warsaw); Igor Wabik (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between sport results and stock prices of European football clubs. To show that connection, we use two econometric models. Firstly, we conduct an event study analysis around the dates of football games to look for existence of abnormal returns. Secondly, we use OLS regression to test what effect the unexpected part of the result has. Based on 2239 observations of football matches results played between 01/08/2016 and 02/03/2020, we find significant relationship between sport results and financial performance. Significant negative abnormal returns are observed around defeats and draws, while for wins the impact is unclear. Using second model, we find positive values for coefficients related to unexpected number of points, which can be an additional evidence of a link between football results and stock prices. Finally, we see the potential for systematic trading strategy on soccer stocks based on the presented results. Such algo strategy with market neutral characteristic should beat the market regardless of market conditions.
    Keywords: soccer stock returns, event study analysis, algorithmic investment strategies, market neutral strategy, sports efficiency
    JEL: C4 C14 C45 C53 C58 G13
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Dominik Schreyer; Sascha L. Schmidt; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: Because no-show behavior typically leads to operational inefficiencies and thus diminishing returns for service firms, a growing number of authors have demonstrated the potential of using reminders to reduce no-show rates. In this study, by examining the behavioral responses of 13,911 season ticket holders of a professional football team in Germany, we assess whether reminders containing different reward opportunities reduce no-show behavior in professional sports. According to the results of our large-scale field experiment, the reminders have only a short-term effect that operates most effectively through a monetary gift reward with no persistent behavioral change in subsequent games. As regards individual characteristics, spectators who attended the stadium more infrequently during the season under study, who had front row seats, or had seated rather than standing arrangements were also more likely to respond to the treatment.
    Keywords: attendance; field experiment; no-shows; probabilistic rewards; reminders
    JEL: C93 D12 L83 R22 Z20
    Date: 2020–10
  4. By: Dejan Trifunovi? (Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade); Vito Pipitone (CNR & LUMSA University)
    Abstract: In this paper we consider the pattern of competitive balance and the share of gate receipts in the top 5 European football leagues and the Scottish Premier League. Based on empirically identified preferences of fans in these leagues from different studies, we aim to identify whether the change of competitive balance moves the league towards or away from the welfare maximizing competitive balance. We have identified the reduction of competitive balance in Serie A and the English Premier League (EPL) in the seasons 2010/11-2018/19. In Serie A, this change of competitive balance does not reduce welfare, while it reduces welfare in EPL. There is also the reduction of competitive balance in Ligue 1, that does not make stadium fans worse off, but possibly reduces the surplus of media fans. In the other considered leagues, there is no trend of competitive balance, and we can only identify welfare consequences of the change of competitive balance in some sub-periods.
    Keywords: Football leagues, competitive balance, fan preferences, welfare maximization
    JEL: L83
  5. By: Paolo Gorgi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Rutger Lit (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: We study an alternative approach to determine the final league table in football competitions with a premature ending. For several countries, a premature ending of the 2019/2020 football season has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a model-based method as a possible alternative to the use of the incomplete standings to determine the final table. This method measures the performance of the teams in the matches of the season that have been played and predicts the remaining non-played matches through a paired-comparison model. The main advantage of the method compared to the incomplete standings is that it takes account of the bias in the performance measure due to the schedule of the matches in a season. Therefore, the resulting ranking of the teams based on our proposed method can be regarded as more fair in this respect. A forecasting study based on historical data of seven of the main European competitions is used to validate the method. The empirical results suggest that the model-based approach produces more accurate predictions of the true final standings than those based on the incomplete standings.
    Keywords: Bivariate Poisson, COVID-19, paired-comparison models, sport statistics
    JEL: C32
    Date: 2020–10–13
  6. By: Michał Krawczyk (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Paweł Strawiński (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic swept fans out of the stadiums, but matches continued to be played in most major leagues. We make use of this natural experiment to investigate if home-field advantage disappears when the home team is not supported by the audience. Focusing on four top European soccer leagues, we find such an effect in the Bundesliga only. We propose this singularity may be related to the special role that the fan associations play in German football.
    Keywords: soccer, home-field advantage, COVID-19, fans
    JEL: Z2 I19
    Date: 2020

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